Naive-Motel — Polymarket

Realized P&L (30d)

-$4.14K

Unrealized P&L

+$28

Hit rate

81.8%

Resolved (30d)

363

Trades (30d)

556

5,068 lifetime

Volume (30d)

$149.1K

$476.3K lifetime

Avg / trade

$94

Open exposure

$281

1 position

First seen

2026-02-19

last 11-07 20:35

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 201 days

Categories

Other

95% 68% -$9,849

Crypto

5% 73% -$182

Sports

1% 58% -$490

Politics

0% 56% -$221

Tech

0% 0% -$100

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

80 active days in 12wk • peak 49 trades/day

Open positions (1) Resolved markets (30) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-11-07?	Yes		+281	$253	100¢	$281	+$28	11-07 20:35

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Counter-Strike: 9z vs Team Falcons (BO3) - Thunderpick World Championship Group A	3	$6.2K	3,676	3,676	+0	Team Falcons	+$1,099	10-15 14:28
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs MOUZ - Map 2 Winner	6	$6.2K	3,316	3,316	+0	MOUZ	+$395	10-05 16:17
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team - Map 1 Winner	2	$6.2K	3,269	3,269	+0	Team Falcons	+$324	10-17 17:46
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs MOUZ - Map 1 Winner	5	$5.5K	2,928	2,928	+0	MOUZ	+$348	10-05 15:06
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-10-17?	2	$5.0K	2,595	2,595	+0	Yes	+$154	10-17 13:56
Counter-Strike: 9z vs Natus Vincere (BO3) - ESL Pro League Group Stage	2	$4.7K	2,535	2,535	+0	Natus Vincere	+$378	10-05 14:05
cs2 shin g2 2026 10 05 game2	2	$4.2K	2,408	2,408	+0	G2	+$583	10-05 10:47
Counter-Strike: 9z vs Natus Vincere - Map 1 Winner	5	$4.2K	2,170	2,170	+0	Natus Vincere	+$177	10-05 13:04
cs2 eye gl1 2026 10 17	4	$3.8K	2,449	2,449	+0	EYEBALLERS	+$1,071	10-17 13:49
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Vitality (BO3) - ESL Pro League Playoffs	6	$3.8K	2,110	2,110	+0	Vitality	+$224	10-10 16:49
cs2 ts7 prv 2026 10 04	4	$3.7K	1,950	1,950	+0	Spirit	+$193	10-04 12:18
cs2 vit navi 2026 10 04 game1	3	$3.7K	1,992	1,992	+0	Vitality	+$305	10-04 17:15
Counter-Strike: G2 vs PARIVISION - Map 2 Winner	3	$3.7K	2,187	2,187	+0	G2	+$700	10-06 14:01
cs2 fal2 aur1 2026 10 04 game1	6	$3.7K	1,916	1,916	+0	Team Falcons	+$171	10-04 12:59
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team - Map 2 Winner	2	$3.2K	4,358	0	+4,358	BetBoom Team	-$3,225	10-17 17:47
cs2 ts7 prv 2026 10 04 game2	2	$3.1K	1,764	1,764	+0	Spirit	+$404	10-04 10:57
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner	8	$3.1K	3,530	0	+3,530	Vitality	+$424	10-05 17:52
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Vitality - Map 2 Winner	4	$3.0K	1,577	1,577	+0	Vitality	+$140	10-10 15:40
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs ShindeN - Map 2 Winner	2	$2.9K	1,550	1,550	+0	Spirit	+$215	10-03 14:14
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs Liquid - Map 1 Winner	3	$2.7K	1,570	1,353	+217	MOUZ	-$7	10-24 10:11
cs2 furia mouz 2026 10 04 game2	4	$2.6K	1,391	1,391	-0	MOUZ	+$165	10-04 15:59
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs TheMongolz - Map 2 Winner	2	$2.6K	1,367	1,367	+0	TheMongolz	+$174	10-24 09:11
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs 1WIN - Map 2 Winner	3	$2.5K	1,344	1,344	+0	Vitality	+$161	10-03 13:04
cs2 fal2 ts7 2026 10 09 game1	6	$2.5K	1,357	1,357	+0	Spirit	+$189	10-09 17:57
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Natus Vincere - Map 1 Winner	2	$2.4K	1,314	1,314	+0	Natus Vincere	+$196	10-07 15:24
cs2 mibr 100t 2026 10 17	2	$2.4K	1,419	1,419	+0	MIBR	+$405	10-17 13:11
cs2 furia mouz 2026 10 04	2	$2.3K	1,318	1,318	+0	MOUZ	+$317	10-04 15:59
Counter-Strike: G2 vs PARIVISION (BO3) - ESL Pro League Group Stage	2	$2.2K	3,754	0	+3,754	PARIVISION	-$2,232	10-06 14:01
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs TYLOO - Map 2 Winner	2	$2.1K	1,199	1,199	+0	FUT Esports	+$298	10-24 08:57
cs2 eye gl1 2026 10 17 game1	2	$2.1K	1,096	1,096	+0	GamerLegion	+$95	10-17 12:10

