Fluid-Churn — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$181

Unrealized P&L

+$23

Hit rate

60.3%

Resolved

461

Trades

949

lifetime

Volume

$14.9K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$16

Open exposure

$204

2 positions

First seen

2026-01-02

last 10-27 04:08

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 107 days

Categories

Other

50% 67% -$571

Sports

22% 52% +$434

Politics

15% 53% -$92

Crypto

11% 78% +$74

Tech

3% 14% -$26

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

9 active days in 12wk • peak 19 trades/day

Open positions (2) Resolved markets (28) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Variational FDV above $500M one day after launch?	Yes		+229	$180	88¢	$203	+$23	10-11 07:52
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	Yes		-10	-$2	17¢	$-2	+$0	06-30 10:04

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Will Troy Jackson be the Maine Senate Democratic nominee on July 27?	20	$1.0K	727	727	+0	Yes	-$111	07-07 17:24
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	2	$661	600	600	+0	Yes	+$457	07-19 21:43
Variational FDV above $500M one day after launch?	4	$592	458	229	+229	open	—	10-11 07:52
Will MrBeast's next video get between 30 and 35 million views on day 1?	24	$511	652	411	+241	No	-$126	02-08 00:20
FC Midtjylland vs. Viborg FF: O/U 2.5	3	$370	200	200	+0	Over	+$10	05-04 17:45
Clarity Act signed into law in 2026?	3	$345	516	516	+0	open	—	07-24 15:10
Will Pamela Evette win the first round of the 2026 South Carolina Governor Republican primary election?	1	$325	369	0	+369	Yes	+$44	06-09 19:56
wti up or down on june 30 2026	9	$308	570	568	+2	Down	-$22	06-30 13:29
will peoples party pple win the most seats in the 2026 thai legislative election	2	$296	200	200	+0	No	+$0	02-08 00:08
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on May 8?	4	$291	200	400	-200	Down	+$1	05-08 07:08
will the us next strike iran on january 25 2026 et 395	2	$198	100	100	+0	No	+$1	01-26 14:32
will nvidia be the largest company in the world by market cap on january 31 985	2	$198	100	100	+0	Yes	+$0	01-23 18:22
Will Zoominfo Technologies (GTM) beat quarterly earnings?	3	$198	200	0	+200	Yes	+$2	05-11 17:09
will the us next strike iran on january 23 2026 et 724	2	$196	100	100	+0	No	+$3	01-25 09:15
val nrg lev1 2026 06 08	5	$192	314	30	+284	Leviatán Esports	-$102	06-08 19:42
elon musk of tweets march 2026 0 19	3	$159	80	80	+0	No	+$0	01-26 19:55
fifwc cdr uzb 2026 06 27 total 1pt5	16	$141	1,132	1,132	+0	Over	+$41	06-27 23:54
Avalanche vs. Wild: O/U 5.5	1	$138	230	0	+230	Over	+$92	05-11 17:27
lol shg dfm 2026 07 30	5	$136	121	72	+49	DetonatioN FocusMe	+$13	07-30 10:34
Will Valve add Cache to the Map Pool by June 30, 2026?	6	$104	54	54	+0	No	+$4	06-25 08:39
jnj quarterly earnings nongaap eps 04 14 2026 2pt68	1	$103	110	0	+110	Yes	+$7	04-14 00:57
dis quarterly earnings nongaap eps 02 02 2026 1pt57	1	$102	110	0	+110	Yes	+$8	02-02 07:08
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-28?	1	$102	600	0	+600	No	-$102	06-28 20:07
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	1	$102	1,000	0	+1,000	No	-$102	05-28 20:09
Will AECOM (ACM) beat quarterly earnings?	1	$98	100	0	+100	Yes	+$2	05-11 16:34
spy up or down on june 10 2026	4	$98	138	138	+0	Down	-$4	06-10 11:51
amzn quarterly earnings gaap eps 02 05 2026 1pt95	1	$93	97	0	+97	No	-$93	02-05 15:01
Will ON Semiconductor (ON) beat quarterly earnings?	2	$92	100	0	+100	Yes	+$8	05-04 19:26
Will SpaceX IPO on June 12, 2026?	2	$90	50	50	+0	Yes	+$0	06-04 20:53
nba phi ind 2026 04 10	1	$89	100	0	+100	76ers	+$11	04-10 21:19

