Tan-Reduction — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$369

Unrealized P&L

+$380

Hit rate

74.0%

Resolved

890

Trades

6,926

lifetime

Volume

$285.6K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$41

Open exposure

$1.59K

11 positions

First seen

2026-01-03

last 11-02 12:55

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 196 days

Categories

Other

70% 60% -$1,335

Politics

26% 62% +$1,451

Tech

3% 57% +$99

Sports

1% 72% +$126

Crypto

0% 33% +$28

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

74 active days in 12wk • peak 68 trades/day

Open positions (11) Resolved markets (28) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 15?	Yes	+2,061	$938	60¢	$1.2K	+$298	11-01 10:36
Will OpenAI announce earbuds or headphones in 2026?	No	+162	$119	88¢	$142	+$23	09-21 21:47
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?	Yes	+2,200	$134	4¢	$99	-$35	10-29 23:03
Perim Island no longer under Houthi control by December 31?	Yes	+521	-$1	10¢	$52	+$53	11-02 10:26
Will OpenAI's valuation hit (LOW) $800B by December 31?	No	+40	$10	92¢	$37	+$27	10-06 21:27
Weed rescheduled by December 31?	Yes	+110	$28	10¢	$11	-$17	06-23 22:40
Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.5T by December 31?	No	+10	$7	84¢	$8	+$1	09-22 17:10
Will China’s 2026 annual GDP growth (Y/Y) be between 5.0% and 6.0%?	Yes	+150	$29	2¢	$3	-$26	07-20 03:24
Will OpenAI announce another Millennium Prize solution by December 31, 2026?	Yes	+14	$2	14¢	$2	$0	10-23 12:08
OpenAI IPO before 2027?	Yes	-38	-$44	3¢	$-1	+$43	05-30 14:09
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?	Yes	-40	-$14	1¢	$-1	+$13	08-26 20:06

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13?	41	$6.2K	3,357	3,357	+0	No	+$142	06-15 14:44
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?	55	$5.7K	5,171	5,171	+0	No	+$521	06-24 23:11
US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 22?	26	$4.9K	2,912	2,412	+500	Yes	+$254	10-25 22:26
Perim Island no longer under Houthi control by October 15?	39	$3.0K	1,937	1,896	+41	No	+$206	10-16 02:02
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	106	$3.0K	25,518	25,518	+0	No	+$660	07-01 14:47
will wti dip to 60 in july 2026 528	30	$2.7K	1,833	1,833	+0	No	+$234	07-07 06:13
US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 15?	33	$2.6K	3,764	1,702	+2,061	open	—	11-01 10:36
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026?	29	$2.6K	1,874	1,649	+225	No	+$66	05-27 00:57
Houthi x Saudi Arabia effective ceasefire by October 31?	18	$2.4K	1,363	1,363	+0	open	—	10-13 18:42
will cxmts closing ipo market cap be at least 3pt5t yuan 20260723150651778	15	$2.3K	1,472	1,472	+0	No	+$226	07-27 06:56
us x iran permanent peace deal by april 22 2026	31	$2.1K	1,400	1,400	+0	No	+$108	04-21 15:28
will spy dip to 725 by july 27 2026	21	$2.1K	1,570	1,540	+30	No	+$217	07-30 23:43
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $750 in October?	17	$2.0K	1,599	1,599	+0	No	+$476	10-30 20:08
fifwc arg cvi 2026 07 03 team to advance	16	$2.0K	1,837	500	+1,337	Argentina	+$25	07-04 00:35
will wti reach 85 in july 2026	40	$2.0K	1,841	1,841	+0	Yes	+$5	07-20 12:03
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?	26	$1.9K	1,727	1,727	+0	Yes	+$48	06-13 05:55
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31?	23	$1.9K	1,183	1,163	+20	No	+$74	05-30 12:53
will spacexs valuation hit high 3pt5t by june 30	16	$1.9K	1,031	1,031	+0	No	+$124	06-24 12:48
Starmer out by May 31, 2026?	21	$1.9K	1,131	1,131	+0	No	+$87	05-24 14:26
will spy dip to 710 in june 2026	30	$1.9K	1,514	900	+614	No	+$245	06-29 03:01
us announces new iran agreementceasefire extension by june 14	25	$1.8K	2,101	2,101	+0	Yes	-$144	06-14 21:37
iran full airspace closure by july 31 20260625195254150 838	17	$1.8K	1,228	1,228	+0	No	+$109	07-26 09:08
will 30 ships transit the strait of hormuz on any day by july 31 2026	30	$1.8K	2,172	2,172	+0	No	+$39	08-03 16:55
Starmer out by May 15, 2026?	15	$1.7K	941	941	+0	No	+$32	05-15 15:09
will wti dip to 65 in july 2026	47	$1.7K	2,885	2,885	+0	No	-$221	07-17 09:34
us announces new iran agreementceasefire extension by june 12 2482	15	$1.7K	1,234	1,234	+0	No	+$37	06-13 11:17
Will Figure's F.03 robots push at least 250,000 packages by 10:00 PM on May 21?	47	$1.7K	2,529	2,546	-17	No	-$61	05-22 01:07
fifwc prt hrv 2026 07 02 total 3pt5	18	$1.7K	1,163	1,163	+0	Under	-$235	07-03 01:06
will wti reach 80 in july 2026 791	34	$1.5K	2,951	1,786	+1,165	Yes	-$350	07-14 00:18
Will Anthropic’s valuation hit (HIGH) $1.1T by June 30?	39	$1.5K	1,994	1,994	+0	Yes	+$230	07-01 17:04

