Wee-Patio — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$2.62K

Unrealized P&L

-$296

Hit rate

68.0%

Resolved

442

Trades

4,176

lifetime

Volume

$164.4K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$39

Open exposure

$270

15 positions

First seen

2026-03-16

last 10-28 16:01

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 121 days

Categories

Other

56% 35% -$31

Politics

43% 42% +$2,623

Sports

0% 50% +$35

Crypto

0% 0% -$7

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

70 active days in 12wk • peak 67 trades/day

Open positions (15) Resolved markets (30) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the December 2026 meeting?	Yes	+416	$105	29¢	$119	+$14	10-22 17:21
Will Gadi Eizenkot be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	Yes	+150	$88	33¢	$49	-$38	10-08 16:27
Alexandre de Moraes out as Brazil Supreme Court Justice?	No	-25	-$22	95¢	$-24	-$1	04-28 22:14
Will Russia invade another country in 2026?	Yes	+500	$38	4¢	$22	-$15	09-18 23:50
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by November 30, 2026?	Yes	+200	$18	10¢	$19	+$1	09-28 16:36
Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?	Yes	-20	-$10	72¢	$-14	-$4	04-30 18:05
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the December 2026 meeting?	Yes	+1,000	$7	1¢	$8	+$0	10-22 17:58
No change in Bank of England’s interest rates after November 2026 meeting?	Yes	+208	$69	2¢	$4	-$64	09-22 19:39
Bank of England increases interest rates by 25 bps after November 2026 meeting?	No	+200	$60	2¢	$4	-$56	09-18 18:22
US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026?	Yes	+100	$39	2¢	$2	-$36	09-24 16:18
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by October 31, 2026?	Yes	+673	$31	0¢	$2	-$29	09-28 16:30
Will Raphaël Glucksmann win the 2027 French presidential election?	Yes	-50	-$1	3¢	$-1	-$1	06-15 13:21
Will Gabriel Attal win the 2027 French presidential election?	Yes	-70	-$2	1¢	$-0	+$2	06-15 13:21
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by October 31?	Yes	+400	$66	0¢	$0	-$66	09-22 19:36
Will Mistral have the best AI model at the end of December 2026?	Yes	+192	$3	0¢	$0	-$2	06-16 17:06

