Insubstantial-Belligerency — Polymarket

Realized P&L (90d)

-$395

Unrealized P&L

+$50

Hit rate

99.4%

Resolved (90d)

Trades (90d)

884 lifetime

Volume (90d)

$154.8K

$817.9K lifetime

Avg / trade

$925

Open exposure

$9.25K

1 position

First seen

2026-01-01

last 10-26 20:09

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 111 days

Categories

Other

46% 100% +$1,429

Politics

29% 96% +$594

Crypto

17% 100% +$281

Sports

6% 100% +$271

Tech

2% 100% +$24

Pop-Culture

0% 100% +$6

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

20 active days in 12wk • peak 24 trades/day

Open positions (1) Resolved markets (30) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?	Yes		+10,000	$9,200	92¢	$9.2K	+$50	09-21 05:20

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
fifwc fra mar 2026 07 09 team to advance	3	$33.9K	34,047	0	+34,047	France	+$170	07-09 21:50
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?	2	$30.4K	30,500	0	+30,500	No	+$96	09-14 07:18
Roland Garros ATP: Jannik Sinner vs Clement Tabur	8	$24.2K	24,334	0	+24,334	Jannik Sinner	+$141	05-26 19:29
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-21?	9	$21.2K	21,193	0	+21,193	No	+$42	06-21 16:23
Will Rafael López Aliaga win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?	40	$21.0K	13,213	9,341	+3,872	No	+$60	06-06 08:15
Will Malta win Eurovision 2026?	1	$20.2K	20,254	0	+20,254	No	+$81	05-16 20:28
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?	1	$20.0K	20,000	0	+20,000	No	+$20	10-26 10:45
will bitcoin reach 100k in february 2026	1	$20.0K	20,000	0	+20,000	No	+$20	02-23 06:49
will antnio jos seguro win the 2026 portugal presidential election	24	$15.7K	15,954	0	+15,954	Yes	+$280	02-05 21:49
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $4T?	1	$15.1K	15,125	0	+15,125	No	+$15	06-12 18:07
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in September?	1	$15.0K	15,000	0	+15,000	No	+$15	09-29 05:49
will bitcoin reach 72pt5k in june 2026	1	$14.9K	14,905	0	+14,905	No	+$45	06-28 05:51
Will the Swedish Social Democratic Party (S) win the most seats in the 2026 Swedish parliamentary election?	24	$13.5K	13,624	0	+13,624	Yes	+$124	09-12 12:39
will sarah knafo win the paris mayor election	14	$13.5K	13,587	0	+13,587	No	+$121	03-15 17:23
Will Bitcoin reach $105,000 in April?	2	$11.9K	12,000	0	+12,000	No	+$60	04-07 10:50
will andr ventura win the 2026 portugal presidential election	2	$11.9K	12,010	0	+12,010	No	+$130	02-02 06:20
netanyahu out by march 31 854	2	$11.5K	11,779	0	+11,779	No	+$304	03-30 16:42
Opinion FDV above $5B one day after launch?	2	$11.2K	11,239	0	+11,239	No	+$11	03-03 10:47
Will Robert Abela be the next Prime Minister of Malta following the 2026 Maltese general election?	14	$11.1K	11,113	0	+11,113	Yes	+$14	06-01 06:57
maduro in us custody by january 31	1	$11.0K	11,020	0	+11,020	Yes	+$11	01-04 11:06
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar?	2	$10.9K	10,949	0	+10,949	Yes	+$14	05-08 19:21
Opinion FDV above $3B one day after launch?	2	$10.6K	10,565	0	+10,565	No	+$11	03-05 13:23
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31?	1	$10.0K	10,000	0	+10,000	No	+$10	05-29 05:59
fed decreases interest rates by 50 bps after january 2026 meeting	1	$9.9K	10,000	0	+10,000	No	+$60	01-08 06:29
will bayern mnchen reach the uefa champions league quarter finals	5	$9.8K	9,816	0	+9,816	Yes	+$37	03-18 13:29
will tisza respect and freedom party tisza win the most seats in the next hungarian parliamentary election	8	$9.7K	9,762	0	+9,762	Yes	+$26	04-12 21:05
will the iranian regime fall by march 31	2	$9.5K	9,577	0	+9,577	No	+$48	03-29 07:53
Will Rumen Radev be the next prime minister of Bulgaria after the 2026 parliamentary election?	73	$9.5K	8,714	956	+7,758	Yes	+$128	05-08 03:57
Will Renan Santos qualify for Brazil's presidential runoff?	1	$9.4K	9,413	0	+9,413	No	+$9	10-03 06:55
Will Bitcoin reach $95,000 in September?	2	$9.3K	9,357	0	+9,357	No	+$9	09-30 17:31

