Sharp-Writer — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$746

Unrealized P&L

+$18

Hit rate

56.3%

Resolved

1,155

Trades

4,294

lifetime

Volume

$33.5K

lifetime

Avg / trade

Open exposure

$516

2 positions

First seen

2026-03-16

last 10-27 10:32

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 106 days

Categories

Other

69% 61% +$918

Crypto

30% 50% -$105

Politics

1% — —

Tech

0% 40% -$47

Sports

0% 0% -$20

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

36 active days in 12wk • peak 364 trades/day

Open positions (2) Resolved markets (28) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by December 31, 2026?	No		+331	$298	94¢	$312	+$15	10-02 05:41
NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026?	No		+250	$200	82¢	$204	+$4	09-08 09:03

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 22°C on May 1?	37	$501	256	256	+0	No	-$4	05-01 14:30
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 19°C on May 2?	18	$394	351	180	+171	No	+$4	05-02 07:00
Will the highest temperature in London be 14°C on May 7?	39	$328	273	214	+58	Yes	-$68	05-07 14:16
Will CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by December 31, 2026?	3	$298	331	0	+331	open	—	10-02 05:41
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 23°C on May 2?	14	$267	168	168	+0	No	-$2	05-02 12:45
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 15°C on May 7?	18	$253	145	121	+23	No	+$2	05-07 09:15
Will the highest temperature in London be 23°C on May 2?	17	$235	162	162	+0	Yes	-$15	05-02 12:15
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 29°C on May 5?	15	$221	130	130	+0	No	+$5	05-05 14:00
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 19°C on May 6?	21	$216	118	118	+0	No	-$2	05-06 12:36
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 9°C on April 28?	8	$213	156	91	+65	No	+$4	04-28 04:29
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 26°C on May 2?	14	$208	115	115	+0	No	+$20	05-02 17:15
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 22°C on May 6?	19	$205	120	120	+0	No	+$5	05-06 15:00
NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026?	1	$200	250	0	+250	open	—	09-08 09:03
Will AfD win an absolute majority of seats in Sachsen-Anhalt?	3	$200	246	0	+246	No	+$46	09-06 16:43
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 17°C on May 7?	15	$192	101	101	+0	No	+$6	05-07 12:30
Will the highest temperature in London be 21°C on May 2?	9	$189	117	117	+0	No	-$2	05-02 08:15
Will the highest temperature in London be 25°C on May 1?	15	$188	126	126	+0	No	-$23	05-01 12:30
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 13°C on May 6?	25	$176	142	142	+0	No	-$4	05-06 08:44
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 20°C on May 1?	20	$172	107	107	+0	No	-$6	05-01 13:45
Will London have less than 30mm of precipitation in September?	3	$164	247	247	+0	Yes	+$24	09-23 04:53
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 14°C on May 5?	28	$157	124	78	+45	No	+$9	05-05 09:00
highest temperature in london on april 16 2026 16c	8	$157	100	98	+2	No	+$31	04-16 11:36
highest temperature in madrid on april 10 2026 27c	9	$151	127	60	+67	No	+$7	04-10 14:03
highest temperature in paris on april 16 2026 19c	15	$151	141	138	+3	Yes	-$1	04-16 13:41
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 16°C on May 6?	19	$150	84	84	+0	No	+$7	05-06 07:00
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 14°C on May 6?	10	$149	81	78	+3	No	-$2	05-06 09:02
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-09-28 09:15 UTC	15	$144	147	120	+27	Up	-$16	09-28 09:20
Will the highest temperature in London be 12°C on May 6?	20	$142	136	46	+90	No	+$30	05-06 14:30
Next Grok Model (4.7+) released by September 18, 2026?	3	$137	124	124	+0	No	+$57	09-17 21:18
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 17°C or below on May 7?	25	$136	185	72	+113	Yes	-$85	05-07 13:30

