Advanced-Pelican — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$40

Unrealized P&L

+$16

Hit rate

65.0%

Resolved

330

Trades

1,817

lifetime

Volume

$36.2K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$20

Open exposure

$287

1 position

First seen

2026-01-04

last 10-25 23:36

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 79 days

Categories

Other

53% 62% +$122

Politics

27% 60% +$101

Sports

9% 69% +$21

Crypto

8% 44% -$4

Tech

3% 64% -$200

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

4 active days in 12wk • peak 6 trades/day

Open positions (1) Resolved markets (29) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
US recession by end of 2026?	No		+303	$271	94¢	$287	+$16	09-26 09:50

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after january 2026 meeting	11	$1.6K	1,200	400	+800	No	+$20	01-24 00:34
will the iranian regime fall by march 31	28	$1.3K	683	683	+0	No	-$1	03-25 19:25
no change in fed interest rates after january 2026 meeting	13	$1.2K	600	600	+0	Yes	+$6	01-24 00:25
Will Inter win the 2025–26 Champions League?	16	$1.1K	600	524	+76	No	+$2	02-04 14:56
will the us collect less than 100b in revenue in 2025	19	$791	447	447	-0	Yes	+$8	02-15 19:29
Will Judy Shelton be confirmed as Fed Chair?	71	$786	404	404	+0	No	+$0	03-25 19:30
microstrategy sells any bitcoin by march 31 2026	6	$768	400	400	-0	No	-$6	02-04 14:55
Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2026 NBA Finals?	9	$758	400	400	+0	No	-$4	02-04 14:55
netanyahu out by march 31 854	17	$752	390	390	+0	No	+$14	03-19 19:21
russia x ukraine ceasefire by march 31 2026	11	$704	400	400	+0	No	+$4	02-01 13:19
MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$6B one day after launch?	10	$679	0	700	-700	No	-$21	01-04 18:49
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026?	9	$597	484	576	-91	Yes	+$32	02-04 14:55
will france uk or germany strike iran by march 31 929	14	$496	258	258	+0	No	+$10	03-27 11:36
will seguro win all of portugals districts	18	$478	284	284	+0	Yes	+$22	02-08 20:34
ilhan omar town hall attack staged	21	$466	237	237	+0	No	$0	02-11 15:02
Will Hyperliquid reach $54 by December 31, 2026?	4	$450	400	400	+0	Yes	-$14	02-04 14:55
Will Opinion launch a token by February 17, 2026?	20	$424	255	255	+0	No	+$51	02-16 17:47
will the los angeles chargers win super bowl 2026	3	$399	207	200	+7	No	+$2	01-12 03:35
will bitcoin dip to 55k in march 2026	10	$393	214	214	+0	No	-$5	03-27 11:36
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by March 31?	3	$386	200	200	+0	No	+$2	03-27 11:36
crude oil all time high by march 31	16	$366	190	185	+6	No	+$3	03-27 18:40
will claude 5 be released by march 31 2026 243 489 141 184	17	$352	247	247	+0	No	-$50	03-26 03:49
US recession by end of 2026?	7	$345	345	42	+303	open	—	09-26 09:50
bad bunny video becomes most viewed sb halftime on youtube in 1st month	11	$344	180	180	+0	No	+$10	02-13 16:42
will the freedom movement gs win the most seats in the 2026 slovenian parliamentary election 529	29	$330	224	201	+23	Yes	+$62	03-30 14:48
will bitcoin dip to 35k in february 2026 579 178 738	8	$325	166	166	-0	No	+$2	02-11 16:25
italy nordio reform referendum passes	47	$323	301	299	+2	No	-$14	03-23 16:31
will israel launch a major ground offensive in lebanon by march 31	12	$301	319	15	+304	Yes	-$4	03-23 15:54
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30?	8	$269	149	149	+0	No	+$6	04-17 07:34
us forces enter iran by march 31 222 191 243 517 878 439 519	27	$268	170	170	+0	No	+$8	03-31 21:43

