Insubstantial-Wriggler — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$38

Unrealized P&L

+$2

Hit rate

98.3%

Resolved

112

Trades

168

lifetime

Volume

$4.78K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$28

Open exposure

$128

1 position

First seen

2026-01-07

last 11-05 18:05

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 46 days

Categories

Other

43% 97% +$7

Politics

40% 100% +$22

Crypto

14% 96% +$8

Tech

3% 100% +$1

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

36 active days in 12wk • peak 26 trades/day

Open positions (1) Resolved markets (29) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will Dan Sullivan win the Alaska Senate race in 2026?	No		+132	$126	98¢	$128	+$2	11-05 18:05

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 7, 2026?	6	$324	218	108	+110	No	+$1	09-07 23:26
Will Likud win 30-34 seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	3	$241	124	124	+0	No	+$5	10-28 06:21
Will Likud win 25-29 seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	3	$241	122	122	-0	Yes	+$1	10-29 15:55
LAPTOP FDV above $10M one day after launch?	3	$219	110	110	+0	Yes	+$0	09-10 10:56
us announces end of iranian blockade by august 15 2026 20260713152715083 347 987 697 628 574 676	7	$213	107	107	+0	No	+$0	08-15 19:31
us announces end of iranian blockade by august 12 2026	2	$213	107	107	+0	No	+$1	08-13 03:53
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the second round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by 8–12%?	3	$200	109	109	+0	No	+$3	10-23 06:42
US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 31, 2026?	2	$196	101	101	+0	No	+$1	08-24 19:13
Will the Democrats win the Texas Senate race in 2026?	2	$183	123	123	+0	Yes	+$4	11-04 00:22
Will Dan Sullivan win the Alaska Senate race in 2026?	1	$126	132	0	+132	open	—	11-05 18:05
Will the Republicans win the Louisiana Senate race in 2026?	1	$126	132	0	+132	Yes	+$6	11-04 05:10
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	1	$117	117	0	+117	Yes	+$0	10-26 00:06
Next US-Iran senior diplomatic meeting by October 5, 2026?	1	$112	112	0	+112	No	+$0	10-06 03:22
Will Flavio Bolsonaro win the most votes in the first round of the 2026 Brazil presidential election?	1	$112	112	0	+112	Yes	+$0	10-05 00:49
saudi oil pipeline east west restarts by september 30	1	$111	112	0	+112	No	+$1	10-01 00:45
Will Xi Jinping visit US before 2027?	1	$111	111	0	+111	Yes	+$0	09-22 11:42
US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by September 15?	1	$111	111	0	+111	No	+$0	09-15 22:17
US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 14, 2026?	1	$110	110	0	+110	No	+$1	09-14 16:52
us announces end of iranian blockade by august 13 2026	1	$107	108	0	+108	No	+$1	08-13 11:28
us announces end of iranian blockade by august 11 2026	1	$105	106	0	+106	No	+$1	08-11 15:22
grok 4pt6 released by august 7 2026 20260804192931962	1	$105	105	0	+105	No	+$0	08-07 23:35
US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by October 15?	2	$104	107	0	+107	No	+$2	10-12 21:47
Will Abdul El-Sayed win the 2026 Michigan Democratic Primary?	1	$104	105	0	+105	Yes	+$0	08-05 08:20
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $740 in September?	1	$97	97	0	+97	No	+$0	09-28 14:07
Will Google have the second best AI model at the end of June 2026?	1	$88	89	0	+89	No	+$0	06-30 11:43
Will OpenAI have the #1 AI model at the end of May 2026 (Style Control On)?	1	$84	84	0	+84	No	+$0	05-30 02:37
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in August?	2	$80	40	40	+0	No	+$0	09-01 03:56
Will Ukraine be the Jury Winner in the Eurovision 2026 Grand Final?	1	$79	79	0	+79	No	+$0	05-14 23:28
GRVT FDV above $100M one day after launch?	1	$77	78	0	+78	Yes	+$1	07-30 05:21
Solstice FDV above $100M one day after launch?	1	$75	80	0	+80	Yes	+$6	05-26 06:49