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
10-27 10:32:17	Next Claude Sonnet (5.6+) released by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	85	59¢	$50	0x62d898…
10-26 18:19:41	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 26, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET	Down	SELL	60	6¢	$4	0x18be23…
10-26 18:19:32	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 26, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET	Down	BUY	60	96¢	$58	0x805b38…
10-26 18:19:30	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 26, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET	Down	BUY	0	96¢	$0	0x4d6187…
10-26 11:34:45	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 26, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET	Down	BUY	60	96¢	$58	0x34f0a4…
10-26 10:39:12	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 26, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET	Up	BUY	60	97¢	$58	0x38b8c9…
10-26 10:23:54	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 26, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET	Down	SELL	60	18¢	$11	0xaf34fd…
10-26 10:23:50	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 26, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET	Down	BUY	60	96¢	$58	0xc36437…
10-26 10:14:11	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 26, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET	Down	BUY	50	97¢	$49	0x88835a…
10-13 14:20:07	Will the highest temperature in London be 20°C on October 13?	Yes	BUY	3	32¢	$1	0xad4f6f…
10-13 13:42:07	Will the highest temperature in London be 21°C on October 13?	No	BUY	10	35¢	$4	0x05a5a4…
10-13 13:08:38	Gemini 4.0 released by October 13, 2026?	No	BUY	10	13¢	$1	0x737597…
10-13 13:08:23	Will the highest temperature in London be 20°C on October 13?	No	BUY	10	54¢	$5	0x949381…
10-13 13:07:29	Gemini 4.0 released by October 13, 2026?	Yes	BUY	3	86¢	$2	0x3f9d50…
10-13 13:03:59	Gemini 4.0 released by October 13, 2026?	Yes	BUY	7	86¢	$6	0x792ceb…
10-13 12:53:55	Will the highest temperature in London be 21°C on October 13?	Yes	BUY	10	64¢	$6	0xc2f177…
10-12 16:44:51	Will the highest temperature in London be 18°C on October 12?	No	BUY	10	40¢	$4	0xadb182…
10-12 16:25:44	Will the highest temperature in London be 18°C on October 12?	Yes	BUY	10	58¢	$6	0xdfa13c…
10-12 13:36:00	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	Yes	SELL	7	17¢	$1	0xfc24c3…
10-12 13:34:35	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	Yes	BUY	7	18¢	$1	0x674523…
10-12 11:10:39	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 12, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET	Up	BUY	5	30¢	$2	0x910d63…
10-09 12:48:58	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 9, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET	Down	BUY	5	28¢	$1	0x497321…
10-09 12:48:54	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 9, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET	Down	BUY	2	52¢	$1	0xd558a8…
10-09 12:48:54	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 9, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET	Down	BUY	3	52¢	$2	0xc9a00a…
10-09 12:38:12	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 9, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET	Down	BUY	2	55¢	$1	0x56e981…
10-09 12:38:10	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 9, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET	Down	BUY	3	55¢	$2	0x9114d9…
10-09 12:38:10	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 9, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET	Up	BUY	5	47¢	$2	0x87e0bc…
10-09 12:32:43	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 9, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET	Up	BUY	5	46¢	$2	0x0e8a40…
10-09 12:30:43	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 9, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET	Down	BUY	5	46¢	$2	0xb6fa2a…
10-09 12:30:42	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 9, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET	Down	BUY	5	56¢	$3	0x58d93a…
10-09 12:25:54	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-10-09 12:25 UTC	Up	BUY	5	26¢	$1	0x7e43a0…
10-09 12:16:09	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 9, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET	Up	BUY	5	61¢	$3	0x3e58b7…
10-09 12:11:25	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 9, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET	Up	BUY	5	34¢	$2	0x83647e…
10-09 12:11:15	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 9, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET	Up	BUY	5	45¢	$2	0x70c308…
10-09 12:07:01	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-10-09 12:05 UTC	Up	BUY	5	43¢	$2	0xfa12cd…
10-09 12:02:54	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 9, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET	Up	BUY	5	60¢	$3	0xc98e05…
10-09 12:02:37	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 9, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET	Down	BUY	5	34¢	$2	0xb255e2…
10-09 12:01:34	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 9, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET	Up	BUY	5	68¢	$3	0xaa819f…
10-09 12:01:15	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 9, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET	Down	BUY	5	43¢	$2	0xd19085…
10-09 11:57:21	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 9, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET	Up	BUY	5	68¢	$3	0x97fb2c…
10-09 11:51:18	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-10-09 11:50 UTC	Down	BUY	5	60¢	$3	0x4f04c5…
10-09 11:50:45	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-10-09 11:50 UTC	Up	BUY	5	25¢	$1	0x8e79be…
10-09 11:43:18	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 9, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET	Up	BUY	5	30¢	$2	0x1e9936…
10-09 11:35:51	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-10-09 11:35 UTC	Down	BUY	5	57¢	$3	0x68c028…
10-09 11:35:48	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-10-09 11:35 UTC	Up	BUY	5	43¢	$2	0x5516c7…
10-09 11:31:13	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 9, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET	Down	BUY	5	43¢	$2	0x54db97…
10-09 11:28:06	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 9, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET	Down	BUY	5	49¢	$2	0x78d664…
10-09 11:28:00	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 9, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET	Down	BUY	0	55¢	$0	0xf0c8ab…
10-09 11:28:00	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 9, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET	Down	BUY	5	55¢	$3	0xb25a41…
10-09 11:26:07	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 9, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET	Up	BUY	3	48¢	$1	0x04d843…
10-09 11:25:49	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 9, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET	Up	BUY	2	48¢	$1	0xa51318…
