Guilty-Hacksaw — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$16

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

24.2%

Resolved

100

Trades

124

lifetime

Volume

$9.49K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$77

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-01-05

last 10-06 05:26

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 55 days

Categories

Sports

42% 40% +$2

Crypto

31% 91% -$20

Other

27% 86% +$1

Tech

1% 67% +$0

Politics

0% 100% +$1

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

4 active days in 12wk • peak 3 trades/day

Open positions Resolved markets (30) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
fed decreases interest rates by 50 bps after january 2026 meeting	3	$1.1K	536	536	+0	No	$0	01-26 05:50
Will Elche win the 2025–26 La Liga?	3	$1.0K	518	518	+0	No	-$1	01-16 02:22
will the carolina panthers win super bowl 2026	2	$998	503	503	+0	No	+$0	01-06 09:41
fed increases interest rates by 25 bps after january 2026 meeting	2	$984	497	490	+7	No	$0	01-06 09:43
Will Olympiakos win the 2025–26 Champions League?	2	$976	489	489	+0	No	$0	01-06 09:44
Will Club Brugge win the 2025–26 Champions League?	2	$975	488	488	+0	No	$0	01-07 08:51
will ethereum reach 6000 in january 2026	2	$966	488	480	+8	No	$0	01-07 08:52
will ethereum dip to 1000 in january 2026 651	2	$948	479	470	+9	No	$0	01-07 08:54
will solana dip to 10 in september 2026	1	$70	70	0	+70	No	+$0	09-08 02:59
Will XRP dip to $0.20 in October?	1	$70	70	0	+70	No	+$0	10-06 05:26
will the logan paul 1st edition charizard sale price be over 500k	2	$60	30	30	+0	Yes	$0	01-26 05:50
will ethereum reach 3000 in august 2026	2	$48	25	24	+1	No	-$1	08-20 01:43
will solana reach 200 in february 2026	2	$46	23	23	+0	No	+$0	02-22 04:02
will bitcoin reach 100k in august 2026	2	$45	24	21	+3	No	$0	08-19 06:48
will ethereum reach 5000 in february 2026	2	$44	22	22	+0	No	+$0	02-22 04:02
will bitcoin reach 150k in february 2026	2	$42	21	21	+0	No	+$0	02-22 04:02
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1T?	2	$33	17	16	+1	Yes	$0	06-12 02:34
Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30?	2	$27	14	13	+1	No	$0	06-12 02:35
will xrp dip to 0pt2 in august 2026	1	$26	26	0	+26	No	+$0	08-10 06:35
solana above 140 on january 26	1	$26	26	0	+26	No	+$0	01-26 05:54
will ethereum reach 2900 february 2 8	1	$24	24	0	+24	No	+$0	02-05 09:56
Backpack FDV above $700M one day after launch?	2	$22	62	0	+62	No	-$22	02-05 10:49
Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from April 28 to May 5, 2026?	1	$21	21	0	+21	No	+$0	04-30 12:09
will the iranian regime fall by march 31	2	$19	10	9	+1	No	+$1	03-29 03:05
will microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on march 31 889	2	$19	10	9	+1	No	$0	03-10 06:36
will zai have the best ai model at the end of march 2026 189	2	$19	10	9	+1	No	+$0	03-29 03:05
will gold gc hit high 10000 by end of march	2	$19	10	9	+1	No	+$0	03-29 03:05
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $86,000 on May 14?	1	$18	18	0	+18	No	+$0	05-13 08:43
Will Meta have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?	1	$16	16	0	+16	No	+$0	06-08 07:48
xrp above 1pt7 on january 27	1	$16	16	0	+16	Yes	+$0	01-27 04:44

