Wallet — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$13

Unrealized P&L

+$1

Hit rate

58.9%

Resolved

149

Trades

155

lifetime

Volume

$254

lifetime

Avg / trade

Open exposure

2 positions

First seen

2026-07-22

last 11-04 07:10

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 70 days

Categories

Other

88% 56% +$3

Politics

10% 69% +$10

Tech

2% 50% +$0

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

60 active days in 12wk • peak 4 trades/day

Open positions (2) Resolved markets (30) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will Gemini Carbon be released on November 10, 2026?	No		+2	$1	64¢	$1	+$0	11-04 07:10
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 7?	Yes		+1	$1	97¢	$1	+$0	11-03 02:51

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
will wti reach 90 in august 2026	2	$4	10	+10	No	+$1	08-20 23:32
will warsh say restrictive during july press conference 20260720204109047	1	$2	3	+3	Yes	+$1	07-23 08:58
trump x greenland deal signed by september 23	1	$2	6	+6	Yes	-$2	09-19 15:16
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from September 8 to September 15, 2026?	1	$2	3	+3	No	+$1	09-11 19:49
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from September 4 to September 11, 2026?	1	$2	8	+8	Yes	+$6	09-07 12:21
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from August 11 to August 18, 2026?	1	$2	2	+2	Yes	-$2	08-13 22:24
Will Alphabet Inc. (GOOGL) hit (LOW) $325 Week of September 14 2026?	1	$2	3	+3	No	+$1	09-14 00:27
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from August 4 to August 11, 2026?	1	$2	8	+8	Yes	+$6	08-08 12:51
us x iran effective ceasefire by september 4	1	$2	6	+6	Yes	+$4	09-08 23:11
next mythos class model released by september 7 2026	1	$2	3	+3	Yes	+$1	08-28 14:34
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from August 11 to August 18, 2026?	1	$2	2	+2	No	+$0	08-16 09:03
Will 190-209 ships transit the Bab el-Mandeb Strait between September 14-September 20?	1	$2	2	+2	No	+$0	09-17 06:14
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from September 14 to September 16, 2026?	1	$2	3	+3	No	+$1	09-16 02:14
us x iran effective ceasfire by july 31 20260715194822045	1	$2	4	+4	Yes	+$2	08-02 15:53
Will annual inflation be 3.4% in August?	1	$2	4	+4	Yes	-$2	09-09 18:17
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from September 4 to September 11, 2026?	1	$2	7	+7	No	-$2	09-08 05:23
Next OpenAI GPT Luna (5.7+) released by September 27, 2026?	1	$2	3	+3	Yes	+$1	09-22 10:35
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from September 17 to September 19, 2026?	1	$2	4	+4	Yes	-$2	09-15 09:12
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from September 15 to September 22, 2026?	1	$2	8	+8	No	-$2	09-19 06:26
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from August 18 to August 25, 2026?	1	$2	2	+2	No	+$0	08-19 01:56
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from September 7 to September 9, 2026?	1	$2	3	+3	No	+$1	09-08 14:04
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from September 14 to September 16, 2026?	1	$2	3	+3	Yes	+$1	09-15 17:14
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from September 11 to September 18, 2026?	1	$2	9	+9	No	-$2	09-13 16:26
Will Trump say "Failing Country" or "Failing Nation" during his remarks at the United Nations General Assembly?	1	$2	5	+5	No	-$2	09-18 11:23
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from September 8 to September 15, 2026?	1	$2	6	+6	No	-$2	09-13 05:40
spy up or down on september 16 2026	1	$2	3	+3	Down	-$2	09-16 10:14
Will the Bank of Russia decrease the key rate after the September Meeting?	1	$2	3	+3	No	+$1	09-09 10:15
Will Trump say "Afford" or "Affordable" or "Affordability" during RNC Convention?	1	$2	3	+3	No	+$1	09-10 10:50
will googl reach 355 by august 17 2026	1	$2	6	+6	No	-$2	08-17 23:17
Will Core CPI MoM be 0.3% in July?	1	$2	8	+8	No	-$2	08-04 00:14