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	123	$24.5K	33,117	32,812	+305	No	+$837	10-25 21:28
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	84	$7.9K	7,848	7,848	+0	No	+$10	05-31 22:30
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?	68	$5.5K	5,623	5,861	-238	Yes	-$503	06-14 23:02
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?	25	$4.6K	4,230	4,230	+0	Yes	+$298	10-14 12:38
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?	31	$4.1K	4,322	4,322	+0	No	+$83	10-15 12:39
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?	24	$3.6K	3,099	3,099	+0	Yes	+$89	09-16 18:05
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026?	34	$3.1K	3,620	3,620	-0	No	-$160	04-30 11:45
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	10	$3.1K	4,400	4,700	-300	Yes	-$261	10-06 12:19
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?	34	$3.1K	3,559	3,559	+0	No	-$290	09-11 13:22
Will the Bank of Brazil decrease the target for the Selic rate by 25 bps at the August meeting?	71	$3.0K	2,830	1,775	+1,054	Yes	+$409	07-29 18:07
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $115 by end of June?	91	$3.0K	2,723	2,811	-88	No	+$141	06-15 10:51
Will the Bank of Brazil decrease the Selic rate after April 2026 meeting?	45	$2.9K	1,644	1,651	-7	Yes	+$85	04-29 21:37
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?	10	$2.8K	1,861	1,861	+0	Yes	-$113	07-29 16:06
Will the Bank of Brazil decrease the Selic rate after June 2026 meeting?	31	$2.5K	1,912	1,190	+722	Yes	+$151	06-17 20:03
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026?	20	$2.5K	2,570	2,570	+0	Yes	+$406	06-15 15:52
Will the Bank of Brazil decrease the target for the Selic rate by 25 bps at the September meeting?	32	$2.4K	1,333	1,333	+0	Yes	+$159	09-15 12:04
Will the ECB announce no change at the April 2026 meeting?	67	$2.1K	2,087	2,237	-150	Yes	+$48	04-15 19:18
Will the Central Bank of Colombia make no change to the monetary policy interest rate at the September meeting?	43	$2.1K	2,130	1,968	+162	No	+$169	09-30 17:42
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of June?	45	$2.1K	1,723	2,227	-504	No	-$158	05-29 15:25
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?	12	$2.0K	1,746	1,227	+519	No	-$155	07-29 16:25
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in May?	34	$2.0K	1,647	1,647	+0	No	+$60	05-25 11:44
US x Iran permanent peace deal by August 31, 2026?	10	$1.9K	1,700	1,700	+0	Yes	+$277	06-16 10:55
Will the Bank of Canada make no change to the target for the overnight rate at the October interest rate announcement?	57	$1.9K	2,255	1,520	+735	No	-$523	10-28 13:21
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026?	15	$1.8K	1,155	1,155	+0	No	+$239	05-26 18:01
Starmer out by June 30, 2026?	25	$1.7K	1,804	1,854	-50	Yes	-$91	05-15 11:40
Will the Central Bank of Colombia announce no change at the April meeting?	48	$1.6K	1,150	1,150	+0	Yes	+$385	04-30 18:53
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15?	16	$1.4K	1,120	1,120	+0	No	+$68	07-06 02:56
Will the Bank of Korea increase the base rate after the July Meeting?	50	$1.4K	801	1,104	-303	Yes	-$43	07-10 16:12
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	18	$1.3K	1,386	1,286	+100	No	-$165	07-02 11:49
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in April?	56	$1.3K	2,027	1,985	+42	Yes	+$137	04-17 13:29