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
10-27 04:08:27	Will "I Play Rocky" score at least 80 on the Rotten Tomatoes Tomatometer?	Yes	SELL	4	43¢	$2	0xd56922…
10-27 04:03:21	Will "I Play Rocky" score at least 80 on the Rotten Tomatoes Tomatometer?	Yes	SELL	20	43¢	$9	0xe882d2…
10-27 03:47:44	Will "I Play Rocky" score at least 80 on the Rotten Tomatoes Tomatometer?	Yes	BUY	24	43¢	$10	0xdb32bd…
10-27 02:08:36	Will "I Play Rocky" score at least 80 on the Rotten Tomatoes Tomatometer?	No	SELL	1	47¢	$0	0x4a6a2d…
10-27 02:08:35	Will "I Play Rocky" score at least 80 on the Rotten Tomatoes Tomatometer?	No	SELL	20	47¢	$9	0x0eed91…
10-27 00:16:42	will i play rocky score at least 80 on the rotten tomatoes tomatometer 20261123	No	BUY	21	49¢	$10	0x1f5dec…
10-26 18:34:51	Will Anthropic be the #3 AI Lab at the end of October 2026 (Style Control On)?	No	SELL	20	72¢	$14	0xd3f4ac…
10-26 05:25:39	Will "La Nieve" from The Black Ball win Best Original Song at the 99th Academy Awards?	Yes	SELL	22	43¢	$9	0xecfa81…
10-26 05:25:35	Will "La Nieve" from The Black Ball win Best Original Song at the 99th Academy Awards?	Yes	BUY	22	43¢	$9	0xc4c0c4…
10-26 03:30:41	Will the Bank of Brazil decrease the target for the Selic rate by 25 bps at the December meeting?	Yes	SELL	20	48¢	$10	0x0a77e1…
10-26 03:30:39	Will the Bank of Brazil decrease the target for the Selic rate by 25 bps at the December meeting?	Yes	BUY	20	48¢	$10	0xab8ffd…
10-25 23:27:45	Will Anthropic be the #3 AI Lab at the end of October 2026 (Style Control On)?	No	BUY	20	76¢	$15	0xb01ccf…
10-25 18:29:45	Will NVIDIA be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on October 31, 2026?	No	SELL	8	72¢	$6	0x3f843b…
10-25 18:09:57	Will NVIDIA be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on October 31, 2026?	No	SELL	14	72¢	$10	0xc71de5…
10-25 17:56:11	Will NVIDIA be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on October 31, 2026?	No	BUY	22	76¢	$17	0x1de8df…
10-25 14:04:02	Will Logan Paul pull a Reverse Holographic Pikachu?	Yes	SELL	22	43¢	$9	0x1f0d28…
10-25 13:58:51	Will Logan Paul pull a Reverse Holographic Pikachu?	Yes	BUY	20	45¢	$9	0x8d273f…
10-25 13:58:51	Will Logan Paul pull a Reverse Holographic Pikachu?	Yes	BUY	2	45¢	$1	0x342249…
10-25 02:52:20	Will Kimi K3.1 Pro debut at a score of at least 1470 by June 30, 2027?	No	SELL	37	19¢	$7	0x9e250d…
10-24 19:32:50	Will Kimi K3.1 Pro debut at a score of at least 1470 by June 30, 2027?	No	BUY	37	19¢	$7	0xc572be…
10-24 09:43:56	Will OpenAI’s valuation be at least $1.30T at the end of November 2026?	No	SELL	0	37¢	$0	0x417926…
10-24 09:38:23	Will OpenAI’s valuation be at least $1.30T at the end of November 2026?	No	SELL	3	37¢	$1	0x2c7b20…
10-24 09:35:06	Will OpenAI’s valuation be at least $1.30T at the end of November 2026?	No	SELL	30	37¢	$11	0xc23559…
10-23 23:44:50	Will Anthropic have the best AI model on LiveBench (Overall) at the end of October 2026?	No	SELL	135	11¢	$15	0x32c583…
10-23 21:10:59	Will OpenAI’s valuation be at least $1.30T at the end of November 2026?	No	BUY	33	38¢	$13	0xd430b0…
10-23 17:39:30	Will Anthropic have the best AI model on LiveBench (Overall) at the end of October 2026?	No	BUY	35	11¢	$4	0xca8191…
10-23 17:39:30	Will Anthropic have the best AI model on LiveBench (Overall) at the end of October 2026?	No	BUY	100	11¢	$11	0x98a37f…
10-23 15:23:47	Will the Central Bank of Colombia make no change to the monetary policy interest rate at the October meeting?	No	SELL	24	41¢	$10	0xd81645…
