Normal-Lead — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$329

Unrealized P&L

+$9

Hit rate

92.8%

Resolved

292

Trades

824

lifetime

Volume

$30.1K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$36

Open exposure

$84

1 position

First seen

2026-01-01

last 09-28 20:57

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 141 days

Categories

Crypto

67% 89% +$54

Other

22% 61% -$425

Politics

9% 69% +$93

Sports

1% 69% +$2

Tech

0% 33% -$28

Pop-Culture

0% 50% -$25

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

5 active days in 12wk • peak 3 trades/day

Open positions (1) Resolved markets (30) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Variational FDV above $1B one day after launch?	No		+192	$75	44¢	$84	+$9	09-28 20:57

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
ethereum above 2700 on january 12	1	$799	800	0	+800	Yes	+$1	01-12 12:09
ethereum above 3200 on january 17	2	$799	400	400	+0	Yes	+$0	01-17 15:42
bitcoin above 88k on january 7	1	$699	700	0	+700	Yes	+$1	01-07 15:50
bitcoin above 86k on january 26	1	$513	516	0	+516	Yes	+$3	01-26 16:25
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	2	$501	255	255	+0	No	+$8	06-01 03:05
ethereum above 3100 on january 25	1	$500	500	0	+500	No	+$0	01-25 12:26
Will Bitcoin reach $77,000 on May 29?	2	$499	250	250	+0	No	+$0	05-29 23:46
will logan pauls psa 10 pokmon illustrator sale price be over 4 million	2	$491	250	250	+0	Yes	+$2	01-11 07:58
ethereum above 3200 on january 28	1	$472	473	0	+473	No	+$1	01-28 15:14
solana above 70 on february 8	1	$448	448	0	+448	Yes	+$0	02-08 10:57
bitcoin above 76k on february 5	1	$432	434	0	+434	No	+$2	02-05 12:44
solana above 80 on february 4	1	$431	432	0	+432	Yes	+$1	02-04 14:41
bitcoin above 86k on january 18	1	$425	425	0	+425	Yes	+$0	01-18 10:16
ethereum above 1500 on february 12	1	$423	423	0	+423	Yes	+$0	02-12 13:38
ethereum above 1700 on february 10	1	$419	420	0	+420	Yes	+$1	02-10 12:58
solana above 80 on february 2	1	$419	419	0	+419	Yes	+$0	02-02 13:59
bitcoin above 90k on january 14	1	$417	417	0	+417	Yes	+$0	01-14 14:29
ethereum above 3100 on january 15	1	$417	417	0	+417	Yes	+$0	01-15 14:37
bitcoin above 86k on january 13	1	$416	416	0	+416	Yes	+$0	01-13 12:26
bitcoin above 98k on january 20	1	$410	411	0	+411	No	+$1	01-19 23:34
ethereum above 3100 on january 24	1	$400	400	0	+400	No	+$0	01-24 12:47
xrp above 1pt8 on january 22	1	$389	389	0	+389	Yes	+$0	01-22 12:14
bitcoin above 92k on january 30	1	$350	350	0	+350	No	+$0	01-30 12:03
xrp above 1pt5 on february 11	1	$305	307	0	+307	No	+$2	02-11 12:30
xrp above 2pt2 on january 10	1	$300	300	0	+300	No	+$0	01-10 14:44
bitcoin above 88k on january 19	1	$300	300	0	+300	Yes	+$0	01-19 13:20
bitcoin above 88k on january 11	1	$299	300	0	+300	Yes	+$1	01-11 12:40
solana above 150 on january 9	1	$299	300	0	+300	No	+$1	01-09 12:08
xrp above 1pt5 on february 1	1	$298	300	0	+300	Yes	+$2	02-01 13:46
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026?	2	$290	204	204	+0	Yes	+$12	06-11 21:34

