Circular-Special — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$567

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

62.3%

Resolved

269

Trades

331

lifetime

Volume

$48.6K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$147

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-01-13

last 09-04 11:48

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 117 days

Categories

Crypto

51% 73% -$54

Sports

26% 21% +$9

Other

20% 65% +$609

Politics

4% 62% +$3

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

3 active days in 12wk • peak 1 trade/day

Open positions Resolved markets (30) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Will the Phoenix Suns win the 2026 NBA Finals?	2	$1.5K	762	762	+0	No	-$1	03-31 04:41
Will Armenia win Eurovision 2026?	2	$1.5K	758	758	+0	No	-$1	03-29 08:20
Will the Portland Trail Blazers win the 2026 NBA Finals?	2	$1.5K	750	750	+0	No	-$1	03-28 11:55
Will the Golden State Warriors win the 2026 NBA Finals?	2	$1.5K	749	749	+0	No	-$1	03-28 12:12
Will Georgia win Eurovision 2026?	2	$1.5K	742	742	+0	No	-$1	03-25 06:35
Will Atalanta win the 2025–26 Champions League?	2	$1.4K	730	730	+0	No	-$1	03-09 08:11
xrp above 1 on february 13	1	$615	616	0	+616	Yes	+$1	02-13 07:35
will the price of ethereum be between 2100 2200 on february 25	1	$564	564	0	+564	No	+$1	02-25 10:57
Will Wolves win the 2025–26 English Premier League?	4	$516	259	258	+0	No	$0	01-30 08:56
will bitcoin reach 69k on march 27	1	$500	500	0	+500	No	+$1	03-28 02:09
Will the Sacramento Kings win the 2026 NBA Finals?	4	$461	231	231	+0	No	$0	01-13 12:33
ethereum above 1800 on march 28	1	$446	447	0	+447	Yes	+$0	03-28 12:16
will the price of bitcoin be greater than 78000 on march 13	1	$432	433	0	+433	No	+$0	03-13 12:06
bitcoin above 64k on february 26	1	$425	425	0	+425	Yes	+$0	02-26 16:17
bitcoin above 62k on march 31	1	$424	424	0	+424	Yes	+$0	03-31 04:55
will the price of bitcoin be between 72000 74000 on february 11	1	$420	420	0	+420	No	+$0	02-11 12:43
Will Sporting win the 2025–26 Champions League?	4	$401	201	201	+0	No	$0	01-15 09:10
will bitcoin dip to 60k march 16 22	1	$400	400	0	+400	No	+$0	03-22 13:01
will josh safdie win best director at the 98th academy awards	1	$399	400	0	+400	No	+$1	03-14 12:15
bitcoin above 66k on march 10	1	$396	396	0	+396	Yes	+$1	03-10 12:43
bitcoin above 62k on march 30	1	$390	391	0	+391	Yes	+$1	03-30 07:02
bitcoin above 64k on march 24	1	$389	389	0	+389	Yes	+$0	03-24 04:10
will the price of bitcoin be less than 62000 on march 12	1	$388	388	0	+388	No	+$0	03-12 09:12
bitcoin above 62k on march 27	1	$380	380	0	+380	Yes	+$0	03-27 09:04
Will Vladimir Putin win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?	4	$376	189	189	+0	No	$0	05-20 06:28
will the price of ethereum be between 1800 1900 on march 21	1	$374	374	0	+374	No	+$0	03-21 03:22
will the price of bitcoin be between 60000 62000 on march 8	1	$369	369	0	+369	No	+$0	03-08 06:55
ethereum above 1800 on march 30	1	$366	367	0	+367	Yes	+$1	03-30 07:05
will the price of bitcoin be between 76000 78000 on march 24	1	$357	358	0	+358	No	+$0	03-24 04:14
will the price of ethereum be between 1600 1700 on march 8	1	$350	351	0	+351	No	+$0	03-08 07:01

