Subdued-Income — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$641

Unrealized P&L

-$94

Hit rate

61.0%

Resolved

576

Trades

1,212

lifetime

Volume

$24.5K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$20

Open exposure

$447

8 positions

First seen

2026-03-05

last 10-29 17:26

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 140 days

Categories

Politics

60% 62% -$425

Other

21% 36% +$894

Sports

19% 46% +$171

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

24 active days in 12wk • peak 10 trades/day

Open positions (8) Resolved markets (27) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
israel x iran ceasefire continues through december 31	No	+234	$100	62¢	$147	+$47	08-11 18:17
iran full airspace closure by december 31 20260727170429885	Yes	+365	$243	36¢	$133	-$110	08-16 17:01
Will Gadi Eizenkot be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	Yes	-343	-$61	34¢	$-117	-$56	10-27 20:03
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 15?	Yes	+43	$30	64¢	$28	-$2	10-27 10:48
Will San Antonio Spurs win the 2027 NBA Finals?	Yes	+50	$10	22¢	$11	+$1	07-25 12:36
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	Yes	+184	-$1	4¢	$7	+$8	07-19 16:41
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	Yes	-92	-$32	4¢	$-4	+$28	06-11 18:57
Will Ra'am win exactly 6 seats in the 2026 Knesset elections?	Yes	+56	$10	0¢	$0	-$10	10-27 19:59

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
israel x iran ceasefire continues through august 15 20260716224448969 246 815 987 693	4	$480	431	431	+0	Yes	+$40	08-11 18:16
israel x iran ceasefire continues through august 31 20260716224448970 754 896 823	5	$473	563	563	+0	Yes	-$117	08-11 18:15
Will Likud win 20-24 seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	11	$420	1,190	0	+1,190	No	-$420	10-27 10:46
will trump meet with netanyahu by august 31 2026	5	$417	228	228	+0	Yes	+$37	07-27 16:55
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	11	$377	446	446	+0	open	—	10-27 19:59
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?	4	$344	480	182	+298	Yes	+$271	09-15 17:25
Will Likud win fewer than 20 seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	12	$335	1,593	1,593	+0	No	-$325	10-29 17:26
Will Shai Gilgeous-Alexander win the 2026 NBA Finals MVP?	11	$323	255	255	+0	No	+$49	05-31 10:28
iran full airspace closure by december 31 20260727170429885	6	$317	493	128	+365	open	—	08-16 17:01
Will Ra'am win 8 or more seats in the 2026 Knesset elections?	3	$302	277	277	+0	open	—	10-29 17:09
Israel x Lebanon diplomatic meeting by April 19, 2026?	8	$281	165	165	+0	Yes	+$31	04-13 21:05
Israel closes its airspace by June 30?	19	$275	427	427	+0	No	-$145	06-18 14:31
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland?	10	$269	383	237	+146	Yes	+$75	06-20 15:17
Israel election: will Likud lose seats?	7	$254	151	151	+0	Yes	+$14	10-27 20:02
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 22, 2026?	7	$252	300	200	+100	No	-$9	04-22 17:50
will trump meet with netanyahu by july 31 2026	10	$250	378	378	+0	Yes	-$70	07-27 16:55
will israel launch a major ground offensive in lebanon by march 31	4	$248	153	153	+0	Yes	+$58	03-25 09:22
Will Amcha Yisrael win fewer than 4 seats in the 2026 Knesset elections?	3	$215	127	127	+0	Yes	+$35	10-29 17:26
Will Likud win the most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	3	$209	317	317	+0	Yes	-$51	10-27 20:05
iran full airspace closure by august 15	1	$200	250	0	+250	No	+$50	07-31 09:00
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland by September 30, 2026?	6	$198	423	423	+0	No	+$28	07-31 08:57
will israel conduct military action against iran by april 14 2026	4	$198	153	153	+0	No	+$78	04-13 21:02
US-Iran nuclear deal by April 30?	7	$194	172	172	+0	No	+$44	04-26 09:03
US forces enter Iran by December 31?	5	$188	113	113	+0	Yes	+$28	04-05 06:54
Israeli forces cross the Litani River by June 30?	10	$184	303	121	+182	Yes	-$96	05-11 09:35
Israel x Lebanon diplomatic meeting by May 31?	8	$178	119	119	+0	Yes	+$18	05-12 19:08
Will Kanye West visit Israel by June 30?	7	$177	696	715	-19	No	-$22	05-14 09:47
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 26, 2026?	4	$177	109	109	+0	No	+$37	04-25 22:16
Iran closes its airspace by May 31?	6	$173	124	124	+0	No	+$17	06-01 11:51
Israel x Lebanon diplomatic meeting by April 14, 2026?	8	$165	130	130	+0	Yes	+$76	04-13 21:04

