Scaly-Clarinet — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$27.9K

Unrealized P&L

-$1.58K

Hit rate

69.9%

Resolved

Trades

162

lifetime

Volume

$93.8K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$579

Open exposure

$283

1 position

First seen

2026-03-15

last 10-28 19:46

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 35 days

Categories

Politics

70% 33% +$41,173

Other

20% 4% -$15,142

Crypto

6% 73% +$1,431

Sports

4% 17% +$486

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

2 active days in 12wk • peak 2 trades/day

Open positions (1) Resolved markets (29) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will the Baltimore Ravens win the 2027 NFL league championship?	Yes		+26,951	$1,860	1¢	$283	-$1,577	08-06 19:40

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
us x iran ceasefire by april 7	6	$32.5K	48,531	48,531	+0	Yes	+$27,395	04-07 23:04
us x iran ceasefire by april 15	6	$22.5K	21,247	21,247	+0	Yes	+$16,992	04-07 23:34
us x iran ceasefire by march 31	10	$5.2K	48,688	34,861	+13,827	No	-$3,097	03-31 01:23
us x iran ceasefire by april 30	5	$3.5K	4,529	4,529	+0	Yes	+$932	04-07 23:34
will train dreams win best cinematography at the 98th academy awards	5	$2.0K	20,922	0	+20,922	No	-$2,009	03-15 22:07
Will Sung-Jae Im win the 2026 FedEx St. Jude Championship?	1	$1.9K	14,186	0	+14,186	No	-$1,901	08-16 15:38
Will the Baltimore Ravens win the 2027 NFL league championship?	1	$1.9K	26,951	0	+26,951	open	—	08-06 19:40
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET	5	$1.7K	1,246	1,200	+46	Up	+$514	04-25 19:24
mlb bal lad 2026 06 19	1	$1.2K	3,299	0	+3,299	Los Angeles Dodgers	-$1,155	06-20 01:12
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on May 19?	3	$1.1K	6,967	0	+6,967	Down	-$1,122	05-19 14:53
will ludvig aberg win the 2026 masters tournament	2	$1.1K	14,069	7,034	+7,034	No	-$911	04-10 12:31
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on May 12?	3	$1.1K	31,001	4,340	+26,661	Down	-$852	05-12 19:56
will shane lowry win the 2026 masters tournament	7	$1.1K	26,530	5,800	+20,730	No	-$544	04-12 14:03
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by April 30?	2	$834	3,844	3,844	+0	No	-$78	04-08 18:24
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET	3	$818	657	624	+33	Down	+$451	04-25 20:40
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-04-24 01:25 UTC	2	$740	573	546	+27	Down	+$367	04-24 01:30
will cameron young win the 2026 masters tournament	3	$634	2,615	2,615	+0	No	-$62	04-11 21:18
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET	2	$525	569	543	+27	Up	+$152	04-25 20:29
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on May 15?	4	$511	9,985	0	+9,985	Down	-$511	05-15 15:46
will bryson dechambeau win the 2026 masters tournament	3	$511	5,972	5,972	+0	No	-$445	04-10 12:33
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	1	$500	2,488	0	+2,488	Yes	+$1,988	07-12 17:54
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18?	1	$500	2,083	0	+2,083	No	-$500	06-18 23:50
Will Hideki Matsuyama win the 2026 PGA Championship?	3	$500	13,128	0	+13,128	No	-$500	05-17 18:02
will train dreams win best picture at the 98th academy awards 736	1	$500	37,466	0	+37,466	No	-$500	03-15 22:41
will russell henley win the 2026 masters tournament	3	$498	6,093	0	+6,093	No	-$498	04-12 18:43
will hao tong li win the 2026 masters tournament	4	$481	12,531	0	+12,531	No	-$481	04-11 21:22
Will Nick Taylor win the 2026 PGA Championship?	2	$477	5,656	0	+5,656	No	-$477	05-17 19:32
Will Spencer Pratt win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?	1	$451	1,766	0	+1,766	No	-$451	05-21 03:23
Will Davis Riley win the 2026 Rocket Classic?	2	$435	11,246	1,000	+10,246	No	-$85	08-02 02:42
will jason day win the 2026 masters tournament	3	$404	8,337	0	+8,337	No	-$404	04-11 21:18

