Grand-Beak — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$7.67K

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

58.8%

Resolved

Trades

5,205

lifetime

Volume

$779.8K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$150

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-03-04

last 08-08 16:53

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 5 days

Categories

Politics

55% 50% +$7,812

Other

41% 20% $-145

Sports

3% — —

Crypto

0% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

78 active days in 12wk • peak 207 trades/day

Open positions Resolved markets Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	174	$75.0K	281,176	288,739	-7,563	open	—	06-20 13:11
israel closes its airspace by june 15 687	251	$49.1K	104,715	91,763	+12,951	open	—	06-14 21:16
iran x israelus conflict ends by april 15 618 586 982	69	$41.7K	63,876	65,876	-2,000	open	—	04-13 17:49
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	164	$34.5K	288,515	282,077	+6,439	open	—	05-27 12:31
strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by august 31 20260702154212320	40	$30.8K	121,075	121,075	+0	open	—	08-08 16:53
iran x israelus conflict ends by april 7 346	72	$27.7K	52,833	52,833	+0	open	—	04-21 18:05
will israel launch a major ground offensive in lebanon by march 31	34	$19.4K	13,983	13,983	+0	open	—	03-14 21:01
usisrael strike on fordow nuclear facility by march 31 388	220	$19.0K	21,027	24,164	-3,137	open	—	03-25 18:02
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31?	134	$18.5K	97,293	97,963	-669	open	—	05-23 10:29
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30?	109	$14.3K	56,756	56,756	+0	open	—	03-24 18:49
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30?	93	$12.2K	200,437	171,141	+29,296	open	—	06-14 19:38
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?	36	$12.1K	24,593	24,593	+0	open	—	04-16 23:35
england mexico game rescheduled to different time 20260703205906835	22	$12.1K	9,283	9,283	+0	open	—	07-06 00:06
iran closes its airspace by june 15	25	$11.7K	19,026	19,026	-0	open	—	06-07 20:55
iran closes its airspace by june 8	25	$11.6K	14,468	14,468	+0	open	—	06-07 20:49
will the iranian regime fall by march 31	169	$11.3K	83,083	112,378	-29,295	open	—	03-17 22:00
Iran leadership change by May 31?	100	$10.1K	62,713	62,713	+0	open	—	05-30 17:34
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 30, 2026?	114	$9.3K	18,593	18,593	+0	open	—	04-25 14:39
strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by june 15	290	$8.6K	122,382	140,610	-18,228	open	—	06-17 23:33
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31?	75	$8.1K	96,694	105,029	-8,335	open	—	05-29 22:05
kharg island no longer under iranian control by july 31	67	$8.0K	172,354	172,354	+0	open	—	07-27 09:14
israel announces lebanon ceasefire extension by june 7	30	$7.9K	5,814	5,814	+0	open	—	06-04 10:11
will iran announce withdrawal from mou negotiations by july 31 20260622191733846 586 829 787	77	$7.6K	41,422	43,688	-2,266	open	—	07-26 08:35
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 22, 2026?	33	$7.6K	28,415	8,000	+20,415	open	—	04-21 13:56
us x iran ceasefire by april 15	25	$7.5K	8,203	8,203	+0	open	—	04-07 23:10
israel closes its airspace by july 24	60	$7.3K	46,684	31,947	+14,737	open	—	07-23 11:20
will ronaldo cry at the world cup 20260604013616610	43	$6.8K	8,967	8,967	+0	open	—	07-07 19:32
Internet Access restored in Iran by May 31, 2026?	14	$6.6K	6,595	6,595	+0	open	—	05-26 15:35
israel closes its airspace by july 31 287	44	$6.6K	26,708	26,708	+0	open	—	07-26 08:35
Israel closes its airspace by June 30?	19	$6.2K	24,675	10,828	+13,847	open	—	06-28 00:58