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
10-29 17:26:49	Will Likud win fewer than 20 seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	Yes	SELL	1,593	0¢	$5	0xb29a7c…
10-29 17:26:35	Will Yisrael Beiteinu win 6-7 seats in the 2026 Knesset elections?	Yes	SELL	62	97¢	$61	0x6dfc04…
10-29 17:26:25	Will Amcha Yisrael win fewer than 4 seats in the 2026 Knesset elections?	Yes	SELL	127	98¢	$125	0xa03bad…
10-29 17:09:16	Will Ra'am win 8 or more seats in the 2026 Knesset elections?	Yes	SELL	277	91¢	$253	0xdb7887…
10-29 09:33:43	Will Ra'am win 8 or more seats in the 2026 Knesset elections?	Yes	BUY	133	30¢	$40	0xe19516…
10-28 14:21:10	Will Ra'am win 8 or more seats in the 2026 Knesset elections?	Yes	BUY	144	6¢	$9	0xb59f38…
10-28 14:18:58	Will Shas win 6-7 seats in the 2026 Knesset elections?	Yes	SELL	98	94¢	$92	0xd7a79d…
10-27 20:08:27	Will Yashar win the most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	Yes	SELL	42	13¢	$5	0xbe9666…
10-27 20:08:15	Will Ra'am win exactly 5 seats in the 2026 Knesset elections?	Yes	SELL	35	3¢	$1	0x46d2a1…
10-27 20:05:21	Will Likud win the most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	No	SELL	317	25¢	$79	0x9caf66…
10-27 20:03:11	Will Gadi Eizenkot be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	Yes	SELL	76	34¢	$26	0x41f300…
10-27 20:02:45	Israel election: will Likud lose seats?	Yes	SELL	71	95¢	$67	0xfa70ad…
10-27 19:59:50	Will Ra'am win exactly 6 seats in the 2026 Knesset elections?	Yes	BUY	56	18¢	$10	0x106711…
10-27 19:59:12	Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	Yes	SELL	250	22¢	$55	0x760bde…
10-27 19:57:57	Will Together win 17-19 seats in the 2026 Knesset elections?	Yes	BUY	19	21¢	$4	0x8707f3…
10-27 10:48:33	Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 15?	Yes	BUY	43	69¢	$30	0xfdcccf…
10-27 10:46:41	Will Likud win 20-24 seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	Yes	BUY	23	44¢	$10	0x74b2c2…
10-26 18:26:11	Will Naftali Bennett receive the first mandate to form a government after the 2026 Israeli election?	Yes	BUY	271	4¢	$10	0x8d59a0…
10-26 16:29:54	Will Likud win fewer than 20 seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	Yes	BUY	54	28¢	$15	0xabd154…
10-26 16:29:02	Will Joint List win 8-9 seats in the 2026 Knesset elections?	Yes	BUY	22	69¢	$15	0x5acf02…
10-26 16:27:27	Will Ra'am win exactly 5 seats in the 2026 Knesset elections?	Yes	BUY	35	28¢	$10	0x2ba616…
10-26 16:26:56	Will Together win 14-16 seats in the 2026 Knesset elections?	Yes	BUY	29	35¢	$10	0x0b1855…
10-26 16:25:44	Will Yisrael Beiteinu win 6-7 seats in the 2026 Knesset elections?	Yes	BUY	62	40¢	$25	0x8669e6…
10-26 16:25:12	Will Amcha Yisrael win fewer than 4 seats in the 2026 Knesset elections?	Yes	BUY	50	60¢	$30	0x198b8d…
10-24 15:17:35	UFC 333: Alexander Volkanovski vs. Movsar Evloev (Featherweight, Main Card)	Alexander Volkanovski	BUY	20	51¢	$10	0xc6d436…
10-17 14:33:45	UFC Fight Night: Mike Malott vs. Joaquin Buckley (Welterweight, Main Card)	Mike Malott	BUY	19	54¢	$10	0x289c50…
10-17 14:23:50	Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	Yes	BUY	107	28¢	$30	0xf1ac0f…
10-17 14:19:09	Spread: Pacers (-3.5)	Pacers	BUY	20	51¢	$10	0x458719…
10-17 14:17:39	nba nyk bos 2026 10 23	Knicks	BUY	42	47¢	$20	0x4903ed…
10-10 17:23:18	Will Yashar win 22-23 seats in the 2026 Knesset elections?	Yes	BUY	182	22¢	$40	0xff054e…
10-10 17:22:09	Will Likud win fewer than 20 seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	Yes	BUY	175	17¢	$30	0x7f9ce0…
10-05 18:42:58	Will Likud win 20-24 seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	Yes	BUY	77	39¢	$30	0x25b969…
10-05 18:37:47	Netanyahu out by end of 2026?	Yes	SELL	75	38¢	$28	0x47a62c…
