Thorny-Cashew — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$461

Unrealized P&L

-$20

Hit rate

43.3%

Resolved

Trades

1,654

lifetime

Volume

$148.1K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$90

Open exposure

$240

4 positions

First seen

2026-01-06

last 06-18 00:54

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 13 days

Categories

Politics

65% — —

Other

27% 75% +$147

Sports

8% 56% $-608

Crypto

0% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

39 active days in 12wk • peak 96 trades/day

Open positions (4) Resolved markets (1) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will Spain reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final?	No	+179	$128	78¢	$141	+$12	06-11 19:31
Will France reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final?	No	+120	$89	43¢	$52	$-38	06-14 01:22
Will Brazil reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final?	Yes	+140	$28	18¢	$26	$-2	06-11 18:45
Will Colombia reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final?	Yes	+214	$14	10¢	$22	+$8	06-11 18:45

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by June 30?	175	$20.5K	39,580	39,534	+46	open	—	04-09 01:58
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by May 15?	82	$15.6K	14,408	14,408	+0	open	—	04-08 16:38
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 30?	93	$11.6K	12,937	12,937	+0	open	—	04-08 19:45
US forces enter Iran by December 31?	24	$6.0K	3,878	3,878	+0	open	—	04-05 18:54
Will the Kharg Island oil terminal be hit by April 30?	44	$5.8K	4,067	4,088	-21	open	—	04-09 05:04
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31?	24	$5.1K	3,776	3,776	+0	open	—	04-08 16:02
us escorts commercial ship through hormuz by april 30 894	20	$4.9K	3,536	2,375	+1,161	open	—	04-29 22:25
iran x israelus conflict ends by april 15 618 586 982	51	$4.6K	11,230	11,275	-45	open	—	04-19 14:47
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by December 31?	99	$4.3K	19,932	18,457	+1,475	open	—	04-09 14:24
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 30?	19	$4.3K	2,517	2,517	+0	open	—	04-08 15:56
mike johnson out as speaker by march 31	22	$4.2K	2,718	1,704	+1,014	open	—	03-31 22:06
us x iran ceasefire by april 30	15	$3.7K	3,274	2,437	+837	open	—	04-08 00:12
US forces enter Iran by April 30?	14	$3.4K	2,750	2,750	+0	open	—	04-05 18:54
will the us not strike iran by january 31 2026 314	42	$3.1K	2,404	2,404	+0	open	—	02-01 04:53
iran x israelus conflict ends by march 15	28	$2.7K	2,224	2,071	+153	open	—	03-16 19:28
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31?	35	$2.5K	9,149	9,149	+0	open	—	04-08 15:49
iran x israelus conflict ends by march 31	25	$2.2K	2,060	1,796	+264	open	—	03-19 01:21
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in April?	21	$2.1K	4,333	169	+4,164	open	—	04-17 17:00
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $75 in April?	20	$1.9K	2,532	211	+2,322	open	—	04-19 00:42
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?	10	$1.8K	1,200	1,200	+0	open	—	04-08 16:08
will the us next strike iran on february 28 2026 et	14	$1.8K	1,767	1,767	+0	open	—	03-04 17:27
US strikes Iran by March 31, 2026?	12	$1.7K	1,921	1,921	+0	open	—	02-26 17:13
iran x israelus conflict ends by march 7	8	$1.7K	979	979	+0	open	—	03-02 15:31
Will Ken Paxton win the 2026 Texas Republican Primary?	14	$1.5K	47	2,020	-1,974	open	—	03-04 17:25
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $60 by end of June?	5	$1.4K	0	1,430	-1,430	open	—	06-12 00:55
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $70 in April?	10	$1.4K	1,507	0	+1,507	open	—	04-18 03:09
US x Iran ceasefire by May 31?	3	$1.3K	1,000	1,000	+0	open	—	04-08 00:13
us strikes iran by january 15 2026 652 612	6	$1.1K	783	783	+0	open	—	01-15 12:13
Spread: New York Yankees (-1.5)	1	$1.1K	2,070	0	+2,070	New York Yankees	$-1,056	05-04 22:24
Supreme Court rules in favor of Trump's tariffs?	14	$1.0K	1,421	0	+1,421	open	—	01-25 21:18