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
10-28 16:01:28	Bank of Mexico decreases interest rates by 25 bps after November 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	459	11¢	$50	0x3a8ae1…
10-28 16:01:13	Bank of Mexico decreases interest rates by 25 bps after November 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	12	10¢	$1	0x2932ba…
10-28 13:21:01	Will the Bank of Canada make no change to the target for the overnight rate at the October interest rate announcement?	Yes	BUY	15	18¢	$3	0x5d14c9…
10-28 13:20:26	Will the Bank of Canada increase the target for the overnight rate by 25 bps at the October interest rate announcement?	No	BUY	9	18¢	$2	0xad8df9…
10-28 13:20:16	Will the Bank of Canada increase the target for the overnight rate by 25 bps at the October interest rate announcement?	No	BUY	9	18¢	$2	0xf82279…
10-28 13:20:11	Will the Bank of Canada increase the target for the overnight rate by 25 bps at the October interest rate announcement?	No	BUY	9	18¢	$2	0x2ee771…
10-28 13:20:01	Will the Bank of Canada increase the target for the overnight rate by 25 bps at the October interest rate announcement?	No	BUY	9	18¢	$2	0xe0af39…
10-28 13:19:55	Will the Bank of Canada increase the target for the overnight rate by 25 bps at the October interest rate announcement?	No	BUY	9	18¢	$2	0x3f4f0e…
10-28 13:19:46	Will the Bank of Canada increase the target for the overnight rate by 25 bps at the October interest rate announcement?	No	BUY	9	18¢	$2	0xfc31a2…
10-28 13:19:38	Will the Bank of Canada increase the target for the overnight rate by 25 bps at the October interest rate announcement?	No	BUY	12	18¢	$2	0xf94821…
10-28 13:18:23	Will the Bank of Canada make no change to the target for the overnight rate at the October interest rate announcement?	Yes	BUY	118	18¢	$21	0x3c04b6…
10-28 13:18:05	Will the Bank of Canada make no change to the target for the overnight rate at the October interest rate announcement?	Yes	BUY	18	17¢	$3	0x4ea1d4…
10-28 13:17:46	Will the Bank of Canada make no change to the target for the overnight rate at the October interest rate announcement?	Yes	BUY	38	17¢	$7	0x102696…
10-28 13:17:34	Will the Bank of Canada make no change to the target for the overnight rate at the October interest rate announcement?	Yes	BUY	37	17¢	$6	0xd2ed71…
10-28 13:17:26	Will the Bank of Canada make no change to the target for the overnight rate at the October interest rate announcement?	Yes	BUY	37	17¢	$6	0xc8e0b0…
10-28 13:17:16	Will the Bank of Canada make no change to the target for the overnight rate at the October interest rate announcement?	Yes	BUY	37	17¢	$6	0xb8b47e…
10-28 13:17:10	Will the Bank of Canada make no change to the target for the overnight rate at the October interest rate announcement?	Yes	BUY	37	17¢	$6	0x700f06…
10-28 13:16:53	Will the Bank of Canada make no change to the target for the overnight rate at the October interest rate announcement?	Yes	BUY	59	16¢	$10	0x757616…
10-27 14:33:30	Will the Bank of Brazil decrease the target for the Selic rate by 25 bps at the November meeting?	Yes	BUY	100	33¢	$33	0x760ae9…
10-27 13:49:08	Will the Bank of Brazil decrease the target for the Selic rate by 25 bps at the November meeting?	Yes	BUY	200	33¢	$66	0xe37722…
10-27 13:21:20	Will Brazil’s Annual Inflation in 2026 be between 5.50% and 5.99%?	Yes	BUY	20	45¢	$9	0x984e20…
10-26 19:41:36	Will Brazil’s Annual Inflation in 2026 be between 5.50% and 5.99%?	Yes	BUY	36	35¢	$13	0xfc2c2e…
10-26 15:24:33	Will Brazil’s Annual Inflation in 2026 be between 5.50% and 5.99%?	Yes	BUY	180	26¢	$46	0x146b7a…
10-26 12:23:05	Will the Bank of Brazil make no change to the target for the Selic rate at the November meeting?	Yes	BUY	9	77¢	$7	0x4c7811…
10-26 12:22:48	Will the Bank of Brazil make no change to the target for the Selic rate at the November meeting?	Yes	BUY	36	77¢	$28	0xd778ff…
10-26 12:22:29	Will the Bank of Brazil make no change to the target for the Selic rate at the November meeting?	Yes	BUY	7	75¢	$5	0x9fee82…
10-26 12:22:29	Will the Bank of Brazil make no change to the target for the Selic rate at the November meeting?	Yes	BUY	7	75¢	$5	0x8f583f…
10-26 12:22:29	Will the Bank of Brazil make no change to the target for the Selic rate at the November meeting?	Yes	BUY	1	75¢	$1	0x147c52…
10-26 12:22:24	Will the Bank of Brazil make no change to the target for the Selic rate at the November meeting?	Yes	BUY	53	74¢	$39	0x4e43b7…
10-26 12:21:41	Will the Central Bank of Colombia make no change to the monetary policy interest rate at the October meeting?	Yes	BUY	10	51¢	$5	0xb79887…
10-25 23:34:53	Will Lula win the most votes in the second round of the Brazil presidential election from Minas Gerais?	Yes	BUY	82	72¢	$59	0xb4d49a…
10-25 23:29:00	Will Lula win the most votes in the second round of the Brazil presidential election from Minas Gerais?	Yes	BUY	92	60¢	$55	0xcd7e5b…
10-25 22:57:29	Will Lula win the most votes in the second round of the Brazil presidential election from Minas Gerais?	Yes	BUY	182	55¢	$100	0x3ee751…