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
08-08 16:53:36	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by august 31 20260702154212320	Yes	SELL	13,325	9¢	$1,199	0x14c14d…
08-08 15:15:43	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by august 31 20260702154212320	Yes	BUY	13,325	9¢	$1,199	0x61d709…
08-08 10:26:30	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by august 31 20260702154212320	Yes	SELL	9,385	12¢	$1,126	0x9935d9…
08-07 15:05:31	iran leadership change by august 31 669 893	Yes	SELL	28,468	5¢	$1,417	0x9ed38c…
08-07 04:36:03	will iran announce withdrawal from mou negotiations by august 15 881 867	Yes	SELL	18	2¢	$0	0x1aa6db…
08-07 02:57:40	will iran announce withdrawal from mou negotiations by august 15 881 867	Yes	SELL	643	2¢	$15	0xba9c4b…
08-07 01:51:31	iran leadership change by august 31 669	Yes	SELL	7,010	3¢	$210	0xfe9286…
08-07 00:38:06	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by august 31 20260702154212320	Yes	BUY	1,692	13¢	$220	0x3d7260…
08-07 00:37:41	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by august 31 20260702154212320	Yes	BUY	7,692	13¢	$1,000	0x9cf55b…
08-06 22:46:20	will iran announce withdrawal from mou negotiations by august 15 881 867	Yes	SELL	708	2¢	$17	0x56405a…
08-06 22:04:50	will iran announce withdrawal from mou negotiations by august 15 881 867	Yes	SELL	208	2¢	$5	0x3f4f97…
08-06 20:41:35	will iran announce withdrawal from mou negotiations by august 15 881 867	Yes	SELL	83	2¢	$2	0x48feda…
08-06 20:38:59	will iran announce withdrawal from mou negotiations by august 15 881 867	Yes	SELL	42	2¢	$1	0x407c56…
08-06 18:37:03	will iran announce withdrawal from mou negotiations by august 15 881 867	Yes	SELL	200	2¢	$5	0x6d0d3d…
08-06 18:37:00	will iran announce withdrawal from mou negotiations by august 15 881 867	Yes	SELL	140	2¢	$3	0x6fbeea…
08-06 18:34:33	iran leadership change by august 31 669	Yes	SELL	448	3¢	$13	0x65ade4…
08-06 18:21:26	will iran announce withdrawal from mou negotiations by august 15 881 867	Yes	SELL	1,052	2¢	$25	0xc6dc42…
08-06 18:05:56	will iran announce withdrawal from mou negotiations by august 15 881 867	Yes	SELL	1	2¢	$0	0x567218…
08-06 17:59:17	will iran announce withdrawal from mou negotiations by august 15 881 867	Yes	SELL	1	2¢	$0	0xdfea23…
08-06 17:43:45	will iran announce withdrawal from mou negotiations by august 15 881 867	Yes	SELL	125	2¢	$3	0x09b07c…
08-06 16:57:48	iran leadership change by august 31 669	Yes	SELL	2,032	3¢	$61	0x897dc8…
08-06 16:55:59	will iran announce withdrawal from mou negotiations by august 15 881 867	Yes	SELL	1	2¢	$0	0xdbd0c6…
08-06 16:53:26	will iran announce withdrawal from mou negotiations by august 15 881 867	Yes	SELL	1	2¢	$0	0x705f76…
08-06 16:52:03	will iran announce withdrawal from mou negotiations by august 15 881 867	Yes	SELL	357	2¢	$9	0x42bc60…
08-06 16:36:57	will iran announce withdrawal from mou negotiations by august 15 881 867	Yes	SELL	1	2¢	$0	0x5905d4…
08-06 16:20:41	will iran announce withdrawal from mou negotiations by august 15 881 867	Yes	SELL	1,000	2¢	$24	0x120ee5…
08-06 16:19:29	will iran announce withdrawal from mou negotiations by august 15 881 867	Yes	SELL	1	2¢	$0	0x3c6a04…
08-06 11:48:35	iran leadership change by august 31 669	Yes	SELL	4,600	3¢	$138	0x7a3403…
08-06 08:06:15	will iran announce withdrawal from mou negotiations by august 15 881 867	Yes	SELL	537	3¢	$15	0x22e0f7…
08-05 20:35:06	israel x iran ceasefire continues through august 15 20260716224448969 246 815 987 693	No	SELL	3,909	12¢	$475	0x03d3ac…
08-05 16:30:23	israel closes its airspace by august 15	Yes	SELL	2,857	4¢	$106	0xfbf675…