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
11-07 20:35:15	Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-11-07?	Yes	BUY	281	90¢	$253	0x47da68…
11-07 19:28:46	Will Nottingham Forest FC win on 2026-11-07?	Yes	SELL	254	100¢	$254	0x46bb44…
11-07 18:21:37	Will Nottingham Forest FC win on 2026-11-07?	Yes	BUY	254	72¢	$183	0x082e51…
11-07 17:56:19	Rolex Paris Masters: Casper Ruud vs Carlos Alcaraz	Carlos Alcaraz	SELL	186	100¢	$186	0x4744c4…
11-07 17:02:24	Rolex Paris Masters: Casper Ruud vs Carlos Alcaraz	Carlos Alcaraz	BUY	186	92¢	$171	0x2648a9…
11-07 17:00:24	Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-11-07?	Yes	SELL	172	100¢	$172	0xe7e766…
11-07 16:34:37	Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-11-07?	Yes	BUY	172	93¢	$160	0x65ee6f…
11-07 16:28:06	Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-11-07?	Yes	SELL	161	100¢	$160	0x7f7dfb…
11-07 14:08:36	Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-11-07?	Yes	BUY	161	79¢	$127	0x7bfdd6…
11-07 14:05:58	Counter-Strike: Lunacy Team vs maybe - Map 1 Winner	Lunacy Team	SELL	128	100¢	$128	0xa48c6a…
11-07 11:54:28	Counter-Strike: Lunacy Team vs maybe - Map 1 Winner	Lunacy Team	BUY	128	83¢	$106	0x8706a6…
11-07 11:39:16	Counter-Strike: Johnny Speeds vs Drama eSports (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Play-In Group D	Johnny Speeds	BUY	242	65¢	$157	0x5506fc…
11-07 11:37:18	Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Beijing Playoffs	MOUZ	SELL	160	100¢	$160	0xa5973b…
11-07 09:50:46	Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Beijing Playoffs	MOUZ	BUY	160	66¢	$106	0xc16328…
11-07 07:51:31	Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Natus Vincere - Map 2 Winner	Natus Vincere	BUY	354	63¢	$223	0x1dbc0c…
11-07 07:04:27	Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Natus Vincere - Map 1 Winner	Natus Vincere	BUY	256	39¢	$100	0xfd5896…
11-06 18:40:22	Rolex Paris Masters: Taylor Fritz vs Carlos Alcaraz	Carlos Alcaraz	BUY	135	74¢	$100	0x267df2…
11-06 18:33:54	Counter-Strike: Drama eSports vs Ryvex - Map 2 Winner	Ryvex	SELL	296	100¢	$296	0x6ca1ba…
11-06 16:54:58	Counter-Strike: Drama eSports vs Ryvex - Map 2 Winner	Ryvex	BUY	296	92¢	$272	0xd60f3b…
11-06 16:40:09	Counter-Strike: Drama eSports vs Ryvex - Map 1 Winner	Drama eSports	SELL	274	100¢	$273	0xbd470b…
11-06 16:05:00	Counter-Strike: Drama eSports vs Ryvex - Map 1 Winner	Drama eSports	BUY	274	83¢	$228	0x1ed624…
11-06 15:27:03	Counter-Strike: Sökerorg vs MASONIC (BO3) - CCT Europe Closed Qualifier: Series Group C	Sökerorg	SELL	230	100¢	$230	0x23fc01…
11-06 14:27:28	Counter-Strike: Sökerorg vs MASONIC (BO3) - CCT Europe Closed Qualifier: Series Group C	Sökerorg	BUY	230	77¢	$177	0x7e2978…
11-06 13:43:45	Counter-Strike: FURIA vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Beijing Playoffs	FURIA	BUY	175	57¢	$100	0xc8a16d…
11-06 13:00:16	Counter-Strike: FURIA vs BetBoom Team - Map 2 Winner	FURIA	SELL	281	100¢	$281	0x59dc5f…
11-06 12:37:04	Counter-Strike: FURIA vs BetBoom Team - Map 2 Winner	FURIA	BUY	281	65¢	$183	0xf9665a…
