Disastrous-Belly — Polymarket

Realized P&L (24h)

—

Unrealized P&L

-$0

Hit rate

—

Resolved (24h)

Trades (24h)

198 lifetime

Volume (24h)

$2.92K lifetime

Avg / trade

$15

Open exposure

$16

1 position

First seen

2026-01-07

last 11-04 00:24

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 46 days

Categories

Other

42% 99% +$10

Politics

41% 83% $0

Crypto

13% 98% +$1

Sports

2% 100% +$1

Tech

2% 100% +$0

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

30 active days in 12wk • peak 8 trades/day

Open positions (1) Resolved markets (30) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Variational FDV above $300M one day after launch?	Yes		+16	$16	94¢	$16	$0	10-07 01:31

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Will Likud win 30-34 seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	9	$437	233	233	-0	No	+$5	10-28 10:58
Will the Republicans win the Texas Senate race in 2026?	2	$201	136	136	+0	No	+$3	11-04 00:24
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	3	$160	229	111	+117	Yes	+$6	10-25 23:43
US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 7, 2026?	2	$148	75	75	+0	No	+$0	09-07 12:18
Will Tarcísio de Freitas win the 2026 São Paulo gubernatorial election?	2	$131	66	66	+0	Yes	+$0	10-05 18:25
Will Alphabet be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on September 30?	2	$128	64	64	+0	Yes	+$0	09-30 17:28
US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 31, 2026?	4	$105	54	54	+0	No	+$0	09-01 03:51
saudi oil pipeline east west restarts by september 30	1	$74	74	0	+74	No	+$0	10-01 03:28
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 15?	1	$70	71	0	+71	No	+$0	09-14 15:03
US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by August 31?	2	$70	36	36	+0	No	+$1	08-31 13:47
us x iran diplomatic meeting by august 7 2026	1	$66	66	0	+66	No	+$0	08-06 13:26
us announces end of iranian blockade by august 9 2026	1	$63	64	0	+64	No	+$0	08-09 21:54
us announces end of iranian blockade by august 22 2026	1	$63	63	0	+63	No	+$0	08-21 21:37
us announces end of iranian blockade by august 14 2026	1	$62	65	0	+65	No	+$3	08-12 16:29
Will Byron Donalds be the Republican nominee for Florida Governor?	1	$62	63	0	+63	Yes	+$1	08-18 22:12
will uzbekistan reach the round of 16 at the 2026 fifa world cup 20260602025120777	1	$62	63	0	+63	No	+$1	06-26 21:35
us announces end of iranian blockade by august 11 2026	1	$62	62	0	+62	No	+$0	08-11 04:17
EdgeX FDV above $500M one day after launch?	1	$62	62	0	+62	Yes	+$0	04-01 18:17
Billions FDV above $200M one day after launch?	1	$58	58	0	+58	Yes	+$0	05-05 11:15
Will Shri Thanedar be the Democratic Nominee for MI-13?	1	$53	57	0	+57	No	+$4	08-04 23:31
Will Bitcoin reach $77,500 in May?	1	$36	36	0	+36	No	+$0	05-31 21:52
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (HIGH) $800 in August?	1	$35	35	0	+35	No	+$0	08-31 14:12
will ethena dip to 0pt08 in march	1	$34	34	0	+34	No	+$0	04-01 01:41
GRVT FDV above $100M one day after launch?	1	$32	33	0	+33	Yes	+$1	07-28 04:51
Genius FDV above $20M one day after launch?	1	$30	30	0	+30	Yes	+$0	04-14 01:06
Will Gold (GC) hit (LOW) $3,800 by end of June?	2	$28	28	0	+28	No	+$0	06-29 18:36
Solstice FDV above $100M one day after launch?	1	$24	25	0	+25	Yes	+$1	05-25 19:05
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 22, 2026?	1	$23	24	0	+24	No	+$0	05-19 20:06
Iran closes its airspace by May 15?	1	$23	23	0	+23	No	+$1	05-15 04:25
Will Denmark advance through the second Eurovision Semi-Final?	1	$23	23	0	+23	Yes	+$0	05-10 09:15

