Great-Affidavit — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$40

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

57.8%

Resolved

107

Trades

239

lifetime

Volume

$2.84K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$12

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-05-06

last 05-16 19:00

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 8 days

Categories

Crypto

84% 58% $-64

Politics

16% 50% +$24

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

9 active days in 12wk • peak 84 trades/day

Open positions Resolved markets (28) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 8, 2026?	6	$424	880	880	+0	No	$-16	05-08 20:21
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET	3	$253	144	144	+0	Up	+$33	05-11 09:15
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET	2	$232	145	145	+0	Down	+$32	05-11 12:07
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET	5	$219	137	116	+21	Down	$-5	05-11 12:03
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET	3	$213	109	109	+0	Down	+$3	05-11 10:40
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET	2	$208	125	125	+0	Up	+$8	05-11 10:18
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET	3	$205	113	101	+12	Up	$-5	05-12 03:35
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET	4	$108	166	66	+100	open	—	05-16 19:00
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET	2	$101	52	52	+0	Down	+$1	05-12 10:05
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET	1	$100	133	0	+133	Down	$-100	05-06 18:46
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by May 31, 2026?	2	$44	42	42	+0	Yes	+$40	05-09 16:36
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET	4	$33	28	28	+0	Up	+$3	05-11 14:58
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET	3	$31	30	11	+19	Down	$-9	05-06 18:40
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET	3	$29	19	19	+0	Up	+$9	05-10 10:55
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET	3	$29	35	18	+17	Up	+$7	05-12 02:55
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET	2	$27	18	18	+0	Up	+$7	05-11 10:05
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET	3	$27	17	17	+0	Up	+$7	05-12 05:05
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET	2	$27	16	16	+0	Down	+$5	05-06 21:50
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET	2	$27	17	17	+0	Down	+$7	05-11 10:25
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET	4	$26	16	16	+0	Down	+$4	05-12 03:30
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET	3	$24	16	12	+4	Down	$-0	05-06 22:05
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET	3	$23	12	12	+0	Down	+$1	05-08 05:00
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET	2	$23	13	13	+0	Down	+$3	05-11 09:35
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET	2	$23	12	12	+0	Up	+$1	05-06 18:20
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET	3	$23	12	12	+0	Up	+$1	05-09 02:55
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET	2	$22	13	13	+0	Down	+$2	05-11 12:14
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET	2	$20	10	10	+0	Down	+$0	05-11 09:40
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET	3	$13	11	7	+3	Down	+$1	05-12 03:00
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET	4	$13	11	11	+0	Up	+$1	05-11 09:10
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET	3	$11	8	5	+3	open	—	05-16 18:44