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
10-28 19:46:37	US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by October 31?	Yes	BUY	5,053	4¢	$200	0x9fa3c7…
10-28 19:46:08	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	7,818	3¢	$220	0xcf39ef…
08-16 15:38:54	Will Sung-Jae Im win the 2026 FedEx St. Jude Championship?	Yes	BUY	14,186	13¢	$1,901	0xdc2ed0…
08-08 02:34:54	Will Tom Hoge win the 2026 Wyndham Championship?	Yes	BUY	9,286	2¢	$201	0x5fcfb0…
08-06 19:40:24	Will the Baltimore Ravens win the 2027 NFL league championship?	Yes	BUY	26,951	7¢	$1,860	0xfb08cf…
08-02 02:42:51	Will Kevin Yu win the 2026 Rocket Classic?	Yes	BUY	3,499	1¢	$40	0xa4e7ca…
08-02 02:42:11	Will Davis Riley win the 2026 Rocket Classic?	Yes	SELL	1,000	18¢	$175	0xd88b99…
08-01 03:49:53	Will Luke Clanton win the 2026 Rocket Classic?	Yes	BUY	3,063	1¢	$38	0x0b1602…
08-01 03:49:32	Will Davis Riley win the 2026 Rocket Classic?	Yes	BUY	11,246	2¢	$260	0x75aca4…
07-29 12:17:17	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	Yes	BUY	7,500	0¢	$30	0xaf138e…
07-29 12:15:11	Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	25,000	0¢	$50	0x7ee5f9…
07-25 00:24:12	Will Denny McCarthy win the 2026 3M Open?	Yes	BUY	2,808	4¢	$100	0x488f32…
07-18 19:29:09	Will Ryan Gerard win the 2026 The Open Championship?	Yes	BUY	359	7¢	$25	0xb87499…
07-18 19:28:54	Will Ryan Fox win the 2026 The Open Championship?	Yes	BUY	289	11¢	$33	0x4a70b9…
07-16 16:05:08	Will Bud Cauley win the 2026 The Open Championship?	Yes	BUY	12,211	2¢	$230	0x28897f…
07-12 17:54:53	Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	BUY	2,488	20¢	$500	0x0919f8…
07-11 20:32:25	fifwc nor eng 2026 07 11 team to advance	Norway	BUY	625	32¢	$200	0x5f63d0…
07-11 20:31:17	fifwc nor eng 2026 07 11 goals antonio nusa gte1	Yes	BUY	2,181	9¢	$200	0x419b3e…
07-06 02:37:11	fifwc mex eng 2026 07 05 team to advance	Mexico	BUY	556	36¢	$200	0xba8833…
07-05 20:07:38	Will Norway win on 2026-07-05?	Yes	BUY	1,146	25¢	$286	0xcc52b1…
07-03 01:30:02	Will Taylor Pendrith win the 2026 John Deere Classic?	Yes	BUY	2,370	2¢	$50	0x34653b…
07-02 00:07:04	Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-07-01?	Yes	BUY	1,111	9¢	$100	0x73da00…
06-20 16:49:53	Will Sam Burns win the 2026 U.S. Open?	Yes	BUY	1,917	4¢	$82	0xc3291c…
06-20 16:48:58	Will Justin Thomas win the 2026 U.S. Open?	Yes	BUY	2,318	5¢	$110	0x10e1c9…
06-20 16:48:40	Will Tom Kim win the 2026 U.S. Open?	Yes	BUY	2,608	5¢	$120	0xade86b…
06-20 16:42:13	Will Tom Kim win the 2026 U.S. Open?	Yes	BUY	111	4¢	$5	0x765c4b…
06-20 01:12:05	mlb bal lad 2026 06 19	Baltimore Orioles	BUY	3,299	35¢	$1,155	0x3cf281…
06-20 00:24:22	Will Haiti win on 2026-06-19?	Yes	BUY	476	5¢	$22	0xf8fa03…
06-20 00:24:10	Will Brazil vs. Haiti end in a draw?	Yes	BUY	250	8¢	$20	0xffa31f…
06-20 00:24:01	Will Haiti win on 2026-06-19?	Yes	BUY	652	5¢	$30	0xe557bb…
06-19 21:07:11	Will Scotland win on 2026-06-19?	Yes	BUY	625	16¢	$100	0x70ce8e…
06-19 16:31:05	Will Brian Harman win the 2026 U.S. Open?	Yes	BUY	1,134	3¢	$30	0xe5e388…
06-19 16:16:37	Will Australia win on 2026-06-19?	Yes	BUY	1,158	19¢	$220	0xcef5cd…
06-19 02:37:13	Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw?	Yes	BUY	588	17¢	$100	0xa076f0…
06-18 23:50:59	Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18?	Yes	BUY	2,083	24¢	$500	0x1831df…