10-05 18:36:32	Will Amcha Yisrael win fewer than 4 seats in the 2026 Knesset elections?	Yes	BUY	77	78¢	$60	0x69acd8…
10-05 12:35:23	Will Yashar win the most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	Yes	BUY	42	48¢	$20	0xa51f51…
10-05 12:33:55	Will Yisrael Beiteinu win 10-11 seats in the 2026 Knesset elections?	Yes	BUY	152	13¢	$20	0xb5ff38…
10-05 12:32:25	Will Likud win fewer than 20 seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	Yes	BUY	123	24¢	$30	0xe81510…
10-03 08:35:24	Will Likud win fewer than 20 seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	Yes	BUY	53	28¢	$15	0x111de7…
10-03 08:35:09	Will Likud win 20-24 seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	Yes	BUY	86	35¢	$30	0x6a4f68…
09-30 12:31:59	Will Israel election happen as scheduled?	No	BUY	71	21¢	$15	0x7dfc90…
09-30 12:29:21	Will Likud win 20-24 seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	Yes	BUY	110	36¢	$40	0xda154b…
09-30 12:29:15	Will Likud win fewer than 20 seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	Yes	BUY	178	22¢	$40	0x504b23…
09-27 11:42:54	Will Likud win 20-24 seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	Yes	BUY	194	36¢	$70	0xab9116…
09-24 15:28:23	Will Likud win fewer than 20 seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	Yes	BUY	228	22¢	$50	0xc171c2…
09-19 07:37:55	Will Likud win fewer than 20 seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	Yes	BUY	76	26¢	$20	0x73dec6…
09-19 07:34:01	Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	Yes	BUY	143	28¢	$40	0xb7f489…
09-17 13:49:22	Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	No	SELL	90	69¢	$62	0x82b3df…
09-17 13:48:06	Will Likud win 20-24 seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	Yes	BUY	107	38¢	$40	0x222388…
09-17 13:47:51	Will Likud win fewer than 20 seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	Yes	BUY	421	19¢	$80	0x436806…
09-15 17:25:07	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	SELL	182	87¢	$159	0x47ee72…
09-13 21:42:31	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	38	78¢	$30	0x22209f…
09-13 21:42:22	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	38	78¢	$30	0xe40439…
09-12 08:00:19	Will Yashar win 24-25 seats in the 2026 Knesset elections?	Yes	BUY	97	21¢	$20	0x934a91…
09-12 07:32:42	Will Yashar win 26-27 seats in the 2026 Knesset elections?	Yes	BUY	132	11¢	$15	0x6f311d…
09-12 07:32:34	Will Yashar win 24-25 seats in the 2026 Knesset elections?	Yes	BUY	163	18¢	$30	0x5c56b5…
09-12 07:31:37	Will Likud win 20-24 seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	Yes	BUY	96	42¢	$40	0x987216…
09-12 07:31:34	Will Likud win fewer than 20 seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	Yes	BUY	127	16¢	$20	0xedcc25…
09-12 07:18:57	Will Gadi Eizenkot be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	Yes	BUY	76	52¢	$40	0x3e1289…
09-12 07:17:03	Will Yisrael Beiteinu win 8-9 seats in the 2026 Knesset elections?	Yes	BUY	30	49¢	$15	0x7fb590…
09-11 15:59:34	Will Shas win 6-7 seats in the 2026 Knesset elections?	Yes	BUY	98	20¢	$20	0x3b3516…
08-27 12:03:42	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	403	31¢	$125	0x56910c…
08-24 15:44:36	Will Likud win 20-24 seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	Yes	BUY	93	32¢	$30	0x4b5415…
08-24 15:42:55	Will Likud win 20-24 seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	Yes	BUY	94	32¢	$30	0x5f6d37…
08-16 17:07:49	Will Likud win fewer than 20 seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	Yes	BUY	50	20¢	$10	0x69babe…
08-16 17:07:12	Israel election: will Likud lose seats?	Yes	BUY	33	90¢	$30	0x83686d…
08-16 17:01:42	iran full airspace closure by december 31 20260727170429885	Yes	SELL	128	29¢	$37	0x386a9e…