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
10-06 05:26:03	Will XRP dip to $0.20 in October?	No	BUY	70	100¢	$70	0xc74468…
09-08 02:59:52	will solana dip to 10 in september 2026	No	BUY	70	100¢	$70	0xe8cb12…
08-20 01:43:45	will ethereum reach 3000 in august 2026	No	SELL	24	97¢	$23	0x2b4e52…
08-19 06:49:16	bitcoin above 56k on august 22 2026	Yes	BUY	11	100¢	$11	0xe681c1…
08-19 06:49:00	bitcoin above 60k on august 20 2026	Yes	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0xe9ae6c…
08-19 06:48:07	will bitcoin reach 100k in august 2026	No	SELL	21	100¢	$21	0x0203ae…
08-10 06:35:51	will xrp dip to 0pt2 in august 2026	No	BUY	26	100¢	$26	0x873ed5…
08-10 06:35:27	will ethereum reach 3000 in august 2026	No	BUY	25	100¢	$25	0x5cf702…
08-10 06:35:04	will bitcoin reach 100k in august 2026	No	BUY	24	100¢	$24	0x3aba10…
07-18 07:56:16	Will Microsoft be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on July 31?	No	BUY	6	100¢	$6	0x794cfa…
07-18 07:55:57	Will xAI have the best Math AI model at the end of July 2026?	No	BUY	6	100¢	$6	0x52ce14…
07-18 07:55:42	Will Baidu have the best Chinese AI model at the end of July 2026?	No	BUY	6	100¢	$6	0x0782f0…
07-18 07:54:57	Will Moonshot have the best AI model at the end of July 2026?	No	BUY	5	100¢	$5	0x8a95e6…
07-11 05:50:07	Will Tesla be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on July 31?	No	BUY	13	100¢	$13	0x2417c3…
07-11 05:49:43	will xauusd dip to 3300 in july 2026	No	BUY	13	100¢	$13	0x98be96…
07-11 05:49:22	Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on July 31?	No	BUY	11	98¢	$11	0x02c0c5…
07-11 05:48:59	Will Elon Musk post 500+ tweets from July 14 to July 21, 2026?	No	BUY	14	100¢	$14	0xfb233a…
07-11 05:48:43	Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from July 10 to July 17, 2026?	No	BUY	12	100¢	$12	0xf54724…
07-11 05:48:29	Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from July 7 to July 14, 2026?	No	BUY	11	100¢	$11	0xd7832f…
06-24 05:43:35	Will Microsoft be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on June 30?	No	BUY	11	100¢	$11	0xd834b3…
06-24 05:43:05	will xauusd reach 5200 in june 2026	No	BUY	13	100¢	$13	0xfe4e0a…
06-24 05:42:50	Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $8,000 by end of June?	No	BUY	11	100¢	$11	0x96e352…
06-24 05:42:34	will spacexs valuation hit high 4pt0t by june 30	No	BUY	12	100¢	$12	0xbe0070…
06-24 05:42:10	Will SpaceX's market cap be at least $3.5T at market close on last trading day of IPO month?	No	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0x404c49…
06-12 02:51:30	bitcoin above 52k on june 13 2026	Yes	BUY	15	100¢	$15	0x142e77…
06-12 02:51:15	bitcoin above 68k on june 12 2026	No	BUY	14	100¢	$14	0xadf490…
06-12 02:35:36	Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30?	No	SELL	13	100¢	$13	0x84bdd4…
06-12 02:34:12	SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1T?	Yes	SELL	16	99¢	$16	0xc1c293…
06-08 07:50:36	Will SpaceX not IPO by December 31, 2027?	No	BUY	13	100¢	$13	0xbc9c77…
06-08 07:50:13	SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1T?	Yes	BUY	17	99¢	$17	0x9c61c8…
06-08 07:49:46	Will SpaceX not IPO by December 31, 2027?	No	BUY	14	100¢	$14	0x983d9d…
06-08 07:49:12	Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30?	No	BUY	14	100¢	$14	0x180c23…
