Soggy-Ephyra — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$69

Unrealized P&L

+$0

Hit rate

16.3%

Resolved

Trades

149

lifetime

Volume

$959

lifetime

Avg / trade

Open exposure

1 position

First seen

2026-04-27

last 11-03 19:43

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 29 days

Categories

Other

46% 9% -$48

Politics

42% 20% -$12

Tech

9% 33% -$8

Sports

3% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

7 active days in 12wk • peak 3 trades/day

Open positions (1) Resolved markets (26) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will Jean-Luc Mélenchon win the 2027 French presidential election?	No		+8	$7	86¢	$7	+$0	11-03 19:43

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Will Indiana use a new congressional map for the 2026 United States midterm elections?	9	$118	100	100	+0	No	-$2	05-04 08:06
Will Maddy Perez die in Euphoria: Season 3?	12	$39	119	119	+0	No	-$7	05-04 07:50
Will Russia capture all of Rodynske again by June 30?	4	$34	39	39	+0	No	-$2	05-06 01:25
Will OL Lyonnes win the 2026-27 UEFA Women's Champions League?	2	$32	25	25	+0	open	—	10-01 19:39
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by June 30, 2026?	5	$32	31	31	+0	Yes	$0	05-06 09:55
Will the next model released by xAI debut at a score of at least 1480?	2	$31	20	20	+0	No	+$1	05-03 05:28
Will the Republican Party hold between 190 and 194 House seats after the 2026 midterm elections?	2	$31	20	20	+0	No	$0	05-02 18:05
Will Trump speak to Elon Musk in May?	2	$30	20	20	+0	Yes	+$1	05-02 06:54
Will Silver (SI) settle at $70-$80 in June?	2	$30	20	20	+0	No	$0	05-05 08:16
Will Trump speak to Ursula von der Leyen in May?	2	$28	20	20	+0	Yes	-$2	05-03 19:07
Will the next model released by OpenAI debut at a score of at least 1470?	2	$28	20	20	+0	No	-$2	05-06 13:27
Will the Senate pass a reconciliation bill by May 22?	2	$27	20	20	+0	No	+$0	05-05 19:50
Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 AL-07 House election by 35%-40%?	2	$27	20	20	+0	open	—	09-29 17:52
Chirayu Rana fired?	2	$26	22	22	+0	cancelled	-$1	05-01 06:51
Will MrBeast's next video get between 80 and 90 million views on week 1?	9	$25	63	63	+0	Yes	-$4	05-06 09:55
Will Russia enter Novooleksandrivka by May 31, 2026?	5	$25	37	37	+0	No	-$1	05-05 13:29
Will Sorin Grindeanu be the next Prime Minister of Romania?	2	$25	19	19	+0	No	-$1	05-06 06:28
Will Donald Trump visit China on May 13, 2026?	4	$24	19	19	+0	Yes	$0	04-29 18:53
Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by September 30?	2	$23	20	5	+15	No	+$2	09-29 10:33
Will USD reach 2.0M Iranian rials by May 31?	2	$19	21	21	+0	No	-$5	05-02 14:35
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $700 in May?	2	$19	23	23	+0	No	$0	05-02 11:29
Will Trump speak to Friedrich Merz in May?	2	$19	20	20	+0	Yes	-$2	05-02 14:35
Will Jake Ferguson have 724.5+ receiving yards in the 2026-27 NFL regular season?	2	$18	20	20	+0	open	—	10-07 02:44
Will Russia capture all of Rodynske again by May 31?	2	$17	20	20	+0	No	-$1	05-06 00:58
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in May?	2	$14	12	12	+0	No	+$0	04-29 18:54
Nothing Ever Happens: May	2	$13	21	21	+0	Nothing	-$1	05-01 10:58
Fed rate cut by December 2026 meeting?	2	$13	15	15	+0	open	—	04-29 18:53
Will Kerry-Lynne Findlay win the 2026 Conservative Party of British Columbia leadership election?	2	$13	30	30	+0	Yes	-$1	04-28 08:09
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (HIGH) $730 in May?	2	$12	21	21	+0	Yes	-$2	05-05 17:42
Will the DHS shutdown end between April 27-May 3 2026?	3	$11	36	36	+0	Yes	-$11	04-30 18:10

