Valid-Log — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$2

Unrealized P&L

+$3

Hit rate

80.9%

Resolved

Trades

377

lifetime

Volume

$8.80K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$23

Open exposure

$29

5 positions

First seen

2026-01-20

last 06-16 21:35

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 3 days

Categories

Other

62% 50% $-6

Politics

17% 100% +$3

Tech

8% — —

Crypto

7% — —

Sports

6% — —

Pop-Culture

0% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

33 active days in 12wk • peak 10 trades/day

Open positions (5) Resolved markets Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will any AI model reach 1520 Overall Arena Score by June 30, 2026?	No	+23	$20	97¢	$22	+$2	06-01 10:13
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	No	-10	$-4	44¢	$-4	$-0	05-30 01:28
James Comey sentenced to Prison in 2026?	Yes	-50	$-3	4¢	$-2	+$1	05-30 01:27
Will Bill Clinton be confirmed to have visited Epstein’s island?	Yes	-35	$-1	1¢	$-0	+$0	05-30 03:05
Elon Musk wins $10b+ settlement against Altman/OpenAI?	Yes	-31	$-0	0¢	$-0	+$0	05-30 03:05

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
us strike on somalia by february 7 553	2	$454	365	365	+0	open	—	02-10 09:24
will peoples party pple win the most seats in the 2026 thai legislative election	4	$438	316	316	+0	open	—	02-08 19:59
nothing ever happens january 581	3	$421	517	517	+0	open	—	01-29 09:37
will shadowrocket be 1 paid app in the us apple app store on february 13	5	$404	264	264	+0	open	—	02-12 08:02
will google gemini be 2 free app in the us apple app store on february 13	7	$308	314	182	+132	open	—	02-12 20:47
will shadowrocket be 1 paid app in the us apple app store on february 6	1	$241	319	0	+319	open	—	02-03 10:04
israel strikes iran by january 31 2026 894 994 453	1	$200	211	0	+211	open	—	01-29 09:53
will hotschedules be 1 paid app in the us apple app store on february 13	4	$195	520	520	+0	open	—	02-12 11:09
will the us next strike iran during the week of february 22 28 2026 et	9	$191	207	207	+0	open	—	02-28 06:37
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?	3	$186	106	106	+0	open	—	04-27 21:39
will nvidia be the largest company in the world by market cap on march 31 323	6	$153	86	86	+0	open	—	03-03 20:42
will alphabet be the second largest company in the world by market cap on february 28	6	$126	178	178	+0	open	—	02-23 09:28
will claude by anthropic be 2 free app in the us apple app store on march 17	4	$122	113	44	+69	open	—	03-16 20:43
Will Bitcoin dip to $72,500 in May?	3	$111	52	66	-14	open	—	06-01 09:53
will chatgpt be 2 free app in the us apple app store on march 20	5	$111	126	80	+46	open	—	03-19 20:21
will there be another us government shutdown by january 31	2	$110	414	0	+414	open	—	01-25 11:10
will nvidia be the largest company in the world by market cap on february 28 846	2	$108	60	60	+0	open	—	02-13 12:12
will bitcoin reach 72k february 9 15	2	$105	59	59	+0	open	—	02-15 03:09
will elon musks net worth be between 640b and 650b on march 31	6	$99	233	209	+24	open	—	03-28 00:29
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by May 31?	5	$98	141	141	+0	open	—	06-01 09:53
israel strikes iran by february 28 2026	5	$98	57	56	+0	open	—	02-26 08:34
will shadowrocket be 1 paid app in the us apple app store on february 27	3	$95	84	32	+52	open	—	02-27 14:34
will apple be the second largest company in the world by market cap on march 31	6	$93	90	71	+19	open	—	03-18 20:45
us forces seize another oil tanker by february 21 2026	3	$89	46	46	+0	open	—	02-22 03:06
crint nam pak 2026 02 18	3	$86	445	214	+231	open	—	02-18 09:00
trump declassifies new ufo files by march 31	2	$81	56	56	+0	open	—	02-28 05:15
will paprika recipe manager 3 be 1 paid app in the us apple app store on february 20	2	$80	41	41	+0	open	—	02-16 07:37
craus syd hob 2026 01 23	2	$72	53	53	+0	open	—	01-23 09:51
will bruno mars have the greatest number of monthly spotify listeners this month	2	$71	42	42	+0	open	—	02-23 20:46
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31?	2	$66	52	52	+0	open	—	03-06 02:18