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
11-02 12:55:25	Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $740 in November?	No	BUY	400	43¢	$172	0xa2a777…
11-02 12:51:03	Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $730 in November?	No	BUY	6	60¢	$4	0x775fe8…
11-02 12:35:27	Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $730 in November?	No	BUY	100	60¢	$60	0x97393d…
11-02 10:26:15	Perim Island no longer under Houthi control by December 31?	Yes	BUY	300	11¢	$33	0xa354fc…
11-02 07:29:43	Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $730 in November?	No	BUY	120	62¢	$74	0x2ed707…
11-01 23:11:24	Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $740 in November?	No	BUY	120	50¢	$60	0x0adf5d…
11-01 10:36:04	US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 15?	Yes	BUY	300	50¢	$150	0x4dd7fa…
11-01 00:06:33	Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $730 in November?	No	BUY	110	65¢	$72	0x4cb2bd…
10-31 23:58:49	Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $730 in November?	No	BUY	100	65¢	$65	0x2146a1…
10-31 23:27:37	Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $730 in November?	No	BUY	500	68¢	$340	0x258cae…
10-31 23:17:28	US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 15?	Yes	BUY	2	48¢	$1	0x7fd2a3…
10-31 22:50:13	US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 15?	Yes	BUY	234	48¢	$113	0xf200f4…
10-31 22:40:00	US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 15?	Yes	BUY	63	48¢	$30	0x293a51…
10-31 22:39:55	US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 15?	Yes	BUY	11	48¢	$5	0xce386d…
10-31 22:23:54	US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 15?	Yes	BUY	0	48¢	$0	0x84002b…
10-31 14:40:34	Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $740 in November?	No	BUY	150	52¢	$78	0xdea92f…
10-31 14:40:34	Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $730 in November?	No	BUY	112	78¢	$87	0x9d3b66…
10-31 07:57:10	Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $740 in November?	No	BUY	50	52¢	$26	0x838acd…
10-30 21:50:28	US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 15?	Yes	BUY	100	49¢	$49	0x709d60…
10-30 21:46:42	spy closes above 755 on november 2 2026	Yes	BUY	120	59¢	$71	0xf9e3f7…
10-30 21:44:46	Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $8,000 (HIGH) in December?	Yes	BUY	61	33¢	$20	0xb04b63…
10-30 20:09:22	US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 15?	Yes	BUY	500	50¢	$250	0x917fe1…
10-30 20:08:25	Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $750 in October?	No	SELL	777	100¢	$776	0xf1a61b…
10-30 19:10:25	US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 15?	Yes	BUY	14	48¢	$7	0x404dfd…
10-30 19:08:34	US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 15?	Yes	BUY	81	48¢	$39	0x242554…
10-30 19:08:13	US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 15?	Yes	BUY	60	48¢	$29	0x508822…
10-30 19:07:36	Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $750 in October?	No	SELL	100	75¢	$75	0x379682…
10-30 19:02:42	US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 15?	Yes	BUY	70	44¢	$31	0x8ab87f…
10-30 19:02:09	S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $755 on October 30?	Yes	SELL	216	10¢	$23	0xfabffa…
10-30 18:41:01	Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $750 in October?	No	BUY	215	56¢	$121	0x2d3391…
10-30 18:40:46	US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 15?	Yes	SELL	266	48¢	$128	0xa3b4a0…
10-30 18:27:21	Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $750 Week of October 26 2026?	No	BUY	100	52¢	$52	0xb76925…
10-30 18:23:57	S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $755 on October 30?	Yes	BUY	5	25¢	$1	0x397a0c…
10-30 18:23:57	S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $755 on October 30?	Yes	BUY	59	25¢	$15	0x00d426…