08-05 16:30:23	israel closes its airspace by august 31 389	Yes	SELL	3,060	9¢	$260	0x2323e0…
08-05 14:34:41	israel x iran ceasefire continues through august 9 20260727170733638	No	SELL	833	5¢	$42	0x7b17dd…
08-05 13:09:51	israel x iran ceasefire continues through august 15 20260716224448969 246 815 987 693	No	BUY	227	11¢	$25	0x202092…
08-05 12:42:45	israel x iran ceasefire continues through august 15 20260716224448969 246 815 987 693	No	BUY	364	11¢	$40	0x28771d…
08-05 12:42:36	israel x iran ceasefire continues through august 15 20260716224448969 246 815 987 693	No	BUY	591	11¢	$65	0xb49b9f…
08-05 12:41:53	israel closes its airspace by august 15	Yes	BUY	2,857	7¢	$200	0xbe97bb…
08-05 12:41:48	israel closes its airspace by august 31 389	Yes	BUY	1,667	12¢	$200	0x9f8d1f…
08-05 12:41:38	will iran announce withdrawal from mou negotiations by august 15 881 867	Yes	BUY	359	3¢	$10	0x724b5e…
08-05 12:41:17	israel x iran ceasefire continues through august 9 20260727170733638	No	BUY	833	6¢	$50	0x5f9a58…
08-05 12:41:08	israel x iran ceasefire continues through august 15 20260716224448969 246 815 987 693	No	BUY	2,727	11¢	$300	0x207dca…
08-05 12:40:57	israel closes its airspace by august 31 389	Yes	BUY	857	12¢	$100	0x533b58…
08-05 12:40:53	israel closes its airspace by august 31 389	Yes	BUY	537	11¢	$60	0x51a02f…
08-04 08:23:02	iran leadership change by august 31 669	Yes	BUY	9,942	2¢	$179	0x81b521…
08-04 08:15:59	iran leadership change by august 31 669	Yes	BUY	58	2¢	$1	0x5f11ff…
08-04 00:12:44	will iran announce withdrawal from mou negotiations by august 15 881 867	Yes	BUY	208	2¢	$5	0xbaad40…
08-03 18:27:59	will iran announce withdrawal from mou negotiations by august 15 881 867	Yes	BUY	1,667	3¢	$45	0x5f3dbf…
08-03 18:27:30	will iran announce withdrawal from mou negotiations by august 15 881 867	Yes	BUY	2,680	2¢	$67	0x889b27…
08-03 18:23:03	iran leadership change by august 31 669	Yes	BUY	1,102	3¢	$30	0xcc8e69…
08-02 19:08:15	iran leadership change by august 31 669	Yes	SELL	10,000	2¢	$230	0x3ea261…
08-02 14:44:24	will iran announce withdrawal from mou negotiations by august 15 881 867	Yes	BUY	2,168	2¢	$50	0x7edb76…
08-02 11:56:23	will iran announce withdrawal from mou negotiations by august 15 881 867	Yes	SELL	6,000	2¢	$108	0xcd61bf…
08-02 10:37:18	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by august 31 20260702154212320	Yes	SELL	7,567	11¢	$832	0x58b86c…
08-02 10:29:39	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by august 31 20260702154212320	Yes	SELL	2	11¢	$0	0x4ffb00…
08-02 10:18:50	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by august 31 20260702154212320	Yes	SELL	67	11¢	$7	0x59ad86…
08-02 10:12:47	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by august 15 20260727171036148	Yes	SELL	2,222	3¢	$58	0x971ee2…
08-02 10:09:39	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by august 31 20260702154212320	Yes	SELL	6,000	11¢	$660	0x6f2178…
08-02 10:08:53	will iran announce withdrawal from mou negotiations by august 15 881 867	Yes	SELL	2,000	2¢	$40	0x389a34…
08-02 10:05:15	iran leadership change by august 31 669	Yes	SELL	3,000	2¢	$67	0x6c63c9…
08-02 09:16:18	will iran announce withdrawal from mou negotiations by august 15 881 867	Yes	SELL	16,000	2¢	$319	0xd83a6d…
08-02 03:32:38	israel closes its airspace by august 15	Yes	SELL	2,600	5¢	$140	0xaa4fb0…
08-02 03:30:53	israel closes its airspace by august 15	Yes	SELL	2,062	6¢	$124	0x72827d…
08-02 03:28:29	will iran announce withdrawal from mou negotiations by august 15 881 867	Yes	SELL	3,000	3¢	$90	0xe2de31…
