Empty-Avenue — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$22.9K

Unrealized P&L

-$1.37K

Hit rate

82.2%

Resolved

367

Trades

1,661

lifetime

Volume

$613.3K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$369

Open exposure

$4.82K

4 positions

First seen

2026-01-10

last 10-25 23:33

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 119 days

Categories

Other

62% 82% +$8,017

Tech

30% 83% +$10,778

Politics

7% 100% +$1,943

Pop-Culture

0% 33% +$1,986

Crypto

0% 100% +$117

Sports

0% 100% +$38

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

43 active days in 12wk • peak 64 trades/day

Open positions (4) Resolved markets (30) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will an AI lab announce another Millennium Prize solution by December 31, 2027?	Yes	+3,082	$2,827	66¢	$2.0K	-$777	09-11 06:43
Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 31, 2026?	No	+2,401	$588	68¢	$1.6K	+$1,038	10-21 14:05
Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 31, 2026?	Yes	+2,329	$1,911	32¢	$751	-$1,160	10-23 14:31
OpenAI announces it has achieved AGI before 2027?	Yes	+3,030	$861	13¢	$394	-$467	09-03 19:40

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
will google have the best ai model at the end of february 2026	40	$38.8K	49,669	49,283	+385	No	+$722	02-25 08:16
will 40 ships transit the strait of hormuz on any day by july 31 2026 743	2	$29.1K	15,889	15,889	+0	Yes	+$2,580	07-07 12:53
Will Student List – Students Win win the most seats in the 2026 Serbian parliamentary election?	16	$22.0K	14,022	14,022	+0	Yes	+$1,065	10-25 21:03
will 20 ships transit the strait of hormuz on any day by june 30 2026	24	$19.9K	10,043	10,043	+0	Yes	+$113	06-24 12:11
will claude 5 be released by february 28 2026 352 784	62	$18.5K	28,147	26,839	+1,308	No	-$2,732	02-26 14:17
Will any other model be the best AI model on August 10, 2026?	31	$14.4K	11,997	11,997	+0	Yes	+$8,352	08-06 18:55
will 60 ships transit the strait of hormuz on any day by june 30 2026	2	$12.2K	6,534	6,534	+0	No	+$728	07-03 14:29
Will the next Claude Opus model be released on July 24, 2026?	3	$12.1K	7,386	7,386	+0	Yes	+$2,644	07-24 17:10
Will Anthropic have the third best AI model at the end of April 2026?	17	$10.1K	7,043	6,943	+100	No	+$121	04-29 16:09
Will Google have the third best AI model at the end of April 2026?	16	$9.8K	8,274	5,255	+3,020	Yes	+$773	04-29 16:09
khamenei out as supreme leader of iran by march 31	2	$9.8K	5,000	5,000	+0	Yes	+$75	02-28 21:50
will there be at least 1100 measles cases in the us by february 28 2026 285 136	21	$9.2K	7,756	5,897	+1,859	Yes	+$434	02-27 14:53
will there be at least 1150 measles cases in the us by february 28 2026 917	5	$7.9K	4,671	4,671	+0	No	+$28	02-20 15:10
will claude 5 be released by march 31 2026 243 489 141 184	16	$6.8K	4,537	4,537	+0	No	+$246	02-15 19:21
Another GTA VI trailer released by May 31?	14	$6.7K	8,400	2,025	+6,376	No	-$1,752	05-22 11:04
will another company be accused of insider trading	23	$6.4K	21,189	21,188	+0	No	+$355	02-26 13:10
will there be at least 1200 measles cases in the us by february 28 2026 152 495 466 979 817	9	$6.1K	5,793	950	+4,843	No	+$549	02-28 16:30
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of May 2026?	4	$5.8K	5,073	2,000	+3,073	Yes	+$664	05-14 10:15
will a claude mythos model be released by june 9 2026	6	$5.7K	6,324	0	+6,324	Yes	+$645	06-09 16:53
Will Anthropic have the best Math AI model at the end of June 2026?	44	$5.6K	6,256	2,002	+4,254	No	-$351	06-09 19:00
Next Mythos-Class Model released by September 1, 2026?	9	$5.5K	6,798	438	+6,361	Yes	-$1,830	09-01 17:31
Will any other model be the best AI model on September 7, 2026?	2	$5.4K	6,236	128	+6,108	Yes	+$952	09-03 19:56
Over $15M committed to the Trove public sale?	3	$5.3K	3,622	3,622	+0	No	-$1,785	01-11 17:50
GPT-5.6 released by June 30, 2026?	11	$5.2K	3,421	3,421	+0	No	+$484	06-22 17:37
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of May 2026?	57	$5.1K	10,672	0	+10,672	No	-$1,648	05-11 19:19
Gemini 4.0 released by October 31, 2026?	3	$5.0K	5,608	0	+5,608	Yes	+$559	10-08 15:45
will there be at least 1550 measles cases in the us by march 31 2026	2	$5.0K	2,502	2,502	+0	Yes	+$24	03-27 15:04
will mrbeasts next video get between 70 and 80 million views on week 1 595	3	$4.8K	3,000	3,000	+0	Yes	+$390	01-29 09:59
will the next claude sonnet model be released by june 30 2026 20260624195228147 767	15	$4.5K	5,640	1,729	+3,910	Yes	-$370	06-30 17:42
over 50m committed to the ranger public sale nd7b 655	6	$4.4K	2,550	2,550	+0	Yes	+$441	01-10 15:35