08-14 20:21:51	Will Likud win 20-24 seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	Yes	BUY	123	32¢	$40	0x7a5063…
08-11 18:17:00	israel x iran ceasefire continues through december 31	No	BUY	234	43¢	$100	0x13d68b…
08-11 18:16:51	israel x iran ceasefire continues through september 30	Yes	BUY	208	72¢	$150	0xea74f5…
08-11 18:16:00	israel x iran ceasefire continues through august 15 20260716224448969 246 815 987 693	Yes	SELL	205	97¢	$199	0x8d0bc9…
08-11 18:15:48	israel x iran ceasefire continues through august 31 20260716224448970 754 896 823	No	SELL	336	11¢	$37	0x674c0b…
08-10 17:02:22	iran full airspace closure by august 31 20260625195254151 668	Yes	SELL	47	10¢	$5	0x6b32b2…
08-07 15:04:55	Will Likud win the most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	No	BUY	73	41¢	$30	0xd6e22a…
08-06 20:58:45	Will Likud win the most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	No	BUY	244	41¢	$100	0xfa3008…
08-06 20:57:38	Netanyahu out by end of 2026?	Yes	BUY	75	40¢	$30	0x925423…
08-06 20:35:29	Will Likud win fewer than 20 seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	Yes	BUY	108	19¢	$20	0x520f32…
08-06 20:35:23	Will Likud win 20-24 seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	Yes	BUY	188	32¢	$60	0x6894a2…
08-06 20:34:14	Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	No	BUY	90	67¢	$60	0xaf33a3…
08-01 21:32:15	iran full airspace closure by december 31 20260727170429885	Yes	BUY	31	64¢	$20	0x9f47c2…
08-01 21:29:51	israel closes its airspace by august 31 389	Yes	BUY	58	43¢	$25	0xb2bb28…
08-01 21:27:39	iran full airspace closure by december 31 20260727170429885	Yes	BUY	63	64¢	$40	0x69b6ff…
08-01 17:04:24	iran full airspace closure by august 31 20260625195254151 668	Yes	BUY	47	43¢	$20	0x4bb916…
08-01 17:04:12	iran full airspace closure by december 31 20260727170429885	Yes	BUY	62	65¢	$40	0x36f4c9…
08-01 08:19:30	israel x iran ceasefire continues through august 31 20260716224448970 754 896 823	No	BUY	125	56¢	$70	0xa990b0…
08-01 08:19:18	israel x iran ceasefire continues through august 2 20260727170555149	Yes	BUY	125	80¢	$100	0x4e398b…
08-01 08:17:47	iran full airspace closure by december 31 20260727170429885	Yes	BUY	88	57¢	$50	0x88db19…
07-31 09:01:14	iran full airspace closure by december 31 20260727170429885	Yes	BUY	249	52¢	$130	0xd4a980…
07-31 09:00:47	iran full airspace closure by august 15	No	BUY	250	80¢	$200	0xd68430…
07-31 08:59:20	iran full airspace closure by august 31 20260625195254151 668	Yes	SELL	138	31¢	$43	0xae9d71…
07-31 08:57:17	us x iran diplomatic meeting by july 31 2026 20260622191708361	Yes	SELL	68	0¢	$0	0x7d2852…
07-31 08:57:03	Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland by September 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	42	24¢	$10	0xa08082…
07-31 08:52:32	will hamas agree to disarm by december 31	Yes	SELL	52	90¢	$47	0x820973…
07-30 12:34:50	will hamas agree to disarm by december 31	Yes	BUY	52	58¢	$30	0xe815bc…
07-29 07:15:02	Will the Bank of Israel cut by 25 bps at the August 2026 meeting?	Yes	SELL	22	20¢	$4	0x64be13…
07-29 06:17:27	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	46	22¢	$10	0x3776f0…
07-28 16:29:14	will trump and netanyahu hug on tuesday 20260724181151719	Yes	SELL	37	8¢	$3	0x5d8940…
07-28 11:18:58	israel x iran ceasefire continues through august 31 20260716224448970 754 896 823	No	BUY	211	38¢	$80	0x23cbf2…
07-28 11:18:49	israel x iran ceasefire continues through august 15 20260716224448969 246 815 987 693	Yes	BUY	205	73¢	$150	0x9d573d…
07-28 11:16:55	israel x iran ceasefire continues through august 15 20260716224448969 246 815 987 693	No	SELL	226	27¢	$61	0x98adee…
07-28 11:16:49	israel x iran ceasefire continues through august 31 20260716224448970 754 896 823	Yes	SELL	227	62¢	$141	0x155429…