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
09-28 20:57:11	Variational FDV above $1B one day after launch?	No	BUY	192	39¢	$75	0xe9b038…
09-28 20:42:26	Will Harry Kane win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	No	SELL	31	57¢	$17	0x84371c…
09-08 10:24:27	Will Kylian Mbappé win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	Yes	SELL	51	11¢	$6	0x2678c7…
08-27 12:04:18	Variational FDV above $2B one day after launch?	No	SELL	21	75¢	$16	0x223e14…
08-27 11:59:22	Variational FDV above $2B one day after launch?	No	SELL	53	75¢	$40	0x916884…
08-25 14:08:21	Variational FDV above $2B one day after launch?	No	BUY	74	71¢	$53	0x0f486e…
08-25 14:07:06	Will prjx launch a token by December 31, 2027?	Yes	SELL	154	37¢	$57	0x5b709a…
08-25 12:16:16	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-25 12:15 UTC	Up	BUY	17	45¢	$8	0x87c38e…
08-21 13:02:12	will prjx launch a token by december 31 2027	Yes	SELL	21	38¢	$8	0x4f2804…
07-20 14:51:42	Will Harry Kane win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	No	BUY	31	65¢	$20	0x27d6f2…
07-20 14:00:55	Will Kylian Mbappé win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	Yes	BUY	31	10¢	$3	0x69d13f…
07-20 13:59:37	Will Lionel Messi win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	Yes	BUY	5	6¢	$0	0xee911c…
07-20 13:53:34	Will Kylian Mbappé win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	Yes	BUY	10	10¢	$1	0x4450d9…
07-20 13:53:33	Will Kylian Mbappé win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	Yes	BUY	10	10¢	$1	0xeb293d…
07-20 13:49:37	Will Lionel Messi win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	Yes	BUY	46	6¢	$3	0xa9b9cd…
07-18 16:30:25	fifwc fra eng 2026 07 18 btts	Yes	BUY	28	69¢	$20	0x736cda…
07-15 14:38:08	Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 22°C on July 15?	No	SELL	20	100¢	$20	0x6d1e17…
07-14 21:53:26	Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 22°C on July 15?	No	BUY	20	99¢	$20	0x5ca4bc…
07-12 01:10:29	Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	No	SELL	20	99¢	$20	0x595149…
07-08 19:28:32	Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 23°C on July 9?	No	BUY	11	44¢	$5	0x4a7d59…
07-08 19:18:59	Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 23°C on July 9?	No	BUY	49	44¢	$22	0x5a582d…
07-08 01:52:58	Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on July 8?	No	BUY	19	7¢	$1	0xadfa5c…
07-08 01:35:25	Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on July 8?	No	BUY	5	7¢	$0	0xf5e36f…
07-08 01:28:07	Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on July 8?	No	BUY	27	7¢	$2	0x31a667…
07-07 21:27:34	Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	No	BUY	20	99¢	$20	0x67284b…
07-07 20:55:46	Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 72-73°F on July 7?	No	SELL	60	100¢	$60	0x2947f0…
07-07 20:03:11	atp augeral djokovi 2026 07 07	Novak Djokovic	BUY	27	73¢	$20	0x39291b…
07-07 16:10:50	Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 72-73°F on July 7?	No	BUY	7	93¢	$6	0x627b16…
07-07 16:09:34	Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 72-73°F on July 7?	No	BUY	22	93¢	$21	0xe93620…
07-07 16:09:32	Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 72-73°F on July 7?	No	BUY	22	93¢	$21	0x07a275…
07-07 16:09:31	Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 72-73°F on July 7?	No	BUY	9	93¢	$8	0x8f58f3…
07-06 16:08:23	Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 74-75°F on July 6?	No	SELL	30	86¢	$26	0x2eb0ad…
07-06 15:39:44	Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 70-71°F on July 6?	No	BUY	51	50¢	$25	0xc0241d…
07-06 15:18:46	Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 74-75°F on July 6?	No	SELL	6	86¢	$5	0x8312b0…