10-30 18:20:43	Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $750 Week of October 26 2026?	No	BUY	120	60¢	$72	0x1e7ba0…
10-30 18:06:43	US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 15?	Yes	BUY	28	49¢	$14	0x1117c2…
10-30 17:57:01	S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $755 on October 30?	Yes	BUY	40	38¢	$15	0x2bb6cc…
10-30 17:56:28	US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 15?	Yes	SELL	250	48¢	$120	0xfcd934…
10-30 17:53:03	US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 15?	Yes	SELL	85	49¢	$42	0x1c56c1…
10-30 17:15:15	Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $755 Week of October 26 2026?	No	SELL	50	12¢	$6	0x8e2fb8…
10-30 16:11:55	Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $755 Week of October 26 2026?	No	BUY	100	48¢	$48	0x30c887…
10-30 16:10:27	Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $730 in October?	No	SELL	51	99¢	$50	0xab6f4b…
10-30 16:09:18	S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $760 on October 30?	Yes	BUY	20	21¢	$4	0x828ada…
10-30 14:23:34	Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $755 Week of October 26 2026?	No	BUY	20	58¢	$12	0x98d014…
10-30 14:22:33	S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $760 on October 30?	Yes	BUY	120	35¢	$42	0x87e242…
10-30 14:22:01	Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $755 Week of October 26 2026?	No	BUY	150	64¢	$95	0x10867d…
10-30 14:21:36	Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $755 Week of October 26 2026?	No	BUY	83	65¢	$54	0x521617…
10-30 14:21:03	US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 28?	Yes	SELL	200	98¢	$196	0xb87f39…
10-30 14:00:33	Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $755 Week of October 26 2026?	No	BUY	45	90¢	$41	0x50b7d6…
10-30 13:41:27	S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $760 on October 30?	Yes	BUY	150	63¢	$94	0x1fbfa9…
10-30 13:37:39	S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $755 on October 30?	Yes	BUY	92	90¢	$83	0xd59003…
10-30 13:36:21	Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $755 Week of October 26 2026?	No	BUY	100	74¢	$74	0x6df05b…
10-30 13:30:04	Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $755 Week of October 26 2026?	No	BUY	30	78¢	$23	0xb181ff…
10-30 13:28:31	US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 28?	Yes	SELL	200	99¢	$198	0xdf5dd8…
10-30 13:28:10	US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 28?	Yes	SELL	100	99¢	$99	0xe3db74…
10-30 11:28:31	Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $755 Week of October 26 2026?	No	BUY	90	83¢	$75	0xbbdda5…
10-30 08:13:07	S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $755 on October 30?	Yes	BUY	20	87¢	$17	0x355315…
10-30 01:48:27	Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $755 Week of October 26 2026?	No	BUY	32	79¢	$25	0xc98929…
10-30 00:48:01	US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 15?	Yes	SELL	206	48¢	$99	0x3e8a40…
10-30 00:47:46	US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 15?	Yes	SELL	84	48¢	$40	0xa3bd65…
10-30 00:40:33	US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 15?	Yes	SELL	10	48¢	$5	0x6561ba…
10-30 00:17:01	US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 15?	Yes	BUY	200	30¢	$60	0xed0e7d…
10-30 00:12:42	US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 15?	Yes	BUY	100	39¢	$39	0x9c12e4…
10-30 00:00:46	S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $760 on October 30?	Yes	SELL	1	83¢	$1	0xe85e88…
10-29 23:39:42	US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 28?	Yes	BUY	40	89¢	$36	0x67c20c…
10-29 23:24:57	US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 28?	Yes	BUY	40	89¢	$36	0xc6da26…
