Unsteady-Variability — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$264

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

41.1%

Resolved

Trades

lifetime

Volume

$4.07K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$68

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-03-30

last 05-28 15:42

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 5 days

Categories

Politics

38% — —

Other

28% 0% $-3

Crypto

23% 56% $-270

Tech

7% — —

Sports

4% 100% +$9

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

10 active days in 12wk • peak 11 trades/day

Open positions Resolved markets (9) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Starmer out by May 15, 2026?	2	$405	212	212	+0	open	—	05-13 05:43
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026?	2	$378	236	236	+0	open	—	04-26 08:47
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	3	$303	265	143	+122	open	—	05-01 02:54
Will Viktor Orbán be the next leader out before 2027?	2	$300	169	169	+0	Yes	$-3	04-20 20:11
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of April 2026?	2	$272	144	144	+0	open	—	04-28 08:09
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar?	3	$253	153	153	+0	open	—	04-13 04:30
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET	4	$250	293	0	+293	Down	$-250	05-13 13:19
Will Trump say "Shakespeare" during King Charles visit?	2	$218	118	118	+0	open	—	05-01 02:33
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET	2	$200	250	0	+250	Down	+$50	05-13 13:14
Lakers vs. Thunder	2	$169	89	89	+0	Thunder	+$9	05-06 03:17
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET	6	$165	916	0	+916	open	—	05-28 15:33
Will Trump say "Iran" during King Charles visit?	1	$142	164	0	+164	open	—	04-28 08:11
trump announces end of military operations against iran by april 7th 659	2	$142	74	74	+0	open	—	04-08 04:42
US forces enter Iran by April 30?	2	$123	74	74	+0	open	—	04-05 08:44
Will Trump visit China by June 30?	2	$101	60	60	+0	open	—	04-08 14:44
XRP Up or Down - April 30, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET	1	$100	143	0	+143	open	—	05-01 02:39
Will Ukraine re-enter Rodynske by April 30?	2	$79	84	84	+0	open	—	04-23 14:12
will 60 or more ships transit the strait of hormuz between april 6 april 12	1	$73	81	0	+81	open	—	04-08 04:44
Ethereum Up or Down - May 6, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET	1	$70	128	0	+128	Up	$-70	05-06 05:16
us x iran ceasefire by march 31	1	$67	68	0	+68	open	—	03-30 05:20
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in May?	1	$50	72	0	+72	open	—	05-03 05:35
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET	1	$50	74	0	+74	Down	+$24	05-06 04:18
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in May?	2	$42	26	26	+0	open	—	05-13 05:26
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET	3	$35	108	0	+108	open	—	05-28 15:38
Ethereum Up or Down - May 12, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET	1	$25	25	0	+25	Up	+$0	05-12 20:44
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET	1	$20	43	0	+43	Down	$-20	05-06 04:17
btc updown 5m 1776953400	2	$11	6	6	+0	open	—	04-23 14:15
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET	2	$10	69	0	+69	open	—	05-28 15:42
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET	1	$7	10	0	+10	Up	$-7	05-06 07:21
btc updown 5m 1776953700	1	$6	9	0	+9	open	—	04-23 14:17

