Grand-Beak — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$7.67K

Unrealized P&L

-$201

Hit rate

58.8%

Resolved

Trades

4,784

lifetime

Volume

$710.9K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$149

Open exposure

$234

1 position

First seen

2026-03-04

last 07-22 18:40

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 5 days

Categories

Politics

56% 50% +$7,812

Other

40% 20% $-145

Sports

4% — —

Crypto

0% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

81 active days in 12wk • peak 207 trades/day

Open positions (1) Resolved markets Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Israel and Saudi Arabia normalize relations before 2027?	Yes		-2,462	$-33	10¢	$-234	$-201	07-21 15:21

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	174	$75.0K	281,176	288,739	-7,563	open	—	06-20 13:11
israel closes its airspace by june 15 687	251	$49.1K	104,715	91,763	+12,951	open	—	06-14 21:16
iran x israelus conflict ends by april 15 618 586 982	69	$41.7K	63,876	65,876	-2,000	open	—	04-13 17:49
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	164	$34.5K	288,515	282,077	+6,439	open	—	05-27 12:31
iran x israelus conflict ends by april 7 346	72	$27.7K	52,833	52,833	+0	open	—	04-21 18:05
will israel launch a major ground offensive in lebanon by march 31	34	$19.4K	13,983	13,983	+0	open	—	03-14 21:01
usisrael strike on fordow nuclear facility by march 31 388	220	$19.0K	21,027	24,164	-3,137	open	—	03-25 18:02
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31?	134	$18.5K	97,293	97,963	-669	open	—	05-23 10:29
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30?	109	$14.3K	56,756	56,756	+0	open	—	03-24 18:49
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30?	93	$12.2K	200,437	171,141	+29,296	open	—	06-14 19:38
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?	36	$12.1K	24,593	24,593	+0	open	—	04-16 23:35
england mexico game rescheduled to different time 20260703205906835	22	$12.1K	9,283	9,283	+0	open	—	07-06 00:06
iran closes its airspace by june 15	25	$11.7K	19,026	19,026	-0	open	—	06-07 20:55
iran closes its airspace by june 8	25	$11.6K	14,468	14,468	+0	open	—	06-07 20:49
will the iranian regime fall by march 31	169	$11.3K	83,083	112,378	-29,295	open	—	03-17 22:00
Iran leadership change by May 31?	100	$10.1K	62,713	62,713	+0	open	—	05-30 17:34
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 30, 2026?	114	$9.3K	18,593	18,593	+0	open	—	04-25 14:39
strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by june 15	290	$8.6K	122,382	140,610	-18,228	open	—	06-17 23:33
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31?	75	$8.1K	96,694	105,029	-8,335	open	—	05-29 22:05
israel announces lebanon ceasefire extension by june 7	30	$7.9K	5,814	5,814	+0	open	—	06-04 10:11
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 22, 2026?	33	$7.6K	28,415	8,000	+20,415	open	—	04-21 13:56
us x iran ceasefire by april 15	25	$7.5K	8,203	8,203	+0	open	—	04-07 23:10
kharg island no longer under iranian control by july 31	60	$7.1K	127,191	127,191	+0	open	—	07-18 21:41
israel closes its airspace by july 24	58	$6.9K	46,684	26,947	+19,737	open	—	07-22 13:43
will ronaldo cry at the world cup 20260604013616610	43	$6.8K	8,967	8,967	+0	open	—	07-07 19:32
Internet Access restored in Iran by May 31, 2026?	14	$6.6K	6,595	6,595	+0	open	—	05-26 15:35
Israel closes its airspace by June 30?	19	$6.2K	24,675	10,828	+13,847	open	—	06-28 00:58
us x iran diplomatic meeting by june 19 2026 475	14	$5.9K	6,214	6,214	+0	open	—	06-18 17:06
will iran announce withdrawal from mou negotiations by july 31 20260622191733846 586 829 787	62	$5.8K	35,193	11,777	+23,416	open	—	07-22 18:00
Gaza flotilla enters Israeli waters by May 31?	12	$4.9K	3,115	3,115	+0	open	—	05-20 17:28

