Strong-Fail — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$3

Unrealized P&L

+$3

Hit rate

39.0%

Resolved

Trades

lifetime

Volume

$390

lifetime

Avg / trade

$43

Open exposure

$176

4 positions

First seen

2026-05-07

last 05-14 13:49

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 2 days

Categories

Other

60% 50% +$3

Politics

40% 0% $-0

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

4 active days in 12wk • peak 4 trades/day

Market	Outcome	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Starmer out by May 15, 2026?	No	+80	$75	97¢	$78	+$2	05-11 10:42
Will Trump and Xi kiss at their summit?	No	+50	$50	100¢	$50	+$0	05-14 03:30
Will Trump and Xi handshake last 10–15 seconds during the day of their next meeting in 2026?	Yes	+30	$29	98¢	$29	+$0	05-14 13:49
Will Trump and Putin meet next in China?	No	+20	$19	97¢	$19	$-0	05-13 00:36

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
05-14 13:49:17	Will Trump and Xi handshake last 10–15 seconds during the day of their next meeting in 2026?	Yes	BUY	30	96¢	$29	0xbbc13f…
05-14 03:30:59	Will Trump and Xi kiss at their summit?	No	BUY	50	100¢	$50	0x334bd0…
05-14 03:25:33	Will Scott Bessent attend Trump’s Xi summit?	Yes	SELL	60	100¢	$60	0x21cb89…
05-14 03:16:03	Will Trump and Xi not shake hands during the day of their next meeting in 2026?	No	SELL	60	100¢	$60	0xffc4e6…
05-13 00:36:31	Will Trump and Putin meet next in China?	No	BUY	20	97¢	$19	0xd6ec56…
05-11 10:42:31	Starmer out by May 15, 2026?	No	BUY	80	94¢	$75	0x4ceaa0…
05-11 10:41:10	Will Marco Rubio visit China by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	30	96¢	$29	0x5d575f…
05-11 10:21:53	Will Marco Rubio visit China by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	50	96¢	$48	0x5ea65a…
05-07 05:03:45	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?	No	SELL	20	100¢	$20	0xd0d093…

Wallet	Shared markets	Overlap volume	Overlap trades	Last seen
Ripe-Cake 0xeec5…b6fe	4	$2.33K	6	05-14 02:05
Unnatural-Energy 0xac6a…2ed3	4	$562	6	05-14 02:45
Glass-Diet 0xd49b…bdf9	3	$822	25	05-14 15:59
Wise-Keyboard 0x27ab…e521	3	$803	70	05-14 03:59

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Will Marco Rubio visit China by December 31, 2026?	2	$77	80	0	+80	Yes	+$3	05-11 10:41
Starmer out by May 15, 2026?	1	$75	80	0	+80	open	—	05-11 10:42
Will Trump and Xi not shake hands during the day of their next meeting in 2026?	1	$60	0	60	-60	No	$-0	05-14 03:16
Will Scott Bessent attend Trump’s Xi summit?	1	$60	0	60	-60	Yes	$-0	05-14 03:25
Will Trump and Xi kiss at their summit?	1	$50	50	0	+50	open	—	05-14 03:30
Will Trump and Xi handshake last 10–15 seconds during the day of their next meeting in 2026?	1	$29	30	0	+30	open	—	05-14 13:49
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?	1	$20	0	20	-20	open	—	05-07 05:03
Will Trump and Putin meet next in China?	1	$19	20	0	+20	open	—	05-13 00:36