10-23 14:38:30	Will OpenAI’s valuation be at least $1.30T at the end of November 2026?	Yes	SELL	2	53¢	$1	0xf16b2c…
10-23 14:36:38	Will OpenAI’s valuation be at least $1.30T at the end of November 2026?	Yes	SELL	20	53¢	$11	0xb810d2…
10-23 14:30:45	Will OpenAI’s valuation be at least $1.30T at the end of November 2026?	Yes	BUY	22	55¢	$12	0x82642d…
10-23 12:52:08	Will the Central Bank of Colombia make no change to the monetary policy interest rate at the October meeting?	No	BUY	4	43¢	$2	0x70232a…
10-23 12:52:06	Will the Central Bank of Colombia make no change to the monetary policy interest rate at the October meeting?	No	BUY	20	43¢	$9	0x0105b6…
10-23 11:54:48	Will Space Exploration Technologies’ market capitalization be between $1.75T and $2.00T at the end of October 2026?	No	BUY	0	55¢	$0	0x8dcc8b…
10-23 11:42:06	Will OpenAI’s valuation be at least $1.30T at the end of October 2026?	Yes	SELL	9	52¢	$5	0xd463f2…
10-23 11:35:53	Will OpenAI’s valuation be at least $1.30T at the end of October 2026?	Yes	BUY	9	53¢	$5	0x1840d8…
10-23 09:31:33	Will the 5-year Treasury yield dip below 4.55% before 2027?	No	SELL	31	46¢	$14	0xcc05ae…
10-23 09:25:09	Will the 5-year Treasury yield dip below 4.55% before 2027?	No	BUY	1	48¢	$0	0x2d0526…
10-23 09:25:06	Will the 5-year Treasury yield dip below 4.55% before 2027?	No	BUY	30	48¢	$14	0x9a7d79…
10-23 08:24:51	Next OpenAI GPT Terra (5.7+) released by October 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	10	40¢	$4	0x84691e…
10-23 08:24:48	Next OpenAI GPT Terra (5.7+) released by October 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	23	40¢	$9	0x7b2612…
10-23 04:13:53	Next OpenAI GPT Terra (5.7+) released by October 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	33	42¢	$14	0x6a5888…
10-12 01:50:35	Will South African inflation be greater than 5.0% in 2026?	No	BUY	63	40¢	$25	0x084753…
10-11 08:09:37	Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 24, 2026?	Yes	SELL	53	47¢	$25	0x243896…
10-11 08:09:36	Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 24, 2026?	Yes	BUY	53	47¢	$25	0x0304ae…
10-11 07:52:27	Variational FDV above $500M one day after launch?	Yes	SELL	229	90¢	$206	0x8d7abf…
09-11 17:22:06	Variational FDV above $500M one day after launch?	Yes	BUY	338	86¢	$290	0x5781c5…
09-05 08:37:01	Variational FDV above $500M one day after launch?	Yes	BUY	11	80¢	$9	0xbfee55…
09-05 08:36:46	Variational FDV above $500M one day after launch?	Yes	BUY	109	80¢	$87	0x8c0fd2…
09-05 08:33:51	Will Elche CF vs. Real Sociedad de Fútbol end in a draw?	Yes	BUY	5	28¢	$1	0x8c9119…
09-05 08:33:42	Will Getafe CF vs. RC Celta de Vigo end in a draw?	Yes	BUY	5	34¢	$2	0xa070f8…
09-05 08:33:31	Will RCD Espanyol de Barcelona vs. Sevilla FC end in a draw?	Yes	BUY	5	30¢	$2	0x878746…
09-05 08:33:24	Will Deportivo Alavés vs. CA Osasuna end in a draw?	Yes	BUY	5	32¢	$2	0x3ef9a1…
09-05 08:33:16	Will Málaga CF vs. Levante UD end in a draw?	Yes	BUY	5	30¢	$2	0x954ee9…
09-05 08:33:06	Will Villarreal CF vs. RC Deportivo A Coruña end in a draw?	Yes	BUY	5	21¢	$1	0x729433…
09-05 08:32:57	Will Rayo Vallecano de Madrid vs. Real Racing Club end in a draw?	Yes	BUY	5	28¢	$1	0x17c686…
09-05 08:32:48	Will Athletic Club vs. Club Atlético de Madrid end in a draw?	Yes	BUY	5	28¢	$1	0xbb2e61…
08-01 10:11:35	lol ns fox1 2026 08 01	BNK FEARX	SELL	8	60¢	$5	0x11fb34…
08-01 10:02:33	lol ns fox1 2026 08 01	BNK FEARX	BUY	8	87¢	$7	0xf20313…
08-01 09:31:03	lol ns fox1 2026 08 01 game2	BNK FEARX	SELL	8	100¢	$8	0xbf36c8…