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
10-30 15:25:37	Will US Dollar Index (DXY) hit (HIGH) 105.50 in October?	No	BUY	89	100¢	$89	0xb8ad8e…
09-04 11:48:16	Will Alphabet Inc. (GOOGL) hit (LOW) $310 Week of August 31 2026?	No	BUY	89	100¢	$89	0xa80a99…
08-11 07:45:28	will wti dip to 50 by august 10 2026	No	BUY	89	100¢	$89	0x946547…
07-10 08:20:38	will bitcoin reach 76k july 6 12 2026	No	BUY	89	100¢	$89	0x503c37…
06-05 13:13:37	will spy dip to 725 by june 1 2026	No	BUY	89	100¢	$89	0x85ca1d…
06-01 08:01:59	Miami Marlins vs. Washington Nationals	Miami Marlins	BUY	9	44¢	$4	0xca7dc4…
05-31 04:53:44	Will the Bitcoin Volatility Index hit 60 by May 31?	No	BUY	47	100¢	$47	0x6d5925…
05-31 04:50:45	Vicenza: Jacopo Vasami vs Lukas Neumayer	Lukas Neumayer	BUY	12	67¢	$8	0x7bd766…
05-30 05:38:06	Will the price of Bitcoin be between $68,000 and $70,000 on May 30?	No	BUY	56	100¢	$56	0x92cbb2…
05-30 05:36:27	Will Cadillac be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion?	No	SELL	56	99¢	$56	0xca69ac…
05-30 05:09:21	Will Cadillac be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion?	No	BUY	56	100¢	$56	0x232601…
05-30 05:04:13	Roland Garros WTA: Maria Sakkari vs Maja Chwalinska	Maria Sakkari	BUY	14	47¢	$6	0x3bd4d0…
05-30 04:58:56	Will Mistral have the #3 AI model at the end of May 2026 (Style Control On)?	No	BUY	12	100¢	$12	0x370c6e…
05-29 04:37:25	Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026?	No	BUY	59	100¢	$59	0x1e4c30…
05-29 04:34:18	Will Noh Yeong-min win the 2026 Chungcheongbuk Province gubernatorial election?	No	BUY	12	100¢	$12	0x5d9a12…
05-28 09:30:32	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on May 28?	Yes	BUY	71	100¢	$71	0xc341f0…
05-28 09:25:36	Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 29°C or higher on May 28?	No	BUY	15	100¢	$15	0x1af9a0…
05-28 09:20:51	Indiana Fever vs. Golden State Valkyries	Indiana Fever	BUY	15	48¢	$7	0xaee943…
05-28 09:17:24	Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	No	SELL	94	99¢	$93	0xf6a10d…
05-28 08:48:41	Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	No	BUY	94	99¢	$93	0xacdc35…
05-27 06:26:41	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on May 27?	Yes	BUY	94	100¢	$94	0xf4ff01…
05-27 06:22:23	LoL: Barcząca Esports vs Forsaken (BO5) - Rift Legends Playoffs	Barcząca Esports	BUY	14	57¢	$8	0x143359…
05-27 06:17:07	Will António Guterres win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?	No	SELL	102	99¢	$101	0x6d8000…
05-27 04:27:07	Will António Guterres win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?	No	BUY	102	100¢	$101	0xcba023…
05-27 04:25:35	Will Khaled Mashal win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?	No	SELL	102	99¢	$101	0x66a837…
05-27 04:07:00	Will Khaled Mashal win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?	No	BUY	102	100¢	$101	0x04c101…
05-27 04:02:51	Will Nooshi Dadgostar be the next Prime Minister of Sweden?	No	SELL	102	100¢	$102	0x0fa0af…
05-26 12:53:33	Will Nooshi Dadgostar be the next Prime Minister of Sweden?	No	BUY	102	100¢	$102	0xc8277c…
05-26 12:47:30	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 26?	Yes	BUY	1,595	0¢	$3	0x29e672…
05-26 12:37:23	Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026?	Yes	BUY	1,420	0¢	$3	0xdcffac…
05-24 10:50:47	Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 23?	Yes	BUY	108	100¢	$108	0x2a3797…
05-24 10:49:02	Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election?	No	SELL	109	99¢	$108	0xa079e4…
05-24 10:33:59	Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election?	No	BUY	109	99¢	$108	0x735ae8…