10-09 11:25:48	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 9, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET	Up	BUY	0	48¢	$0	0x4e34df…
10-09 11:20:49	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-10-09 11:20 UTC	Up	BUY	3	48¢	$1	0xf70392…
10-09 11:20:49	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-10-09 11:20 UTC	Up	BUY	2	48¢	$1	0x6153ae…
10-09 11:15:49	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 9, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET	Down	BUY	2	57¢	$1	0xade8f0…
10-09 11:15:49	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 9, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET	Down	BUY	3	57¢	$2	0x90c648…
10-09 11:15:34	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 9, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET	Up	BUY	5	44¢	$2	0xe1c83c…
10-09 11:02:21	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 9, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET	Up	BUY	5	29¢	$1	0x6bc600…
10-09 11:01:22	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 9, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET	Down	BUY	5	69¢	$3	0x3a79cf…
10-09 11:00:55	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 9, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET	Up	BUY	0	31¢	$0	0x66845b…
10-09 11:00:55	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 9, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET	Up	BUY	5	31¢	$2	0x4d2e95…
10-09 10:52:18	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-10-09 10:50 UTC	Down	BUY	3	42¢	$1	0x0e7162…
10-09 10:52:16	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-10-09 10:50 UTC	Down	BUY	2	42¢	$1	0x0991b6…
10-09 10:51:40	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-10-09 10:50 UTC	Down	BUY	5	64¢	$3	0xb408cb…
10-09 10:40:46	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 9, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET	Up	BUY	5	67¢	$3	0x7961fd…
10-09 10:40:33	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 9, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET	Down	BUY	5	38¢	$2	0x382724…
10-09 10:31:28	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-10-09 10:30 UTC	Up	BUY	5	58¢	$3	0xd65e8b…
10-09 10:28:13	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 9, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET	Down	BUY	5	31¢	$2	0xb49700…
10-09 10:21:22	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 9, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET	Up	BUY	5	35¢	$2	0xf0cd48…
10-09 10:15:51	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-10-09 10:15 UTC	Up	BUY	0	50¢	$0	0x770e3f…
10-09 10:15:49	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-10-09 10:15 UTC	Up	BUY	5	50¢	$2	0x261336…
10-09 10:08:25	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-10-09 10:05 UTC	Up	BUY	5	48¢	$2	0xc98d9c…
10-09 10:06:43	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 9, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET	Up	BUY	0	67¢	$0	0xf2e9e0…
10-09 10:06:43	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 9, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET	Up	BUY	5	67¢	$3	0x679ded…
10-09 10:06:22	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 9, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET	Down	BUY	5	29¢	$1	0xcb70f7…
10-09 10:05:37	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 9, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET	Down	BUY	5	29¢	$1	0xb2f2dc…
10-09 09:56:27	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-10-09 09:55 UTC	Up	BUY	5	57¢	$3	0x150356…
10-09 09:56:10	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-10-09 09:55 UTC	Down	BUY	3	41¢	$1	0x77f67b…
10-09 09:56:07	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-10-09 09:55 UTC	Down	BUY	2	41¢	$1	0xebdbd3…
10-09 09:43:48	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 9, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET	Up	BUY	5	66¢	$3	0x47de96…
10-09 09:43:30	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 9, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET	Down	BUY	5	33¢	$2	0xfbf3a7…
10-09 09:31:09	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 9, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET	Up	BUY	5	50¢	$2	0x2a42d9…
10-09 09:31:04	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 9, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET	Down	BUY	5	50¢	$2	0xdc7116…
10-09 09:21:43	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-10-09 09:20 UTC	Down	BUY	5	64¢	$3	0x355639…
10-09 09:21:42	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-10-09 09:20 UTC	Up	BUY	5	34¢	$2	0xe63659…
10-09 09:06:01	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 9, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET	Up	BUY	5	29¢	$1	0x449176…
10-09 09:05:48	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 9, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET	Down	BUY	5	67¢	$3	0xf62d75…
10-09 08:57:18	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 9, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET	Up	BUY	5	64¢	$3	0xd5607b…
10-09 08:57:00	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 9, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET	Down	BUY	5	25¢	$1	0xfbd585…
10-09 08:48:57	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 9, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET	Up	BUY	5	26¢	$1	0x3c34d0…
10-09 08:45:37	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 9, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET	Down	BUY	5	63¢	$3	0x039f55…
10-09 08:40:39	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 9, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET	Up	BUY	5	61¢	$3	0xc6d1e2…
10-09 08:35:37	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 9, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET	Down	BUY	5	29¢	$1	0x718131…
10-09 08:32:52	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 9, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET	Down	BUY	5	65¢	$3	0xab9480…
10-09 08:31:06	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 9, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET	Up	BUY	2	31¢	$1	0xe632f1…
10-09 08:31:06	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 9, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET	Up	BUY	2	31¢	$0	0xccf2e1…
10-09 08:31:06	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 9, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET	Up	BUY	1	31¢	$0	0x9b5c33…
10-09 08:26:28	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 9, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET	Down	BUY	5	29¢	$1	0x6d0b9f…
10-09 08:18:13	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 9, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET	Up	BUY	3	44¢	$1	0xf95d7b…
10-09 08:18:13	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 9, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET	Up	BUY	2	44¢	$1	0xcc9ef9…