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
10-25 23:33:26	Will voter turnout in the 2026 Serbian parliamentary election be 66-70%?	Yes	BUY	32	56¢	$18	0x20165e…
10-25 23:09:08	Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Yes	BUY	4,000	87¢	$3,476	0xc53991…
10-25 22:24:42	Will Ivica Dačić – Factor of Stability! win the third most seats in the 2026 Serbian parliamentary election?	Yes	SELL	154	3¢	$5	0xba880f…
10-25 21:03:41	Will Student List – Students Win win the most seats in the 2026 Serbian parliamentary election?	Yes	SELL	89	99¢	$88	0xfa11a3…
10-25 21:03:21	Will Student List – Students Win win the most seats in the 2026 Serbian parliamentary election?	Yes	SELL	5	99¢	$5	0xdc8739…
10-25 21:03:14	Will Student List – Students Win win the most seats in the 2026 Serbian parliamentary election?	Yes	SELL	18	99¢	$17	0xb73694…
10-25 21:03:12	Will Student List – Students Win win the most seats in the 2026 Serbian parliamentary election?	Yes	SELL	5,000	99¢	$4,945	0xf2c3f9…
10-25 21:03:06	Will Student List – Students Win win the most seats in the 2026 Serbian parliamentary election?	Yes	SELL	809	99¢	$800	0xcf8cbc…
10-25 21:02:41	Will Student List – Students Win win the most seats in the 2026 Serbian parliamentary election?	Yes	SELL	2,000	99¢	$1,978	0x1b2693…
10-25 21:02:32	Will Student List – Students Win win the most seats in the 2026 Serbian parliamentary election?	Yes	SELL	101	99¢	$100	0xeba2f9…
10-25 21:01:41	Will Student List – Students Win win the most seats in the 2026 Serbian parliamentary election?	Yes	SELL	2,000	99¢	$1,978	0x319a6e…
10-25 20:54:02	Will Ivica Dačić – Factor of Stability! win the third most seats in the 2026 Serbian parliamentary election?	Yes	BUY	154	51¢	$78	0x287725…
10-25 20:51:09	Will voter turnout in the 2026 Serbian parliamentary election be 66-70%?	Yes	BUY	2,931	43¢	$1,271	0x6c248b…
10-25 20:34:21	Will Student List – Students Win win the most seats in the 2026 Serbian parliamentary election?	Yes	BUY	500	91¢	$455	0x27f24d…
10-25 20:33:14	Will Student List – Students Win win the most seats in the 2026 Serbian parliamentary election?	Yes	BUY	2,021	89¢	$1,799	0xbb51d3…
10-25 20:32:42	Will Student List – Students Win win the most seats in the 2026 Serbian parliamentary election?	Yes	BUY	7,501	88¢	$6,593	0x4172d6…
10-25 20:14:35	Will Student List – Students Win win the most seats in the 2026 Serbian parliamentary election?	Yes	SELL	690	40¢	$276	0x02912f…
10-25 20:14:08	Will Student List – Students Win win the most seats in the 2026 Serbian parliamentary election?	Yes	SELL	435	40¢	$174	0xa2c3e4…
10-25 20:12:09	Will Student List – Students Win win the most seats in the 2026 Serbian parliamentary election?	Yes	SELL	1,343	40¢	$537	0xefd884…
10-25 20:12:00	Will Student List – Students Win win the most seats in the 2026 Serbian parliamentary election?	Yes	SELL	1,532	40¢	$613	0x5db7f9…