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
06-18 00:54:11	will colombia reach the round of 16 at the 2026 fifa world cup 20260602025120776	Yes	SELL	22	55¢	$12	0xe9a003…
06-17 10:06:49	will colombia reach the round of 16 at the 2026 fifa world cup 20260602025120776	Yes	SELL	3	55¢	$2	0x89e6c8…
06-17 09:54:50	will colombia reach the round of 16 at the 2026 fifa world cup 20260602025120776	Yes	SELL	3	55¢	$2	0x3cfd43…
06-17 08:29:49	will colombia reach the round of 16 at the 2026 fifa world cup 20260602025120776	Yes	SELL	3	55¢	$2	0x19055a…
06-15 05:08:48	fifwc esp cvi 2026 06 15 spread home 2pt5	Spain	BUY	50	55¢	$28	0x99b06a…
06-15 03:21:25	Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $70 by end of June?	No	SELL	316	88¢	$278	0x575b03…
06-15 03:21:21	Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $70 by end of June?	No	SELL	36	88¢	$32	0x75866d…
06-15 03:21:13	Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $70 by end of June?	No	SELL	24	89¢	$21	0x692ee3…
06-15 03:21:12	Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $70 by end of June?	No	SELL	26	89¢	$23	0x0ec8cc…
06-15 03:21:06	Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $70 by end of June?	No	SELL	20	89¢	$18	0xe926d6…
06-15 01:43:19	will australia reach the round of 16 at the 2026 fifa world cup 20260602025120748	No	SELL	36	64¢	$23	0x6354cf…
06-15 00:48:49	will dr congo reach the quarterfinals at the 2026 fifa world cup 20260602145134510	Yes	SELL	70	4¢	$3	0x0fc459…
06-15 00:48:24	will ivory coast reach the quarterfinals at the 2026 fifa world cup 20260602145134485	Yes	SELL	32	10¢	$3	0xd15f7e…
06-15 00:48:06	will ghana reach the quarterfinals at the 2026 fifa world cup 20260602145134514	Yes	SELL	60	6¢	$4	0x37d21e…
06-15 00:47:48	will ghana reach the quarterfinals at the 2026 fifa world cup 20260602145134514	Yes	SELL	60	6¢	$4	0x2bebc9…
06-15 00:46:28	will ivory coast reach the quarterfinals at the 2026 fifa world cup 20260602145134485	Yes	SELL	76	10¢	$8	0xe332a2…
06-15 00:46:09	will ivory coast reach the quarterfinals at the 2026 fifa world cup 20260602145134485	Yes	SELL	16	11¢	$2	0xd7cb17…
06-15 00:30:39	will norway reach the semifinals at the 2026 fifa world cup 20260602145149743	No	SELL	20	85¢	$17	0xf2ba7f…
06-14 17:36:16	Will Germany advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	No	BUY	100	3¢	$3	0x91ae9a…
06-14 17:36:10	Will Germany advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	No	BUY	40	3¢	$1	0xfb1d3f…
06-14 14:52:13	will australia reach the round of 16 at the 2026 fifa world cup 20260602025120748	No	BUY	69	66¢	$46	0xac1fc5…
06-14 03:38:43	will france reach the semifinals at the 2026 fifa world cup 20260602145149741	No	SELL	25	62¢	$16	0x32211c…
06-14 03:05:54	will usa reach the round of 16 at the 2026 fifa world cup 20260602025120747	No	SELL	48	32¢	$15	0xcaa27a…
06-14 02:43:43	Will Iran advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	SELL	30	62¢	$19	0xbb0c9c…
06-14 02:24:48	will norway reach the semifinals at the 2026 fifa world cup 20260602145149743	No	BUY	25	87¢	$22	0x6034bc…
06-14 02:23:24	will croatia reach the semifinals at the 2026 fifa world cup 20260602145149754	No	BUY	20	92¢	$18	0x24e3d0…
06-14 02:22:58	will netherlands reach the semifinals at the 2026 fifa world cup 20260602145149729	Yes	BUY	42	22¢	$9	0x2b0b1b…
06-14 02:15:46	will argentina reach the semifinals at the 2026 fifa world cup 20260602145149745	Yes	BUY	25	34¢	$8	0xdaf829…
06-14 02:15:19	will turkiye reach the semifinals at the 2026 fifa world cup 20260602145149724	No	BUY	40	91¢	$36	0xaecea6…
06-14 01:22:36	Will France reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final?	No	SELL	60	74¢	$44	0xeb3eb1…
06-12 23:04:39	mlb hou kc 2026 06 12	Kansas City Royals	BUY	50	49¢	$24	0xf80035…
06-12 23:04:04	mlb ari cin 2026 06 12	Cincinnati Reds	BUY	50	51¢	$26	0x64ce81…
06-12 09:57:45	will uruguay reach the quarterfinals at the 2026 fifa world cup 20260602145134496	Yes	BUY	47	22¢	$10	0x111b80…