05-21 03:23:03	Will Spencer Pratt win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?	Yes	BUY	1,766	26¢	$451	0xc72883…
05-19 14:53:04	SPY (SPY) Up or Down on May 19?	Up	BUY	1,154	9¢	$100	0xfa911f…
05-19 14:25:13	SPY (SPY) Up or Down on May 19?	Up	BUY	3,586	12¢	$415	0x0500be…
05-19 13:39:41	SPY (SPY) Up or Down on May 19?	Up	BUY	2,227	27¢	$607	0x5582e9…
05-17 19:32:20	Will Nick Taylor win the 2026 PGA Championship?	Yes	BUY	2,347	12¢	$277	0xd4b45e…
05-17 18:59:02	Will Joaquin Niemann win the 2026 PGA Championship?	Yes	BUY	2,440	4¢	$100	0xa1c537…
05-17 18:56:26	Will Joaquin Niemann win the 2026 PGA Championship?	Yes	BUY	2,567	4¢	$100	0x46c72e…
05-17 18:02:16	Will Hideki Matsuyama win the 2026 PGA Championship?	Yes	BUY	2,291	4¢	$100	0x00e63b…
05-17 17:59:09	Will Kristoffer Reitan win the 2026 PGA Championship?	Yes	BUY	2,020	2¢	$50	0xb0cbc6…
05-17 17:48:18	Will Hideki Matsuyama win the 2026 PGA Championship?	Yes	BUY	3,444	6¢	$200	0xe9d92c…
05-17 17:43:40	Will Matti Schmid win the 2026 PGA Championship?	Yes	BUY	3,264	3¢	$109	0xe3d772…
05-17 17:42:47	Will Nick Taylor win the 2026 PGA Championship?	Yes	BUY	3,309	6¢	$200	0xc5e3cb…
05-17 17:42:21	Will Justin Rose win the 2026 PGA Championship?	Yes	BUY	1,148	4¢	$50	0x1b2590…
05-17 17:41:32	Will Hideki Matsuyama win the 2026 PGA Championship?	Yes	BUY	7,393	3¢	$200	0x9c32f6…
05-15 15:46:00	SPY (SPY) Up or Down on May 15?	Up	BUY	2,639	4¢	$110	0x6fb849…
05-15 15:19:29	SPY (SPY) Up or Down on May 15?	Up	BUY	2,122	5¢	$100	0x2a312e…
05-15 14:54:05	SPY (SPY) Up or Down on May 15?	Up	BUY	3,333	6¢	$200	0xaa620a…
05-15 14:18:51	SPY (SPY) Up or Down on May 15?	Up	BUY	1,891	5¢	$101	0x78424d…
05-12 19:56:47	S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on May 12?	Up	SELL	4,340	3¢	$109	0xa50cc2…
05-12 17:02:45	S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on May 12?	Up	BUY	8,588	2¢	$161	0x8fb14a…
05-12 15:30:59	S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on May 12?	Up	BUY	22,413	4¢	$800	0x06523d…
04-26 20:06:02	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET	Up	SELL	190	99¢	$188	0x755fb8…
04-26 20:03:08	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET	Up	BUY	200	30¢	$60	0xe54b00…
04-25 20:44:02	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET	Down	SELL	462	48¢	$224	0x49b1c3…
04-25 20:43:02	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET	Down	BUY	639	26¢	$169	0x7ea55d…
04-25 20:40:46	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET	Down	SELL	624	99¢	$618	0xcf66d3…
04-25 20:36:54	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET	Down	BUY	356	28¢	$100	0x9c75aa…
04-25 20:36:14	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET	Down	BUY	301	33¢	$100	0x479fab…
04-25 20:34:30	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET	Up	BUY	613	15¢	$92	0x974e6b…
04-25 20:34:02	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET	Up	SELL	523	5¢	$26	0x2d6e30…
04-25 20:31:44	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET	Up	BUY	356	28¢	$100	0x3d8054…
04-25 20:30:38	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET	Up	BUY	192	52¢	$100	0xe3bc8b…
04-25 20:29:42	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET	Up	SELL	543	60¢	$325	0x5c7529…