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
11-04 07:10:42	Will Gemini Carbon be released on November 10, 2026?	No	BUY	2	44¢	$1	0x55c2ca…
11-03 23:10:36	Will the October 2026 unemployment rate be 4.2%?	Yes	BUY	2	44¢	$1	0xe17876…
11-03 02:51:36	Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from November 2 to November 4, 2026?	No	BUY	1	72¢	$1	0x4e81a1…
11-03 02:51:31	Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 7?	Yes	BUY	1	80¢	$1	0x2f911c…
11-02 06:50:31	Will Elon Musk post 420-439 tweets from October 27 to November 3, 2026?	No	BUY	1	78¢	$1	0x30cfbf…
11-01 22:50:27	Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from October 27 to November 3, 2026?	No	BUY	1	78¢	$1	0x75644b…
11-01 11:28:33	Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from October 31 to November 2, 2026?	No	BUY	2	56¢	$1	0x5e28be…
11-01 01:32:07	Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from October 31 to November 2, 2026?	No	BUY	1	73¢	$1	0x6816f9…
10-30 21:18:46	Will Elon Musk post 165-189 tweets from October 29 to October 31, 2026?	No	BUY	1	69¢	$1	0x3aaaf1…
10-27 10:36:06	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 in October?	Yes	BUY	2	59¢	$1	0x288066…
10-25 02:02:48	Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from October 20 to October 27, 2026?	No	BUY	1	72¢	$1	0x1d3f25…
10-24 17:31:42	Will Mexico GDP growth in Q3 2026 be between 3.0% and 3.5%?	Yes	BUY	2	42¢	$1	0xa8f37f…
10-22 17:08:17	Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from October 22 to October 24, 2026?	No	BUY	1	75¢	$1	0x25a2f3…
10-22 09:08:09	Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from October 22 to October 24, 2026?	No	BUY	2	64¢	$1	0x52ac64…
10-21 23:29:14	Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from October 16 to October 23, 2026?	No	BUY	1	74¢	$1	0x7ed489…
10-18 01:22:53	Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 21, 2026?	No	BUY	2	66¢	$1	0x539093…
10-17 17:22:36	Lam Research (LRCX) Q1 China revenue mix <22%?	No	BUY	1	80¢	$1	0x6f26dc…
10-15 19:49:53	Will the Tesla Roadster fly for 1s+?	No	BUY	3	31¢	$1	0x609c31…
10-13 23:30:37	Will Core CPI MoM be 0.2% in September?	Yes	BUY	2	51¢	$1	0xe0d0fc…
10-13 15:29:40	Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from October 9 to October 16, 2026?	Yes	BUY	5	21¢	$1	0xe2d05b…
10-12 19:28:33	Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (LOW) $3.00 Week of October 12 2026?	No	BUY	2	60¢	$1	0xec2fa0…
10-12 11:28:26	Taiwan Semiconductor (TSM) Q3 gross profit margin 67% to 68%?	No	BUY	2	59¢	$1	0x2e8e44…
10-11 02:58:05	Will Goldman Sachs (GS) beat quarterly earnings?	Yes	BUY	2	43¢	$1	0x9dd760…
10-09 17:44:56	Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from October 8 to October 10, 2026?	No	BUY	2	45¢	$1	0x7c18cf…
10-09 09:42:37	Gemini 4.0 released by October 15, 2026?	No	BUY	2	45¢	$1	0x30115d…
10-08 23:19:24	Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from October 8 to October 10, 2026?	No	BUY	1	74¢	$1	0x42c995…
10-07 23:14:46	Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from October 8 to October 10, 2026?	Yes	BUY	2	51¢	$1	0xfcbf89…
10-07 14:44:22	Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from October 6 to October 13, 2026?	Yes	BUY	5	21¢	$1	0xbef5ef…
10-07 06:35:21	Will OpenRouter process less than 155T tokens the week of October 5?	No	BUY	2	41¢	$1	0xe1cc95…
10-06 22:35:09	Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from October 2 to October 9, 2026?	No	BUY	1	79¢	$1	0xe26074…
10-06 22:35:06	Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from October 6 to October 13, 2026?	No	BUY	1	78¢	$1	0x62c84d…
10-05 14:34:53	Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from September 29 to October 6, 2026?	No	BUY	2	53¢	$1	0x6284cc…
10-02 13:33:30	Will the next Claude Haiku (4.6+) model be released by October 7, 2026?	No	BUY	2	60¢	$1	0xd67332…