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
05-16 19:00:02	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET	Down	BUY	100	1¢	$1	0x35d083…
05-16 18:56:56	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET	Up	SELL	66	85¢	$56	0xbad46f…
05-16 18:56:02	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET	Up	BUY	64	78¢	$50	0x570ae8…
05-16 18:55:39	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET	Up	BUY	1	71¢	$1	0x3bfb27…
05-16 18:52:09	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET	Up	BUY	8	64¢	$5	0x0534d0…
05-16 18:50:42	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET	Up	BUY	1	76¢	$1	0xc3fa86…
05-16 18:49:49	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET	Up	BUY	4	27¢	$1	0xe8a015…
05-16 18:48:52	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET	Up	SELL	2	84¢	$2	0x4a3f25…
05-16 18:48:10	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET	Up	BUY	2	40¢	$1	0x7aabd7…
05-16 18:44:05	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET	Up	SELL	5	99¢	$5	0x3687bf…
05-16 18:43:42	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET	Up	BUY	5	98¢	$5	0x2d794a…
05-16 18:42:02	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET	Down	BUY	3	34¢	$1	0x886182…
05-13 12:42:22	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on May 13?	Yes	BUY	45	2¢	$1	0xaa5ffd…
05-13 12:41:48	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 13?	No	BUY	48	2¢	$1	0x0c091f…
05-12 15:00:36	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET	Up	BUY	12	41¢	$5	0x75e02b…
05-12 14:56:11	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET	Up	BUY	17	30¢	$5	0x515b18…
05-12 14:56:06	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET	Up	BUY	12	40¢	$5	0xd38832…
05-12 10:05:52	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET	Down	BUY	3	34¢	$1	0xd93769…
05-12 10:05:20	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET	Down	SELL	52	99¢	$51	0xb29079…
05-12 10:03:46	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET	Down	BUY	52	97¢	$50	0x4dd88e…
05-12 09:56:09	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET	Down	BUY	2	50¢	$1	0xee1771…
05-12 09:55:22	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET	Down	BUY	2	61¢	$1	0x8cbd30…
05-12 05:44:20	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET	Up	BUY	9	57¢	$5	0xa17303…
05-12 05:43:57	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET	Up	BUY	2	63¢	$1	0x40bbab…
05-12 05:05:32	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET	Up	SELL	17	99¢	$17	0x190572…
05-12 05:04:36	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET	Up	BUY	9	58¢	$5	0x2a55bd…
05-12 05:04:34	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET	Up	BUY	9	58¢	$5	0x51f643…
05-12 03:35:12	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET	Up	SELL	101	99¢	$100	0xf9ab3f…
05-12 03:34:50	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET	Up	BUY	101	99¢	$100	0xf8811e…
05-12 03:31:00	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET	Down	BUY	12	42¢	$5	0x9301fa…
05-12 03:30:13	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET	Down	SELL	14	99¢	$14	0x0c90dc…
05-12 03:28:47	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET	Down	BUY	14	73¢	$10	0x73deea…
05-12 03:27:57	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET	Down	SELL	2	86¢	$2	0x513269…
05-12 03:25:37	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET	Down	BUY	2	54¢	$1	0x78d690…
05-12 03:23:46	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET	Down	SELL	2	97¢	$2	0x09534f…
05-12 03:23:31	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET	Down	BUY	2	95¢	$2	0x7ef6a9…
05-12 03:05:15	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET	Down	SELL	2	99¢	$2	0x18cdef…
05-12 03:01:57	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET	Up	BUY	8	66¢	$5	0x3f2633…
05-12 03:00:39	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET	Down	BUY	2	47¢	$1	0x9041eb…
05-12 03:00:12	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET	Down	SELL	7	99¢	$7	0xad3c44…
05-12 02:58:26	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET	Up	BUY	3	31¢	$1	0xd51b4d…
05-12 02:55:48	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET	Down	BUY	7	68¢	$5	0xe1d06a…
05-12 02:55:29	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET	Up	SELL	18	99¢	$18	0xb1cdaa…
05-12 02:53:07	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET	Down	BUY	17	6¢	$1	0xc174ad…
05-12 02:51:54	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET	Up	BUY	18	56¢	$10	0xc6cc4c…
05-12 02:50:12	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET	Up	SELL	1	99¢	$1	0x2f8950…
05-12 02:45:37	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET	Up	BUY	1	86¢	$1	0xdc51fd…
05-12 02:41:08	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET	Up	BUY	2	57¢	$1	0x1f0cd1…
05-12 02:40:12	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET	Down	SELL	1	99¢	$1	0xd488cf…
05-12 02:37:50	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET	Up	BUY	3	33¢	$1	0xbe82f7…