06-08 07:48:48	Will Meta have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?	No	BUY	16	100¢	$16	0xbcd836…
05-29 03:01:03	Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $86,000 on June 1?	No	BUY	11	100¢	$11	0x3085fb…
05-29 03:00:44	Will the price of Bitcoin be between $80,000 and $82,000 on May 31?	No	BUY	14	100¢	$14	0x65237a…
05-29 03:00:25	Will the price of Bitcoin be between $80,000 and $82,000 on May 30?	No	BUY	12	100¢	$12	0xa01013…
05-29 02:59:11	MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	14	84¢	$12	0x2b63b1…
05-20 07:09:55	Will Bitcoin dip to $64,000 May 18-24?	No	BUY	11	100¢	$11	0x05f70b…
05-20 07:09:34	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $88,000 on May 23?	No	BUY	13	100¢	$13	0x102ee1…
05-20 07:09:22	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $86,000 on May 22?	No	BUY	13	100¢	$13	0x38c20f…
05-20 07:09:10	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on May 21?	No	BUY	12	100¢	$12	0x953a7e…
05-13 08:44:53	Will Ethereum dip to $600 in May?	No	BUY	11	100¢	$11	0x46d634…
05-13 08:44:39	Will Bitcoin dip to $30,000 in May?	No	BUY	12	100¢	$12	0x37386e…
05-13 08:44:13	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $90,000 on May 16?	No	BUY	16	100¢	$16	0xc84b04…
05-13 08:44:01	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $90,000 on May 15?	No	BUY	15	100¢	$15	0x0f2406…
05-13 08:43:48	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $86,000 on May 14?	No	BUY	18	100¢	$18	0x36df1b…
04-30 12:09:36	Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from April 28 to May 5, 2026?	No	BUY	21	100¢	$21	0x178979…
04-10 03:06:13	bitcoin above 58k on april 12	Yes	BUY	11	100¢	$11	0x819481…
04-10 03:06:05	bitcoin above 60k on april 11	Yes	BUY	11	100¢	$11	0xe9677c…
04-10 03:05:41	Will XRP dip to $0.20 in April?	No	BUY	11	100¢	$11	0x5a5e5e…
04-03 03:11:39	Will Solana dip to $10 in April?	No	BUY	12	100¢	$12	0x9f55e2…
04-03 03:11:27	Will Ethereum reach $4,000 in April?	No	BUY	15	100¢	$15	0x1d7165…
04-03 03:11:13	Will Bitcoin dip to $20,000 in April?	No	BUY	13	100¢	$13	0xf3b5f6…
04-01 03:28:09	bitcoin above 56k on april 3	Yes	BUY	12	100¢	$12	0xb11d5e…
04-01 03:27:49	bitcoin above 80k on april 2	No	BUY	12	100¢	$12	0x49298a…
04-01 03:27:13	bitcoin above 74k on april 1	No	BUY	12	100¢	$12	0x9b4f75…
03-29 03:08:06	elon musk of tweets march 24 march 31 400 419	No	BUY	11	100¢	$11	0xcf8a9a…
03-29 03:07:48	elon musk of tweets march 27 april 3 580plus	No	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0x496a43…
03-29 03:07:32	elon musk of tweets march 31 april 7 580plus	No	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0xe624cd…
03-29 03:05:52	will the iranian regime fall by march 31	No	SELL	9	99¢	$9	0xafa9b5…
03-29 03:05:40	will zai have the best ai model at the end of march 2026 189	No	SELL	9	100¢	$9	0x09baf5…
03-29 03:05:32	will gold gc hit high 10000 by end of march	No	SELL	9	100¢	$9	0x553391…
03-29 03:05:24	will silver si hit high 200 by end of march	No	SELL	5	100¢	$5	0xd867d2…
03-17 11:13:55	will xrp dip to 0pt2 in march 2026	No	BUY	11	100¢	$11	0x41fbce…
03-10 06:38:41	will the iranian regime fall by march 31	No	BUY	10	95¢	$10	0x1ff314…
03-10 06:37:39	us forces enter iran by march 14 337	No	BUY	11	88¢	$10	0x65ea9c…
03-10 06:36:57	will microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on march 31 889	No	SELL	9	100¢	$9	0x57393f…