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
10-26 20:09:11	Will Lionel Messi win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	No	BUY	4,490	100¢	$4,481	0xdee602…
10-26 10:45:38	Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?	No	BUY	20,000	100¢	$19,980	0xca8613…
10-26 10:43:51	Will Iliana Iotova win the most votes in the first round of the 2026 Bulgaria presidential election?	Yes	BUY	2,270	100¢	$2,268	0xe2bdf3…
10-08 19:22:44	Will Flavio Bolsonaro win the most votes in the second round of the Brazil presidential election from Rio Grande do Sul?	Yes	BUY	209	99¢	$207	0x3a1821…
10-08 19:21:14	Will Flavio Bolsonaro win the most votes in the second round of the Brazil presidential election from Santa Catarina?	Yes	BUY	432	99¢	$427	0xd38305…
10-08 19:20:56	Will Flavio Bolsonaro win the most votes in the second round of the Brazil presidential election from Roraima?	Yes	BUY	344	99¢	$341	0x1609e6…
10-08 19:20:39	Will Flavio Bolsonaro win the most votes in the second round of the Brazil presidential election from Rondônia?	Yes	BUY	126	98¢	$124	0x083d7a…
10-08 19:20:11	Will Flavio Bolsonaro win the most votes in the second round of the Brazil presidential election from Paraná?	Yes	BUY	345	99¢	$342	0x88f738…
10-08 19:19:09	Will Flavio Bolsonaro win the most votes in the second round of the Brazil presidential election from Acre?	Yes	BUY	47	99¢	$46	0x564681…
10-05 05:44:16	Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	No	BUY	500	83¢	$415	0x636556…
10-05 05:43:52	Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Yes	BUY	500	83¢	$416	0x0f128a…
10-05 05:40:16	Will Lula win the most votes in the next Brazil presidential election from Tocantins?	No	BUY	220	100¢	$220	0xc8001c…
10-05 05:39:56	Will Flavio Bolsonaro win the most votes in the next Brazil presidential election from Tocantins?	Yes	BUY	1,079	100¢	$1,078	0xf327cf…
10-05 05:38:20	Will Flavio Bolsonaro win the most votes in the next Brazil presidential election from São Paulo?	Yes	BUY	55	97¢	$54	0x2c8479…
10-05 05:36:43	Will Veterinário Wilson Grassi win the most votes in the next Brazil presidential election from Santa Catarina?	No	BUY	39	100¢	$39	0x098031…
10-05 05:36:34	Will Pablo Marçal win the most votes in the next Brazil presidential election from Santa Catarina?	No	BUY	26	100¢	$26	0xaeb1f6…
10-05 05:36:20	Will Hertz Dias win the most votes in the next Brazil presidential election from Santa Catarina?	No	BUY	14	100¢	$14	0x4a84c0…
10-05 05:35:47	Will Veterinário Wilson Grassi win the most votes in the next Brazil presidential election from Roraima?	No	BUY	114	100¢	$114	0xbb2052…
10-05 05:33:58	Will Lula win the most votes in the next Brazil presidential election from Rondônia?	No	BUY	130	100¢	$130	0x4ab95f…
10-05 05:33:44	Will Flavio Bolsonaro win the most votes in the next Brazil presidential election from Rondônia?	Yes	BUY	3,408	100¢	$3,398	0x88a537…
10-05 05:28:22	Will Flavio Bolsonaro win the most votes in the next Brazil presidential election from Rio de Janeiro?	Yes	BUY	15	100¢	$15	0xb9a6d7…
10-05 05:26:56	Will Lula win the most votes in the next Brazil presidential election from Paraíba?	Yes	BUY	543	100¢	$542	0x8aba74…
10-05 05:25:50	Will Lula win the most votes in the next Brazil presidential election from Pernambuco?	Yes	BUY	143	100¢	$143	0x01c50d…