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
07-22 19:39:39	will iran announce withdrawal from mou negotiations by july 24	Yes	BUY	44	5¢	$2	0xee9d94…
07-22 18:40:04	iran full airspace closure by july 24	Yes	BUY	1,000	14¢	$140	0xd7bdde…
07-22 18:39:18	iran full airspace closure by july 24	Yes	BUY	7	14¢	$1	0x8bebe4…
07-22 18:39:18	iran full airspace closure by july 24	Yes	BUY	1	14¢	$0	0x3c6430…
07-22 18:32:22	israel closes its airspace by july 31 287	Yes	BUY	800	25¢	$200	0x67d96d…
07-22 18:22:45	iran full airspace closure by july 24	Yes	BUY	0	14¢	$0	0x29eb7f…
07-22 18:04:16	will iran announce withdrawal from mou negotiations by july 24	Yes	BUY	417	5¢	$20	0x04b9a8…
07-22 18:00:51	will iran announce withdrawal from mou negotiations by july 31 20260622191733846 586 829 787	Yes	SELL	50	10¢	$5	0x7789fe…
07-22 18:00:31	will iran announce withdrawal from mou negotiations by july 31 20260622191733846 586 829 787	Yes	SELL	200	10¢	$20	0x15f89b…
07-22 17:54:03	iran full airspace closure by july 24	Yes	BUY	87	14¢	$12	0x9b4237…
07-22 17:46:19	will iran announce withdrawal from mou negotiations by july 31 20260622191733846 586 829 787	Yes	BUY	91	11¢	$10	0x820ba1…
07-22 17:40:04	iran leadership change by july 31 20260629143932628	Yes	BUY	390	5¢	$20	0xe5f923…
07-22 15:56:52	will the iranian regime fall by september 30 20260629143335077	Yes	BUY	2,500	4¢	$100	0x7bb45b…
07-22 15:56:46	will the iranian regime fall by september 30 20260629143335077	Yes	BUY	2,502	4¢	$100	0x9aa6d0…
07-22 15:56:27	israel x iran ceasefire continues through july 25 20260716224448967	No	BUY	690	29¢	$200	0xd40a15…
07-22 15:56:03	israel closes its airspace by july 31 287	Yes	BUY	833	24¢	$200	0x0abe9f…
07-22 15:53:49	israel military action against yemen by july 31 20260714001321877	Yes	BUY	1,400	10¢	$140	0x6d8a45…
07-22 15:52:52	israel x iran ceasefire continues through july 25 20260716224448967	No	BUY	357	28¢	$100	0x688950…
07-22 15:16:49	will iran announce withdrawal from mou negotiations by july 24	Yes	BUY	5,000	4¢	$215	0xd7ef72…
07-22 15:11:12	will the iranian regime fall by september 30 20260629143335077	Yes	BUY	5,053	4¢	$200	0xe9b171…
07-22 15:07:22	will iran announce withdrawal from mou negotiations by july 24	Yes	BUY	2,090	5¢	$100	0x04e0cf…
07-22 14:39:37	will iran announce withdrawal from mou negotiations by july 31 20260622191733846 586 829 787	Yes	BUY	8	10¢	$1	0x210bb9…
07-22 14:39:18	will iran announce withdrawal from mou negotiations by july 31 20260622191733846 586 829 787	Yes	SELL	7,000	10¢	$700	0x6c259c…
07-22 14:02:12	will iran announce withdrawal from mou negotiations by july 24	Yes	BUY	36	4¢	$1	0x2fcbf8…
07-22 13:58:55	iran leadership change by july 31 20260629143932628	Yes	BUY	944	4¢	$42	0x53b14d…
07-22 13:50:10	israel x iran ceasefire continues through july 25 20260716224448967	No	BUY	200	25¢	$50	0xa90cae…
07-22 13:49:34	will iran announce withdrawal from mou negotiations by july 24	Yes	BUY	20	4¢	$1	0xc308b9…
07-22 13:43:30	israel closes its airspace by july 24	Yes	BUY	5,000	10¢	$500	0xddbfc9…
07-22 13:22:48	iran leadership change by july 31 20260629143932628	Yes	BUY	1	5¢	$0	0x39c749…
07-22 13:22:46	iran leadership change by july 31 20260629143932628	Yes	BUY	54	4¢	$2	0x1313da…
07-22 00:18:09	israel x iran ceasefire continues through july 22 20260716224448966	No	SELL	1,250	9¢	$109	0x13d9c7…
07-22 00:00:39	will iran announce withdrawal from mou negotiations by july 31 20260622191733846 586 829 787	Yes	BUY	5	8¢	$0	0x532df9…
07-21 23:52:25	israel closes its airspace by july 24	Yes	SELL	6,612	9¢	$595	0x8a945c…
07-21 23:31:30	will iran announce withdrawal from mou negotiations by july 31 20260622191733846 586 829 787	Yes	BUY	6	8¢	$0	0xda53de…