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
06-18 14:04:35	fifwc bra hai 2026 06 19 spread home 2pt5	Brazil	BUY	10	51¢	$5	0x0ad43d…
06-16 21:35:55	will trump agree to withdraw troops from the iranian region by june 30	Yes	BUY	20	70¢	$14	0x6c884f…
06-16 08:47:31	US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	118	2¢	$2	0x49d49d…
06-15 13:34:31	will 60 ships transit the strait of hormuz on any day by june 30 2026	No	SELL	12	63¢	$8	0xc1834b…
06-13 23:40:24	f1 catalunya grand prix h2h norris vs verstappen 2026 06 14	Verstappen	BUY	8	64¢	$5	0x83dbdc…
06-13 23:35:54	f1 catalunya grand prix driver podium hamilton 2026 06 14	Yes	BUY	8	66¢	$5	0x8ea6d1…
06-13 06:07:27	fifwc esp cvi 2026 06 15 spread home 2pt5	Spain	BUY	10	52¢	$5	0x8064f6…
06-13 06:04:21	f1 catalunya grand prix safety car 2026 06 14	No	BUY	14	70¢	$10	0x324aa3…
06-04 21:52:03	will the next google gemini pro model added to the arena leaderboard debut at a score of at least 1490	No	SELL	32	9¢	$3	0xf302dc…
06-04 10:02:16	will bitcoin dip to 60k june 1 7 2026	No	BUY	46	61¢	$28	0xa3d2ea…
06-03 21:06:30	spacex ipo closing market cap above 2pt8t	No	BUY	12	81¢	$10	0xf2594b…
06-03 21:01:10	will 60 ships transit the strait of hormuz on any day by june 30 2026	No	BUY	24	82¢	$20	0xaffb2c…
06-03 17:50:24	Will the next Claude Opus 4.8 model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut at a score between 1500 and 1510?	Yes	SELL	4	67¢	$3	0xaa31d3…
06-02 21:07:40	Will the next Claude Opus 4.8 model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut at a score between 1500 and 1510?	Yes	BUY	5	55¢	$3	0xa04890…
06-02 21:07:14	Will the next Claude Opus 4.8 model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut at a score between 1500 and 1510?	Yes	BUY	7	54¢	$4	0xd7b250…
06-02 21:04:07	Ethereum flipped in 2026?	Yes	SELL	45	52¢	$23	0x8df602…
06-02 10:00:06	Will the next Google Gemini Pro model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut at a score of at least 1490?	No	BUY	32	12¢	$4	0x3356af…
06-02 02:43:48	Will the next Claude Opus 4.8 model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut at a score between 1500 and 1510?	Yes	BUY	2	57¢	$1	0x6b1985…
06-01 10:13:46	Will any AI model reach 1520 Overall Arena Score by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	23	87¢	$20	0x583c67…
06-01 10:01:26	Will the next Claude Opus 4.8 model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut at a score between 1500 and 1510?	Yes	BUY	37	54¢	$20	0xb80a22…
06-01 09:53:58	Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by May 31?	No	SELL	41	97¢	$40	0xd4c7e2…
06-01 09:53:07	Will Bitcoin dip to $72,500 in May?	No	SELL	66	100¢	$66	0x1637a7…
05-31 21:26:11	Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by May 31?	No	BUY	5	95¢	$5	0x923913…
05-31 21:25:38	Will Bitcoin dip to $72,500 in May?	No	BUY	45	90¢	$40	0x8e425e…
05-30 03:05:48	Elon Musk wins $10b+ settlement against Altman/OpenAI?	Yes	SELL	31	1¢	$0	0xc9be11…
05-30 03:05:37	Will Bill Clinton be confirmed to have visited Epstein’s island?	Yes	SELL	35	2¢	$1	0x7bb815…
05-30 01:28:33	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	No	SELL	10	40¢	$4	0x73e39f…
05-30 01:27:58	James Comey sentenced to Prison in 2026?	Yes	SELL	50	6¢	$3	0x075318…
05-30 01:22:29	Will Bitcoin dip to $72,500 in May?	No	BUY	7	67¢	$5	0xf44b3a…
05-28 21:12:05	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $85 in May?	No	SELL	21	66¢	$14	0x15c9d4…