11-06 11:46:21	Counter-Strike: FURIA vs BetBoom Team - Map 1 Winner	BetBoom Team	SELL	187	100¢	$187	0x6341e5…
11-06 11:33:55	Counter-Strike: FURIA vs BetBoom Team - Map 1 Winner	BetBoom Team	BUY	187	88¢	$164	0x82ae69…
11-06 10:17:42	Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Natus Vincere (BO3) - IEM Beijing Playoffs	Natus Vincere	SELL	165	100¢	$165	0xa0b06e…
11-06 08:57:42	Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Natus Vincere (BO3) - IEM Beijing Playoffs	Natus Vincere	BUY	165	64¢	$106	0x6f3cbe…
11-06 08:24:54	Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Natus Vincere - Map 2 Winner	PARIVISION	BUY	359	76¢	$273	0x6518c7…
11-06 07:43:13	Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Natus Vincere - Map 1 Winner	PARIVISION	SELL	277	100¢	$276	0xcfd221…
11-06 07:08:43	Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Natus Vincere - Map 1 Winner	PARIVISION	BUY	277	84¢	$232	0x4d58a3…
11-05 19:17:50	Will Juventus FC win on 2026-11-05?	Yes	BUY	233	45¢	$105	0xda7ac0…
11-05 18:16:46	Will AC Milan win on 2026-11-05?	Yes	BUY	194	54¢	$105	0x35e985…
11-05 17:44:22	Counter-Strike: GenOne vs Brute (BO3) - Exort Fiesta Playoffs	GenOne	BUY	270	83¢	$224	0x036998…
11-05 17:32:36	Counter-Strike: FORZE Reload vs G2 Ares - Map 2 Winner	FORZE Reload	SELL	226	100¢	$225	0xee45dc…
11-05 17:14:10	Counter-Strike: FORZE Reload vs G2 Ares - Map 2 Winner	FORZE Reload	BUY	226	77¢	$173	0xd4aeee…
11-05 16:37:52	Counter-Strike: FORZE Reload vs G2 Ares - Map 1 Winner	FORZE Reload	SELL	175	100¢	$175	0x6fd72d…
11-05 16:05:54	Counter-Strike: FORZE Reload vs G2 Ares - Map 1 Winner	FORZE Reload	BUY	175	74¢	$130	0x8bb0fd…
11-05 15:15:57	Will Mohun Bagan Super Giant vs. Odisha FC end in a draw?	Yes	BUY	156	31¢	$48	0xb92f6e…
11-05 14:51:28	Counter-Strike: INOX Division vs Honvéd (BO3) - Exort Fiesta Playoffs	INOX Division	BUY	101	85¢	$86	0x3157c3…
11-05 13:28:57	Counter-Strike: Fire Flux Esports vs ILLYRIANS - Map 2 Winner	Fire Flux Esports	BUY	132	76¢	$100	0xe99c60…
11-05 11:45:18	Counter-Strike: BakS eSports vs Honvéd (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Play-In Group C	BakS eSports	BUY	97	90¢	$87	0x73c954…
11-05 11:45:15	Counter-Strike: BakS eSports vs Honvéd (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Play-In Group C	BakS eSports	BUY	10	90¢	$9	0xf279a1…
11-05 11:45:06	Counter-Strike: BakS eSports vs Honvéd (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Play-In Group C	BakS eSports	BUY	10	90¢	$9	0x0dd54e…
11-05 11:34:33	Counter-Strike: GenOne vs maybe (BO3) - CCT Europe Group Stage	maybe	BUY	120	83¢	$100	0x802717…
11-04 20:44:48	Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-11-04?	Yes	BUY	203	75¢	$152	0xfde5e4…
11-04 17:22:45	Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-11-04?	Yes	BUY	154	83¢	$128	0x13d8d7…
11-04 17:22:06	Counter-Strike: PRIVATE vs Dark Moon (BO3) - Exort Fiesta Playoffs	Dark Moon	SELL	29	99¢	$29	0x1fd2dc…
11-04 17:21:48	Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from November 2 to November 4, 2026?	Yes	SELL	100	100¢	$100	0x2275e1…