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
11-05 18:05:09	Will Dan Sullivan win the Alaska Senate race in 2026?	No	BUY	132	96¢	$126	0x63b760…
11-04 05:10:18	Will the Republicans win the Louisiana Senate race in 2026?	Yes	BUY	132	95¢	$126	0x1ffa18…
11-04 00:22:12	Will the Democrats win the Texas Senate race in 2026?	Yes	SELL	123	76¢	$94	0x6907c5…
11-03 14:50:28	Will the Democrats win the Texas Senate race in 2026?	Yes	BUY	123	73¢	$90	0x3d9550…
10-29 15:55:37	Will Likud win 25-29 seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	Yes	SELL	122	99¢	$121	0xb74a63…
10-29 08:06:34	Will Likud win 25-29 seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	Yes	BUY	1	98¢	$1	0xb8967d…
10-29 08:04:32	Will Likud win 25-29 seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	Yes	BUY	122	98¢	$120	0xf0d897…
10-28 06:21:19	Will Likud win 30-34 seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	No	SELL	124	99¢	$123	0x68a950…
10-27 20:54:11	Will Likud win 30-34 seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	No	BUY	7	95¢	$7	0x827aa9…
10-27 20:03:03	Will Likud win 30-34 seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	No	BUY	118	95¢	$112	0x956bb9…
10-26 00:06:44	Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Yes	BUY	117	100¢	$117	0x1bf677…
10-23 06:42:45	Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the second round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by 8–12%?	No	SELL	34	93¢	$31	0xe30d50…
10-23 06:42:44	Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the second round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by 8–12%?	No	SELL	75	93¢	$70	0x2711b1…
10-20 14:30:21	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $130 in October?	No	SELL	6	99¢	$6	0x565744…
10-19 15:28:08	Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the second round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by 8–12%?	No	BUY	109	90¢	$99	0xb3e3a8…
10-12 21:47:08	US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by October 15?	No	BUY	32	98¢	$31	0xc25841…
10-11 19:00:58	US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by October 15?	No	BUY	75	98¢	$73	0xe506e2…
10-08 13:23:24	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $130 in October?	No	BUY	6	99¢	$6	0xf2db89…
10-06 03:22:09	Next US-Iran senior diplomatic meeting by October 5, 2026?	No	BUY	112	100¢	$112	0x5e1f93…
10-05 00:49:55	Will Flavio Bolsonaro win the most votes in the first round of the 2026 Brazil presidential election?	Yes	BUY	112	100¢	$112	0xcd47eb…
10-01 00:45:12	saudi oil pipeline east west restarts by september 30	No	BUY	112	99¢	$111	0x1ac913…
09-28 14:07:53	Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $740 in September?	No	BUY	97	100¢	$97	0xe5c8f4…
09-27 07:34:32	Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of September 2026?	No	BUY	15	100¢	$15	0x29a8bc…
09-22 11:42:51	Will Xi Jinping visit US before 2027?	Yes	BUY	111	100¢	$111	0x541b9b…
09-15 22:17:46	US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by September 15?	No	BUY	111	100¢	$111	0x25b90c…
09-14 16:52:07	US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 14, 2026?	No	BUY	110	100¢	$110	0xb5a3b4…
09-10 10:56:09	LAPTOP FDV above $10M one day after launch?	Yes	SELL	60	100¢	$60	0xd371d5…
09-10 10:40:10	LAPTOP FDV above $10M one day after launch?	Yes	SELL	50	100¢	$50	0xc14f48…
09-09 18:30:10	LAPTOP FDV above $10M one day after launch?	Yes	BUY	110	100¢	$109	0x73d243…
09-07 23:26:54	US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 7, 2026?	No	BUY	99	100¢	$99	0x36c490…
09-07 23:01:13	US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 7, 2026?	No	BUY	7	100¢	$7	0x6b55da…