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
10-25 23:36:15	Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	No	BUY	15	94¢	$15	0x21eca7…
10-25 23:36:15	Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	No	BUY	212	94¢	$199	0x07a6b3…
09-26 09:50:09	US recession by end of 2026?	No	SELL	42	90¢	$37	0x8c2de7…
09-25 15:02:29	US recession by end of 2026?	No	BUY	6	89¢	$5	0xc394fd…
09-25 15:02:29	US recession by end of 2026?	No	BUY	44	89¢	$39	0x66e1b8…
09-25 14:46:48	US recession by end of 2026?	No	BUY	94	90¢	$85	0x083223…
09-25 14:46:09	US recession by end of 2026?	No	BUY	94	89¢	$84	0x91a0c6…
09-25 14:46:09	US recession by end of 2026?	No	BUY	100	89¢	$89	0x473991…
09-25 14:46:09	US recession by end of 2026?	No	BUY	6	89¢	$5	0x027372…
09-15 19:37:12	Will the chopsticks catch SpaceX Starship Flight Test 14 Starship?	No	BUY	150	97¢	$146	0x022dac…
06-15 16:08:18	us announces new iran agreementceasefire extension by june 13	No	BUY	37	99¢	$36	0x8f7a2e…
06-15 15:34:58	us announces new iran agreementceasefire extension by june 13	No	BUY	14	99¢	$14	0xf0f3dd…
06-15 15:34:58	us announces new iran agreementceasefire extension by june 13	No	BUY	7	99¢	$6	0x8e4b91…
06-15 15:34:58	us announces new iran agreementceasefire extension by june 13	No	BUY	11	99¢	$11	0x8e47c4…
06-15 15:34:58	us announces new iran agreementceasefire extension by june 13	No	BUY	12	99¢	$12	0x4fcf31…
06-15 15:34:57	us announces new iran agreementceasefire extension by june 13	No	BUY	12	99¢	$12	0xb2012b…
06-15 15:34:55	us announces new iran agreementceasefire extension by june 13	No	BUY	1	99¢	$1	0xe0f724…
06-15 15:34:55	us announces new iran agreementceasefire extension by june 13	No	BUY	1	99¢	$1	0x00ac65…
05-29 07:45:19	Netanyahu out by June 30?	No	BUY	100	96¢	$96	0x52a5c2…
05-29 07:43:55	Netanyahu out by June 30?	No	BUY	100	96¢	$96	0x077bdf…
05-27 17:37:15	Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election?	Yes	BUY	50	30¢	$15	0x52f51c…
05-19 03:36:42	Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election?	Yes	BUY	50	43¢	$22	0xb9f45d…
05-12 20:16:49	Will the ECB announce a 25 bps increase at the June 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	23	82¢	$19	0xc3b497…
04-17 07:34:54	Will Trump visit China by May 31?	Yes	SELL	8	86¢	$7	0x7dabe1…
04-17 07:34:52	Will Russia capture Viroliubivka by April 30?	No	SELL	14	96¢	$13	0xb9bc9e…
04-17 07:34:52	Will the ECB announce no change at the April 2026 meeting?	Yes	SELL	10	97¢	$9	0x011be7…
04-17 07:34:50	Will Ken Paxton win the 2026 Texas Republican Primary?	No	SELL	14	41¢	$6	0xfd24ca…
04-17 07:34:46	Iran leadership change by April 30?	No	SELL	15	93¢	$14	0x347e30…
04-17 07:34:44	Will Israel launch a ground operation in Iran by April 30, 2026?	No	SELL	17	94¢	$16	0xd9381a…
04-17 07:34:38	iran x israelus conflict ends by april 15 618 586 982	Yes	SELL	25	87¢	$22	0xd7ec83…
04-17 07:34:38	Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by April 30?	No	SELL	25	97¢	$24	0x92538f…
04-17 07:34:34	Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30?	No	SELL	25	99¢	$25	0xd4782d…
04-17 07:34:28	Israeli forces cross the Litani River by June 30?	Yes	SELL	46	10¢	$5	0xb79bf1…