06-12 09:35:58	will crude oil cl hit high 95 by end of june	Yes	BUY	300	27¢	$81	0x8eb559…
06-12 09:18:37	will crude oil cl hit high 100 by end of june	Yes	BUY	100	14¢	$14	0x720539…
06-12 04:42:51	will ivory coast reach the quarterfinals at the 2026 fifa world cup 20260602145134485	Yes	BUY	61	13¢	$8	0x4e1848…
06-12 03:11:04	will ivory coast reach the quarterfinals at the 2026 fifa world cup 20260602145134485	Yes	BUY	30	13¢	$4	0xa1a30a…
06-12 02:44:49	will croatia reach the round of 16 at the 2026 fifa world cup 20260602025120780	No	BUY	9	59¢	$5	0x646af2…
06-12 02:01:31	Will Switzerland advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	No	BUY	42	6¢	$3	0x74e922…
06-12 01:58:19	will australia reach the round of 16 at the 2026 fifa world cup 20260602025120748	No	BUY	12	82¢	$10	0xa133c4…
06-12 01:18:03	will paraguay reach the round of 16 at the 2026 fifa world cup 20260602025120749	No	BUY	5	71¢	$3	0x838489…
06-12 00:55:37	Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $60 by end of June?	No	SELL	200	98¢	$196	0x40361b…
06-12 00:55:28	Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $60 by end of June?	No	SELL	140	98¢	$137	0xebb57c…
06-12 00:54:07	Will Iran advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	BUY	100	63¢	$63	0x963aad…
06-12 00:41:27	Will New Zealand advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	BUY	100	33¢	$33	0xf202af…
06-12 00:36:57	Will Iran advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	BUY	30	63¢	$19	0xd82d7d…
06-12 00:36:52	Will Iran advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	BUY	25	63¢	$16	0xedbc6d…
06-12 00:17:42	will usa reach the round of 16 at the 2026 fifa world cup 20260602025120747	Yes	BUY	4	50¢	$2	0x5c9c89…
06-11 23:39:54	Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $85 by end of June?	No	BUY	100	15¢	$15	0xcc7b44…
06-11 23:35:00	Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $85 by end of June?	No	BUY	177	15¢	$27	0xb07799…
06-11 23:34:48	Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $85 by end of June?	Yes	SELL	46	85¢	$39	0x583b4a…
06-11 23:34:46	will usa reach the round of 16 at the 2026 fifa world cup 20260602025120747	Yes	BUY	54	50¢	$27	0x7742ed…
06-11 22:53:51	will paraguay reach the round of 16 at the 2026 fifa world cup 20260602025120749	No	BUY	17	71¢	$12	0x565eca…
06-11 22:45:40	mlb sea bal 2026 06 11	Baltimore Orioles	BUY	70	50¢	$35	0x394c3b…
06-11 22:08:57	will croatia reach the round of 16 at the 2026 fifa world cup 20260602025120780	No	BUY	2	59¢	$1	0xf6ff4d…
06-11 21:58:33	will croatia reach the round of 16 at the 2026 fifa world cup 20260602025120780	No	BUY	12	59¢	$7	0xcae1b2…
06-11 21:49:54	will croatia reach the round of 16 at the 2026 fifa world cup 20260602025120780	No	BUY	5	59¢	$3	0x8517b8…
06-11 20:47:55	Will Ivory Coast advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	BUY	16	78¢	$12	0x5933c5…
06-11 20:33:31	Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $85 by end of June?	Yes	BUY	5	84¢	$4	0x582463…
06-11 20:33:27	Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $85 by end of June?	Yes	BUY	41	85¢	$34	0x60a81f…
06-11 20:27:28	Will Colombia advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	BUY	90	91¢	$82	0x4eda5d…
06-11 20:17:00	will croatia reach the round of 16 at the 2026 fifa world cup 20260602025120780	No	BUY	22	59¢	$13	0xc5f7a6…
06-11 19:57:25	Will Ivory Coast advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	BUY	5	78¢	$4	0x52d48e…
06-11 19:31:18	Will France reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final?	No	BUY	61	74¢	$45	0xc0f1a3…
06-11 19:31:13	Will Spain reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final?	No	BUY	27	69¢	$18	0x49a09a…
06-11 19:29:40	Will France reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final?	No	BUY	38	74¢	$28	0x6d9a25…
06-11 19:29:30	Will Spain reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final?	No	BUY	32	69¢	$22	0x9b65eb…