10-25 22:57:06	Will Lula win the most votes in the second round of the Brazil presidential election from Minas Gerais?	Yes	BUY	143	55¢	$79	0xb25ff0…
10-25 21:28:29	Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Yes	BUY	100	66¢	$66	0xb09c6e…
10-25 21:09:59	Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Yes	BUY	85	70¢	$60	0xc65378…
10-25 20:30:30	Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the second round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by less than 4%?	Yes	SELL	142	45¢	$64	0x0b384f…
10-25 20:30:23	Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the second round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by less than 4%?	Yes	SELL	100	45¢	$45	0x6e6776…
10-25 20:30:05	Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the second round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by less than 4%?	Yes	SELL	276	47¢	$129	0x03471d…
10-25 20:29:56	Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the second round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by less than 4%?	Yes	SELL	9	46¢	$4	0x35d672…
10-25 20:29:56	Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the second round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by less than 4%?	Yes	SELL	312	46¢	$144	0x008a69…
10-25 20:28:06	Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the second round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by 4–8%?	Yes	SELL	198	12¢	$24	0xfa5b00…
10-25 20:27:56	Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the second round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by 4–8%?	Yes	SELL	292	12¢	$35	0x6b3f12…
10-25 20:26:36	Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the second round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by 4–8%?	Yes	SELL	46	16¢	$7	0x1ffcda…
10-25 20:19:17	Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Yes	SELL	250	72¢	$181	0x89700f…
10-25 17:57:09	Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Yes	SELL	500	82¢	$408	0xd1b306…
10-25 14:49:18	Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the second round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by less than 4%?	Yes	BUY	47	45¢	$21	0x9a0890…
10-25 14:49:18	Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the second round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by less than 4%?	Yes	BUY	13	45¢	$6	0x4a6633…
10-25 14:48:14	Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the second round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by less than 4%?	Yes	BUY	40	45¢	$18	0x7add21…
10-25 04:26:03	Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the second round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by less than 4%?	Yes	BUY	20	40¢	$8	0xdf025f…
10-25 04:26:03	Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the second round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by less than 4%?	Yes	BUY	7	40¢	$3	0xcbd6a0…
10-25 04:25:42	Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the second round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by less than 4%?	Yes	BUY	173	40¢	$69	0xf32283…
10-24 13:07:44	Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Yes	BUY	1,000	80¢	$803	0x52dfc3…
10-24 12:59:29	Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the second round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by less than 4%?	Yes	BUY	300	38¢	$114	0x9286c8…
10-24 12:59:23	Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the second round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by 4–8%?	Yes	BUY	400	39¢	$156	0x8cd5b9…
10-24 00:09:41	Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the second round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by less than 4%?	Yes	BUY	200	42¢	$84	0x668d5c…
10-24 00:08:54	Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	No	SELL	1,486	23¢	$334	0xa158be…
10-24 00:08:45	Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	No	SELL	580	23¢	$131	0xf0f0e4…
10-24 00:08:27	Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	No	SELL	1,300	23¢	$295	0xc45526…
10-24 00:08:12	Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	No	SELL	750	23¢	$171	0xccc0b3…
10-24 00:08:00	Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	No	SELL	200	23¢	$46	0x1b9b53…
10-22 17:58:57	Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the December 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	1,000	1¢	$7	0x852388…
10-22 17:23:02	Bank of Mexico decreases interest rates by 25 bps after November 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	29	28¢	$8	0x47521d…
10-22 17:23:02	Bank of Mexico decreases interest rates by 25 bps after November 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	31	28¢	$9	0x1f7813…
10-22 17:21:36	Will the Bank of Canada make no change to the target for the overnight rate at the October interest rate announcement?	Yes	BUY	30	18¢	$5	0xc47dce…
10-22 17:21:20	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the December 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	100	29¢	$29	0x1b16f7…