07-21 23:26:01	will iran announce withdrawal from mou negotiations by july 31 20260622191733846 586 829 787	Yes	BUY	1,000	8¢	$80	0x9b27b9…
07-21 23:04:28	will iran announce withdrawal from mou negotiations by july 31 20260622191733846 586 829 787	Yes	BUY	230	8¢	$18	0x36a711…
07-21 22:46:37	will iran announce withdrawal from mou negotiations by july 31 20260622191733846 586 829 787	Yes	BUY	2,222	9¢	$200	0xc7e25b…
07-21 22:46:25	will iran announce withdrawal from mou negotiations by july 31 20260622191733846 586 829 787	Yes	BUY	1,111	9¢	$100	0x989c11…
07-21 22:46:00	will iran announce withdrawal from mou negotiations by july 31 20260622191733846 586 829 787	Yes	BUY	2	8¢	$0	0xdce243…
07-21 22:45:55	will iran announce withdrawal from mou negotiations by july 31 20260622191733846 586 829 787	Yes	BUY	2,222	9¢	$200	0xa6fc53…
07-21 22:40:03	iran leadership change by july 31 20260629143932628	Yes	BUY	1,064	5¢	$50	0xe5cbb1…
07-21 22:39:54	iran leadership change by july 31 20260629143932628	Yes	BUY	2,129	5¢	$100	0x077595…
07-21 22:39:34	israel closes its airspace by july 24	Yes	BUY	200	10¢	$20	0x958be8…
07-21 22:39:18	israel x iran ceasefire continues through july 22 20260716224448966	No	BUY	1,250	8¢	$100	0x4f2ce4…
07-21 22:38:58	israel closes its airspace by july 24	Yes	BUY	1,000	10¢	$100	0xb036cb…
07-21 22:38:54	israel closes its airspace by july 24	Yes	BUY	5,412	9¢	$500	0x8e7242…
07-21 22:22:25	will iran announce withdrawal from mou negotiations by july 31 20260622191733846 586 829 787	Yes	BUY	618	8¢	$49	0xfc39b0…
07-21 21:33:15	will iran announce withdrawal from mou negotiations by july 31 20260622191733846 586 829 787	Yes	BUY	35	8¢	$3	0x756942…
07-21 21:09:18	will iran announce withdrawal from mou negotiations by july 31 20260622191733846 586 829 787	Yes	BUY	2	8¢	$0	0x02130d…
07-21 20:35:01	will iran announce withdrawal from mou negotiations by july 31 20260622191733846 586 829 787	Yes	BUY	38	8¢	$3	0xd4bee9…
07-21 20:33:52	will iran announce withdrawal from mou negotiations by july 31 20260622191733846 586 829 787	Yes	BUY	15	8¢	$1	0x3547c7…
07-21 19:49:07	will iran announce withdrawal from mou negotiations by july 31 20260622191733846 586 829 787	Yes	BUY	59	8¢	$5	0x09b510…
07-21 19:17:37	will iran announce withdrawal from mou negotiations by july 31 20260622191733846 586 829 787	Yes	BUY	1,898	8¢	$152	0xd819e0…
07-21 19:17:06	will iran announce withdrawal from mou negotiations by july 31 20260622191733846 586 829 787	Yes	BUY	1,848	8¢	$148	0xb0b494…
07-21 19:13:01	will iran announce withdrawal from mou negotiations by july 31 20260622191733846 586 829 787	Yes	BUY	2	8¢	$0	0x686ac9…
07-21 19:05:36	will iran announce withdrawal from mou negotiations by july 31 20260622191733846 586 829 787	Yes	BUY	5	8¢	$0	0xc4f996…
07-21 18:30:19	will iran announce withdrawal from mou negotiations by july 31 20260622191733846 586 829 787	Yes	BUY	51	8¢	$4	0xcf544e…
07-21 18:22:33	will iran announce withdrawal from mou negotiations by july 31 20260622191733846 586 829 787	Yes	BUY	70	8¢	$6	0xc79cf4…
07-21 18:20:06	will iran announce withdrawal from mou negotiations by july 31 20260622191733846 586 829 787	Yes	BUY	23	8¢	$2	0xc2fd5a…
07-21 17:34:55	will iran announce withdrawal from mou negotiations by july 31 20260622191733846 586 829 787	Yes	BUY	6,250	8¢	$500	0xc5def1…
07-21 15:58:54	will the us announce withdrawal from mou negotiations by july 31 20260622192122521 644 479	Yes	SELL	1,467	8¢	$117	0xeccd90…
07-21 15:44:42	will iran announce withdrawal from mou negotiations by july 31 20260622191733846 586 829 787	Yes	BUY	1,111	9¢	$100	0xb47996…
07-21 15:24:42	israel x iran ceasefire continues through july 25 20260716224448967	No	BUY	1,000	15¢	$150	0xa9890c…