10-05 05:24:40	Will Flavio Bolsonaro win the most votes in the next Brazil presidential election from Mato Grosso do Sul?	Yes	BUY	130	100¢	$130	0xa48a6f…
10-05 05:24:29	Will Lula win the most votes in the next Brazil presidential election from Mato Grosso do Sul?	No	BUY	155	100¢	$155	0x308078…
10-05 05:23:31	Will Ronaldo Caiado win the most votes in the next Brazil presidential election from Goiás?	No	BUY	266	100¢	$265	0x917e30…
10-05 05:22:50	Will Flavio Bolsonaro win the most votes in the next Brazil presidential election from Espírito Santo?	Yes	BUY	184	100¢	$183	0x0bfa6d…
10-05 05:22:37	Will Lula win the most votes in the next Brazil presidential election from Espírito Santo?	No	BUY	134	100¢	$134	0x2fc459…
10-05 05:21:56	Will Flavio Bolsonaro win the most votes in the next Brazil presidential election from Mato Grosso?	Yes	BUY	54	100¢	$54	0x2cecc2…
10-05 05:21:34	Will Lula win the most votes in the next Brazil presidential election from Maranhão?	Yes	BUY	530	100¢	$529	0x4d5a39…
10-05 05:21:04	Will Flavio Bolsonaro win the most votes in the next Brazil presidential election from Federal District?	Yes	BUY	1,461	100¢	$1,459	0x97628a…
10-05 05:12:32	Will Lula win the most votes in the next Brazil presidential election from Alagoas?	Yes	BUY	993	100¢	$992	0x259066…
10-05 05:12:19	Will Flavio Bolsonaro win the most votes in the next Brazil presidential election from Alagoas?	No	BUY	125	100¢	$125	0xf10e24…
10-03 08:08:02	Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva qualify for Brazil's presidential runoff?	Yes	BUY	293	99¢	$291	0x834d92…
10-03 08:07:45	Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva qualify for Brazil's presidential runoff?	Yes	BUY	4,295	99¢	$4,266	0xbadc72…
10-03 06:55:45	Will Renan Santos qualify for Brazil's presidential runoff?	No	BUY	9,413	100¢	$9,404	0x285b98…
10-01 22:37:06	Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva qualify for Brazil's presidential runoff?	Yes	BUY	1,000	98¢	$980	0x64a3ad…
09-30 17:31:08	Will Bitcoin reach $95,000 in September?	No	BUY	357	100¢	$357	0xe7d2ab…
09-30 05:46:06	Will Bitcoin reach $95,000 in September?	No	BUY	9,000	100¢	$8,991	0xb7df0c…
09-29 05:49:29	Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in September?	No	BUY	15,000	100¢	$14,985	0xdd8ead…
09-29 05:23:35	Will Flavio Bolsonaro qualify for Brazil's presidential runoff?	Yes	BUY	15	99¢	$15	0xd86c2e…
09-28 17:18:56	Will Domenico Giannetta win the next Reggio di Calabria by-election?	No	BUY	77	100¢	$77	0xa08ece…
09-21 05:20:43	Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?	Yes	BUY	3,688	92¢	$3,393	0x2e3de2…
09-21 05:17:57	Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?	Yes	BUY	65	92¢	$60	0x520164…
09-21 05:17:52	Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?	Yes	BUY	6,247	92¢	$5,747	0x275905…
09-15 13:17:49	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the September 2026 meeting?	No	BUY	100	99¢	$99	0x59ec0e…
09-14 07:18:36	Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?	No	BUY	30,000	100¢	$29,910	0x7b8323…
09-13 07:28:21	Will Karsten Schneider win the next Wolfsburg mayoral election?	No	BUY	1,405	100¢	$1,402	0xe9a74d…
09-12 17:54:10	Campbell vs. Florida	Florida	BUY	4,167	100¢	$4,150	0x0f14f4…
09-12 12:39:22	Will the Swedish Social Democratic Party (S) win the most seats in the 2026 Swedish parliamentary election?	Yes	BUY	166	99¢	$165	0xc651f3…