10-02 05:25:56	Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from September 29 to October 6, 2026?	Yes	BUY	4	26¢	$1	0xe2fbed…
10-01 16:34:42	Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from October 1 to October 3, 2026?	No	BUY	1	75¢	$1	0xd3bbe8…
10-01 08:34:09	Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from September 29 to October 6, 2026?	No	BUY	1	76¢	$1	0xcab96a…
09-30 23:40:12	Will Elon tweet 880-919 times in September 2026?	No	BUY	1	73¢	$1	0xf68262…
09-30 15:39:00	Will OpenAI resume US ChatGPT Pro signups by September 30, 2026?	No	BUY	1	77¢	$1	0xa2610e…
09-30 06:32:54	Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from September 25 to October 2, 2026?	No	BUY	1	72¢	$1	0xd743f6…
09-29 22:32:23	Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from September 29 to October 6, 2026?	Yes	BUY	5	21¢	$1	0x5c3dc2…
09-27 01:23:15	Will the US add between 50k and 100k jobs in September?	Yes	BUY	3	31¢	$1	0x49446c…
09-26 16:42:14	saudi oil pipeline east west restarts by september 30	Yes	BUY	5	21¢	$1	0x59fa1a…
09-26 08:35:35	Will Z.ai be the third-best Math AI lab at the end of September 2026?	No	BUY	2	60¢	$1	0xefe791…
09-26 00:34:57	Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from September 25 to October 2, 2026?	Yes	BUY	5	21¢	$1	0xe642c0…
09-25 03:41:03	Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from September 22 to September 29, 2026?	Yes	BUY	4	25¢	$1	0x79824a…
09-24 19:33:47	Will Elon tweet 840-879 times in September 2026?	Yes	BUY	3	31¢	$1	0xb51cee…
09-24 11:21:17	Will JOLTS Job Openings be between 7.4M and 7.5M in August?	No	BUY	1	77¢	$1	0x08dc76…
09-24 03:18:43	Will Micron Technology, Inc. (MU) hit (LOW) $1,050 Week of September 21 2026?	No	BUY	3	36¢	$1	0xc8c22c…
09-23 07:18:01	Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from September 22 to September 29, 2026?	No	BUY	3	77¢	$2	0x3cb1a0…
09-22 10:35:10	Next OpenAI GPT Luna (5.7+) released by September 27, 2026?	Yes	BUY	3	69¢	$2	0xf64ef3…
09-22 02:34:47	Will Robinhood Markets, Inc. (HOOD) hit (HIGH) $132.50 Week of September 21 2026?	No	BUY	3	78¢	$2	0x4d7b9c…
09-19 15:16:09	trump x greenland deal signed by september 23	No	BUY	6	34¢	$2	0x00ee4a…
09-19 06:26:43	Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from September 15 to September 22, 2026?	Yes	BUY	8	24¢	$2	0xdc7a63…
09-18 21:20:48	Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from September 18 to September 25, 2026?	No	BUY	3	78¢	$2	0x3711d0…
09-18 11:34:25	Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from September 15 to September 22, 2026?	No	BUY	3	77¢	$2	0x58f94b…
09-18 11:23:43	Will Trump say "Failing Country" or "Failing Nation" during his remarks at the United Nations General Assembly?	Yes	BUY	5	44¢	$2	0x64b540…
09-18 00:57:30	Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from September 15 to September 22, 2026?	No	BUY	3	73¢	$2	0x80c189…
09-17 16:44:13	Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from September 11 to September 18, 2026?	No	BUY	3	63¢	$2	0x2cc512…
09-17 06:14:49	Will 190-209 ships transit the Bab el-Mandeb Strait between September 14-September 20?	No	BUY	2	80¢	$2	0xb7819a…
09-16 10:14:21	spy up or down on september 16 2026	Up	BUY	3	62¢	$2	0x278e14…
09-16 02:14:00	Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from September 14 to September 16, 2026?	No	BUY	3	70¢	$2	0x89ca5a…
09-15 17:14:25	Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from September 14 to September 16, 2026?	Yes	BUY	3	75¢	$2	0x655c77…
09-15 09:12:01	Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from September 17 to September 19, 2026?	No	BUY	4	50¢	$2	0xa8b1c1…
09-14 00:27:48	Will Alphabet Inc. (GOOGL) hit (LOW) $325 Week of September 14 2026?	No	BUY	3	74¢	$2	0xca4304…
09-13 16:26:54	Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from September 11 to September 18, 2026?	Yes	BUY	9	22¢	$2	0xce7c56…