10-22 16:39:36	Will the Bank of Canada make no change to the target for the overnight rate at the October interest rate announcement?	Yes	BUY	100	18¢	$18	0x471c29…
10-22 16:39:27	Will the Bank of Canada make no change to the target for the overnight rate at the October interest rate announcement?	Yes	BUY	100	18¢	$18	0x1339ee…
10-22 16:39:26	Will the Bank of Canada make no change to the target for the overnight rate at the October interest rate announcement?	Yes	BUY	50	18¢	$9	0xc50768…
10-22 16:39:12	Will the Bank of Canada make no change to the target for the overnight rate at the October interest rate announcement?	Yes	BUY	59	17¢	$10	0xcd2387…
10-22 16:38:20	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the December 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	23	24¢	$6	0x77b04d…
10-22 16:37:59	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the December 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	293	24¢	$70	0xce0bb6…
10-22 16:20:39	Will the Central Bank of Colombia make no change to the monetary policy interest rate at the October meeting?	Yes	BUY	40	59¢	$24	0x10995e…
10-22 16:20:29	Will the Central Bank of Colombia make no change to the monetary policy interest rate at the October meeting?	Yes	BUY	2	56¢	$1	0xee0c10…
10-22 16:19:54	Will the Central Bank of Colombia make no change to the monetary policy interest rate at the October meeting?	Yes	BUY	200	55¢	$110	0xdd96f2…
10-22 16:19:27	Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	No	BUY	448	22¢	$100	0x42dd61…
10-22 12:10:36	Bank of Mexico decreases interest rates by 25 bps after November 2026 meeting?	Yes	SELL	200	26¢	$52	0x93358e…
10-22 11:46:41	Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	No	BUY	1,139	22¢	$250	0xcff5cc…
10-22 11:45:15	Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	No	BUY	2,729	22¢	$600	0x7b4cc3…
10-22 11:44:12	Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Yes	SELL	1,540	78¢	$1,203	0x81ecfd…
10-21 13:45:41	Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the second round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by less than 4%?	Yes	BUY	50	41¢	$20	0xa15548…
10-21 13:45:33	Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the second round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by 4–8%?	Yes	BUY	40	34¢	$14	0xe8700f…
10-21 13:45:09	Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the second round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by less than 4%?	Yes	BUY	60	41¢	$25	0x3918b0…
10-21 13:44:57	Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the second round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by 4–8%?	Yes	BUY	50	34¢	$17	0x4b4572…
10-21 13:44:50	Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the second round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by 4–8%?	Yes	BUY	10	33¢	$3	0x6342bd…
10-21 13:44:42	Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the second round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by less than 4%?	Yes	BUY	10	40¢	$4	0xf7cb1a…
10-21 13:44:35	Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the second round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by less than 4%?	Yes	BUY	84	40¢	$33	0xeb4e2b…
10-21 13:44:26	Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the second round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by 4–8%?	Yes	BUY	36	33¢	$12	0x654593…
10-21 13:22:27	Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Yes	BUY	1,500	79¢	$1,188	0xa86fa3…
10-21 13:22:17	Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Yes	BUY	40	79¢	$32	0xd628a9…
10-21 12:58:30	Will the Bank of Israel decrease the Bank of Israel Interest Rate after the October decision?	Yes	BUY	100	4¢	$4	0x928f77…
10-21 12:57:56	Will the Bank of Israel decrease the Bank of Israel Interest Rate after the October decision?	Yes	BUY	27	4¢	$1	0xb15d45…
10-21 12:57:56	Will the Bank of Israel decrease the Bank of Israel Interest Rate after the October decision?	Yes	BUY	9	4¢	$0	0x64f43a…
10-21 12:57:21	Will the Bank of Israel decrease the Bank of Israel Interest Rate after the October decision?	Yes	BUY	400	4¢	$15	0x0e52d8…
10-20 17:41:26	Bank of Mexico decreases interest rates by 25 bps after November 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	10	36¢	$4	0x4927c8…
10-20 17:41:21	Bank of Mexico decreases interest rates by 25 bps after November 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	10	36¢	$4	0x632cb1…
10-20 17:41:17	Bank of Mexico decreases interest rates by 25 bps after November 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	31	36¢	$11	0x420fb0…
10-20 17:41:03	Bank of Mexico decreases interest rates by 25 bps after November 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	51	35¢	$18	0x656c49…
10-20 17:37:59	Bank of Mexico decreases interest rates by 25 bps after November 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	50	35¢	$18	0x81d0e4…
10-20 17:37:41	Bank of Mexico decreases interest rates by 25 bps after November 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	46	35¢	$16	0x18fc62…