09-12 12:38:51	Will the Swedish Social Democratic Party (S) win the most seats in the 2026 Swedish parliamentary election?	Yes	BUY	966	99¢	$960	0xf795c9…
09-12 12:38:03	Will the Swedish Social Democratic Party (S) win the most seats in the 2026 Swedish parliamentary election?	Yes	BUY	500	99¢	$497	0x422a78…
09-12 12:37:22	Will the Swedish Social Democratic Party (S) win the most seats in the 2026 Swedish parliamentary election?	Yes	BUY	540	99¢	$537	0x0d198a…
09-12 12:37:01	Will the Swedish Social Democratic Party (S) win the most seats in the 2026 Swedish parliamentary election?	Yes	BUY	2,289	99¢	$2,275	0xd7ca00…
09-05 07:42:43	Will Marat Kambolov win the 2026 South Ossetia presidential elections?	Yes	BUY	236	99¢	$234	0xdf05ed…
09-05 07:41:57	Will United Russia (ER) win the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?	Yes	BUY	733	99¢	$725	0xc7e8b2…
09-05 07:40:48	Will Ülle Madise be the next President of Estonia?	Yes	BUY	801	100¢	$801	0x0bc8b0…
09-05 07:40:15	Will Dennis Weilmann win the next Wolfsburg mayoral election?	Yes	BUY	10	98¢	$10	0x8ab26b…
09-05 07:37:06	Will CDU win the most seats in the 2026 Sachsen-Anhalt parliamentary elections?	No	BUY	3,720	100¢	$3,716	0x289639…
09-03 13:46:13	Will CDU win the most seats in the 2026 Sachsen-Anhalt parliamentary elections?	No	BUY	62	100¢	$61	0x30ed9f…
09-03 13:45:39	Will AfD win the most seats in the 2026 Sachsen-Anhalt parliamentary elections?	Yes	BUY	2,577	100¢	$2,571	0x1f4444…
08-30 15:44:04	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by August 31, 2026?	No	BUY	7	100¢	$7	0x55b807…
08-30 11:50:18	Will AfD win the most seats in the 2026 Sachsen-Anhalt parliamentary elections?	Yes	BUY	349	100¢	$348	0x7c80bd…
08-30 11:46:24	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by August 31, 2026?	No	BUY	6,997	100¢	$6,990	0x07da5f…
08-28 14:15:12	Will the Swedish Social Democratic Party (S) win the most seats in the 2026 Swedish parliamentary election?	Yes	BUY	81	99¢	$80	0xd1896c…
08-28 14:15:10	Will the Swedish Social Democratic Party (S) win the most seats in the 2026 Swedish parliamentary election?	Yes	BUY	187	99¢	$186	0xda2905…
08-28 14:15:10	Will the Swedish Social Democratic Party (S) win the most seats in the 2026 Swedish parliamentary election?	Yes	BUY	250	99¢	$248	0x968c4b…
08-28 14:15:10	Will the Swedish Social Democratic Party (S) win the most seats in the 2026 Swedish parliamentary election?	Yes	BUY	250	99¢	$248	0x8ab471…
08-28 14:15:10	Will the Swedish Social Democratic Party (S) win the most seats in the 2026 Swedish parliamentary election?	Yes	BUY	31	99¢	$31	0x33413f…
08-28 14:14:55	Will the Swedish Social Democratic Party (S) win the most seats in the 2026 Swedish parliamentary election?	Yes	BUY	800	99¢	$792	0x04d089…
08-28 14:14:19	Will the Swedish Social Democratic Party (S) win the most seats in the 2026 Swedish parliamentary election?	Yes	BUY	400	99¢	$396	0x6ae9bc…
08-28 14:14:03	Will the Swedish Social Democratic Party (S) win the most seats in the 2026 Swedish parliamentary election?	Yes	BUY	1,635	99¢	$1,618	0xdccac9…
08-27 15:12:46	Will the Swedish Social Democratic Party (S) win the most seats in the 2026 Swedish parliamentary election?	Yes	BUY	754	99¢	$746	0xe47c41…
08-27 15:02:43	Will the Swedish Social Democratic Party (S) win the most seats in the 2026 Swedish parliamentary election?	Yes	BUY	125	99¢	$124	0x278b5c…