10-25 20:04:39	Will Student List – Students Win win the most seats in the 2026 Serbian parliamentary election?	Yes	BUY	4,000	40¢	$1,600	0x54790a…
10-25 18:10:14	Will voter turnout in the 2026 Serbian parliamentary election be 70% or more?	Yes	SELL	1,268	64¢	$815	0x6387e1…
10-25 16:12:33	Will voter turnout in the 2026 Serbian parliamentary election be 70% or more?	Yes	BUY	1,268	64¢	$811	0x010b90…
10-25 15:47:54	Will voter turnout in the 2026 Serbian parliamentary election be 70% or more?	Yes	SELL	683	58¢	$396	0x61f496…
10-25 15:47:03	Will voter turnout in the 2026 Serbian parliamentary election be 70% or more?	Yes	SELL	10	58¢	$6	0x68657f…
10-25 15:45:36	Will voter turnout in the 2026 Serbian parliamentary election be 70% or more?	Yes	SELL	2	70¢	$1	0x862deb…
10-25 15:45:36	Will voter turnout in the 2026 Serbian parliamentary election be 70% or more?	Yes	SELL	5	70¢	$4	0x49a29a…
10-25 14:25:11	Will voter turnout in the 2026 Serbian parliamentary election be 70% or more?	Yes	BUY	700	51¢	$357	0xfbf98d…
10-23 14:31:57	Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	157	25¢	$40	0x3524c9…
10-21 14:05:30	Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 31, 2026?	No	BUY	1,200	26¢	$311	0x897273…
10-20 17:47:14	Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 21, 2026?	No	BUY	100	93¢	$93	0xa180a0…
10-20 17:33:24	Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 21, 2026?	No	BUY	146	87¢	$127	0x2aff3d…
10-19 18:35:39	Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 31, 2026?	No	BUY	1,201	23¢	$277	0xe828db…
10-15 21:50:24	next fable model 5pt2 released by october 31 2026	Yes	SELL	18	88¢	$16	0x2ba406…
10-15 21:48:17	next fable model 5pt2 released by october 31 2026	Yes	SELL	370	88¢	$325	0x0205c3…
10-15 21:46:03	next fable model 5pt2 released by october 31 2026	Yes	SELL	126	88¢	$110	0xb8ae23…
10-13 15:18:52	Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	3,000	80¢	$2,402	0x1d62ff…
10-13 13:21:16	Gemini 4.0 released by October 13, 2026?	No	SELL	568	6¢	$35	0x8ae132…
10-13 13:21:14	Gemini 4.0 released by October 13, 2026?	No	SELL	64	5¢	$3	0xe8c085…
10-13 13:20:56	Gemini Argon released by October 16, 2026?	Yes	BUY	788	96¢	$757	0xc8ed9c…
10-13 13:20:56	Gemini Argon released by October 16, 2026?	Yes	BUY	2	96¢	$2	0x84c7fa…
10-13 13:20:46	Gemini Argon released by October 14, 2026?	Yes	BUY	990	95¢	$937	0x64e06c…
10-13 13:20:34	Will Gemini Argon be released on October 13, 2026?	Yes	BUY	75	90¢	$67	0x108300…
10-09 06:09:34	Gemini 4.0 released by October 15, 2026?	No	BUY	3,313	44¢	$1,443	0x194b3a…
10-08 22:02:00	Gemini 4.0 released by October 16, 2026?	No	BUY	1,435	42¢	$603	0xf1d744…
10-08 21:08:27	gemini 4pt0 released by october 16 2026	No	BUY	17	42¢	$7	0x23fe25…