05-26 10:08:14	Kash Patel out by May 31?	No	SELL	34	97¢	$33	0xb0a294…
05-26 10:07:53	Don Lemon charges dropped?	No	SELL	39	96¢	$38	0xd547a5…
05-26 10:06:18	Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by May 31?	No	BUY	17	87¢	$15	0xf1a452…
05-26 10:04:40	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $85 in May?	No	BUY	21	70¢	$15	0x58097b…
05-26 09:54:21	Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by May 31?	Yes	SELL	19	49¢	$9	0xc43c51…
05-25 21:46:15	Tampa Bay Rays vs. Baltimore Orioles	Tampa Bay Rays	BUY	14	37¢	$5	0x995b0e…
05-25 21:30:51	Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by May 31?	Yes	BUY	19	53¢	$10	0xe2af88…
05-25 21:30:41	Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by May 31?	No	SELL	20	47¢	$9	0x2cdfed…
05-25 21:29:06	Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by May 31?	No	BUY	20	50¢	$10	0xf830e6…
05-25 21:28:05	Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by May 31?	No	BUY	24	83¢	$20	0xd1f2a7…
05-24 21:23:45	Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 in May?	Yes	SELL	100	8¢	$8	0x8818c7…
05-24 08:32:53	Will Max Verstappen finish on the podium at the 2026 F1 Canadian Grand Prix?	No	BUY	28	81¢	$23	0x4f74b7…
05-24 08:29:42	Another GTA VI trailer released by May 31?	Yes	SELL	25	16¢	$4	0x019c1c…
05-21 10:33:03	Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 in May?	Yes	BUY	100	10¢	$10	0x2a553b…
05-21 10:32:32	Will Bitcoin dip to $75,000 in May?	Yes	BUY	18	57¢	$10	0xd23f39…
05-20 22:10:53	Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by May 31?	Yes	SELL	30	37¢	$11	0xda5d6e…
05-20 22:10:11	Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by May 31?	Yes	SELL	100	11¢	$11	0x618d7f…
05-20 22:08:17	Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by May 31?	Yes	BUY	30	37¢	$11	0x46573c…
05-20 22:07:31	Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by May 31?	Yes	BUY	100	12¢	$12	0xabd6ec…
05-18 21:48:30	Another GTA VI trailer released by May 31?	Yes	BUY	25	40¢	$10	0x69f516…
05-13 08:47:48	Confirmed case of Hantavirus in US by May 15?	No	BUY	12	59¢	$7	0xe22d66…
05-13 08:47:01	Kash Patel out by May 31?	No	BUY	34	87¢	$30	0xafe0fe…
05-06 09:33:56	Iran closes its airspace by May 8?	No	SELL	16	94¢	$15	0x56fc4f…
05-05 09:33:58	Francavilla: Alex Barrena vs August Holmgren	Alex Barrena	BUY	20	51¢	$10	0xcc7cc3…
05-04 21:43:54	Iran closes its airspace by May 8?	No	BUY	16	73¢	$12	0x51a693…
05-02 00:03:08	Counter-Strike: Astralis vs GamerLegion (BO3) - BLAST Rivals Playoffs	Astralis	BUY	4	75¢	$3	0x8398d2…
04-29 22:05:20	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in April?	Yes	BUY	16	64¢	$10	0x95724f…
04-28 07:01:26	Club Atlético de Madrid vs. Arsenal FC: Both Teams to Score	Yes	BUY	10	51¢	$5	0xf7195a…
04-28 06:58:50	Huzhou: Hanyu Guo vs Dalila Jakupovic	Dalila Jakupovic	BUY	50	10¢	$5	0xabd022…
04-27 21:50:52	Abidjan 2: Maks Kasnikowski vs Cesar Bouchelaghem	Cesar Bouchelaghem	BUY	51	4¢	$2	0x79738f…
04-27 21:44:28	Madrid Open: Anastasia Potapova vs Elena Rybakina	Anastasia Potapova	BUY	54	37¢	$20	0xdf7d3e…
04-27 21:39:44	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?	No	SELL	106	100¢	$105	0x1f9a16…
04-23 09:45:42	Will the Kharg Island oil terminal be hit by April 30?	Yes	SELL	100	8¢	$8	0xe62427…
04-20 10:04:14	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?	No	BUY	81	75¢	$60	0x53d522…
04-19 10:17:40	Will the Reserve Bank of Australia increase the target for the cash rate after the May Meeting?	Yes	BUY	19	77¢	$15	0x4d5f4e…
