Courteous-Stepmother — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$489

Unrealized P&L

+$3

Hit rate

49.0%

Resolved

2,800

Trades

4,553

lifetime

Volume

$7.85K

lifetime

Avg / trade

Open exposure

3 positions

First seen

2026-02-01

last 10-19 22:53

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 55 days

Categories

Crypto

83% 45% -$414

Other

9% 37% -$76

Politics

8% 60% +$5

Tech

1% 67% -$4

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

5 active days in 12wk • peak 298 trades/day

Open positions (3) Resolved markets (30) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
US military draft authorized in 2026?	Yes	-73	-$5	2¢	$-1	+$4	05-06 14:38
Ukraine coup attempt by December 31?	Yes	+14	$1	3¢	$0	-$1	09-25 20:42
Will Ukraine agree to cede territory to Russia before 2027?	Yes	+1	$0	4¢	$0	$0	09-25 20:40

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
will russia capture lyman by march 31 2026 494	6	$120	93	93	+0	No	+$6	02-25 17:33
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-02-26 16:15 UTC	25	$92	110	45	+66	Up	-$7	02-26 16:25
Opinion FDV above $1B one day after launch?	5	$82	66	66	+0	No	+$2	02-04 23:09
will israel strike lebanon on february 5 2026	4	$68	59	59	+0	Yes	-$11	02-05 15:09
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-02-19 01:00 UTC	47	$62	642	123	+519	Up	-$21	02-19 01:12
elon musk of tweets january 27 february 3 340 359	4	$59	67	67	+0	Yes	+$3	02-03 00:10
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-02-18 23:45 UTC	33	$58	130	25	+105	Down	-$14	02-18 23:58
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-02-26 14:30 UTC	17	$49	80	0	+80	Down	-$9	02-26 14:37
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-02-18 20:15 UTC	24	$49	64	34	+30	Up	+$19	02-18 20:28
will anyone be charged over daycare fraud in minnesota by december 31	2	$49	50	50	+0	Yes	+$9	02-18 23:19
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-02-18 21:45 UTC	24	$47	55	40	+15	Down	+$4	02-18 21:52
will nvidia be the largest company in the world by market cap on february 28 846	3	$46	72	72	+0	Yes	+$6	02-04 15:09
bitcoin above 78k on february 3	2	$46	26	26	+0	No	+$6	02-03 17:14
will rachida dati win the paris mayor election	2	$44	62	62	+0	No	+$4	02-24 06:38
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-02-26 15:00 UTC	17	$44	77	0	+77	Down	+$6	02-26 15:06
Zama FDV above $500M one day after launch?	2	$44	25	25	+0	No	+$5	02-03 07:20
Will US or Israel strike Iran by February 28, 2026?	2	$43	26	26	+0	Yes	+$3	02-13 15:52
Will Natthaphong Ruengpanyawut be the next prime minister of Thailand?	3	$43	72	72	+0	No	+$3	02-07 08:09
israel x iran ceasefire broken by june 30 2026 438 193	3	$42	46	46	+0	Yes	+$2	02-03 07:27
elon musk of tweets january 30 february 6 300 319	2	$41	92	92	+0	No	+$1	02-03 19:12
Will John Cornyn win the 2026 Texas Republican Primary?	3	$41	58	58	+0	No	-$1	02-01 22:17
will russia capture kostyantynivka by february 28	3	$41	26	26	+0	No	+$1	02-03 13:12
Will US or Israel strike Iran by December 31, 2026?	2	$41	59	59	+0	Yes	+$1	02-02 22:11
israel x iran ceasefire broken by march 31 2026 312 682	2	$41	33	33	+0	Yes	+$1	02-03 05:10
megaeth market cap fdv 1b one day after launch gj9e 189 291 824 352	2	$41	57	57	+0	Yes	+$1	02-02 18:12
Over $5M committed to the Hurupay public sale?	2	$40	28	28	+0	No	+$1	02-03 20:14
Will US or Israel strike Iran by March 31, 2026?	2	$40	32	32	+0	Yes	+$0	02-03 07:24
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-02-26 17:00 UTC	7	$40	25	25	+0	Up	+$7	02-26 17:14
hezbollah strike on israel by march 31 737 523	3	$40	27	27	+0	Yes	+$1	02-05 14:09
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-02-26 14:45 UTC	6	$40	70	20	+50	Down	-$1	02-26 14:53