05-12 02:36:30	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET	Down	BUY	1	68¢	$1	0x4f2d51…
05-12 02:36:14	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET	Down	SELL	2	99¢	$2	0x315c66…
05-12 02:33:26	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET	Up	BUY	8	12¢	$1	0xf32621…
05-12 02:30:13	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET	Down	BUY	2	40¢	$1	0x338a55…
05-12 02:17:55	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET	Up	BUY	12	8¢	$1	0x485ecb…
05-11 21:12:59	Will Solana dip to $70 in May?	Yes	BUY	57	3¢	$2	0xf5e2b1…
05-11 15:11:24	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET	Down	BUY	10	49¢	$5	0xdea6f5…
05-11 15:08:52	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET	Up	SELL	2	80¢	$2	0xe6eeb4…
05-11 15:08:32	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET	Up	BUY	2	42¢	$1	0x0065e4…
05-11 15:05:23	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET	Down	BUY	2	63¢	$1	0xd2c4bc…
05-11 14:58:30	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET	Up	SELL	8	91¢	$7	0xb8e0ff…
05-11 14:57:48	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET	Up	BUY	8	62¢	$5	0x86a37b…
05-11 14:57:26	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET	Up	SELL	20	54¢	$11	0x85ed76…
05-11 14:56:47	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET	Up	BUY	20	50¢	$10	0xd1bdef…
05-11 13:50:59	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET	Down	BUY	2	60¢	$1	0xd878c5…
05-11 13:50:54	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET	Up	BUY	2	44¢	$1	0xb20eec…
05-11 12:14:37	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET	Down	SELL	13	95¢	$12	0x0d57a2…
05-11 12:10:55	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET	Down	BUY	13	77¢	$10	0x4570d2…
05-11 12:07:21	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET	Down	SELL	145	91¢	$132	0x09e627…
05-11 12:07:04	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET	Down	BUY	145	69¢	$100	0x7f4352…
05-11 12:03:48	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET	Down	SELL	116	92¢	$107	0x6da216…
05-11 12:03:30	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET	Down	BUY	114	88¢	$100	0xcc2088…
05-11 12:02:52	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET	Up	BUY	11	52¢	$6	0xa47ccb…
05-11 12:02:52	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET	Up	BUY	10	52¢	$5	0x3d8b03…
05-11 12:02:10	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET	Down	BUY	2	51¢	$1	0xd664ff…
05-11 12:00:13	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET	Up	SELL	3	99¢	$3	0x433e95…
05-11 11:58:45	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET	Up	BUY	3	38¢	$1	0x57136b…
05-11 11:53:13	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET	Down	BUY	9	57¢	$5	0xb3f76b…
05-11 10:49:48	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET	Up	BUY	2	49¢	$1	0x605285…
05-11 10:49:36	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET	Up	BUY	4	25¢	$1	0xd244fb…
05-11 10:40:25	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET	Down	SELL	109	99¢	$108	0x64c88c…
05-11 10:39:57	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET	Down	BUY	102	98¢	$100	0xfc82dc…
05-11 10:37:42	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET	Down	BUY	7	73¢	$5	0xe2a20f…
05-11 10:35:10	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET	Down	SELL	3	99¢	$3	0xb3f453…
05-11 10:31:15	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET	Down	BUY	3	73¢	$2	0xc3f593…
05-11 10:25:13	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET	Down	SELL	17	99¢	$17	0x4f5f75…
05-11 10:24:17	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET	Down	BUY	17	59¢	$10	0x16d918…
05-11 10:18:43	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET	Up	SELL	125	86¢	$108	0xb45f82…
05-11 10:18:13	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET	Up	BUY	125	80¢	$100	0xc0e1d4…
05-11 10:15:09	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET	Down	SELL	3	99¢	$3	0xb5c1c8…
05-11 10:11:37	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET	Up	BUY	2	58¢	$1	0x406e8c…
05-11 10:10:50	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET	Down	BUY	3	61¢	$2	0xb9e534…
05-11 10:05:25	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET	Up	SELL	18	99¢	$17	0x661a49…
05-11 10:03:41	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET	Up	BUY	18	57¢	$10	0xb6c203…
05-11 09:40:58	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET	Down	SELL	10	99¢	$10	0xa19deb…
05-11 09:39:52	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET	Down	BUY	10	99¢	$10	0x624554…
05-11 09:35:13	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET	Down	SELL	13	99¢	$13	0xd41704…
05-11 09:33:34	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET	Down	BUY	13	77¢	$10	0x9ad732…
05-11 09:30:02	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET	Up	BUY	54	19¢	$10	0x8b0d0a…
05-11 09:25:15	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET	Up	SELL	1	99¢	$1	0x6d0345…