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
11-03 19:43:18	Will Jean-Luc Mélenchon win the 2027 French presidential election?	No	BUY	8	86¢	$7	0xfc735b…
10-07 02:44:03	Will Jake Ferguson have 724.5+ receiving yards in the 2026-27 NFL regular season?	No	SELL	20	16¢	$3	0x524a2c…
10-07 02:44:00	Will Jake Ferguson have 724.5+ receiving yards in the 2026-27 NFL regular season?	No	BUY	20	76¢	$15	0xcb0d08…
10-06 22:13:50	Will Bekim Sejdiu be the next President of Kosovo?	Yes	SELL	32	11¢	$4	0x9a9080…
10-06 22:13:45	Will Bekim Sejdiu be the next President of Kosovo?	Yes	BUY	32	15¢	$5	0x996e97…
10-05 23:48:20	Will Jynxzi, Ron, and Los have between 60 and 89 Minecraft deaths during the marathon?	Yes	SELL	30	2¢	$1	0x3a96ba…
10-05 23:47:28	Will Jynxzi, Ron, and Los have between 60 and 89 Minecraft deaths during the marathon?	Yes	BUY	30	17¢	$5	0xbadb17…
10-04 22:10:07	will spacexai officially rename itself to spacexsi by october 15	Yes	SELL	8	15¢	$1	0xfa59c8…
10-04 22:09:07	will spacexai officially rename itself to spacexsi by october 15	Yes	BUY	8	16¢	$1	0x068f65…
10-01 19:39:41	Will OL Lyonnes win the 2026-27 UEFA Women's Champions League?	No	SELL	25	53¢	$13	0xfbb3f8…
10-01 19:39:39	Will OL Lyonnes win the 2026-27 UEFA Women's Champions League?	No	BUY	25	75¢	$19	0xcd52ef…
09-29 17:52:08	Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 AL-07 House election by 35%-40%?	No	SELL	20	58¢	$12	0x3aa09e…
09-29 17:19:38	Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 AL-07 House election by 35%-40%?	No	BUY	20	75¢	$15	0x02c20e…
09-29 10:33:08	Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by September 30?	No	SELL	5	100¢	$5	0xd385ff…
07-21 17:49:16	tesla and spacex merger officially announced by september 30	No	BUY	20	88¢	$18	0x8c495b…
05-06 13:27:24	Will the next model released by OpenAI debut at a score of at least 1470?	No	SELL	20	63¢	$13	0x0c2b63…
05-06 13:27:10	Will the next model released by OpenAI debut at a score of at least 1470?	No	BUY	20	75¢	$15	0xbc52db…
05-06 12:45:24	Will OpenAI announce earbuds or headphones in 2026?	Yes	SELL	20	17¢	$3	0x1c793b…
05-06 12:45:06	Will OpenAI announce earbuds or headphones in 2026?	Yes	BUY	20	19¢	$4	0x330bd8…
05-06 10:43:28	Will Silver (SI) settle at $60-$70 in June?	Yes	SELL	20	19¢	$4	0x986039…
05-06 10:05:00	Will Silver (SI) settle at $60-$70 in June?	Yes	BUY	20	19¢	$4	0x8f8630…
05-06 09:55:38	Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by June 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	1	72¢	$1	0x64d1d5…
05-06 09:55:14	Will MrBeast's next video get between 80 and 90 million views on week 1?	Yes	SELL	3	34¢	$1	0xd8725f…
05-06 09:14:00	Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by June 30, 2026?	No	SELL	10	23¢	$2	0x9ae0b2…
05-06 09:13:26	Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	10	24¢	$2	0xe77beb…
05-06 07:45:20	Will MrBeast's next video get between 80 and 90 million views on week 1?	Yes	BUY	2	31¢	$1	0x7c593a…
05-06 06:54:44	Will MrBeast's next video get between 80 and 90 million views on week 1?	Yes	SELL	48	14¢	$7	0xcb4856…
05-06 06:54:20	Will MrBeast's next video get between 80 and 90 million views on week 1?	Yes	BUY	48	23¢	$11	0x61e6a5…
05-06 06:50:44	Will MrBeast's next video get between 80 and 90 million views on week 1?	Yes	SELL	6	24¢	$1	0x8781da…
05-06 06:50:16	Will MrBeast's next video get between 80 and 90 million views on week 1?	Yes	BUY	6	23¢	$1	0x061442…
05-06 06:49:14	Will MrBeast's next video get between 80 and 90 million views on week 1?	Yes	SELL	6	24¢	$2	0x929f64…