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
11-04 00:24:07	Will the Republicans win the Texas Senate race in 2026?	No	SELL	136	75¢	$102	0x9f6724…
11-03 14:41:49	Will the Republicans win the Texas Senate race in 2026?	No	BUY	136	73¢	$99	0x620984…
10-28 10:58:28	Will Likud win 30-34 seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	No	SELL	118	96¢	$114	0xa44aa7…
10-28 10:55:55	Will Likud win 30-34 seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	No	SELL	0	96¢	$0	0x367824…
10-28 08:15:28	Will Likud win 30-34 seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	No	BUY	113	95¢	$107	0xf794db…
10-28 08:13:08	Will Likud win 30-34 seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	No	BUY	6	95¢	$6	0xa15a7b…
10-28 02:46:51	Will Likud win 30-34 seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	No	SELL	1	93¢	$1	0x8028d8…
10-28 02:46:36	Will Likud win 30-34 seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	No	SELL	6	93¢	$6	0x7448a8…
10-28 02:46:35	Will Likud win 30-34 seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	No	SELL	70	93¢	$65	0x5c8f35…
10-28 02:46:33	Will Likud win 30-34 seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	No	SELL	38	93¢	$35	0x52c0ea…
10-27 21:55:56	Will Likud win 30-34 seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	No	BUY	115	90¢	$104	0xcffda4…
10-27 13:38:23	Will Likud win 25-29 seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	No	BUY	3	87¢	$2	0x93a743…
10-25 23:43:35	Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Yes	BUY	117	97¢	$114	0xeaa2b6…
10-22 17:05:08	Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Yes	SELL	111	22¢	$24	0x20a1c7…
10-21 02:30:08	Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Yes	BUY	111	20¢	$22	0x0a399f…
10-14 23:44:04	Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Yes	BUY	18	83¢	$15	0xd5e250…
10-13 06:58:47	Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in October?	No	SELL	7	100¢	$7	0x292176…
10-10 14:01:24	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $130 in October?	No	BUY	6	99¢	$6	0x6642d0…
10-07 06:19:12	Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in October?	No	BUY	7	99¢	$7	0xb5a16e…
10-07 01:31:33	Variational FDV above $300M one day after launch?	Yes	BUY	16	95¢	$16	0x7d4070…
10-05 18:25:46	Will Tarcísio de Freitas win the 2026 São Paulo gubernatorial election?	Yes	SELL	66	100¢	$65	0xc0c2ff…
10-04 23:51:31	Will Tarcísio de Freitas win the 2026 São Paulo gubernatorial election?	Yes	BUY	66	100¢	$65	0xeba10f…
10-04 15:06:23	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $140 in October?	No	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0xf8cc01…
10-01 03:28:47	saudi oil pipeline east west restarts by september 30	No	BUY	74	100¢	$74	0x797390…
09-30 17:28:27	Will Alphabet be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on September 30?	Yes	SELL	64	100¢	$64	0xa80e0b…
09-30 14:06:53	Will Google have the best AI model at the end of September 2026?	No	SELL	6	100¢	$6	0xd411c7…
09-28 02:33:21	Will Alphabet be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on September 30?	Yes	BUY	64	100¢	$64	0x082a8d…
09-23 10:39:22	Will Google have the best AI model at the end of September 2026?	No	BUY	6	100¢	$6	0xf6a190…
09-22 11:45:03	Will Solana dip to $50 in September?	No	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0x8b411f…
09-14 15:03:55	Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 15?	No	BUY	71	99¢	$70	0x92fdd9…