11-04 13:42:25	Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from November 2 to November 4, 2026?	Yes	BUY	89	89¢	$80	0x16a3c0…
11-04 13:24:51	Counter-Strike: PRIVATE vs Dark Moon (BO3) - Exort Fiesta Playoffs	Dark Moon	BUY	29	34¢	$10	0xb5dc5d…
11-04 13:17:43	Counter-Strike: megoshort vs Honvéd - Map 2 Winner	megoshort	BUY	13	78¢	$10	0x386fb6…
11-04 13:17:09	Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from November 2 to November 4, 2026?	Yes	BUY	11	90¢	$10	0x2f50f0…
11-04 13:16:48	Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Beijing Group A	Natus Vincere	SELL	111	100¢	$111	0xfb1d2a…
11-04 12:45:09	Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Beijing Group A	Natus Vincere	BUY	111	98¢	$108	0x987fd6…
11-04 12:08:42	Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Beijing Group A	FURIA	BUY	212	67¢	$142	0x07da9a…
11-04 12:08:10	Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner	Natus Vincere	SELL	145	100¢	$145	0x937992…
11-04 11:43:16	Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner	Natus Vincere	BUY	145	74¢	$107	0x64f0be…
11-04 11:12:58	Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs FURIA - Map 2 Winner	FURIA	BUY	307	34¢	$104	0x61ea93…
11-04 10:30:07	Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner	Natus Vincere	BUY	317	33¢	$105	0x78fecb…
11-04 10:03:21	Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs FURIA - Map 1 Winner	TheMongolz	BUY	420	25¢	$105	0x593ad0…
11-04 09:10:58	Counter-Strike: Liquid vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Beijing Group B	Liquid	BUY	787	53¢	$421	0xf4e14d…
11-04 08:42:49	Counter-Strike: Liquid vs BetBoom Team - Map 2 Winner	BetBoom Team	BUY	596	74¢	$444	0xb5ff41…
11-04 08:42:22	Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs PARIVISION - Map 2 Winner	MOUZ	SELL	450	100¢	$450	0xb00351…
11-04 07:40:31	Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs PARIVISION - Map 2 Winner	MOUZ	BUY	450	78¢	$351	0xee408d…
11-04 07:29:42	Counter-Strike: Liquid vs BetBoom Team - Map 1 Winner	Liquid	BUY	385	26¢	$100	0x8ad5ab…
11-04 05:35:15	Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Beijing Group A	Natus Vincere	BUY	115	87¢	$100	0x2255a2…
11-04 05:34:46	Counter-Strike: Heroic vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Beijing Group A	Team Falcons	BUY	114	88¢	$100	0xf970ff…
11-03 19:47:03	Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-11-03?	Yes	BUY	104	48¢	$50	0x76a917…
11-03 19:46:52	Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-11-03?	Yes	BUY	132	76¢	$100	0x654206…
11-03 19:46:46	Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-11-03?	Yes	BUY	179	56¢	$100	0x234a1b…
11-03 14:38:24	Counter-Strike: Falcons Force vs maybe (BO3) - European Pro League Series 10 Closed Qualifier Play-In	maybe	BUY	270	71¢	$193	0x083e7e…
11-03 13:40:55	Counter-Strike: Legacy vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Beijing Group A	B8	BUY	195	82¢	$160	0x1bca55…