05-06 06:48:48	Will MrBeast's next video get between 80 and 90 million views on week 1?	Yes	BUY	6	23¢	$1	0x01ee73…
05-06 06:28:14	Will Sorin Grindeanu be the next Prime Minister of Romania?	No	SELL	19	62¢	$12	0x423808…
05-06 06:28:00	Will Sorin Grindeanu be the next Prime Minister of Romania?	No	BUY	19	69¢	$13	0xec5004…
05-06 02:56:32	Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by June 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	20	63¢	$13	0x8c3f47…
05-06 02:56:14	Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	21	65¢	$14	0xfb2102…
05-06 01:25:10	Will Russia capture all of Rodynske again by June 30?	Yes	SELL	22	42¢	$9	0x060242…
05-06 01:23:42	Will Russia capture all of Rodynske again by June 30?	Yes	BUY	22	46¢	$10	0xd8e6fb…
05-06 00:58:10	Will Russia capture all of Rodynske again by June 30?	No	SELL	17	39¢	$7	0xabb865…
05-06 00:58:10	Will Russia capture all of Rodynske again by May 31?	Yes	SELL	20	39¢	$8	0x67402a…
05-06 00:57:42	Will Russia capture all of Rodynske again by June 30?	No	BUY	17	46¢	$8	0x519ba8…
05-06 00:57:38	Will Russia capture all of Rodynske again by May 31?	Yes	BUY	20	45¢	$9	0x6a27c0…
05-05 19:50:40	Will the Senate pass a reconciliation bill by May 22?	Yes	SELL	20	69¢	$14	0x83d636…
05-05 19:50:14	Will the Senate pass a reconciliation bill by May 22?	Yes	BUY	20	68¢	$14	0x4ed77d…
05-05 18:52:38	Will MrBeast's next video get between 80 and 90 million views on week 1?	Yes	BUY	1	35¢	$0	0xa3c25f…
05-05 17:42:00	Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (HIGH) $730 in May?	No	SELL	21	24¢	$5	0x2c575f…
05-05 16:43:46	Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (HIGH) $730 in May?	No	BUY	21	35¢	$7	0x5cca74…
05-05 14:17:06	Trump orders federal review of AI model releases by May 31?	Yes	SELL	20	25¢	$5	0x3f9bf2…
05-05 14:15:30	Will MrBeast's next video get 90 million or more views on week 1?	No	SELL	10	40¢	$4	0x651233…
05-05 14:01:00	Trump orders federal review of AI model releases by May 31?	Yes	BUY	20	26¢	$5	0x024732…
05-05 13:29:30	Will Russia enter Novooleksandrivka by May 31, 2026?	No	SELL	20	25¢	$5	0xa13735…
05-05 13:14:32	Will MrBeast's next video get 90 million or more views on week 1?	No	BUY	10	41¢	$4	0x70bab9…
05-05 13:00:22	Will Russia enter Novooleksandrivka by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	0	31¢	$0	0x7b887c…
05-05 12:28:56	Will Russia enter Novooleksandrivka by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	20	31¢	$6	0x71eb64…
05-05 08:16:48	Will Silver (SI) settle at $70-$80 in June?	No	SELL	20	75¢	$15	0xf8edf2…
05-05 07:26:46	Will Silver (SI) settle at $70-$80 in June?	No	BUY	20	75¢	$15	0x8d9378…
05-04 10:55:54	Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,500 in May?	No	SELL	12	25¢	$3	0x5c4fb1…
05-04 10:20:40	Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,500 in May?	No	BUY	12	34¢	$4	0xc9e2b5…
05-04 08:06:50	Will Indiana use a new congressional map for the 2026 United States midterm elections?	No	SELL	20	67¢	$13	0x3727c2…
05-04 08:03:18	Will Indiana use a new congressional map for the 2026 United States midterm elections?	No	BUY	20	72¢	$14	0xdb2773…
05-04 07:50:20	Will Maddy Perez die in Euphoria: Season 3?	Yes	SELL	27	11¢	$3	0x947b1a…
05-04 07:44:00	Will Maddy Perez die in Euphoria: Season 3?	Yes	SELL	5	18¢	$1	0x99afd9…
05-04 07:42:08	Will Maddy Perez die in Euphoria: Season 3?	Yes	SELL	5	18¢	$1	0x73d790…
05-04 07:36:54	Will Maddy Perez die in Euphoria: Season 3?	Yes	SELL	5	19¢	$1	0xadf6c9…
05-04 07:35:44	Will Maddy Perez die in Euphoria: Season 3?	Yes	SELL	6	11¢	$1	0x2d6fb9…