08-27 15:02:42	Will the Swedish Social Democratic Party (S) win the most seats in the 2026 Swedish parliamentary election?	Yes	BUY	250	99¢	$248	0x9aa8d6…
08-27 15:02:42	Will the Swedish Social Democratic Party (S) win the most seats in the 2026 Swedish parliamentary election?	Yes	BUY	40	99¢	$40	0x0af896…
08-27 15:02:21	Will the Swedish Social Democratic Party (S) win the most seats in the 2026 Swedish parliamentary election?	Yes	BUY	322	99¢	$318	0x5755ab…
08-27 14:18:04	Will the Swedish Social Democratic Party (S) win the sixth most seats in the 2026 Swedish parliamentary election?	No	BUY	195	100¢	$194	0xa264b6…
08-27 13:49:36	Will the Swedish Social Democratic Party (S) win the most seats in the 2026 Swedish parliamentary election?	Yes	BUY	323	99¢	$320	0x107f9b…
08-26 13:27:54	Will the Swedish Social Democratic Party (S) win the most seats in the 2026 Swedish parliamentary election?	Yes	BUY	1,566	99¢	$1,548	0x913fc3…
08-26 12:27:33	Will the Swedish Social Democratic Party (S) win the sixth most seats in the 2026 Swedish parliamentary election?	No	BUY	109	100¢	$108	0xa898bd…
08-26 12:27:12	Will the Swedish Social Democratic Party (S) win the sixth most seats in the 2026 Swedish parliamentary election?	No	BUY	109	100¢	$108	0x5080bb…
08-26 12:21:57	Will the Swedish Social Democratic Party (S) win the most seats in the 2026 Swedish parliamentary election?	Yes	BUY	19	99¢	$19	0xc54e6b…
08-26 12:21:57	Will the Swedish Social Democratic Party (S) win the most seats in the 2026 Swedish parliamentary election?	Yes	BUY	344	99¢	$339	0x4a82b4…
08-26 12:21:57	Will the Swedish Social Democratic Party (S) win the most seats in the 2026 Swedish parliamentary election?	Yes	BUY	40	99¢	$39	0x48b0d5…
08-26 12:21:30	Will the Swedish Social Democratic Party (S) win the sixth most seats in the 2026 Swedish parliamentary election?	No	BUY	142	100¢	$141	0x8da78e…
08-26 12:20:51	Will the Swedish Social Democratic Party (S) win the sixth most seats in the 2026 Swedish parliamentary election?	No	BUY	311	100¢	$310	0x2980d4…
08-26 12:20:24	Will the Swedish Social Democratic Party (S) win the sixth most seats in the 2026 Swedish parliamentary election?	No	BUY	312	100¢	$311	0xe678ee…
08-26 11:47:09	Will the Swedish Social Democratic Party (S) win the most seats in the 2026 Swedish parliamentary election?	Yes	BUY	1,744	99¢	$1,726	0xd86401…
08-26 10:18:49	Will CDU win the most seats in the 2026 Sachsen-Anhalt parliamentary elections?	No	BUY	699	100¢	$696	0xabc376…
08-16 19:06:33	will anthropic ipo by september 15 2026 415	No	BUY	167	98¢	$164	0x031608…
08-16 19:05:21	will anthropic ipo by september 15 2026 415	No	BUY	111	98¢	$109	0x24f6c3…
08-16 19:05:03	will anthropic ipo by september 15 2026 415	No	BUY	167	98¢	$164	0x36eb83…
08-16 19:04:36	will anthropic ipo by september 15 2026 415	No	BUY	56	98¢	$55	0x71a636…
08-16 07:33:01	Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?	No	BUY	500	99¢	$494	0xc5417b…
07-19 20:08:15	Will Jennifer Lopez perform at the 2026 FIFA World Cup Final halftime show?	No	BUY	317	100¢	$316	0x2044cb…
07-19 20:07:58	Will Adele perform at the 2026 FIFA World Cup Final halftime show?	No	BUY	1,205	100¢	$1,204	0x45d54f…
07-19 14:58:18	Will Paul Seixas win the 2026 Tour De France?	No	BUY	985	99¢	$981	0xb3cc20…
07-19 13:59:51	Will Paul Seixas win the 2026 Tour De France?	No	BUY	15	99¢	$14	0x7a64d3…
07-19 09:05:37	Will Paul Seixas win the 2026 Tour De France?	No	BUY	226	99¢	$224	0xea1023…