04-17 07:33:28	Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 30?	No	BUY	66	96¢	$64	0xba24a2…
03-31 21:43:19	will crude oil cl hit low 85 by end of march 893 949 456 773	No	SELL	93	100¢	$93	0xf70463…
03-31 21:43:19	us forces enter iran by march 31 222 191 243 517 878 439 519	No	SELL	37	99¢	$37	0xe814e7…
03-31 21:43:19	another us bank failure by march 31	No	SELL	15	99¢	$15	0xe4459b…
03-31 21:43:19	mojtaba khamenei seen in public by march 31	No	SELL	74	99¢	$74	0x965598…
03-31 21:43:17	iran leadership change by march 31	No	SELL	25	99¢	$25	0xeff921…
03-31 21:43:17	will crude oil cl hit high 120 by end of march 766 813 597	No	SELL	53	100¢	$53	0xbb91d2…
03-31 21:43:17	will elon musks net worth be at least 710b on march 31	No	SELL	16	99¢	$16	0x0ebf53…
03-31 21:43:15	will fidesz kdnp win the national list vote in the 2026 hungarian parliamentary election by 9	No	SELL	12	93¢	$11	0x3d9de0…
03-31 21:43:13	will crude oil cl hit high 140 by end of march 934 621	No	SELL	60	100¢	$60	0x9ec88f…
03-31 21:43:13	will uae strike iran by march 31	No	SELL	43	100¢	$42	0x7f68e6…
03-31 21:43:13	us evacuates baghdad embassy by march 31	No	SELL	47	99¢	$47	0x603d61…
03-31 21:43:11	Will John Cornyn win the 2026 Texas Republican Primary?	Yes	SELL	77	30¢	$23	0xaf04e7…
03-31 21:43:11	US forces enter Iran by December 31?	No	SELL	177	31¢	$55	0x8247d3…
03-31 21:43:11	will saudi arabia strike iran by march 31	No	SELL	31	100¢	$30	0x7f7881…
03-31 21:43:09	will the kharg island oil terminal be hit by march 31	No	SELL	32	99¢	$32	0x6185ab…
03-31 21:43:09	ukraine hits moscow by march 31 2026	No	SELL	34	97¢	$33	0x419f9b…
03-31 21:43:07	will annual inflation increase by 2pt8 in march	Yes	SELL	42	98¢	$41	0xed3508…
03-31 21:43:07	will uk strike iran by march 31	No	SELL	36	100¢	$36	0x082757…
03-31 21:43:03	us announces military support of iran oppostion by march 31	No	SELL	50	99¢	$49	0xa72549…
03-31 21:43:03	will any eu country strike iran by march 31	No	SELL	53	100¢	$53	0x928a48…
03-31 21:43:01	us x iran ceasefire by april 30	Yes	SELL	134	36¢	$48	0x476573…
03-31 21:43:01	US forces enter Iran by April 30?	No	SELL	69	41¢	$28	0x049ad5…
03-31 17:20:13	US forces enter Iran by April 30?	No	SELL	15	42¢	$6	0x6e3531…
03-31 17:19:55	US forces enter Iran by April 30?	No	SELL	0	42¢	$0	0x8e229f…
03-31 17:19:53	US forces enter Iran by April 30?	No	SELL	0	42¢	$0	0x4ee307…
03-31 17:19:53	US forces enter Iran by April 30?	No	SELL	0	42¢	$0	0x24afb1…
03-31 16:07:25	nhl nj nyr 2026 03 31	Devils	BUY	25	54¢	$14	0x60cbb4…
03-31 16:07:23	nhl wpg chi 2026 03 31	Jets	BUY	25	58¢	$14	0xec184f…
03-31 16:04:51	nhl ott fla 2026 03 31	Senators	BUY	25	63¢	$16	0xd0d342…
03-31 11:39:05	US forces enter Iran by April 30?	No	BUY	15	38¢	$6	0x8b4928…
03-30 14:48:17	will the freedom movement gs win the most seats in the 2026 slovenian parliamentary election 529	Yes	BUY	10	99¢	$10	0xb4a5f9…
03-30 13:31:37	us forces enter iran by march 31 222 191 243 517 878 439 519	No	SELL	3	94¢	$3	0xa4912b…
03-30 13:31:19	us forces enter iran by march 31 222 191 243 517 878 439 519	No	SELL	1	94¢	$1	0x343d76…