09-09 23:58:42	Will Microsoft be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on September 30?	No	BUY	4	100¢	$4	0x4f6432…
09-07 12:18:24	US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 7, 2026?	No	SELL	75	100¢	$74	0xd0ab3c…
09-05 01:22:04	us announces end of iranian blockade by september 7 2026	No	BUY	75	99¢	$74	0x865d06…
09-01 03:51:19	US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 31, 2026?	No	SELL	24	100¢	$24	0x8dddf2…
08-31 16:33:33	Will Apple (AAPL) hit (HIGH) $344 in August?	No	SELL	5	100¢	$5	0x6ad2bf…
08-31 14:12:43	Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (HIGH) $800 in August?	No	BUY	35	100¢	$35	0x538258…
08-31 13:47:25	US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by August 31?	No	SELL	36	100¢	$36	0xe47447…
08-31 00:09:24	US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 31, 2026?	No	BUY	24	100¢	$24	0xb47702…
08-30 13:37:28	Will Apple (AAPL) hit (HIGH) $344 in August?	No	BUY	5	100¢	$5	0x471406…
08-27 17:45:58	US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 31, 2026?	No	SELL	30	97¢	$29	0xaa8208…
08-27 04:30:27	US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by August 31?	No	BUY	36	96¢	$34	0xa9489a…
08-25 08:51:33	Will the highest temperature in London be 30°C on August 26?	Yes	BUY	200	0¢	$0	0x95d3d0…
08-24 00:11:04	us announces end of iranian blockade by august 31 2026 20260713152715084 642 513 584 641 939 632 729	No	BUY	30	97¢	$29	0x19e7b8…
08-21 21:37:31	us announces end of iranian blockade by august 22 2026	No	BUY	63	100¢	$63	0xdc76cc…
08-18 22:12:06	Will Byron Donalds be the Republican nominee for Florida Governor?	Yes	BUY	63	99¢	$62	0x0e2ca6…
08-18 02:19:55	will bitcoin reach 80k in august 2026	No	BUY	3	99¢	$3	0x059585…
08-12 16:29:46	us announces end of iranian blockade by august 14 2026	No	BUY	65	96¢	$62	0xe87854…
08-11 04:17:55	us announces end of iranian blockade by august 11 2026	No	BUY	62	99¢	$62	0x57db17…
08-10 06:13:19	will bitcoin dip to 40k in august 2026	No	BUY	2	99¢	$2	0x346bd5…
08-09 21:54:31	us announces end of iranian blockade by august 9 2026	No	BUY	64	100¢	$63	0x94135e…
08-08 20:44:45	Will Microsoft be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on August 31?	No	BUY	3	100¢	$2	0x0aeeac…
08-06 13:26:12	us x iran diplomatic meeting by august 7 2026	No	BUY	66	100¢	$66	0x589466…
08-06 08:33:32	will wti reach 150 in august 2026	No	BUY	3	100¢	$3	0x991142…
08-04 23:31:50	Will Shri Thanedar be the Democratic Nominee for MI-13?	No	BUY	57	93¢	$53	0x31f5f6…
08-04 19:00:17	Will SpaceXAI have the best AI model at the end of August 2026?	No	BUY	2	100¢	$2	0x9b54b9…
08-03 18:51:27	Will Haley Stevens win the 2026 Michigan Democratic Primary?	No	BUY	12	98¢	$12	0x642752…
07-30 11:19:59	grvt fdv above 150m one day after launch	Yes	BUY	7	95¢	$7	0x4e6c44…
07-28 09:52:46	will nvda dip to 152 in july 2026	No	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0x6bb0cd…
07-28 04:51:07	GRVT FDV above $100M one day after launch?	Yes	BUY	33	96¢	$32	0x253aa5…
07-27 04:58:07	will spy reach 800 in july 2026	No	BUY	7	99¢	$7	0x8ddb7a…
07-26 23:44:57	will googl dip to 280 in july 2026	No	BUY	6	99¢	$6	0x44cfb6…
07-24 03:48:37	Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on July 31?	No	BUY	2	100¢	$2	0x08f1e8…
07-24 01:54:09	will xauusd dip to 3600 in july 2026	No	BUY	1	99¢	$1	0xfb7b9e…
07-23 23:40:42	Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on July 31?	No	BUY	2	100¢	$2	0x35da69…
07-22 02:36:33	will xauusd dip to 3500 in july 2026	No	BUY	1	99¢	$1	0x376749…