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
10-19 22:53:42	XRP Up or Down - October 19, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET	Up	BUY	2	65¢	$1	0x41a5c4…
10-19 22:38:50	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 19, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET	Up	BUY	1	81¢	$1	0xf5121d…
10-19 22:29:05	Ethereum Up or Down - October 19, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET	Down	BUY	1	68¢	$1	0x33c9b9…
10-19 22:28:53	XRP Up or Down - October 19, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET	Up	BUY	1	83¢	$1	0x871b4e…
10-19 22:28:53	XRP Up or Down - October 19, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET	Up	BUY	1	83¢	$1	0x36ca6d…
10-19 22:14:15	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 19, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET	Up	BUY	2	59¢	$1	0x8c492b…
10-19 22:14:14	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 19, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET	Up	BUY	2	58¢	$1	0xf5ab33…
10-19 22:14:12	XRP Up or Down - October 19, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET	Up	BUY	3	36¢	$1	0xee566e…
10-19 22:14:12	XRP Up or Down - October 19, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET	Up	BUY	3	36¢	$1	0x6a6e66…
10-19 20:49:05	Dogecoin Up or Down - October 19, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET	Down	BUY	1	79¢	$1	0x57e17c…
10-19 19:43:51	XRP Up or Down - October 19, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET	Down	BUY	2	61¢	$1	0xacf9a5…
10-19 19:43:50	XRP Up or Down - October 19, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET	Down	BUY	2	61¢	$1	0x3422b1…
10-19 18:58:35	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 19, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET	Down	BUY	1	82¢	$1	0xd1bf60…
10-19 18:58:35	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 19, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET	Down	BUY	1	82¢	$1	0x6d1318…
10-19 16:19:30	XRP Up or Down - October 19, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET	Down	BUY	10	10¢	$1	0x5e1357…
10-19 15:53:54	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 19, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET	Down	BUY	2	47¢	$1	0x70820e…
10-19 15:53:54	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 19, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET	Down	BUY	2	47¢	$1	0x1ebafa…
10-19 14:29:05	Ethereum Up or Down - October 19, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET	Up	BUY	2	53¢	$1	0xebf37b…
10-19 14:29:05	Ethereum Up or Down - October 19, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET	Up	BUY	2	53¢	$1	0x92bee9…
10-19 14:19:17	Dogecoin Up or Down - October 19, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET	Down	BUY	2	59¢	$1	0xff20a7…
10-19 14:19:17	Dogecoin Up or Down - October 19, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET	Down	BUY	2	59¢	$1	0xe14984…
10-19 14:13:54	Solana Up or Down - October 19, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET	Up	BUY	2	54¢	$1	0x39af2a…
10-19 14:13:54	Solana Up or Down - October 19, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET	Up	BUY	2	54¢	$1	0x072f77…
10-19 13:28:38	Ethereum Up or Down - October 19, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET	Down	BUY	1	96¢	$1	0xe8cac6…
10-19 13:23:47	Solana Up or Down - October 19, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET	Up	BUY	1	81¢	$1	0xe281cf…
10-19 12:59:26	Dogecoin Up or Down - October 19, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET	Up	BUY	1	95¢	$1	0x2fd1c0…
10-19 12:59:18	XRP Up or Down - October 19, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET	Up	BUY	1	80¢	$1	0xd60086…
10-19 12:59:18	Dogecoin Up or Down - October 19, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET	Up	BUY	2	52¢	$1	0xaf24e3…
10-19 12:53:53	Solana Up or Down - October 19, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET	Up	BUY	1	67¢	$1	0xeff555…
10-19 12:49:18	Ethereum Up or Down - October 19, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET	Down	BUY	1	89¢	$1	0x59dfef…
10-19 12:49:02	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 19, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET	Down	BUY	1	95¢	$1	0xb0e663…
10-19 12:48:38	XRP Up or Down - October 19, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET	Down	BUY	1	93¢	$1	0x44d9b9…
10-19 12:44:17	Ethereum Up or Down - October 19, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET	Up	BUY	1	90¢	$1	0xf8a720…