03-30 13:31:17	us forces enter iran by march 31 222 191 243 517 878 439 519	No	SELL	2	94¢	$2	0x9bcc8e…
03-30 13:31:17	us forces enter iran by march 31 222 191 243 517 878 439 519	No	SELL	1	94¢	$1	0x6d2f03…
03-30 13:08:56	will the freedom movement gs win the most seats in the 2026 slovenian parliamentary election 529	Yes	BUY	13	99¢	$13	0x5d9429…
03-29 20:08:16	us forces enter iran by march 31 222 191 243 517 878 439 519	No	BUY	15	87¢	$13	0x0d3fb7…
03-29 20:07:54	us forces enter iran by march 31 222 191 243 517 878 439 519	No	BUY	15	87¢	$13	0xd885e9…
03-29 20:07:40	us forces enter iran by march 31 222 191 243 517 878 439 519	No	BUY	15	88¢	$13	0x0545de…
03-29 19:54:18	us forces enter iran by march 31 222 191 243 517 878 439 519	No	SELL	13	82¢	$11	0xd12a9c…
03-29 19:54:18	us forces enter iran by march 31 222 191 243 517 878 439 519	No	SELL	3	82¢	$2	0x95eeec…
03-29 19:54:16	us forces enter iran by march 31 222 191 243 517 878 439 519	No	SELL	0	82¢	$0	0x7bc4d8…
03-29 19:53:48	us forces enter iran by march 31 222 191 243 517 878 439 519	No	SELL	12	78¢	$10	0xc8b35a…
03-29 19:53:48	us forces enter iran by march 31 222 191 243 517 878 439 519	No	SELL	1	78¢	$1	0x68fe77…
03-29 05:30:50	pam bondi out as attorney general by march 31	No	SELL	2	99¢	$2	0x3a4080…
03-29 04:46:10	pam bondi out as attorney general by march 31	No	SELL	1	99¢	$1	0x3c1286…
03-29 02:14:06	Israeli forces cross the Litani River by June 30?	Yes	BUY	46	84¢	$38	0x776af6…
03-29 00:02:04	pam bondi out as attorney general by march 31	No	SELL	1	99¢	$1	0xf4023d…
03-28 21:02:02	us x iran ceasefire by april 15	Yes	SELL	19	21¢	$4	0xcec864…
03-28 21:00:42	us x iran ceasefire by april 15	Yes	SELL	2	21¢	$0	0xe64efb…
03-28 20:59:00	us x iran ceasefire by april 15	Yes	SELL	7	21¢	$1	0x07b91d…
03-28 09:35:19	pam bondi out as attorney general by march 31	No	SELL	0	99¢	$0	0x7e00b5…
03-27 18:40:17	crude oil all time high by march 31	No	BUY	6	99¢	$5	0xb59138…
03-27 17:32:35	us announces military coordination with kurds in iran by march 31	No	BUY	10	99¢	$9	0x39eda0…
03-27 16:10:55	Will Russia capture Viroliubivka by April 30?	No	BUY	14	91¢	$13	0x0e4b69…
03-27 15:44:13	will crude oil cl hit low 85 by end of march 893 949 456 773	No	BUY	40	93¢	$37	0xf0bfb5…
03-27 15:23:13	will crude oil cl hit low 85 by end of march 893 949 456 773	No	BUY	20	93¢	$19	0x83a117…
03-27 15:15:13	Iran leadership change by May 31?	No	SELL	10	69¢	$7	0x4df685…
03-27 15:13:35	Iran leadership change by May 31?	No	BUY	10	69¢	$7	0xce9be7…
03-27 14:23:11	mojtaba khamenei seen in public by march 31	No	BUY	10	92¢	$9	0x7247bc…
03-27 14:23:11	mojtaba khamenei seen in public by march 31	No	BUY	14	92¢	$13	0x0b18f8…
03-27 14:20:13	us forces enter iran by march 31 222 191 243 517 878 439 519	No	BUY	10	82¢	$8	0x1740da…
03-27 14:10:37	will crude oil cl hit low 85 by end of march 893 949 456 773	No	BUY	15	92¢	$14	0x237804…
03-27 13:59:13	will uae strike iran by march 31	No	BUY	18	95¢	$17	0x003736…
03-27 13:30:11	will crude oil cl hit low 85 by end of march 893 949 456 773	No	SELL	2	92¢	$2	0x4a6d31…
03-27 13:20:11	will crude oil cl hit low 85 by end of march 893 949 456 773	No	SELL	1	91¢	$1	0xa9f6b9…