11-03 13:40:01	Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Natus Vincere (BO3) - IEM Beijing Group A	FURIA	SELL	162	100¢	$162	0x4b0c89…
11-03 13:14:15	Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Natus Vincere (BO3) - IEM Beijing Group A	FURIA	BUY	162	74¢	$120	0x30a5ec…
11-03 13:03:34	Counter-Strike: Legacy vs B8 - Map 2 Winner	Legacy	SELL	122	100¢	$121	0x50b240…
11-03 12:38:33	Counter-Strike: Legacy vs B8 - Map 2 Winner	Legacy	BUY	122	88¢	$107	0x4ff0f3…
11-03 11:55:18	Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Natus Vincere - Map 2 Winner	Natus Vincere	BUY	269	75¢	$202	0xca1da4…
11-03 11:52:45	Counter-Strike: Legacy vs B8 - Map 1 Winner	B8	SELL	205	100¢	$204	0x94d2d0…
11-03 11:17:48	Counter-Strike: Legacy vs B8 - Map 1 Winner	B8	BUY	205	60¢	$123	0xed9c7e…
11-03 11:17:10	Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Natus Vincere - Map 1 Winner	Natus Vincere	SELL	126	100¢	$126	0x1487f0…
11-03 10:39:45	Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Natus Vincere - Map 1 Winner	Natus Vincere	BUY	126	85¢	$107	0x40e52c…
11-03 09:38:58	Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Heroic - Map 2 Winner	Heroic	BUY	181	58¢	$105	0x79fc58…
11-03 09:23:58	Counter-Strike: FaZe vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Beijing Group A	FaZe	BUY	159	67¢	$107	0xec7fe2…
11-03 08:43:28	Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Heroic - Map 1 Winner	Heroic	BUY	365	41¢	$150	0xcdd8c6…
11-03 08:17:55	Counter-Strike: FaZe vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner	Team Falcons	BUY	161	62¢	$100	0xcfb17d…
11-03 07:51:39	Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs BetBoom Team - Map 2 Winner	MOUZ	SELL	257	100¢	$257	0x8290a0…
11-03 06:52:03	Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs BetBoom Team - Map 2 Winner	MOUZ	BUY	116	60¢	$70	0x8f6aee…
11-03 06:44:57	Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs BetBoom Team - Map 2 Winner	MOUZ	BUY	141	71¢	$100	0x403c95…
11-03 06:44:07	Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs BetBoom Team - Map 1 Winner	MOUZ	SELL	170	100¢	$170	0xd90096…
11-03 06:31:06	Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs BetBoom Team - Map 1 Winner	MOUZ	BUY	170	94¢	$160	0x233146…
11-03 06:30:40	Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs 9z - Map 2 Winner	TYLOO	SELL	162	100¢	$162	0x0b5c40…
11-03 06:07:45	Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs 9z - Map 2 Winner	TYLOO	BUY	162	62¢	$100	0xae74b4…
11-02 16:40:42	Counter-Strike: HAVU vs Nordic Valor (BO3) - Elisa Open Suomi Group Stage	HAVU	BUY	93	94¢	$88	0xe81da5…
11-02 14:13:58	Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from October 31 to November 2, 2026?	Yes	BUY	65	15¢	$10	0x96ef82…
10-31 09:45:09	Counter-Strike: Nemiga vs FURIA (BO5) - PGL Masters Bucharest Playoffs	Nemiga	BUY	257	28¢	$72	0x8c3eb4…
10-31 09:19:54	Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ - Map 2 Winner	Vitality	BUY	286	35¢	$100	0x43a1b1…
10-31 08:02:18	Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ - Map 1 Winner	MOUZ	BUY	178	50¢	$89	0x9f92e1…