07-06 15:16:59	Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 74-75°F on July 6?	No	SELL	24	86¢	$21	0x499850…
07-06 15:16:58	Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 74-75°F on July 6?	No	SELL	40	86¢	$34	0x26b4ff…
07-06 13:19:59	Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 74-75°F on July 6?	No	BUY	8	84¢	$6	0xc287d6…
07-06 13:19:58	Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 74-75°F on July 6?	No	BUY	12	84¢	$10	0x147497…
07-06 13:19:47	Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 74-75°F on July 6?	No	BUY	20	84¢	$17	0xf511ee…
07-06 13:19:46	Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 74-75°F on July 6?	No	BUY	20	84¢	$17	0x47b403…
07-06 13:19:44	Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 74-75°F on July 6?	No	BUY	20	84¢	$17	0xbbf2d5…
07-06 13:19:44	Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 74-75°F on July 6?	No	BUY	20	84¢	$17	0x017859…
07-05 16:11:16	Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 74-75°F on July 5?	Yes	SELL	8	61¢	$5	0x81f973…
07-05 14:06:23	Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 74-75°F on July 5?	Yes	SELL	43	61¢	$26	0x308650…
07-05 12:43:49	Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 74-75°F on July 5?	Yes	BUY	8	58¢	$5	0x8c1685…
07-05 12:43:41	Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 74-75°F on July 5?	Yes	BUY	10	58¢	$6	0xede9bd…
07-05 12:43:41	Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 74-75°F on July 5?	Yes	BUY	10	58¢	$6	0x8c3003…
07-05 12:43:37	Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 74-75°F on July 5?	Yes	BUY	10	58¢	$6	0xd62225…
07-05 12:43:31	Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 74-75°F on July 5?	Yes	BUY	10	58¢	$6	0x3df698…
07-05 12:43:19	Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 74-75°F on July 5?	Yes	BUY	3	58¢	$2	0x09f756…
07-05 12:28:50	Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	BUY	207	7¢	$14	0x5d4862…
07-04 14:30:05	Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 96-97°F on July 4?	No	SELL	5	64¢	$3	0x0485d2…
07-04 14:29:07	Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 96-97°F on July 4?	No	SELL	17	64¢	$11	0x7a19fe…
07-04 13:15:07	Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 96-97°F on July 4?	No	BUY	22	50¢	$11	0x98124b…
07-04 09:07:07	Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 17°C on July 4?	No	SELL	3	76¢	$2	0x9fc24d…
07-04 08:21:34	Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 17°C on July 4?	No	SELL	2	76¢	$2	0x3ab801…
07-04 07:07:50	Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 17°C on July 4?	No	SELL	3	76¢	$2	0xff83a6…
07-04 07:07:43	Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 17°C on July 4?	No	SELL	8	76¢	$6	0xdbafa3…
07-04 07:02:20	Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 17°C on July 4?	No	SELL	4	76¢	$3	0x825367…
07-04 04:45:44	Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 17°C on July 4?	No	SELL	5	73¢	$3	0xa6e09c…
07-04 04:09:25	Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 17°C on July 4?	No	SELL	2	73¢	$2	0xcb94f8…
07-04 04:01:49	Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 17°C on July 4?	No	SELL	5	73¢	$4	0x7cfbee…
07-04 04:00:11	Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 17°C on July 4?	No	SELL	1	73¢	$1	0x360646…
07-04 03:08:47	Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 17°C on July 4?	No	SELL	2	73¢	$1	0x5a9a20…
07-04 01:07:26	Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 17°C on July 4?	No	SELL	2	71¢	$1	0x1c991c…
07-04 00:07:01	Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 17°C on July 4?	No	SELL	5	71¢	$4	0x6c1fd8…
07-03 19:17:20	will prjx launch a token by december 31 2027	Yes	SELL	10	38¢	$4	0xc9edbc…