10-29 23:22:39	Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $760 in October?	No	SELL	200	60¢	$120	0xf8f899…
10-29 23:13:22	US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 28?	Yes	BUY	120	90¢	$107	0xfc0e43…
10-29 23:08:21	US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 15?	Yes	BUY	178	40¢	$71	0x7fb777…
10-29 23:07:07	US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 28?	Yes	BUY	300	90¢	$270	0x03fd8a…
10-29 23:03:58	Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?	Yes	BUY	400	6¢	$24	0x5d8e8d…
10-29 22:49:54	spy closes above 765 on october 30 2026	Yes	BUY	15	42¢	$6	0x14c403…
10-29 22:46:49	spy closes above 765 on october 30 2026	Yes	BUY	2	42¢	$1	0x57fb8e…
10-29 22:46:24	spy closes above 765 on october 30 2026	Yes	BUY	25	42¢	$10	0x2835c9…
10-29 22:42:09	US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 15?	Yes	SELL	200	55¢	$110	0xd2f4c8…
10-29 22:30:22	Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?	Yes	BUY	1,000	7¢	$70	0x31642d…
10-29 22:03:07	US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?	Yes	SELL	60	83¢	$50	0xe1cf88…
10-29 22:01:06	US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 15?	Yes	BUY	33	42¢	$14	0xd6530e…
10-29 22:00:58	US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 15?	Yes	BUY	168	42¢	$71	0x86fb41…
10-29 21:52:28	US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?	Yes	SELL	140	91¢	$127	0x898978…
10-29 21:50:00	Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $760 Week of October 26 2026?	No	BUY	120	62¢	$74	0x381c45…
10-29 21:48:24	Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $760 Week of October 26 2026?	No	BUY	120	62¢	$74	0xe98b51…
10-29 21:42:00	Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $760 in October?	No	BUY	110	67¢	$74	0xf283e5…
10-29 21:33:43	Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $760 in October?	No	BUY	110	67¢	$74	0xaf72f8…
10-29 21:31:24	S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $760 on October 30?	Yes	BUY	120	86¢	$103	0x57fb67…
10-29 21:21:24	S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $760 on October 29?	Yes	SELL	421	100¢	$421	0xabd70a…
10-29 21:21:09	S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $760 on October 30?	Yes	BUY	20	85¢	$17	0x29b462…
10-29 21:17:57	US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?	Yes	BUY	200	90¢	$180	0x6fb922…
10-29 21:08:10	S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $760 on October 30?	Yes	BUY	30	85¢	$26	0xf8ee70…
10-29 21:08:07	S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $760 on October 30?	Yes	BUY	50	85¢	$42	0x7f05c4…
10-29 21:02:33	S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $760 on October 30?	Yes	BUY	20	86¢	$17	0x32e63e…
10-29 21:02:21	S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $760 on October 30?	Yes	BUY	50	86¢	$43	0x18909b…
10-29 21:02:12	S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $760 on October 30?	Yes	BUY	50	86¢	$43	0x9a751f…
10-29 20:52:37	S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $760 on October 30?	Yes	BUY	50	89¢	$44	0xf7adda…
10-29 20:52:21	S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $760 on October 30?	Yes	BUY	50	89¢	$44	0x55ab27…
10-29 16:47:25	Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (HIGH) $800 in October?	No	SELL	50	100¢	$50	0x3a7143…
10-29 16:24:26	Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (HIGH) $790 in October?	No	SELL	214	99¢	$213	0x18d094…
10-29 14:37:38	S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $765 on October 29?	Yes	BUY	50	88¢	$44	0x369564…
10-29 14:36:58	S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $765 on October 29?	Yes	BUY	100	88¢	$88	0xcf01b6…
10-29 14:36:32	S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $765 on October 29?	Yes	BUY	100	88¢	$88	0x9bf92e…