08-01 09:21:47	lol ns fox1 2026 08 01 game2	BNK FEARX	BUY	8	82¢	$7	0x5cc110…
08-01 08:40:32	lol ns fox1 2026 08 01 game1	Nongshim Red Force	SELL	8	100¢	$8	0x16b837…
08-01 08:25:44	lol ns fox1 2026 08 01 game1	Nongshim Red Force	BUY	8	91¢	$7	0x0b45ba…
08-01 08:18:59	lol ns fox1 2026 08 01 game1	BNK FEARX	SELL	9	38¢	$3	0x092417…
08-01 08:14:14	lol ns fox1 2026 08 01 game1	BNK FEARX	BUY	9	80¢	$7	0xe0ca22…
08-01 07:40:12	lol al tt 2026 08 01 game1	Anyone's Legend	SELL	8	100¢	$8	0x6d7937…
08-01 07:31:44	lol al tt 2026 08 01 game1	Anyone's Legend	BUY	8	92¢	$7	0x9e01ea…
07-31 12:57:57	lol bro2 drx 2026 07 31	Kiwoom DRX	BUY	8	90¢	$7	0xceb6f7…
07-31 09:13:59	Will the highest temperature in Busan be 40°C on August 1?	No	BUY	6	82¢	$5	0x1c673c…
07-30 10:38:56	Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 36°C on July 31?	Yes	BUY	11	47¢	$5	0x559ba7…
07-30 10:34:11	lol shg dfm 2026 07 30	DetonatioN FocusMe	SELL	32	68¢	$22	0x22f3c3…
07-30 10:34:09	lol shg dfm 2026 07 30	DetonatioN FocusMe	SELL	40	71¢	$28	0x2692b1…
07-30 10:34:02	lol shg dfm 2026 07 30	DetonatioN FocusMe	BUY	25	71¢	$18	0xa72a22…
07-30 10:34:00	lol shg dfm 2026 07 30	DetonatioN FocusMe	BUY	41	71¢	$29	0x616c57…
07-30 10:34:00	lol shg dfm 2026 07 30	DetonatioN FocusMe	BUY	55	71¢	$39	0x5bfde9…
07-24 17:19:31	Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 34°C on July 25?	No	BUY	13	89¢	$12	0xd20bb3…
07-24 17:16:33	Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 34°C on July 25?	No	BUY	2	89¢	$2	0x46b1f4…
07-24 17:16:30	Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 34°C on July 25?	No	BUY	5	89¢	$4	0xed5774…
07-24 15:10:34	Clarity Act signed into law in 2026?	Yes	SELL	40	31¢	$12	0x63e8ec…
07-24 15:09:27	Clarity Act signed into law in 2026?	Yes	SELL	476	32¢	$152	0xbbc483…
07-24 15:08:06	Clarity Act signed into law in 2026?	Yes	BUY	516	35¢	$181	0xc743f0…
07-22 06:05:09	Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on July 23?	No	BUY	60	96¢	$58	0x5aad2e…
07-19 21:43:46	Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	SELL	600	93¢	$559	0xc56146…
07-15 10:30:04	will bitcoin reach 67k on july 15	No	SELL	22	96¢	$21	0xad8c58…
07-15 09:31:47	will bitcoin reach 67k on july 15	No	BUY	22	93¢	$20	0x88cacf…
07-15 08:30:10	wti up or down on july 15 2026	Up	SELL	20	50¢	$10	0x26e4a5…
07-15 08:30:02	wti up or down on july 15 2026	Up	BUY	20	52¢	$10	0xa3b210…
07-15 08:02:44	Will the highest temperature in London be 29°C on July 15?	No	BUY	5	91¢	$5	0xe7f7af…
07-15 00:08:59	will ethereum reach 1900 on july 14	No	SELL	7	50¢	$4	0x3ac965…
07-14 12:00:05	bnb up or down july 14 2026 7am et	Down	BUY	20	1¢	$0	0x9b7652…
07-14 10:36:53	will ethereum reach 1900 on july 14	No	BUY	21	94¢	$20	0xdc3c97…
07-14 10:36:05	will ethereum reach 1900 on july 14	No	BUY	10	96¢	$10	0x1e764a…
07-14 10:35:13	will ethereum reach 1900 on july 14	No	BUY	21	96¢	$20	0xf04e08…
07-14 09:24:35	will bitcoin reach 65k on july 14	No	BUY	11	95¢	$10	0x066974…
07-14 08:51:20	will bitcoin reach 65k on july 14	No	BUY	21	95¢	$20	0x1fe69e…
07-14 08:21:05	will bitcoin reach 65k on july 14	No	BUY	21	95¢	$20	0xfb6a57…
07-13 18:21:49	Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on July 14?	No	BUY	20	94¢	$19	0x003006…
07-12 00:17:52	will bitcoin dip to 62k on july 11	No	BUY	20	98¢	$20	0x4438b6…
07-10 17:38:31	will bitcoin reach 66k on july 10	No	BUY	21	97¢	$20	0xb701a4…
07-10 14:49:28	will solana reach 80 on july 10	No	BUY	25	79¢	$20	0x9b558e…