Strong-Fail — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$12

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

100.0%

Resolved

Trades

1,683

lifetime

Volume

$57.5K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$34

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-01-02

last 08-12 08:02

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 3 days

Categories

Politics

55% 100% +$4

Other

41% 100% +$7

Tech

3% — —

Sports

0% — —

Crypto

0% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

58 active days in 12wk • peak 16 trades/day

Open positions Resolved markets Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
will l minh hng be the next prime minister of vietnam	71	$2.3K	1,370	1,230	+140	open	—	04-05 08:55
will trn lu quang be the next prime minister of vietnam	51	$1.8K	941	967	-27	open	—	04-05 08:09
will to lam be elected general secretary of the vietnamese communist party	45	$1.7K	928	894	+34	open	—	01-22 10:20
gc hit 5500 high jan 2026	44	$1.4K	1,061	930	+131	open	—	01-30 10:43
Will Trump visit China by April 30?	50	$1.4K	1,109	1,139	-30	open	—	03-25 12:13
will iran strike turkey in march	39	$1.3K	758	775	-17	open	—	03-27 20:02
will the us invade iran by march 31	46	$1.3K	755	725	+30	open	—	03-27 17:56
will trump talk to xi jinping in march 165	46	$1.2K	740	789	-50	open	—	04-01 03:46
Will Trump visit China by May 31?	38	$1.2K	780	680	+100	open	—	05-12 13:10
khamenei out as supreme leader of iran by february 28	27	$1.1K	770	790	-20	open	—	03-02 14:41
si hit 120 high jan 2026 313 822 269	24	$1.1K	830	720	+110	open	—	01-26 16:39
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	38	$966	970	570	+400	open	—	06-01 02:35
Will US withdraw from NATO by April 30?	25	$961	520	460	+60	open	—	04-22 06:36
iran x israelus conflict ends by march 31	21	$951	530	490	+40	open	—	03-27 01:13
houthi strike on israel by march 31 2026	26	$928	588	608	-20	open	—	04-03 06:45
Will SpaceX IPO by May 31, 2026?	30	$863	375	545	-170	open	—	05-11 08:29
us strikes iran by february 27 2026	13	$702	407	314	+93	open	—	02-28 07:10
will the iranian regime fall by march 31	20	$685	392	392	+0	open	—	03-10 09:45
will anthropic have the best ai model at the end of february 2026	26	$638	420	460	-40	open	—	02-28 11:17
Will Sanae Takaichi be the Prime Minister of Japan as a result of the 2026 snap election?	2	$599	300	300	+0	open	—	02-16 09:40
Will Apple release AirTag 2 by June 30?	6	$591	300	300	+0	open	—	01-26 15:44
us x iran permanent peace deal by june 15 2026 734 856 129	18	$577	379	290	+89	open	—	06-14 13:35
Will Trump visit China by June 30?	12	$570	350	331	+19	open	—	05-13 00:33
us x iran ceasefire by april 7	11	$524	410	410	+0	open	—	04-07 23:22
Gustavo Petro out as leader of Colombia by June 30?	13	$502	300	240	+60	open	—	06-30 19:28
houthi strike on israel by april 15 2026	15	$476	450	200	+250	open	—	04-04 17:38
will israels ben gurion airport reopen by march 15 611 421	15	$475	345	270	+75	open	—	03-08 07:56
will google have the best ai model at the end of february 2026	13	$456	440	240	+200	open	—	02-19 16:23
us x iran ceasefire by april 15	15	$425	330	330	+0	open	—	04-07 23:14
houthi strike on israel by march 6 2026	8	$417	214	214	+0	open	—	03-08 07:20