04-25 20:28:46	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET	Up	BUY	569	35¢	$200	0x9c281c…
04-25 19:31:20	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET	Down	BUY	770	39¢	$300	0x166e52…
04-25 19:27:48	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET	Up	BUY	715	14¢	$100	0xaf821b…
04-25 19:25:52	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET	Up	BUY	706	28¢	$200	0x069f99…
04-25 19:24:52	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET	Up	SELL	1,159	89¢	$1,037	0x7d1276…
04-25 19:24:52	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET	Up	SELL	41	76¢	$31	0x7681b3…
04-25 19:23:16	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET	Up	BUY	646	46¢	$298	0x989614…
04-25 19:23:16	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET	Up	BUY	206	50¢	$102	0x28029a…
04-25 19:22:58	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET	Up	BUY	394	51¢	$201	0x0784ff…
04-24 12:34:54	us x iran permanent peace deal by april 24 2026	Yes	BUY	24,418	0¢	$100	0x8fe8a2…
04-24 01:50:48	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-04-24 01:45 UTC	Up	SELL	205	99¢	$203	0x18bf05…
04-24 01:45:38	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-04-24 01:45 UTC	Up	BUY	213	47¢	$100	0x0da989…
04-24 01:30:06	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-04-24 01:25 UTC	Down	SELL	546	99¢	$540	0xc1545a…
04-24 01:27:28	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-04-24 01:25 UTC	Down	BUY	573	35¢	$200	0xb232b5…
04-24 01:23:38	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-04-24 01:20 UTC	Up	BUY	567	11¢	$60	0x7253ee…
04-24 01:22:58	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-04-24 01:20 UTC	Up	BUY	544	37¢	$200	0x6ad683…
04-12 18:43:49	will russell henley win the 2026 masters tournament	Yes	BUY	4,867	3¢	$157	0xf2599c…
04-12 18:43:49	will russell henley win the 2026 masters tournament	Yes	BUY	945	24¢	$230	0xea2fe0…
04-12 18:43:49	will russell henley win the 2026 masters tournament	Yes	BUY	281	40¢	$111	0x29d862…
04-12 14:03:07	will shane lowry win the 2026 masters tournament	Yes	BUY	3,820	6¢	$248	0xf737d9…
04-12 14:02:15	will shane lowry win the 2026 masters tournament	Yes	BUY	3,846	6¢	$250	0x620146…
04-11 21:22:13	will hao tong li win the 2026 masters tournament	Yes	BUY	2,110	4¢	$84	0x20b227…
04-11 21:21:51	will shane lowry win the 2026 masters tournament	Yes	SELL	2,000	4¢	$84	0xeaef4a…
04-11 21:18:43	will jason day win the 2026 masters tournament	Yes	BUY	4,755	6¢	$286	0xb20095…
04-11 21:18:13	will cameron young win the 2026 masters tournament	Yes	SELL	2,615	11¢	$286	0x207a7a…
04-11 21:08:25	will cameron young win the 2026 masters tournament	Yes	BUY	365	21¢	$78	0xe558fc…
04-11 21:08:03	will shane lowry win the 2026 masters tournament	Yes	SELL	2,000	4¢	$78	0xac9ddb…
04-11 20:25:39	will wyndham clark win the 2026 masters tournament	Yes	BUY	3,048	3¢	$92	0x640052…
04-11 20:25:23	will shane lowry win the 2026 masters tournament	Yes	SELL	1,800	5¢	$92	0x3c9016…
04-11 20:23:41	will cameron young win the 2026 masters tournament	Yes	BUY	2,250	12¢	$270	0xa72d97…
04-11 19:20:43	will sam burns win the 2026 masters tournament	Yes	BUY	3,091	11¢	$330	0xdce16d…
04-11 19:18:45	will hao tong li win the 2026 masters tournament	Yes	BUY	2,540	4¢	$97	0xd37108…