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
05-28 15:42:52	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET	Down	BUY	48	10¢	$5	0xe7e775…
05-28 15:40:53	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET	Down	BUY	21	24¢	$5	0xd31544…
05-28 15:38:19	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET	Down	BUY	50	10¢	$5	0x16a8d5…
05-28 15:36:55	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET	Up	BUY	30	83¢	$25	0xfc1803…
05-28 15:36:50	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET	Down	BUY	28	18¢	$5	0x45feff…
05-28 15:33:24	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET	Up	BUY	250	2¢	$5	0xd83c2d…
05-28 15:33:22	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET	Up	BUY	250	2¢	$5	0x0776f9…
05-28 15:33:11	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET	Up	BUY	250	2¢	$5	0xfc8fbd…
05-28 15:32:28	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET	Down	BUY	26	95¢	$25	0xa34f31…
05-28 15:32:24	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET	Down	BUY	105	95¢	$100	0x27013c…
05-28 15:31:30	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET	Down	BUY	34	73¢	$25	0x2374e1…
05-13 13:19:38	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET	Up	BUY	34	74¢	$25	0xe85a93…
05-13 13:19:38	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET	Up	BUY	33	75¢	$25	0x18c7aa…
05-13 13:18:30	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET	Up	BUY	111	90¢	$100	0x3dd4d0…
05-13 13:18:30	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET	Up	BUY	115	87¢	$100	0x212bc1…
05-13 13:14:28	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET	Down	BUY	125	80¢	$100	0x911eb7…
05-13 13:14:27	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET	Down	BUY	125	80¢	$100	0x913d81…
05-13 05:43:05	Starmer out by May 15, 2026?	No	SELL	212	97¢	$205	0x93cbba…
05-13 05:26:38	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in May?	No	SELL	26	83¢	$22	0x14f191…
05-12 20:46:34	Starmer out by May 15, 2026?	No	BUY	212	94¢	$200	0xdf6601…
05-12 20:44:51	Ethereum Up or Down - May 12, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET	Up	BUY	25	99¢	$25	0x8db44d…
05-06 07:21:18	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET	Down	BUY	10	68¢	$7	0x94a32c…
05-06 05:26:16	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET	Up	BUY	7	54¢	$4	0x07e41f…
05-06 05:23:24	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET	Down	BUY	4	95¢	$4	0xc42343…
05-06 05:16:42	Ethereum Up or Down - May 6, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET	Down	BUY	128	55¢	$70	0xc61ecd…
05-06 04:19:50	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in May?	No	BUY	26	76¢	$20	0x68e256…
05-06 04:18:34	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET	Down	BUY	74	68¢	$50	0xb7cd14…
05-06 04:17:02	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET	Up	BUY	43	47¢	$20	0x148214…
05-06 03:17:12	Lakers vs. Thunder	Thunder	SELL	89	100¢	$89	0x7b0b81…
05-06 01:46:44	Lakers vs. Thunder	Thunder	BUY	89	90¢	$80	0x995d6e…
05-03 05:35:58	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in May?	Yes	BUY	72	69¢	$50	0x028909…
05-01 02:54:54	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	122	82¢	$100	0x3a2e9c…
05-01 02:39:58	XRP Up or Down - April 30, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET	Up	BUY	143	70¢	$100	0x5053cb…
05-01 02:33:26	Will Trump say "Shakespeare" during King Charles visit?	No	SELL	118	97¢	$115	0x684fda…
04-28 09:12:14	Will Trump say "Shakespeare" during King Charles visit?	No	BUY	118	87¢	$103	0x429922…
04-28 09:12:02	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	No	SELL	143	72¢	$103	0x529545…
04-28 08:11:30	Will Trump say "Iran" during King Charles visit?	Yes	BUY	164	87¢	$142	0x62de1d…
04-28 08:09:06	Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of April 2026?	Yes	SELL	144	99¢	$142	0x4640dd…
04-26 08:49:18	Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of April 2026?	Yes	BUY	144	90¢	$130	0xef9dae…
04-26 08:49:02	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	143	70¢	$100	0x81f586…
04-26 08:47:58	US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026?	No	SELL	236	98¢	$230	0xee3846…
04-23 14:17:08	btc updown 5m 1776953700	Up	BUY	9	68¢	$6	0x30a25a…
04-23 14:15:26	btc updown 5m 1776953400	Down	SELL	6	99¢	$6	0xdd617f…
04-23 14:13:52	btc updown 5m 1776953400	Down	BUY	6	94¢	$6	0xa6ea01…
04-23 14:12:08	Will Ukraine re-enter Rodynske by April 30?	Yes	SELL	84	7¢	$6	0x4e12dd…
04-20 20:11:22	US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026?	No	BUY	236	63¢	$149	0xd7f56b…
04-20 20:11:06	Will Viktor Orbán be the next leader out before 2027?	Yes	SELL	169	88¢	$149	0x596f53…
04-13 04:31:27	Will Viktor Orbán be the next leader out before 2027?	Yes	BUY	169	90¢	$151	0xf7f794…
04-13 04:30:31	Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar?	Yes	SELL	153	99¢	$151	0x18feff…
04-08 14:45:01	Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar?	Yes	BUY	78	66¢	$51	0x3e89a4…
04-08 14:44:49	Will Trump visit China by June 30?	Yes	SELL	60	86¢	$51	0x5a523a…
04-08 04:44:01	will 60 or more ships transit the strait of hormuz between april 6 april 12	Yes	BUY	81	90¢	$73	0xd0120a…
04-08 04:42:25	trump announces end of military operations against iran by april 7th 659	No	SELL	74	100¢	$73	0x241d47…
04-05 08:48:35	Will Ukraine re-enter Rodynske by April 30?	Yes	BUY	84	87¢	$73	0xb6b57d…
04-05 08:44:29	US forces enter Iran by April 30?	Yes	SELL	74	100¢	$73	0xbc7f25…
04-01 08:38:53	trump announces end of military operations against iran by april 7th 659	No	BUY	74	93¢	$68	0xf2e472…
03-30 05:20:08	us x iran ceasefire by march 31	No	BUY	68	98¢	$67	0x001ded…
03-30 05:19:34	Will Trump visit China by June 30?	Yes	BUY	60	84¢	$50	0x639a63…
03-30 05:18:48	US forces enter Iran by April 30?	Yes	BUY	74	68¢	$50	0x680ce3…
03-30 05:15:40	Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar?	Yes	BUY	76	66¢	$50	0xa841fb…