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
08-12 08:02:06	Lee Jae-myung out as president of South Korea in 2026?	No	BUY	50	90¢	$45	0x3ef4fb…
08-10 17:43:01	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by august 31 20260702154212320	No	SELL	65	97¢	$63	0xe01981…
08-10 15:12:54	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	Yes	BUY	80	46¢	$37	0xc1b324…
08-07 04:26:43	will super typhoon dolphin hit china 20260730202351925	Yes	BUY	40	95¢	$38	0x5d1db5…
08-07 04:12:27	will super typhoon dolphin hit china 20260730202351925	Yes	BUY	100	96¢	$96	0xee28ed…
08-07 04:12:16	will super typhoon dolphin hit china 20260730202351925	Yes	BUY	5	95¢	$5	0x8b7325…
08-04 11:52:50	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	Yes	SELL	60	60¢	$36	0x4bdee3…
08-03 06:44:30	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	No	SELL	100	100¢	$100	0x41e40e…
08-02 02:12:33	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by august 31 20260702154212320	No	BUY	70	88¢	$62	0x6c4d8b…
08-02 02:06:11	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by september 30 20260702154339440	No	BUY	60	78¢	$47	0x3b54e3…
08-01 14:01:53	Lee Jae-myung out as president of South Korea in 2026?	No	BUY	50	90¢	$45	0x0d8fa3…
08-01 09:00:30	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by september 30 20260702154339440	No	BUY	40	85¢	$34	0x01fc65…
08-01 08:59:00	Lee Jae-myung out as president of South Korea in 2026?	No	BUY	30	91¢	$27	0xeabddf…
07-30 00:34:26	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by september 30 20260702154339440	No	SELL	75	82¢	$61	0x3fed99…
07-28 01:16:36	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by september 30 20260702154339440	No	BUY	9	73¢	$6	0xa84fce…
07-27 23:54:52	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by september 30 20260702154339440	No	BUY	31	73¢	$23	0x75df2d…
07-27 23:53:25	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by september 30 20260702154339440	No	BUY	10	73¢	$8	0x146463…
07-23 07:21:45	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	No	BUY	50	99¢	$49	0xa1f196…
07-20 11:47:19	China x Philippines military clash before 2027?	No	BUY	50	63¢	$32	0x61b530…
07-20 10:52:06	China x Philippines military clash before 2027?	No	BUY	30	75¢	$22	0x4a6d05…
07-19 18:19:33	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by august 31 20260702154212320	No	BUY	50	88¢	$44	0x8fa501…
07-18 21:49:15	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by august 31 20260702154212320	No	SELL	22	90¢	$20	0x1743d7…
07-18 21:46:37	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by august 31 20260702154212320	No	SELL	48	90¢	$43	0x0199c9…
07-10 19:38:11	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by august 31 20260702154212320	No	BUY	60	80¢	$48	0xa7f1c7…
07-09 07:16:20	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by august 31 20260702154212320	No	BUY	18	83¢	$15	0x216134…
07-09 06:50:37	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by august 31 20260702154212320	No	BUY	22	83¢	$18	0x9ccffd…
07-08 17:08:50	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	No	BUY	50	95¢	$48	0x7b6299…
07-08 10:24:43	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by september 30 20260702154339440	No	BUY	50	69¢	$34	0x71ca5c…
07-08 10:22:47	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by august 31 20260702154212320	No	BUY	40	81¢	$32	0x15c7a9…
07-07 15:01:26	president trump to attend world cup final 20260608152749044	Yes	BUY	40	91¢	$36	0x016488…
07-07 06:32:08	president trump to attend world cup final 20260608152749044	Yes	BUY	19	92¢	$17	0xd93464…
07-07 06:31:11	president trump to attend world cup final 20260608152749044	Yes	BUY	41	92¢	$38	0x736337…
07-07 06:11:31	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	Yes	BUY	50	59¢	$30	0x0b39f2…
07-05 02:17:44	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	Yes	BUY	40	77¢	$31	0x0da0dc…
07-03 02:11:29	Lee Jae-myung out as president of South Korea in 2026?	No	SELL	50	94¢	$47	0xf7d3f1…
07-02 16:31:05	Lee Jae-myung out as president of South Korea in 2026?	No	SELL	40	91¢	$37	0xd1d15a…
07-02 16:30:59	Lee Jae-myung out as president of South Korea in 2026?	No	SELL	20	91¢	$18	0x65caac…
07-02 11:43:01	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by july 15	No	SELL	60	92¢	$55	0x5b41a8…
07-01 23:54:14	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	No	SELL	100	100¢	$100	0x0735c6…
07-01 14:00:59	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by july 15	No	BUY	60	83¢	$50	0x656e89…
06-30 19:28:32	Gustavo Petro out as leader of Colombia by June 30?	No	BUY	60	91¢	$55	0xcd585f…
06-28 15:08:41	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	No	BUY	0	99¢	$0	0x0865d8…
06-28 15:08:37	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	No	BUY	100	99¢	$99	0xb4fce6…
06-28 05:41:43	Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by June 30?	No	SELL	11	100¢	$11	0x3c13b0…
06-28 04:35:43	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	Yes	BUY	50	79¢	$40	0x926a04…
06-28 02:40:56	Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by June 30?	No	SELL	29	100¢	$29	0xa2a3eb…