05-04 07:26:04	Will Maddy Perez die in Euphoria: Season 3?	Yes	BUY	25	19¢	$5	0xf9effa…
05-04 07:25:38	Will Maddy Perez die in Euphoria: Season 3?	Yes	SELL	23	21¢	$5	0x8c0e36…
05-04 07:25:28	Will Maddy Perez die in Euphoria: Season 3?	Yes	BUY	23	20¢	$5	0x83ed6f…
05-04 07:24:38	Will Maddy Perez die in Euphoria: Season 3?	Yes	BUY	23	20¢	$5	0x7dfaf9…
05-04 07:01:02	Will Indiana use a new congressional map for the 2026 United States midterm elections?	Yes	SELL	22	18¢	$4	0x3bbaf2…
05-04 06:58:38	Will Indiana use a new congressional map for the 2026 United States midterm elections?	Yes	BUY	22	23¢	$5	0xa98163…
05-04 06:11:48	Will Indiana use a new congressional map for the 2026 United States midterm elections?	No	SELL	42	69¢	$29	0xca7f2d…
05-04 06:11:36	Will Indiana use a new congressional map for the 2026 United States midterm elections?	No	BUY	21	70¢	$15	0x28703b…
05-04 06:06:30	Will Indiana use a new congressional map for the 2026 United States midterm elections?	No	BUY	21	70¢	$15	0x79882d…
05-04 06:01:58	Will Indiana use a new congressional map for the 2026 United States midterm elections?	No	SELL	16	71¢	$11	0x10f99d…
05-04 06:01:02	Will Indiana use a new congressional map for the 2026 United States midterm elections?	No	BUY	16	71¢	$11	0x200fa3…
05-04 04:32:20	Will Simone Venturini win the 2026 Venice mayoral election?	Yes	SELL	25	12¢	$3	0x58db7c…
05-04 04:29:08	Will LIV Golf announce shutdown in 2026?	No	SELL	14	16¢	$2	0x8db91f…
05-04 04:28:38	Will Maddy Perez die in Euphoria: Season 3?	Yes	SELL	48	11¢	$5	0x3d8cd2…
05-04 04:06:06	Will LIV Golf announce shutdown in 2026?	No	BUY	14	17¢	$2	0xc06727…
05-03 23:16:20	Will Maddy Perez die in Euphoria: Season 3?	Yes	BUY	25	17¢	$4	0x8dcc66…
05-03 23:11:06	Will Maddy Perez die in Euphoria: Season 3?	Yes	BUY	23	20¢	$5	0xc94be7…
05-03 21:50:56	Will Simone Venturini win the 2026 Venice mayoral election?	Yes	BUY	25	18¢	$4	0x9ac940…
05-03 19:07:12	Will Trump speak to Ursula von der Leyen in May?	No	SELL	20	64¢	$13	0xe42803…
05-03 18:06:10	Will Trump speak to Ursula von der Leyen in May?	No	BUY	20	75¢	$15	0x9a4d0c…
05-03 05:29:18	Will Trump speak to Maria Corina Machado in May?	Yes	SELL	31	9¢	$3	0xba6ed8…
05-03 05:28:38	Will the next model released by xAI debut at a score of at least 1480?	No	SELL	20	81¢	$16	0x942101…
05-03 05:01:46	Will Trump speak to Maria Corina Machado in May?	Yes	BUY	10	16¢	$2	0x0c9930…
05-03 05:01:40	Will Trump speak to Maria Corina Machado in May?	Yes	BUY	14	16¢	$2	0xb5dabd…
05-03 05:01:30	Will Trump speak to Maria Corina Machado in May?	Yes	BUY	7	16¢	$1	0x567852…
05-03 01:27:16	Will the next model released by xAI debut at a score of at least 1480?	No	BUY	20	76¢	$15	0xcede8e…
05-02 18:08:28	Will Trump speak to Masoud Pezeshkian in May?	Yes	SELL	11	13¢	$1	0xd47e98…
05-02 18:06:48	Will Trump speak to Masoud Pezeshkian in May?	Yes	SELL	6	14¢	$1	0xd67b02…
05-02 18:05:40	Will the Republican Party hold between 190 and 194 House seats after the 2026 midterm elections?	No	SELL	20	76¢	$15	0xc03d33…
05-02 18:02:00	Will Trump speak to Masoud Pezeshkian in May?	Yes	SELL	14	15¢	$2	0xde73e7…
05-02 18:01:00	Will Trump speak to Masoud Pezeshkian in May?	Yes	BUY	1	16¢	$0	0x27351f…
05-02 17:49:28	Will the Republican Party hold between 190 and 194 House seats after the 2026 midterm elections?	No	BUY	20	77¢	$15	0x233203…
05-02 17:48:16	Will Trump speak to Masoud Pezeshkian in May?	Yes	BUY	30	16¢	$5	0xbba405…
05-02 14:35:50	Will Trump speak to Friedrich Merz in May?	No	SELL	20	42¢	$8	0x526f20…
05-02 14:35:22	Will USD reach 2.0M Iranian rials by May 31?	No	SELL	21	35¢	$7	0xed0cd0…