10-19 12:44:17	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 19, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET	Down	BUY	1	88¢	$1	0x2a903a…
10-19 12:43:38	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 19, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET	Down	BUY	1	84¢	$1	0xf1fee8…
10-19 12:43:38	XRP Up or Down - October 19, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET	Down	BUY	1	85¢	$1	0xd06735…
10-19 12:43:38	ZCash Up or Down - October 19, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET	Down	BUY	1	93¢	$1	0x9fc4c8…
10-19 12:43:38	Ethereum Up or Down - October 19, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET	Down	BUY	2	66¢	$1	0x647403…
10-19 12:43:38	Solana Up or Down - October 19, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET	Down	BUY	1	94¢	$1	0x4f672f…
10-19 12:39:18	XRP Up or Down - October 19, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET	Up	BUY	1	81¢	$1	0xac950d…
10-19 12:38:50	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 19, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET	Up	BUY	1	95¢	$1	0xa1288d…
10-19 12:38:45	Solana Up or Down - October 19, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET	Up	BUY	1	69¢	$1	0x5f2a09…
10-19 12:38:41	XRP Up or Down - October 19, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET	Up	BUY	1	73¢	$1	0xcde205…
10-19 12:33:53	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 19, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET	Up	BUY	1	81¢	$1	0xe5519d…
10-19 12:29:18	XRP Up or Down - October 19, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET	Down	BUY	1	87¢	$1	0x7a7429…
10-19 12:29:17	Solana Up or Down - October 19, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET	Down	BUY	1	78¢	$1	0x893774…
10-19 12:29:17	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 19, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET	Up	BUY	1	94¢	$1	0x5d8855…
10-19 12:29:17	Ethereum Up or Down - October 19, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET	Up	BUY	1	97¢	$1	0x5651f3…
10-19 12:29:02	XRP Up or Down - October 19, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET	Down	BUY	1	87¢	$1	0x4c6188…
10-19 12:28:41	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 19, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET	Up	BUY	1	85¢	$1	0x7cef1f…
10-19 12:28:39	Ethereum Up or Down - October 19, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET	Up	BUY	1	84¢	$1	0x8d69e3…
10-19 12:28:33	Solana Up or Down - October 19, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET	Down	BUY	2	62¢	$1	0x515090…
10-19 12:23:42	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 19, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET	Down	BUY	1	86¢	$1	0x460e27…
10-19 12:23:35	Dogecoin Up or Down - October 19, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET	Down	BUY	1	89¢	$1	0x2b6c6d…
10-19 12:13:53	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 19, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET	Up	BUY	1	96¢	$1	0x634f18…
10-19 12:04:17	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 19, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET	Down	BUY	1	75¢	$1	0xb8410b…
10-19 11:49:18	Dogecoin Up or Down - October 19, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET	Down	BUY	1	89¢	$1	0xecd23c…
10-19 11:49:18	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 19, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET	Down	BUY	1	73¢	$1	0xe9a1f6…
10-19 11:49:17	XRP Up or Down - October 19, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET	Up	BUY	1	90¢	$1	0x7c4da9…
10-19 11:49:08	Dogecoin Up or Down - October 19, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET	Down	BUY	1	80¢	$1	0x61ef46…
10-19 11:49:05	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 19, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET	Down	BUY	1	81¢	$1	0xe67d91…
10-19 11:44:23	XRP Up or Down - October 19, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET	Up	BUY	2	53¢	$1	0x09b79b…
10-19 11:44:18	Solana Up or Down - October 19, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET	Up	BUY	1	97¢	$1	0x000286…
10-19 11:43:54	Solana Up or Down - October 19, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET	Up	BUY	1	70¢	$1	0x7171ca…
10-19 11:43:53	Dogecoin Up or Down - October 19, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET	Up	BUY	1	76¢	$1	0xb98231…
10-19 11:43:35	Ethereum Up or Down - October 19, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET	Up	BUY	1	90¢	$1	0x876423…
10-19 11:33:54	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 19, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET	Down	BUY	1	96¢	$1	0x209fcb…
