Realized P&L
+$123.1K
Unrealized P&L
+$12.8K
Hit rate
64.3%
Resolved
270
Trades
6,604
lifetime
Volume
$2.60M
lifetime
Avg / trade
$393
Open exposure
$22.0K
4 positions
First seen
2026-01-09
last 07-10 05:08
Equity curve
cumulative realized P&L over 86 days
Categories
Politics
53%
58%
+$64,359
Other
43%
58%
+$45,462
Sports
3%
46%
+$4,859
Pop-Culture
0%
33%
+$8,432
Activity
No trades in the last 84 days (last trade 2026-07-10).
| Market | Outcome | Mid 30D | Net shares | Cost basis | Current mid | Current value | Unrealized P&L | Last trade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Iran leadership change by December 31? | No | -23,500 | -$25,797 | 86¢ | $-20092 | +$5,705 | 07-10 04:34 | |
| Insurrection Act invoked by December 31? | No | -2,400 | -$1,912 | 80¢ | $-1908 | +$4 | 07-10 05:02 | |
| Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? | No | +0 | -$7,108 | 82¢ | $0 | +$7,108 | 07-10 04:55 | |
| Will the Republican Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections? | Yes | +0 | $25 | 34¢ | $0 | -$25 | 05-25 19:58 |
| Market | Trades | Volume USD | Bought | Sold | Net shares | Resolution | P&L | Last activity |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| will the iranian regime fall by january 31 | 438 | $263.4K | 181,688 | 108,415 | +73,273 | No | +$24,519 | 01-30 14:53 |
| Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? | 164 | $143.8K | 0 | 149,536 | -149,536 | No | -$5,781 | 06-13 07:38 |
| us forces enter iran by march 31 222 191 243 517 878 439 519 | 270 | $140.4K | 97,637 | 97,640 | -3 | No | +$10,330 | 04-01 07:38 |
| Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? | 263 | $130.2K | 82,182 | 82,182 | +0 | open | — | 07-10 04:55 |
| will there be another us government shutdown by january 31 | 466 | $110.7K | 83,308 | 79,296 | +4,013 | Yes | -$9,910 | 01-30 15:31 |
| Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30? | 20 | $107.5K | 58,676 | 58,676 | +0 | No | +$6,784 | 04-14 17:09 |
| will france uk or germany strike iran by march 31 929 | 62 | $92.7K | 90,560 | 16,552 | +74,008 | No | +$14,300 | 03-30 18:12 |
| us strikes iran by january 31 2026 165 | 180 | $91.0K | 64,361 | 54,980 | +9,380 | No | +$4,798 | 01-29 16:58 |
| Iran leadership change by December 31? | 95 | $89.7K | 46,171 | 69,671 | -23,500 | open | — | 07-10 04:34 |
| Starmer out by March 31, 2026? | 77 | $67.6K | 36,334 | 36,334 | +0 | No | +$4,757 | 03-31 07:21 |
| US forces enter Iran by April 30? | 398 | $67.0K | 79,816 | 79,816 | +0 | Yes | -$4,728 | 04-02 06:58 |
| israel strikes iran by january 31 2026 894 994 453 | 157 | $59.0K | 38,063 | 51,890 | -13,827 | No | -$6,519 | 01-13 21:36 |
| US forces enter Iran by December 31? | 117 | $53.3K | 85,203 | 85,203 | +0 | Yes | -$4,398 | 04-02 22:12 |
| khamenei out as supreme leader of iran by january 31 | 111 | $51.8K | 61,645 | 0 | +61,645 | No | +$9,846 | 01-18 10:41 |
| US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? | 106 | $44.6K | 63,376 | 14,465 | +48,911 | Yes | +$17,544 | 06-14 22:38 |
| Will Mojtaba Khamenei be the next Supreme Leader of Iran? | 26 | $41.4K | 52,792 | 13,324 | +39,467 | Yes | +$11,025 | 03-05 22:39 |
| israel strikes iran by january 16 2026 418 | 21 | $40.9K | 50,468 | 0 | +50,468 | No | +$9,568 | 01-10 04:01 |
| Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Viktor Orbán? | 123 | $37.7K | 19,025 | 30,000 | -10,975 | No | -$23 | 04-13 11:06 |
| Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar? | 13 | $35.0K | 25,000 | 25,000 | +0 | Yes | +$110 | 04-11 16:54 |
| US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? | 5 | $34.8K | 23,100 | 23,100 | +0 | No | -$2,022 | 04-17 21:24 |
| Iran leadership change by April 30? | 51 | $29.1K | 34,624 | 0 | +34,624 | No | +$5,565 | 04-14 00:52 |
| Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 30? | 30 | $26.1K | 18,479 | 20,300 | -1,821 | No | -$1,141 | 03-26 01:25 |
| us strikes iran by february 13 2026 721 759 497 124 197 797 992 641 418 789 676 262 791 574 169 647 275 931 | 52 | $25.4K | 19,569 | 20,000 | -431 | No | -$1,887 | 02-01 11:27 |
| us strikes iran by february 6 2026 242 933 289 312 673 611 155 294 | 45 | $25.0K | 17,261 | 17,500 | -239 | No | -$2,091 | 01-29 16:29 |
| Will US or Israel strike Iran by January 31, 2026? | 43 | $22.4K | 20,375 | 5,000 | +15,375 | No | +$1,448 | 01-29 17:09 |
| Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 30? | 37 | $22.4K | 28,125 | 187 | +27,938 | Yes | +$5,655 | 04-19 19:25 |
| iran x israelus conflict ends by april 7 346 | 12 | $22.3K | 30,813 | 0 | +30,813 | Yes | +$8,525 | 04-19 06:09 |
| Starmer out by June 30, 2026? | 30 | $22.2K | 15,000 | 22,474 | -7,474 | Yes | +$5,483 | 06-19 22:28 |
| israel strikes iran by march 31 2026 | 83 | $20.3K | 21,901 | 22,449 | -548 | Yes | -$1,010 | 02-22 14:59 |
| will the us not strike iran by january 31 2026 314 | 77 | $19.9K | 19,732 | 4,722 | +15,010 | Yes | +$3,191 | 01-29 17:01 |
| Wallet | Shared markets | Overlap volume | Overlap trades | Last seen |
|---|---|---|---|---|
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