05-23 12:45:58	Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 22?	Yes	BUY	108	100¢	$108	0x86f396…
05-22 04:52:45	Will Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN) hit (LOW) $244 Week of May 18 2026?	No	BUY	108	100¢	$108	0x759a73…
05-21 12:01:31	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 21?	No	BUY	94	100¢	$94	0x586616…
05-21 09:20:29	Counter-Strike: MASQ vs NAVI Junior (BO3) - United21 Playoffs	NAVI Junior	BUY	13	76¢	$10	0x929dad…
05-20 06:39:53	Will the price of Bitcoin be between $72,000 and $74,000 on May 20?	No	BUY	105	100¢	$104	0xee5abf…
05-20 06:33:31	Roland Garros, Qualification ATP: Federico Cina vs Bernard Tomic	Bernard Tomic	BUY	7	18¢	$1	0xc14c18…
05-20 06:28:04	Will Vladimir Putin win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?	No	SELL	106	99¢	$105	0x8375ac…
05-20 06:03:29	Will Vladimir Putin win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?	No	BUY	106	99¢	$105	0xf2bfb3…
05-19 11:22:59	Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on May 19?	Yes	BUY	106	100¢	$106	0x9dba2b…
05-19 11:19:27	Will the Tennessee Titans win the 2027 NFL league championship?	No	SELL	106	99¢	$105	0xc93a46…
05-19 10:56:49	Will the Tennessee Titans win the 2027 NFL league championship?	No	BUY	106	99¢	$105	0xd17d12…
05-18 06:55:41	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on May 18?	No	BUY	95	100¢	$94	0x44c90c…
05-18 06:53:31	Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	No	SELL	95	99¢	$94	0x3c0261…
05-18 06:37:52	Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	No	BUY	95	99¢	$94	0x7a9bea…
05-18 06:33:38	Geneva Open: Arthur Rinderknech vs Thiago Agustin Tirante	Arthur Rinderknech	BUY	11	40¢	$4	0x409fb7…
05-17 12:12:11	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 17?	Yes	BUY	98	100¢	$98	0xe80975…
05-16 10:43:53	Will Serbia win Eurovision 2026?	No	BUY	99	100¢	$99	0xd52311…
05-15 05:50:20	Will Opendoor Technologies Inc. (OPEN) hit (LOW) $3.25 Week of May 11 2026?	No	BUY	99	100¢	$99	0xbc9aa7…
05-14 11:38:27	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 14?	Yes	BUY	99	99¢	$98	0x14f07c…
05-14 11:36:26	Will Latvia be the Jury Winner in the Eurovision 2026 Grand Final?	No	SELL	98	100¢	$98	0x457c55…
05-14 11:18:12	Will Latvia be the Jury Winner in the Eurovision 2026 Grand Final?	No	BUY	98	100¢	$98	0x2f77a3…
05-13 11:51:42	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on May 13?	No	BUY	98	100¢	$98	0x2fdb1a…
05-12 09:41:20	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on May 12?	No	BUY	98	100¢	$98	0xf315de…
05-11 07:46:22	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 11, 2026?	No	BUY	91	100¢	$91	0x9ea8bb…
05-11 07:42:28	Will Enrique Peñalosa win the 1st round of the 2026 Colombian presidential election?	No	SELL	90	100¢	$90	0xf36c77…
05-11 07:21:44	Will Enrique Peñalosa win the 1st round of the 2026 Colombian presidential election?	No	BUY	90	100¢	$90	0x3dd30f…
05-11 07:17:28	LoL: Team Orange Gaming vs Kaufland Hangry Knights (BO3) - Prime League 1st Division Group A	Team Orange Gaming	BUY	7	78¢	$5	0x67b776…
05-10 07:10:13	Will the price of XRP be above $1.50 on May 10?	No	BUY	96	100¢	$96	0x2248c0…
05-09 06:38:21	Will the price of XRP be between $1.20 and $1.30 on May 9?	No	BUY	84	100¢	$84	0x4d4dcb…
05-09 06:34:51	Will Vladimir Putin win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?	No	SELL	83	100¢	$83	0x710ea7…
05-09 06:16:06	Will Vladimir Putin win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?	No	BUY	83	100¢	$83	0x1f7386…