10-08 20:53:26	gemini 4pt0 released by october 16 2026	No	BUY	30	42¢	$13	0x8d370d…
10-08 20:44:47	Gemini 4.0 released by October 16, 2026?	No	BUY	200	42¢	$84	0xa5c8e7…
10-08 20:44:29	Gemini 4.0 released by October 16, 2026?	No	BUY	200	42¢	$84	0xd1fa02…
10-08 20:18:20	gemini 4pt0 released by october 16 2026	No	BUY	83	42¢	$35	0x334425…
10-08 19:45:23	Gemini 4.0 released by October 16, 2026?	No	BUY	34	42¢	$14	0xd49633…
10-08 18:33:50	Gemini 4.0 released by October 16, 2026?	No	BUY	170	40¢	$68	0x141471…
10-08 17:34:11	Gemini 4.0 released by October 10, 2026?	No	BUY	347	87¢	$302	0x6af122…
10-08 17:33:53	Gemini 4.0 released by October 9, 2026?	No	BUY	268	91¢	$243	0xf75d4f…
10-08 15:45:44	Gemini 4.0 released by October 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	2,182	92¢	$2,001	0x1fe0a0…
10-08 15:45:24	Gemini 4.0 released by October 16, 2026?	No	SELL	475	10¢	$48	0x6955b8…
10-08 15:45:06	Gemini 4.0 released by October 10, 2026?	Yes	BUY	165	12¢	$19	0x470e81…
10-08 15:44:35	Gemini 4.0 released by October 10, 2026?	Yes	BUY	113	10¢	$11	0x7b3901…
10-08 15:44:21	Gemini 4.0 released by October 12, 2026?	Yes	BUY	620	24¢	$148	0x40aa6f…
10-08 15:44:14	Gemini 4.0 released by October 13, 2026?	Yes	BUY	55	41¢	$22	0xb10350…
10-08 15:44:09	Gemini 4.0 released by October 14, 2026?	Yes	BUY	376	61¢	$229	0x9fdaf6…
10-08 15:43:36	Gemini 4.0 released by October 14, 2026?	No	SELL	221	40¢	$88	0x2cf4e4…
10-08 15:09:53	Gemini 4.0 released by October 16, 2026?	No	BUY	1,000	30¢	$300	0x3ae911…
10-08 15:06:11	Gemini 4.0 released by October 10, 2026?	No	BUY	642	78¢	$503	0x22191b…
10-08 15:06:02	Gemini 4.0 released by October 12, 2026?	No	BUY	200	75¢	$150	0xf704a7…
10-08 15:05:23	Gemini 4.0 released by October 16, 2026?	No	BUY	549	17¢	$93	0xb253d8…
10-08 15:05:17	Gemini 4.0 released by October 15, 2026?	No	BUY	320	25¢	$82	0x67b6fa…
10-08 15:05:14	Gemini 4.0 released by October 14, 2026?	No	BUY	221	35¢	$78	0xb80510…
10-08 15:05:09	Gemini 4.0 released by October 13, 2026?	No	BUY	632	53¢	$335	0x5f552a…
10-07 19:28:51	gemini argon released by october 31 2026	Yes	BUY	1,365	91¢	$1,238	0x0f01c4…
10-07 17:36:27	Will the next Claude Haiku model (4.6+) be released on October 7, 2026?	Yes	BUY	285	98¢	$280	0x94cf1a…
10-07 17:35:57	Will the next Claude Haiku (4.6+) model be released by October 15, 2026?	Yes	BUY	62	99¢	$61	0x788089…
10-07 17:35:57	Will the next Claude Haiku (4.6+) model be released by October 15, 2026?	Yes	BUY	31	99¢	$31	0x762f35…
10-07 17:35:55	Will the next Claude Haiku (4.6+) model be released by October 7, 2026?	Yes	BUY	10	99¢	$10	0x3412db…
10-07 14:04:11	Gemini 4.0 released by October 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	2,169	94¢	$2,029	0x81878c…
10-07 14:03:59	Gemini 4.0 released by October 10, 2026?	Yes	BUY	1,313	56¢	$735	0xd65f98…
10-07 14:03:44	Gemini 4.0 released by October 15, 2026?	Yes	BUY	1,372	73¢	$999	0x68e6be…