04-19 10:14:02	Will the Kharg Island oil terminal be hit by April 30?	Yes	BUY	100	10¢	$10	0xe195e6…
04-19 10:11:50	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?	No	BUY	25	79¢	$20	0x1df6ad…
04-19 10:03:24	Will Apple be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on April 30?	Yes	BUY	25	80¢	$20	0xb12fc8…
03-31 09:38:59	will shadowrocket be 1 paid app in the us apple app store on march 31	No	BUY	67	93¢	$63	0xeb821b…
03-29 06:48:18	f1 japanese grand prix winner russell 2026 03 29	No	SELL	33	100¢	$33	0x818a13…
03-29 06:47:18	f1 japanese grand prix h2h hamilton vs russell 2026 03 29	Hamilton	SELL	20	2¢	$0	0x9a2969…
03-29 06:46:22	f1 japanese grand prix h2h lindblad vs lawson 2026 03 29	Lindblad	SELL	9	2¢	$0	0x93e4e8…
03-29 06:45:20	f1 japanese grand prix h2h leclerc vs hamilton 2026 03 29	Hamilton	SELL	11	1¢	$0	0x280739…
03-28 00:47:25	f1 japanese grand prix h2h hamilton vs russell 2026 03 29	Hamilton	BUY	20	25¢	$5	0x078e43…
03-28 00:45:59	f1 japanese grand prix h2h lindblad vs lawson 2026 03 29	Lindblad	BUY	9	58¢	$5	0x090517…
03-28 00:42:53	f1 japanese grand prix h2h leclerc vs hamilton 2026 03 29	Hamilton	BUY	11	46¢	$5	0xb5c324…
03-28 00:40:23	f1 japanese grand prix winner leclerc 2026 03 29	Yes	SELL	58	3¢	$2	0x57205c…
03-28 00:40:11	f1 japanese grand prix winner hamilton 2026 03 29	Yes	SELL	62	4¢	$2	0x022415…
03-28 00:31:31	will crude oil cl hit high 105 by end of march 881	Yes	BUY	43	47¢	$20	0x7f224d…
03-28 00:30:29	will crude oil cl hit high 100 by end of march 658 396 769 971	Yes	BUY	26	76¢	$20	0xecdd6b…
03-28 00:29:13	will elon musks net worth be between 640b and 650b on march 31	No	BUY	24	83¢	$20	0xeedda9…
03-28 00:28:17	will elon musks net worth be less than 640b on march 31	Yes	BUY	63	63¢	$40	0x950f2d…
03-28 00:27:49	will elon musks net worth be between 640b and 650b on march 31	Yes	SELL	173	19¢	$33	0x9adc51…
03-27 21:12:15	will elon musks net worth be between 640b and 650b on march 31	Yes	BUY	136	22¢	$30	0xff16a4…
03-27 21:09:21	will elon musks net worth be at least 710b on march 31	No	SELL	37	95¢	$35	0xad34d6…
03-27 21:09:07	tulsi gabbard out by march 31	No	SELL	26	97¢	$25	0x68c1ea…
03-27 21:08:57	will elon musks net worth be between 660b and 670b on march 31	No	SELL	23	96¢	$22	0x79e1e2…
03-27 21:08:43	us x iran ceasefire by april 30	Yes	SELL	10	39¢	$4	0x49fcd6…
03-27 21:07:57	Will Google have the #1 AI model at the end of April 2026 (Style Control On)?	Yes	SELL	71	6¢	$4	0x692063…
03-27 21:07:35	will bitcoin reach 76k march 23 29	No	SELL	12	99¢	$12	0xd8f9a3…
03-26 20:32:03	will bitcoin dip to 66k march 23 29	No	BUY	16	74¢	$12	0x1d13cb…
03-26 20:31:11	will bitcoin dip to 66k march 23 29	Yes	SELL	44	27¢	$12	0x3d1ff4…
03-26 20:29:23	will bitcoin dip to 66k march 23 29	Yes	BUY	44	31¢	$14	0x304f59…
03-26 20:26:25	will gold gc hit low 4300 by end of march	No	SELL	25	54¢	$14	0x212594…
03-26 08:38:29	will elon musks net worth be between 640b and 650b on march 31	Yes	BUY	37	20¢	$7	0xc25d48…
03-26 08:33:37	will gold gc hit low 4300 by end of march	No	BUY	25	79¢	$20	0xbc053e…
03-26 08:32:05	will bitcoin reach 74k march 23 29	Yes	SELL	26	20¢	$5	0x622cee…
03-25 20:24:45	will bitcoin reach 76k march 23 29	No	BUY	12	85¢	$10	0x9dac95…
03-25 20:23:07	will bitcoin reach 74k march 23 29	Yes	BUY	27	37¢	$10	0x4222b4…
03-25 20:20:35	will claude by anthropic be 2 free app in the us apple app store on march 27	No	BUY	67	15¢	$10	0x9cc355…