07-21 15:23:22	will iran announce withdrawal from mou negotiations by july 31 20260622191733846 586 829 787	Yes	BUY	808	7¢	$58	0x2fd1f2…
07-21 15:21:43	Israel and Saudi Arabia normalize relations before 2027?	Yes	BUY	1,220	8¢	$100	0xa82d0b…
07-21 14:59:33	israel x iran ceasefire continues through july 22 20260716224448966	No	SELL	5,029	4¢	$222	0x5814ec…
07-21 14:58:28	iran leadership change by july 31 20260629143932628	Yes	BUY	268	4¢	$10	0xc6016a…
07-21 14:33:48	israel x iran ceasefire continues through july 22 20260716224448966	No	SELL	171	7¢	$12	0x423414…
07-21 14:18:34	israel x iran ceasefire continues through july 22 20260716224448966	No	SELL	178	7¢	$12	0xf8284c…
07-21 14:18:06	israel x iran ceasefire continues through july 22 20260716224448966	No	SELL	4,343	7¢	$304	0x92e61e…
07-21 11:48:40	iran leadership change by july 31 20260629143932628	Yes	BUY	625	3¢	$20	0xf084c5…
07-21 11:45:10	israel closes its airspace by july 24	Yes	BUY	117	6¢	$7	0xaaf529…
07-21 11:43:16	will iran announce withdrawal from mou negotiations by july 31 20260622191733846 586 829 787	Yes	BUY	1,000	10¢	$100	0xdc5b2b…
07-21 11:17:51	israel x iran ceasefire continues through july 25 20260716224448967	No	BUY	917	12¢	$110	0x3e7f8f…
07-21 10:40:25	iran full airspace closure by july 21	Yes	SELL	10,504	1¢	$143	0x811f29…
07-20 17:59:16	will iran announce withdrawal from mou negotiations by july 31 20260622191733846 586 829 787	Yes	BUY	133	12¢	$16	0x19c026…
07-20 17:59:04	will the us announce withdrawal from mou negotiations by july 31 20260622192122521 644 479	Yes	SELL	200	8¢	$16	0x53417f…
07-20 17:55:24	will iran announce withdrawal from mou negotiations by july 31 20260622191733846 586 829 787	Yes	BUY	1,792	12¢	$215	0x16a7a9…
07-20 17:55:12	Israel and Saudi Arabia normalize relations before 2027?	Yes	SELL	4,300	5¢	$215	0x9a25b5…
07-20 17:54:28	will iran announce withdrawal from mou negotiations by july 31 20260622191733846 586 829 787	Yes	BUY	992	12¢	$119	0x487908…
07-20 17:51:31	israel closes its airspace by july 24	Yes	BUY	667	6¢	$40	0x2efd33…
07-20 17:43:10	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	Yes	SELL	10,138	2¢	$156	0xff8f74…
07-20 17:39:09	israel closes its airspace by july 31 287	Yes	BUY	1,176	17¢	$200	0x1edfd0…
07-20 17:36:10	iran full airspace closure by july 21	Yes	BUY	291	5¢	$15	0x04d027…
07-20 17:31:10	iran invades kuwait by july 31 20260720015031545	Yes	BUY	396	5¢	$20	0x33fc95…
07-20 17:31:07	iran invades kuwait by july 31 20260720015031545	Yes	BUY	425	5¢	$20	0x986d05…
07-20 17:28:00	israel closes its airspace by july 24	Yes	SELL	2,270	7¢	$159	0xdabc97…
07-20 17:18:09	israel closes its airspace by july 24	Yes	BUY	1,250	8¢	$100	0x5206a8…
07-20 17:06:22	israel closes its airspace by july 31 287	Yes	BUY	582	17¢	$99	0x60d64a…
07-20 17:05:00	iran full airspace closure by july 21	Yes	BUY	1,000	5¢	$50	0x0264bb…
07-20 17:03:04	israel closes its airspace by july 24	Yes	BUY	1,254	8¢	$100	0x1119a0…
07-20 17:01:37	israel x iran ceasefire continues through july 22 20260716224448966	No	BUY	103	10¢	$10	0xa53f2b…
07-20 17:01:19	israel closes its airspace by july 24	Yes	BUY	286	7¢	$20	0x414e91…
07-20 16:48:13	israel closes its airspace by july 24	Yes	BUY	1,238	8¢	$99	0x8f8454…
07-20 16:47:15	israel closes its airspace by july 24	Yes	BUY	3,034	8¢	$240	0x9473ee…
07-20 16:46:55	israel x iran ceasefire continues through july 22 20260716224448966	No	BUY	1,002	10¢	$100	0xf5d5c3…
07-20 16:25:06	israel x iran ceasefire continues through july 22 20260716224448966	No	BUY	124	8¢	$10	0xd230c6…
07-20 15:22:34	israel closes its airspace by july 31 287	Yes	BUY	1,017	15¢	$153	0xfdf65b…
07-20 13:43:34	israel closes its airspace by july 31 287	Yes	BUY	147	15¢	$22	0x08a924…
07-20 13:43:30	israel closes its airspace by july 31 287	Yes	BUY	36	15¢	$5	0xaa5135…