06-28 00:35:49	Gustavo Petro out as leader of Colombia by June 30?	No	SELL	10	100¢	$10	0x9a3c2f…
06-27 22:18:05	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	Yes	BUY	30	85¢	$26	0xb0d33e…
06-27 10:05:44	Lee Jae-myung out as president of South Korea in 2026?	No	BUY	50	85¢	$43	0xadb843…
06-26 17:19:55	Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by June 30?	No	SELL	40	99¢	$40	0xfddfd7…
06-25 01:59:14	Xi Jinping out before 2027?	No	BUY	40	93¢	$37	0xcff054…
06-24 03:55:26	Xi Jinping out before 2027?	No	BUY	20	93¢	$19	0x0e675a…
06-24 03:51:46	Xi Jinping out before 2027?	No	BUY	40	93¢	$37	0x4e2567…
06-24 01:28:38	Xi Jinping out before 2027?	No	BUY	30	94¢	$28	0x92bb2f…
06-23 23:32:32	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	Yes	BUY	20	87¢	$17	0x7394a5…
06-22 23:59:40	Lee Jae-myung out as president of South Korea in 2026?	No	BUY	60	85¢	$51	0xf4fec5…
06-22 10:20:14	Starmer out by December 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	40	100¢	$40	0xa334b0…
06-22 06:39:49	starmer out by july 31 2026	No	SELL	100	3¢	$3	0x615893…
06-22 06:39:26	Starmer out by June 30, 2026?	No	SELL	100	11¢	$11	0xe43663…
06-22 05:31:46	Starmer out by June 30, 2026?	No	SELL	50	15¢	$8	0x3abc86…
06-18 14:40:10	Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by June 30?	No	BUY	50	94¢	$47	0xdfd5b1…
06-18 09:10:40	starmer out by july 31 2026	No	BUY	50	46¢	$23	0xb5410a…
06-18 09:10:40	Starmer out by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	50	70¢	$35	0x8d3f0f…
06-18 07:30:02	Starmer out by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	50	77¢	$38	0x26bdee…
06-18 07:08:05	Starmer out by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	25	80¢	$20	0x890604…
06-18 06:40:11	Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by June 30?	No	BUY	50	96¢	$48	0xe6399d…
06-18 06:40:10	Starmer out by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	25	80¢	$20	0x4485f4…
06-18 05:54:05	Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by June 30?	No	BUY	30	96¢	$29	0x05f6d6…
06-18 05:53:44	Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by June 30?	No	BUY	10	96¢	$9	0x5f5394…
06-18 05:43:37	starmer out by july 31 2026	No	BUY	50	49¢	$24	0xa45bea…
06-18 05:42:13	Starmer out by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	20	81¢	$16	0x83fc52…
06-17 16:21:16	will trump agree to unfreeze iranian assets by june 30	Yes	BUY	50	84¢	$42	0xa74a13…
06-17 09:37:59	will trump agree to unfreeze iranian assets by june 30	Yes	BUY	30	86¢	$26	0x5042ea…
06-17 03:11:28	will trump agree to unfreeze iranian assets by june 30	Yes	BUY	40	87¢	$35	0xe8e15d…
06-16 11:33:03	China x Philippines military clash before 2027?	No	SELL	50	82¢	$41	0xda3eed…
06-15 21:23:21	Gustavo Petro out as leader of Colombia by June 30?	No	SELL	100	97¢	$97	0xc0dd82…
06-15 08:29:13	US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	55	98¢	$54	0xf05189…
06-15 06:37:39	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	Yes	BUY	30	85¢	$26	0x378f12…
06-15 02:56:00	US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?	No	SELL	10	7¢	$1	0xbd1971…
06-14 21:41:15	will jd vance attend the g7 summit	No	SELL	50	100¢	$50	0x99bd9e…
06-14 17:33:04	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	No	SELL	40	85¢	$34	0xd824e5…
06-14 13:35:33	us x iran permanent peace deal by june 15 2026 734 856 129	No	BUY	50	86¢	$43	0x08709d…
06-14 13:13:42	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	No	SELL	40	83¢	$33	0xbbc269…
06-14 12:56:19	us x iran permanent peace deal by june 15 2026 734 856 129	No	SELL	40	91¢	$36	0xf5a4b6…
06-14 12:38:58	us x iran permanent peace deal by june 15 2026 734 856 129	No	SELL	40	87¢	$35	0x244696…
06-13 23:47:00	will jd vance attend the g7 summit	No	SELL	50	99¢	$49	0x519fbf…
06-13 20:26:12	China x Philippines military clash before 2027?	No	SELL	40	81¢	$32	0x6af7e0…
06-13 16:46:19	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	No	BUY	60	76¢	$46	0x14c1ea…
06-13 13:00:24	us x iran permanent peace deal by june 15 2026 734 856 129	No	SELL	40	86¢	$34	0xe806be…
06-13 12:24:25	China x Philippines military clash before 2027?	No	SELL	20	80¢	$16	0x076177…
06-13 12:01:49	us x iran permanent peace deal by june 15 2026 734 856 129	No	BUY	41	74¢	$31	0xd0b3d6…
06-13 06:42:18	US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	50	80¢	$40	0xb94e82…
06-12 13:52:43	Gustavo Petro out as leader of Colombia by June 30?	No	SELL	50	94¢	$47	0x6d3227…
06-12 13:14:18	US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?	No	SELL	30	64¢	$19	0xca5e95…
06-12 12:49:21	US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?	No	SELL	30	61¢	$18	0xd87fd4…
06-12 09:31:54	will jd vance attend the g7 summit	No	BUY	50	90¢	$45	0x27be9c…
06-12 09:18:18	us x iran permanent peace deal by june 15 2026 734 856 129	No	BUY	60	85¢	$51	0xdbf8d5…
06-12 07:21:03	israel closes its airspace by june 15 687	No	SELL	30	96¢	$29	0x6f3f86…
06-12 03:32:52	us x iran permanent peace deal by june 15 2026 734 856 129	No	SELL	40	89¢	$36	0xccd774…
06-12 03:10:31	US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?	No	SELL	40	67¢	$27	0x79212e…