05-09 06:09:44	Istanbul: Alice Tubello vs Maria Timofeeva	Maria Timofeeva	BUY	12	61¢	$8	0xdc46c5…
05-08 05:57:48	Will Microsoft Corporation (MSFT) hit (LOW) $382.50 Week of May 4 2026?	No	BUY	82	100¢	$82	0x14241e…
05-08 05:52:09	LoL: T1 vs DN SOOPers (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2	T1	BUY	10	90¢	$9	0x3d31ae…
05-07 05:09:22	Will the price of Solana be between $100 and $110 on May 7?	No	BUY	90	100¢	$90	0x2b1073…
05-07 05:03:52	Will Ukraine win Eurovision 2026?	No	SELL	91	99¢	$90	0x56febb…
05-07 03:57:43	Will Ukraine win Eurovision 2026?	No	BUY	91	99¢	$90	0xa6181e…
05-07 03:55:14	Will Mohamed Salah win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	No	SELL	90	100¢	$90	0x63f9ab…
05-07 03:37:00	Will Mohamed Salah win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	No	BUY	90	100¢	$90	0x81b7da…
05-06 05:17:04	Will the price of Solana be between $70 and $80 on May 6?	No	BUY	91	100¢	$90	0xb4ca17…
05-06 05:14:50	Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion?	No	SELL	90	100¢	$90	0x3fdc3c…
05-06 04:59:02	Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion?	No	BUY	90	100¢	$90	0x72a4f8…
05-06 04:57:38	Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion?	No	SELL	90	100¢	$90	0x6f6fce…
05-06 03:37:04	Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion?	No	BUY	90	100¢	$90	0xbe7af0…
05-04 07:57:48	Will the price of Bitcoin be between $84,000 and $86,000 on May 4?	No	BUY	90	100¢	$90	0x7d4bef…
05-03 06:14:18	Will Bitcoin dip to $72,000 April 27-May 3?	No	BUY	90	100¢	$90	0x3259d7…
05-01 04:08:28	Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $5,050 Week of April 27 2026?	No	BUY	90	100¢	$90	0x8925d5…
04-30 06:01:28	Will Microsoft dip to $263 in April?	No	BUY	90	100¢	$90	0x067e6f…
04-29 05:44:02	Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from April 27 to April 29, 2026?	No	BUY	90	100¢	$90	0xca3910…
04-28 08:56:16	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on April 28?	No	BUY	90	100¢	$89	0xc4feb7…
04-26 08:24:12	Will Ethereum dip to $1,800 April 20-26?	No	BUY	79	100¢	$79	0xd41734…
04-26 08:19:32	Will Azerbaijan win Eurovision 2026?	No	SELL	80	100¢	$79	0x35aa4b…
04-26 07:46:54	Will Azerbaijan win Eurovision 2026?	No	BUY	80	100¢	$79	0xa1a44e…
04-26 07:44:36	Celtics vs. 76ers	Celtics	BUY	10	73¢	$7	0x017c6d…
04-25 12:59:50	Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,500 on April 25?	Yes	BUY	765	0¢	$2	0x404c19…
04-25 12:56:38	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on April 25?	No	BUY	177	1¢	$1	0xfb2e0a…
04-25 12:55:58	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on April 25?	No	BUY	571	1¢	$4	0xedff45…
04-25 12:08:36	Penguins vs. Flyers	Penguins	BUY	16	49¢	$8	0x58eba2…
04-24 11:45:18	will the price of ethereum be between 2000 2100 on april 24	Yes	BUY	725	0¢	$1	0xb40cf4…
04-24 11:43:22	elon musk of tweets april 17 april 24 240 259	Yes	BUY	633	0¢	$2	0x991a3e…
04-24 11:42:00	Will Germany win the televote for Eurovision 2026?	No	SELL	90	99¢	$89	0xe3cf66…
04-24 11:24:36	Will Germany win the televote for Eurovision 2026?	No	BUY	90	100¢	$89	0x633b6e…
04-24 11:24:00	Will Malta win the televote for Eurovision 2026?	No	SELL	90	99¢	$89	0xa779c6…
04-24 10:29:30	Will Malta win the televote for Eurovision 2026?	No	BUY	90	100¢	$89	0x49df8d…
04-24 10:25:50	Madrid Open: Sebastian Ofner vs Tomas Etcheverry	Sebastian Ofner	BUY	13	39¢	$5	0xb0d6d0…
04-23 11:16:48	will the price of bitcoin be between 82000 84000 on april 23	Yes	BUY	820	0¢	$2	0xf14bf6…
04-23 11:15:16	bitcoin above 82k on april 23	Yes	BUY	797	0¢	$2	0xf52fbb…