10-07 10:19:17	Will AI solve the Hodge Conjecture in 2026?	Yes	SELL	210	26¢	$55	0x2bfe55…
10-07 10:19:06	Will AI solve 0 more Millennium Prize Problems in 2026?	No	SELL	417	33¢	$138	0x0d77a4…
10-07 10:18:50	Will an AI lab announce another Millennium Prize solution by December 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	547	32¢	$175	0xbd7561…
10-07 07:25:24	Gemini 4.0 released by October 15, 2026?	Yes	BUY	238	72¢	$170	0x375a67…
10-06 02:36:16	Gemini 4.0 released by October 15, 2026?	Yes	SELL	54	70¢	$38	0xff6462…
10-06 02:33:19	Gemini 4.0 released by October 15, 2026?	Yes	SELL	1	70¢	$1	0xd1c350…
10-06 02:33:18	Gemini 4.0 released by October 15, 2026?	Yes	SELL	4	70¢	$2	0x100b10…
10-06 00:32:08	Gemini 4.0 released by October 15, 2026?	Yes	SELL	15	70¢	$11	0x2eb6db…
10-05 20:09:11	Gemini 4.0 released by October 15, 2026?	Yes	SELL	2	70¢	$2	0xd9e9c2…
10-05 20:09:10	Gemini 4.0 released by October 15, 2026?	Yes	SELL	2	70¢	$1	0xa16bbc…
10-05 20:09:07	Gemini 4.0 released by October 15, 2026?	Yes	SELL	43	70¢	$30	0xc05162…
10-05 20:09:07	Gemini 4.0 released by October 15, 2026?	Yes	SELL	2	70¢	$2	0x6bd02d…
10-05 19:44:13	Gemini 4.0 released by October 15, 2026?	Yes	SELL	877	68¢	$596	0xadb082…
10-04 20:44:25	Will Flavio Bolsonaro win the most votes in the first round of the 2026 Brazil presidential election?	Yes	SELL	2,000	68¢	$1,360	0x01edca…
10-04 20:39:28	Will Flavio Bolsonaro win the most votes in the first round of the 2026 Brazil presidential election?	Yes	BUY	2,000	60¢	$1,199	0x00daa2…
10-02 23:13:47	Will the next Sonnet model debut at a score of at least 1500 by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	117	100¢	$116	0xb8c336…
10-02 17:28:59	Will the next Sonnet model debut at a score of at least 1480 by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	50	97¢	$49	0x0f07c9…
10-02 16:26:36	Will the next Sonnet model debut at a score of at least 1500 by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	90	100¢	$89	0x320a6d…
10-02 16:25:41	Will the next Sonnet model debut at a score of at least 1490 by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	208	99¢	$207	0x00ef5d…
10-02 16:23:39	Will the next Sonnet model debut at a score of at least 1510 by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	1,096	100¢	$1,094	0x4636cc…
10-02 16:22:45	Will the next Sonnet model debut at a score of at least 1510 by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	52	100¢	$52	0xf6320c…
10-02 16:10:15	Will the next Sonnet model debut at a score of at least 1510 by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	1,148	93¢	$1,063	0xae29fd…
10-02 16:10:15	Will the next Sonnet model debut at a score of at least 1500 by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	206	91¢	$187	0x60a7bb…