06-11 19:27:28	will australia reach the round of 16 at the 2026 fifa world cup 20260602025120748	No	BUY	15	83¢	$12	0x5fa208…
06-11 19:25:40	will ghana reach the round of 16 at the 2026 fifa world cup 20260602025120782	No	BUY	50	86¢	$43	0x51fa93…
06-11 19:25:15	will paraguay reach the round of 16 at the 2026 fifa world cup 20260602025120749	No	BUY	32	73¢	$23	0x58fc56…
06-11 19:23:21	will czechia reach the round of 16 at the 2026 fifa world cup 20260602025120738	No	BUY	34	72¢	$25	0xb03fe7…
06-11 19:22:57	will switzerland reach the round of 16 at the 2026 fifa world cup 20260602025120740	No	BUY	10	43¢	$4	0x23ee0d…
06-11 19:20:18	Will Ghana advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	No	BUY	15	54¢	$8	0x9f11d1…
06-11 19:19:33	Will Czechia advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	No	BUY	30	31¢	$9	0xafe404…
06-11 19:19:12	will ivory coast reach the quarterfinals at the 2026 fifa world cup 20260602145134485	Yes	BUY	30	13¢	$4	0xf98a77…
06-11 19:19:01	will ivory coast reach the quarterfinals at the 2026 fifa world cup 20260602145134485	Yes	BUY	100	13¢	$13	0x22159c…
06-11 19:14:46	will spain reach the semifinals at the 2026 fifa world cup 20260602145149737	No	BUY	50	54¢	$27	0x88d2ce…
06-11 19:09:21	will usa reach the round of 16 at the 2026 fifa world cup 20260602025120747	Yes	BUY	12	50¢	$6	0x8c4969…
06-11 19:04:49	will brazil reach the quarterfinals at the 2026 fifa world cup 20260602145134475	Yes	BUY	120	52¢	$62	0xc3a486…
06-11 19:04:15	will brazil reach the quarterfinals at the 2026 fifa world cup 20260602145134475	No	SELL	107	48¢	$52	0xda18d5…
06-11 19:04:06	will brazil reach the quarterfinals at the 2026 fifa world cup 20260602145134475	No	SELL	58	49¢	$28	0x739641…
06-11 19:00:51	Will Germany advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	No	BUY	42	4¢	$2	0xf6cca1…
06-11 19:00:25	Will Uruguay advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	BUY	25	90¢	$22	0x0552b4…
06-11 19:00:01	Will Colombia advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	BUY	5	91¢	$5	0xe7d238…
06-11 18:59:33	Will Senegal advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	BUY	40	72¢	$29	0x9baf06…
06-11 18:59:16	Will Norway advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	BUY	15	86¢	$13	0x458763…
06-11 18:57:51	Will Ivory Coast advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	BUY	19	79¢	$15	0x2fb166…
06-11 18:56:34	will usa reach the round of 16 at the 2026 fifa world cup 20260602025120747	No	BUY	50	51¢	$26	0x54f453…
06-11 18:55:49	will australia reach the round of 16 at the 2026 fifa world cup 20260602025120748	No	BUY	100	83¢	$83	0x4ccf9d…
06-11 18:55:12	will germany reach the round of 16 at the 2026 fifa world cup 20260602025120751	No	BUY	59	31¢	$18	0xedca89…
06-11 18:53:15	will dr congo reach the quarterfinals at the 2026 fifa world cup 20260602145134510	Yes	BUY	150	6¢	$9	0xdbe43f…
06-11 18:53:01	will dr congo reach the quarterfinals at the 2026 fifa world cup 20260602145134510	Yes	BUY	50	7¢	$3	0xdd04f9…
06-11 18:50:57	Will Germany reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final?	No	SELL	22	87¢	$20	0xfc2402…
06-11 18:50:27	Will Germany reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final?	No	BUY	90	88¢	$79	0x27f049…
06-11 18:48:36	will germany reach the semifinals at the 2026 fifa world cup 20260602145149725	No	BUY	100	78¢	$78	0xcf2aab…
06-11 18:46:03	will switzerland reach the round of 16 at the 2026 fifa world cup 20260602025120740	No	BUY	2	43¢	$1	0x414a7e…
06-11 18:45:55	Will Colombia reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final?	Yes	BUY	214	7¢	$14	0xcdd17a…
06-11 18:45:13	Will Brazil reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final?	Yes	BUY	140	20¢	$28	0x128931…
06-11 18:44:45	Will France reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final?	No	BUY	60	75¢	$45	0x58ef11…
06-11 18:44:37	Will France reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final?	No	BUY	20	74¢	$15	0xbd3d6e…