09-07 22:42:06	US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 7, 2026?	No	BUY	3	100¢	$3	0x235bbc…
09-07 12:37:21	US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 7, 2026?	No	SELL	64	100¢	$64	0x81ff22…
09-07 12:20:31	US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 7, 2026?	No	SELL	44	100¢	$44	0x180640…
09-03 13:29:06	US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 7, 2026?	No	BUY	108	99¢	$107	0x30fabc…
09-01 03:56:12	Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in August?	No	SELL	40	100¢	$40	0x252c0a…
08-29 17:36:57	Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in August?	No	BUY	40	100¢	$40	0xd47f14…
08-27 08:07:09	Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $690 in August?	No	BUY	27	100¢	$27	0xaf213c…
08-27 01:14:46	Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on August 31?	No	BUY	35	100¢	$35	0x556c2a…
08-25 07:13:06	Will Elon Musk post 480-499 tweets from August 21 to August 28, 2026?	Yes	BUY	200	0¢	$0	0x083ab3…
08-24 19:13:40	US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 31, 2026?	No	SELL	101	97¢	$98	0x9e5ade…
08-24 02:46:16	us announces end of iranian blockade by august 31 2026 20260713152715084 642 513 584 641 939 632 729	No	BUY	101	97¢	$98	0x5e936a…
08-22 02:54:30	will wti reach 150 in august 2026	No	BUY	4	100¢	$4	0xf1a5d3…
08-18 00:29:27	Will Byron Donalds be the Republican nominee for Florida Governor?	Yes	BUY	53	99¢	$53	0x5f37cb…
08-17 12:20:39	Will Amazon be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on August 31?	No	BUY	3	100¢	$2	0xc7450c…
08-16 07:17:46	Will the highest temperature in Munich be 35°C on August 16?	Yes	BUY	5	0¢	$0	0x9280ea…
08-16 07:17:46	Will the highest temperature in Munich be 35°C on August 16?	Yes	BUY	0	0¢	$0	0x4a704c…
08-16 07:07:03	Will the highest temperature in Munich be 35°C on August 16?	Yes	BUY	5	0¢	$0	0x25fa37…
08-16 07:07:01	Will the highest temperature in Munich be 35°C on August 16?	Yes	BUY	5	0¢	$0	0x59370f…
08-16 07:01:40	Will the highest temperature in Munich be 35°C on August 16?	Yes	BUY	5	0¢	$0	0xa3bba0…
08-16 06:51:22	Will the highest temperature in Munich be 35°C on August 16?	Yes	BUY	8	0¢	$0	0xaec84a…
08-16 06:51:22	Will the highest temperature in Munich be 35°C on August 16?	Yes	BUY	10	0¢	$0	0x92aa2a…
08-16 06:18:27	Will the highest temperature in Munich be 35°C on August 16?	Yes	BUY	5	0¢	$0	0x0afc9c…
08-16 06:18:25	Will the highest temperature in Munich be 35°C on August 16?	Yes	BUY	5	0¢	$0	0x3dd90c…
08-16 06:18:25	Will the highest temperature in Munich be 35°C on August 16?	Yes	BUY	5	0¢	$0	0x2f3888…
08-16 04:54:19	Will the highest temperature in Munich be 35°C on August 16?	Yes	BUY	5	0¢	$0	0x3b1215…
08-16 04:14:25	Will the highest temperature in Munich be 35°C on August 16?	Yes	BUY	4	0¢	$0	0x66ff03…
08-16 03:27:12	Will the highest temperature in Munich be 35°C on August 16?	Yes	BUY	7	0¢	$0	0x974526…
08-16 03:27:10	Will the highest temperature in Munich be 35°C on August 16?	Yes	BUY	5	0¢	$0	0xe5eb7d…
08-16 03:27:10	Will the highest temperature in Munich be 35°C on August 16?	Yes	BUY	5	0¢	$0	0x1e0670…
08-16 03:27:09	Will the highest temperature in Munich be 35°C on August 16?	Yes	BUY	8	0¢	$0	0xafe5f5…
08-16 03:27:09	Will the highest temperature in Munich be 35°C on August 16?	Yes	BUY	8	0¢	$0	0xaa4646…
08-16 03:27:09	Will the highest temperature in Munich be 35°C on August 16?	Yes	BUY	10	0¢	$0	0x6edea2…
08-16 03:27:09	Will the highest temperature in Munich be 35°C on August 16?	Yes	BUY	10	0¢	$0	0x1e36cd…
08-16 03:27:07	Will the highest temperature in Munich be 35°C on August 16?	Yes	BUY	10	0¢	$0	0x755e94…
08-16 03:27:07	Will the highest temperature in Munich be 35°C on August 16?	Yes	BUY	6	0¢	$0	0x6863af…