03-06 07:18:39	will zai have the best ai model at the end of march 2026 189	No	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0xc70f5d…
03-06 07:18:17	will oracle be the third largest company in the world by market cap on march 31	No	BUY	12	100¢	$12	0x35f224…
03-06 07:18:03	will silver si hit high 200 by end of march	No	BUY	6	100¢	$6	0x8be76c…
03-06 07:17:47	will saudi aramco be the second largest company in the world by market cap on march 31	No	BUY	11	100¢	$11	0x044328…
03-06 07:17:33	will microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on march 31 889	No	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0x553d7a…
03-06 07:17:17	will gold gc hit high 10000 by end of march	No	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0xfaef2d…
03-06 07:16:57	will india win the 2026 icc mens t20 world cup	Yes	BUY	10	70¢	$7	0x668fa5…
02-22 04:05:08	Will MrBeast's next video get between 25 and 30 million views on day 1?	No	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0xd1a060…
02-22 04:04:48	elon musk of tweets february 21 february 23 240plus	No	BUY	14	100¢	$14	0xbafd14…
02-22 04:04:34	elon musk of tweets february 24 march 3 580plus	No	BUY	15	99¢	$15	0x6b3fcd…
02-22 04:04:16	elon musk of tweets february 20 february 27 560 579	No	BUY	13	100¢	$13	0x75ad41…
02-22 04:03:58	elon musk of tweets february 17 february 24 560 579	No	BUY	11	100¢	$11	0xf2be83…
02-22 04:02:14	will bitcoin reach 150k in february 2026	No	SELL	21	100¢	$21	0x09d20e…
02-22 04:02:08	will ethereum reach 5000 in february 2026	No	SELL	22	100¢	$22	0x20164e…
02-22 04:02:04	will solana reach 200 in february 2026	No	SELL	23	100¢	$23	0xd563b0…
02-05 10:49:17	Backpack FDV above $700M one day after launch?	Yes	BUY	61	36¢	$22	0xc2733d…
02-05 10:37:39	Backpack FDV above $700M one day after launch?	Yes	BUY	1	36¢	$0	0x0e0b57…
02-05 09:56:37	will ethereum reach 2900 february 2 8	No	BUY	24	100¢	$24	0x83521c…
02-05 09:56:05	will ethereum reach 5000 in february 2026	No	BUY	22	100¢	$22	0x5c588a…
02-05 09:55:43	will solana reach 200 in february 2026	No	BUY	23	99¢	$23	0xa430b4…
02-05 09:55:19	will bitcoin reach 150k in february 2026	No	BUY	21	100¢	$21	0x5323fb…
01-27 04:45:21	will the price of solana be between 100 110 on january 27	No	BUY	12	100¢	$12	0x3d6554…
01-27 04:45:01	will bitcoin reach 102k january 26 1	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0xc6531b…
01-27 04:44:39	xrp above 1pt7 on january 27	Yes	BUY	16	100¢	$16	0x3d2f4b…
01-27 04:44:19	will xrp reach 4 in january 2026	No	BUY	13	100¢	$13	0xd1df4f…
01-27 04:44:03	ethereum above 2700 on january 27	Yes	BUY	15	100¢	$15	0x54a06f…
01-26 05:54:12	solana above 140 on january 26	No	BUY	26	100¢	$26	0xb19da0…
01-26 05:53:50	will the price of ethereum be between 3200 3300 on january 26	No	BUY	15	100¢	$15	0x1921f9…
01-26 05:53:26	Zama FDV above $4B one day after launch?	No	BUY	15	99¢	$15	0x6043a3…
01-26 05:53:10	bitcoin above 92k on january 26	No	BUY	16	100¢	$16	0x4a891d…
01-26 05:50:46	fed decreases interest rates by 50 bps after january 2026 meeting	No	SELL	14	100¢	$14	0x58e575…
01-26 05:50:40	will the logan paul 1st edition charizard sale price be over 500k	Yes	SELL	30	99¢	$30	0x6c48b1…
01-20 05:33:46	will bitcoin reach 106k january 19 25	No	BUY	7	99¢	$7	0x3f66a3…