07-03 14:56:13	Will Sorin Grindeanu be the next Prime Minister of Romania?	No	SELL	47	64¢	$30	0xd1e4e6…
07-03 13:27:50	Will Sorin Grindeanu be the next Prime Minister of Romania?	No	SELL	3	64¢	$2	0xe041b3…
07-03 12:14:52	Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 17°C on July 4?	No	BUY	1	66¢	$1	0x3a4b29…
07-03 12:09:34	Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 17°C on July 4?	No	BUY	5	66¢	$3	0xcf285b…
07-03 12:00:16	Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 17°C on July 4?	No	BUY	15	66¢	$10	0xf0026b…
07-03 00:24:01	Will Croatia win on 2026-07-02?	Yes	SELL	100	47¢	$47	0x4ceeb7…
07-02 19:46:26	Will Croatia win on 2026-07-02?	Yes	BUY	100	17¢	$17	0xc98a4c…
07-02 16:54:13	Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 17°C on July 4?	No	BUY	21	72¢	$15	0xe0689f…
07-02 11:25:32	Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 22°C on July 2?	Yes	SELL	13	76¢	$10	0xf9a1f0…
07-02 11:03:47	Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 22°C on July 2?	Yes	SELL	5	76¢	$4	0x8f3ade…
07-02 11:01:50	Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 22°C on July 2?	Yes	SELL	9	76¢	$7	0x0828ee…
07-01 22:16:50	Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 22°C on July 2?	Yes	BUY	26	72¢	$19	0xea1b6d…
07-01 21:26:02	Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 22°C on July 2?	Yes	BUY	4	72¢	$3	0x8544ad…
07-01 21:25:49	Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 23°C on July 2?	No	BUY	19	76¢	$14	0x45e6ef…
07-01 21:25:13	Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 23°C on July 2?	No	BUY	21	76¢	$16	0xdbdc89…
07-01 21:25:08	Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 22°C on July 2?	Yes	BUY	21	72¢	$15	0x7bcbf1…
07-01 21:22:34	Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 23°C on July 2?	No	BUY	12	76¢	$9	0x1be268…
07-01 20:34:38	Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 70-71°F on July 1?	Yes	SELL	11	66¢	$7	0xd0cda2…
07-01 20:34:38	Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 70-71°F on July 1?	Yes	SELL	1	66¢	$1	0x852d46…
07-01 20:34:38	Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 70-71°F on July 1?	Yes	SELL	1	66¢	$0	0x79e3c6…
07-01 20:34:29	Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 70-71°F on July 1?	Yes	SELL	20	66¢	$13	0x4127cd…
07-01 20:34:29	Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 70-71°F on July 1?	Yes	SELL	20	66¢	$13	0x39a614…
07-01 20:34:28	Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 70-71°F on July 1?	Yes	SELL	20	66¢	$13	0xd23e80…
07-01 20:34:22	Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 70-71°F on July 1?	Yes	SELL	12	66¢	$8	0xef453f…
07-01 17:04:05	Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 70-71°F on July 1?	Yes	SELL	27	63¢	$17	0x711f61…
07-01 16:58:22	Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 70-71°F on July 1?	Yes	SELL	8	63¢	$5	0x891e44…
07-01 13:20:14	Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 70-71°F on July 1?	Yes	BUY	16	64¢	$10	0xf45b55…
07-01 13:11:43	Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 70-71°F on July 1?	Yes	BUY	30	64¢	$19	0xe759dd…
07-01 13:11:41	Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 70-71°F on July 1?	Yes	BUY	30	64¢	$19	0x97542d…
07-01 13:00:02	Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 70-71°F on July 1?	Yes	BUY	23	64¢	$15	0xc3f5a9…
07-01 12:19:46	Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 70-71°F on July 1?	Yes	BUY	13	64¢	$8	0x9166cd…
07-01 12:19:46	Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 70-71°F on July 1?	Yes	BUY	8	64¢	$5	0x0ca751…
06-29 18:11:17	Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 86-87°F on June 29?	Yes	SELL	41	65¢	$26	0xa73c7a…