10-19 11:29:24	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 19, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET	Down	BUY	1	95¢	$1	0x09acd5…
10-19 11:29:17	Ethereum Up or Down - October 19, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET	Up	BUY	1	89¢	$1	0x40f18d…
10-19 11:28:44	Dogecoin Up or Down - October 19, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET	Down	BUY	1	92¢	$1	0x196f2a…
10-19 11:28:39	Solana Up or Down - October 19, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET	Up	BUY	1	83¢	$1	0xcfac4f…
10-19 11:24:18	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 19, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET	Down	BUY	3	34¢	$1	0x3eee7c…
10-19 11:24:18	XRP Up or Down - October 19, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET	Up	BUY	1	89¢	$1	0x280921…
10-19 11:08:39	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 19, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET	Down	BUY	1	95¢	$1	0x8c6339…
10-19 11:08:39	XRP Up or Down - October 19, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET	Down	BUY	1	88¢	$1	0x3c0b68…
10-19 10:59:18	Dogecoin Up or Down - October 19, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET	Down	BUY	1	96¢	$1	0x5c6c65…
10-19 10:59:17	Solana Up or Down - October 19, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET	Down	BUY	1	89¢	$1	0xd7bc55…
10-19 10:59:17	ZCash Up or Down - October 19, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET	Up	BUY	1	74¢	$1	0x61a760…
10-19 10:59:05	Solana Up or Down - October 19, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET	Down	BUY	1	89¢	$1	0x93c4e2…
10-19 10:59:05	ZCash Up or Down - October 19, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET	Up	BUY	1	74¢	$1	0x168f9e…
10-19 10:58:45	Dogecoin Up or Down - October 19, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET	Down	BUY	1	88¢	$1	0x3b0e80…
10-19 10:49:17	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 19, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET	Down	BUY	1	77¢	$1	0x961e64…
10-19 10:44:18	Dogecoin Up or Down - October 19, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET	Up	BUY	1	97¢	$1	0x4ca43e…
10-19 10:43:59	Dogecoin Up or Down - October 19, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET	Down	BUY	3	32¢	$1	0x4adb60…
10-19 10:08:56	Solana Up or Down - October 19, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET	Down	BUY	1	94¢	$1	0xb133ea…
10-19 10:04:18	XRP Up or Down - October 19, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET	Up	BUY	1	69¢	$1	0xbf6d94…
10-19 10:04:18	Dogecoin Up or Down - October 19, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET	Up	BUY	1	71¢	$1	0x629301…
10-19 10:04:17	Solana Up or Down - October 19, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET	Up	BUY	1	89¢	$1	0x4df0b4…
10-19 10:03:51	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 19, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET	Up	BUY	1	93¢	$1	0xa7d657…
10-19 10:03:47	Dogecoin Up or Down - October 19, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET	Up	BUY	2	54¢	$1	0xbffe59…
10-19 10:03:45	XRP Up or Down - October 19, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET	Up	BUY	2	53¢	$1	0xd8b9e9…
10-19 09:49:30	Dogecoin Up or Down - October 19, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET	Up	BUY	1	95¢	$1	0x1388e1…
10-19 09:49:17	XRP Up or Down - October 19, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET	Down	BUY	2	43¢	$1	0x519b49…
10-19 09:49:12	XRP Up or Down - October 19, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET	Down	BUY	2	52¢	$1	0xc2c309…
10-19 09:48:57	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 19, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET	Up	BUY	1	84¢	$1	0xc0850e…
10-19 09:48:45	Ethereum Up or Down - October 19, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET	Down	BUY	1	83¢	$1	0x2c06dc…
10-19 09:33:35	Solana Up or Down - October 19, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET	Up	BUY	2	59¢	$1	0x168305…
10-19 09:28:39	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 19, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET	Up	BUY	1	86¢	$1	0x904f00…
10-19 09:18:47	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 19, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET	Up	BUY	1	93¢	$1	0x4481e5…
10-19 09:13:57	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 19, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET	Up	BUY	1	93¢	$1	0x86f277…