08-16 03:27:06	Will the highest temperature in Munich be 35°C on August 16?	Yes	BUY	21	0¢	$0	0xb08802…
08-16 03:27:06	Will the highest temperature in Munich be 35°C on August 16?	Yes	BUY	10	0¢	$0	0x70a547…
08-16 03:14:31	Will the highest temperature in Munich be 35°C on August 16?	Yes	BUY	20	0¢	$0	0x4f35f5…
08-16 03:14:30	Will the highest temperature in Munich be 35°C on August 16?	Yes	BUY	15	0¢	$0	0x7ffcf3…
08-16 03:14:30	Will the highest temperature in Munich be 35°C on August 16?	Yes	BUY	11	0¢	$0	0x0c342c…
08-15 19:31:06	us announces end of iranian blockade by august 15 2026 20260713152715083 347 987 697 628 574 676	No	SELL	58	99¢	$57	0xb4f856…
08-15 19:15:39	us announces end of iranian blockade by august 15 2026 20260713152715083 347 987 697 628 574 676	No	SELL	17	100¢	$17	0xa5e6c4…
08-15 19:15:25	us announces end of iranian blockade by august 15 2026 20260713152715083 347 987 697 628 574 676	No	SELL	17	100¢	$17	0xbb7ae1…
08-15 19:07:57	us announces end of iranian blockade by august 15 2026 20260713152715083 347 987 697 628 574 676	No	SELL	7	99¢	$6	0x9ba0d4…
08-15 18:56:27	us announces end of iranian blockade by august 15 2026 20260713152715083 347 987 697 628 574 676	No	SELL	2	99¢	$2	0x75da28…
08-15 18:39:48	us announces end of iranian blockade by august 15 2026 20260713152715083 347 987 697 628 574 676	No	SELL	7	100¢	$7	0xb902c6…
08-14 17:35:10	us announces end of iranian blockade by august 15 2026 20260713152715083 347 987 697 628 574 676	No	BUY	107	99¢	$106	0x33c874…
08-13 17:42:28	will wti dip to 55 in august 2026	No	BUY	1	99¢	$1	0x06e048…
08-13 11:28:06	us announces end of iranian blockade by august 13 2026	No	BUY	108	99¢	$107	0x43c668…
08-13 03:53:58	us announces end of iranian blockade by august 12 2026	No	SELL	107	100¢	$107	0xb12149…
08-12 15:01:40	us announces end of iranian blockade by august 12 2026	No	BUY	107	99¢	$106	0xf3616c…
08-11 15:22:42	us announces end of iranian blockade by august 11 2026	No	BUY	106	99¢	$105	0xf26e62…
08-07 23:35:36	grok 4pt6 released by august 7 2026 20260804192931962	No	BUY	105	100¢	$105	0x5d41e5…
08-05 08:20:50	Will Abdul El-Sayed win the 2026 Michigan Democratic Primary?	Yes	BUY	105	100¢	$104	0x8ad79d…
07-30 05:21:06	GRVT FDV above $100M one day after launch?	Yes	BUY	78	98¢	$77	0x8ef034…
07-30 02:38:15	will ethereum dip to 1400 in july 2026 711 181	No	BUY	14	100¢	$14	0x741043…
07-25 11:08:55	will bitcoin dip to 50k in july 2026 812	No	BUY	2	99¢	$2	0x64e393…
07-25 07:55:43	Will Microsoft be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on July 31?	No	BUY	2	100¢	$1	0x0b9e6e…
07-25 02:39:57	will xauusd dip to 3500 in july 2026	No	BUY	3	100¢	$2	0xfe9fe0…
07-24 02:52:52	will xagusd dip to 44 in july 2026	No	BUY	4	100¢	$4	0xa3b48d…
07-21 19:33:16	will bitcoin reach 82pt5k in july 2026	No	BUY	2	99¢	$2	0x07a2a2…
07-05 21:50:08	Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?	No	BUY	6	100¢	$6	0xc5ef79…
06-30 11:43:13	Will Google have the second best AI model at the end of June 2026?	No	BUY	89	100¢	$88	0x186f0c…
06-27 22:34:38	Will OpenAI have the second best AI model at the end of June 2026?	No	BUY	7	99¢	$7	0xcead3e…
06-27 09:19:38	Will Silver (SI) settle at <$50 in June?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x72c8cf…
05-30 02:37:53	Will OpenAI have the #1 AI model at the end of May 2026 (Style Control On)?	No	BUY	84	100¢	$84	0x6dbaaf…
05-26 06:49:48	Solstice FDV above $100M one day after launch?	Yes	BUY	80	93¢	$75	0xcdf31e…
05-23 16:11:44	Will Palantir Technologies Inc. (PLTR) hit (LOW) $108 in May?	No	BUY	3	100¢	$3	0x821804…
05-20 10:38:00	Will Solana dip to $50 in May?	No	BUY	2	99¢	$2	0x5723d7…