08-02 03:28:00	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by august 31 20260702154212320	Yes	BUY	909	11¢	$100	0xcb7f75…
08-02 03:27:39	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by august 31 20260702154212320	Yes	BUY	909	11¢	$100	0xcf62f1…
08-02 03:27:35	israel closes its airspace by august 15	Yes	SELL	4	8¢	$0	0x97f293…
08-02 03:27:35	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by august 31 20260702154212320	Yes	BUY	909	11¢	$100	0x19365b…
08-02 03:27:30	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by august 31 20260702154212320	Yes	BUY	10,909	11¢	$1,200	0xc70c2c…
08-02 03:26:41	israel closes its airspace by august 15	Yes	SELL	125	8¢	$10	0x90b318…
08-02 03:26:29	israel closes its airspace by august 15	Yes	SELL	4	8¢	$0	0xd6b564…
08-02 03:26:21	israel x iran ceasefire continues through august 3	No	SELL	2,440	4¢	$100	0x38d438…
08-02 03:25:35	israel closes its airspace by august 15	Yes	SELL	85	8¢	$7	0xa526e1…
08-02 03:23:38	iran leadership change by september 30 20260629144005163 739	Yes	SELL	8,300	7¢	$581	0xfd885c…
08-02 03:14:05	iran leadership change by august 31 669	Yes	BUY	2,040	4¢	$71	0x4725fb…
08-02 03:13:59	iran leadership change by august 31 669	Yes	BUY	7,420	4¢	$260	0xeda73e…
08-02 03:12:05	iran leadership change by august 31 669	Yes	BUY	5,066	4¢	$182	0x2262c5…
08-02 02:49:39	iran leadership change by august 31 669	Yes	BUY	500	4¢	$21	0x78aa99…
08-02 02:31:29	iran leadership change by august 31 669	Yes	BUY	50	4¢	$2	0x03e997…
08-02 02:27:39	iran leadership change by august 31 669	Yes	BUY	753	4¢	$32	0xf71e38…
08-02 02:12:36	will iran announce withdrawal from mou negotiations by august 15 881 867	Yes	BUY	129	8¢	$10	0x790b3e…
08-02 01:49:11	israel military action against yemen by august 31	Yes	BUY	17	11¢	$2	0xb6b98b…
08-02 00:57:35	will iran announce withdrawal from mou negotiations by august 15 881 867	Yes	BUY	111	8¢	$9	0x109f5d…
08-02 00:35:51	iran leadership change by august 31 669	Yes	BUY	35	4¢	$1	0x48adb7…
08-02 00:26:51	will iran announce withdrawal from mou negotiations by august 15 881 867	Yes	BUY	1,805	8¢	$144	0x55ffa5…
08-02 00:23:39	iran leadership change by august 31 669	Yes	BUY	18	4¢	$1	0xb51593…
08-02 00:23:23	iran leadership change by august 31 669	Yes	BUY	31	4¢	$1	0x3de1ab…
08-02 00:21:45	iran leadership change by august 31 669	Yes	BUY	5	4¢	$0	0x612f67…
08-02 00:15:54	will iran announce withdrawal from mou negotiations by august 15 881 867	Yes	BUY	1	8¢	$0	0x1ab589…
08-02 00:08:12	israel x iran ceasefire continues through august 3	No	BUY	1,800	22¢	$396	0x99cd40…
08-02 00:05:12	israel x iran ceasefire continues through august 3	No	BUY	64	22¢	$14	0xc5feef…
08-02 00:04:45	will iran announce withdrawal from mou negotiations by august 15 881 867	Yes	BUY	1,953	8¢	$156	0xa7bfc3…
08-02 00:04:42	israel x iran ceasefire continues through august 3	No	BUY	33	22¢	$7	0xe4d035…
08-02 00:04:42	israel x iran ceasefire continues through august 3	No	BUY	2	22¢	$0	0x067323…
08-02 00:04:41	israel x iran ceasefire continues through august 3	No	BUY	13	22¢	$3	0xda73d1…
08-02 00:04:41	israel x iran ceasefire continues through august 3	No	BUY	2	22¢	$0	0x257793…
08-02 00:04:41	israel x iran ceasefire continues through august 3	No	BUY	3	22¢	$1	0x0e4585…
08-02 00:04:39	israel x iran ceasefire continues through august 3	No	BUY	3	22¢	$1	0x344bb9…
08-02 00:04:32	israel x iran ceasefire continues through august 3	No	BUY	0	22¢	$0	0x93e9b7…
08-02 00:04:30	israel x iran ceasefire continues through august 3	No	BUY	521	22¢	$115	0x6c7fc2…
08-01 23:57:44	iran leadership change by september 30 20260629144005163 739	Yes	BUY	16	9¢	$1	0x909465…