09-13 05:40:15	Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from September 8 to September 15, 2026?	Yes	BUY	6	35¢	$2	0x372d7b…
09-12 10:15:18	Will 25-29 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between September 7-September 13?	No	BUY	3	73¢	$2	0x74edf6…
09-11 19:49:10	Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from September 8 to September 15, 2026?	No	BUY	3	76¢	$2	0x4974b3…
09-10 10:50:15	Will Trump say "Afford" or "Affordable" or "Affordability" during RNC Convention?	No	BUY	3	72¢	$2	0x043f69…
09-10 02:28:24	Will monthly inflation increase by 0.3% in August?	Yes	BUY	3	36¢	$1	0x858c91…
09-09 18:17:52	Will annual inflation be 3.4% in August?	No	BUY	4	55¢	$2	0xe660f8…
09-09 10:15:34	Will the Bank of Russia decrease the key rate after the September Meeting?	No	BUY	3	72¢	$2	0xa687fa…
09-08 23:11:31	us x iran effective ceasefire by september 4	Yes	BUY	6	33¢	$2	0x5d7813…
09-08 14:04:40	Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from September 7 to September 9, 2026?	No	BUY	3	67¢	$2	0x5ae687…
09-08 05:23:43	Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from September 4 to September 11, 2026?	Yes	BUY	7	28¢	$2	0x388c43…
09-07 20:53:03	Will annual inflation be 3.3% in August?	Yes	BUY	3	34¢	$1	0xc7bc82…
09-07 12:21:48	Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from September 4 to September 11, 2026?	Yes	BUY	8	25¢	$2	0xd8a5e7…
09-03 21:01:43	us x iran effective ceasefire by september 11	Yes	BUY	3	56¢	$1	0x371ae8…
09-02 07:07:13	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?	No	BUY	3	62¢	$2	0x3318f0…
09-01 22:22:10	Will the US add between 50k and 100k jobs in August?	Yes	BUY	7	30¢	$2	0x6383d4…
09-01 13:19:51	Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from August 28 to September 4, 2026?	Yes	BUY	7	28¢	$2	0x25b2cf…
09-01 05:19:33	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?	No	BUY	5	44¢	$2	0x2d2459…
08-30 09:16:01	next mythos class model released by september 4 2026	No	BUY	6	33¢	$2	0x386635…
08-30 01:03:00	Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from August 25 to September 1, 2026?	Yes	BUY	9	23¢	$2	0xe8de62…
08-29 16:55:40	google maps renames lake ontario to lake america by september 4 2026	No	BUY	6	33¢	$2	0xfeebd9…
08-29 08:48:52	next mythos class model released by september 1 2026	Yes	BUY	5	41¢	$2	0x5a32ba…
08-28 22:45:42	google maps renames lake ontario to lake america by august 31 2026	No	BUY	3	63¢	$2	0x7d2370…
08-28 14:34:55	next mythos class model released by september 7 2026	Yes	BUY	3	64¢	$2	0x222a78…
08-28 06:34:04	Will Warsh say "AI" or "Artificial Intelligence" 3+ times during Jackson Hole speech on August 28?	No	BUY	6	36¢	$2	0x12a00f…
08-27 22:32:42	Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (HIGH) $71 Week of August 24 2026?	Yes	BUY	6	35¢	$2	0x1b2640…
08-27 14:32:07	Next Mythos-Class Model released by September 9, 2026?	No	BUY	8	24¢	$2	0x28a64a…
08-27 06:31:39	will trump say oil gas or gasoline during remarks at nasa	No	BUY	3	78¢	$2	0x7ced96…
08-26 22:30:48	Will China’s CPI increase by between 0.5% and 0.6% over the 12 month period ending in August 2026?	Yes	BUY	5	39¢	$2	0xde20c4…
08-23 13:42:37	Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from August 24 to August 26, 2026?	Yes	BUY	5	41¢	$2	0xc96c1a…
08-22 23:23:31	Will Core PCE YoY be 3.3% in July?	Yes	BUY	3	79¢	$2	0xebf22a…
08-22 14:21:04	0 ships transit hormuz on any date by august 31	Yes	BUY	6	36¢	$2	0x719d64…
08-22 02:44:52	Will USD be between 1.9M and 2.0M Iranian rials on August 31?	No	BUY	4	53¢	$2	0xf54864…
08-21 16:28:54	will wti reach 95 in august 2026	No	BUY	3	76¢	$2	0x9c14dc…
08-21 07:33:18	Will Elon Musk’s net worth be between $800B and $900B on August 31?	No	BUY	4	52¢	$2	0x499415…
08-20 23:32:07	will wti reach 90 in august 2026	No	BUY	5	40¢	$2	0x1f9283…