07-21 13:40:15	will ethereum dip to 1100 in july 2026	No	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0xf4c140…
07-21 03:56:07	will xagusd dip to 44 in july 2026	No	BUY	2	100¢	$2	0xbe8a67…
07-17 12:13:00	will bitcoin reach 77pt5k in july 2026	No	BUY	3	99¢	$3	0x55556a…
07-17 02:31:04	will xauusd dip to 3400 in july 2026	No	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0x58830e…
07-16 17:51:29	will bitcoin reach 82pt5k in july 2026	No	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0xa2833e…
06-29 18:36:14	Will Gold (GC) hit (LOW) $3,800 by end of June?	No	BUY	17	100¢	$17	0xeda41f…
06-28 23:24:13	will xauusd reach 4600 in june 2026	No	BUY	5	100¢	$4	0x6ba223…
06-28 22:04:25	will openais valuation hit high 900b by june 30	No	BUY	5	99¢	$5	0x149b0e…
06-28 20:57:46	Will OpenAI have the third best AI model at the end of June 2026?	No	BUY	5	100¢	$5	0x105741…
06-28 15:06:35	Will OpenAI have the third best AI model at the end of June 2026?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$7	0x1c6512…
06-28 12:13:25	will wti crude oil wti hit high 105 in june	No	BUY	13	100¢	$13	0x6507d0…
06-28 11:29:14	Will Gold (GC) hit (LOW) $3,800 by end of June?	No	BUY	11	99¢	$11	0xbb579e…
06-26 21:35:28	will uzbekistan reach the round of 16 at the 2026 fifa world cup 20260602025120777	No	BUY	63	99¢	$62	0x157d74…
06-26 13:34:52	will openais valuation hit high 1pt1t by june 30	No	BUY	3	99¢	$3	0x9bcde2…
05-31 21:52:40	Will Bitcoin reach $77,500 in May?	No	BUY	36	100¢	$36	0x7658b4…
05-30 16:11:26	Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of May 2026?	Yes	BUY	16	100¢	$16	0x8924f1…
05-28 16:29:31	Will NVIDIA be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on May 31?	No	BUY	20	100¢	$20	0x67dfa1…
05-27 09:35:00	Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (HIGH) $256 in May?	No	BUY	5	100¢	$5	0x199de7…
05-25 19:05:07	Solstice FDV above $100M one day after launch?	Yes	BUY	25	96¢	$24	0xdc14ef…
05-19 20:06:14	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 22, 2026?	No	BUY	24	98¢	$23	0x1d5606…
05-15 04:25:06	Iran closes its airspace by May 15?	No	BUY	23	97¢	$23	0x3a5f0e…
05-10 09:15:24	Will Denmark advance through the second Eurovision Semi-Final?	Yes	BUY	23	100¢	$23	0x5485c9…
05-10 06:08:00	Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of May 2026?	No	BUY	5	100¢	$5	0x3d63fd…
05-10 03:27:14	Will Solana reach $170 in May?	No	BUY	5	99¢	$5	0x42a3a2…
05-10 01:33:15	Will Microsoft be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on May 31?	No	BUY	4	100¢	$4	0xf64564…
05-09 07:50:41	Will Solana reach $160 in May?	No	BUY	6	99¢	$5	0x8bc279…
05-09 03:19:23	Will Bitcoin reach $105,000 in May?	No	BUY	3	99¢	$3	0xc16c02…
05-08 13:35:10	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $50 in May?	No	BUY	4	99¢	$4	0x3c82f7…
05-08 01:59:34	Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of May 2026?	No	BUY	2	100¢	$2	0x8f1740…
05-07 04:29:23	Will Solana reach $160 in May?	No	BUY	3	100¢	$3	0xfcea6e…
05-06 11:01:06	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $20 in May?	No	BUY	3	100¢	$3	0xdae88c…
05-06 08:34:14	Will Solana dip to $50 in May?	No	BUY	5	99¢	$5	0x27cf3c…
05-05 16:25:44	Billions FDV above $700M one day after launch?	No	BUY	5	99¢	$5	0x5be454…
05-05 11:15:52	Billions FDV above $200M one day after launch?	Yes	BUY	58	100¢	$58	0xa5f5b6…
04-29 08:42:04	megaeth market cap fdv 4b one day after launch 484 688 448 486 873 133 182	No	BUY	3	96¢	$3	0x72e0ed…