Large-Gherkin — Polymarket

Realized P&L (90d)

+$398

Unrealized P&L

+$410

Hit rate

58.0%

Resolved (90d)

Trades (90d)

60 lifetime

Volume (90d)

$9.41K

$49.9K lifetime

Avg / trade

$832

Open exposure

$8.96K

4 positions

First seen

2026-01-04

last 10-25 13:37

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 18 days

Categories

Other

43% 78% +$2,386

Politics

36% 33% -$265

Tech

18% 75% +$538

Sports

3% 50% +$208

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

3 active days in 12wk • peak 4 trades/day

Open positions (4) Resolved markets (21) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
US-Iran ceasefire continues through the midterms?	Yes	+3,836	$3,000	89¢	$3.4K	+$414	10-25 13:35
Iran leadership change by December 31?	No	+3,488	$3,000	86¢	$3.0K	-$17	10-25 13:34
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?	No	+1,633	$1,555	97¢	$1.6K	+$25	10-25 13:37
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026?	Yes	+1,156	$1,000	85¢	$988	-$12	10-25 13:37

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	3	$10.7K	5,924	5,924	+0	No	+$818	07-01 00:10
us x iran ceasefire by march 31	7	$9.1K	6,238	5,524	+714	No	-$218	03-25 16:46
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of July 2026?	2	$6.3K	3,305	3,305	+0	Yes	+$262	07-21 08:25
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?	1	$4.9K	0	4,938	-4,938	No	-$30	06-16 16:53
Iran leadership change by December 31?	1	$3.0K	3,488	0	+3,488	open	—	10-25 13:34
US-Iran ceasefire continues through the midterms?	1	$3.0K	3,836	0	+3,836	open	—	10-25 13:35
Will fewer than 100 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between July 13-July 19?	1	$2.0K	2,219	0	+2,219	Yes	+$219	07-14 21:08
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?	1	$1.6K	1,633	0	+1,633	open	—	10-25 13:37
Will Jannik Sinner be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner?	2	$1.4K	909	909	+0	Yes	+$408	07-12 21:50
will anthropic ipo by december 31 2026 546 128	2	$1.2K	794	794	+0	open	—	09-16 14:45
us x iran ceasefire by march 15	3	$1.1K	699	524	+175	No	-$17	03-09 20:05
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026?	1	$1.0K	1,156	0	+1,156	open	—	10-25 13:37
Will fewer than 150 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between July 6-July 12?	1	$1000	1,459	0	+1,459	Yes	+$459	07-11 21:31
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	3	$782	700	256	+444	No	+$161	05-26 23:33
will claude fable 5 be restored for us customers by july 1 20260613193829179 129 881 748 432 345 931 774	9	$652	1,590	1,590	+0	Yes	-$65	07-01 00:19
Will the next Claude Opus model be released on July 23, 2026?	1	$500	751	0	+751	No	+$251	07-20 22:03
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?	5	$439	530	0	+530	Yes	+$91	06-04 23:43
Will there be between 0 and 20 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on July 31?	2	$276	874	0	+874	Yes	+$598	07-11 23:59
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30?	1	$212	265	0	+265	Yes	+$53	05-26 23:38
Will Carlos Alcaraz win the 2026 Men's US Open?	1	$200	571	0	+571	No	-$200	09-01 06:32
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30?	1	$195	250	0	+250	No	+$55	03-09 00:05
US forces enter Iran by December 31?	2	$171	100	100	+0	Yes	+$29	04-05 05:01
will another country strike iran by march 31 833	2	$155	450	338	+112	No	-$61	03-25 09:17
will doordash report 900 million or more total orders in q4 2025	4	$60	200	0	+200	Yes	+$140	02-18 12:13
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 31?	2	$51	135	0	+135	No	-$51	05-26 23:32
will doordash report between 875 million and 900 million total orders in q4 2025	1	$36	100	0	+100	No	-$36	01-04 10:02

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
10-25 13:37:42	Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?	No	BUY	1,633	95¢	$1,555	0xef4742…
10-25 13:37:23	Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026?	Yes	BUY	1,156	86¢	$1,000	0x6dea2f…
10-25 13:35:35	US-Iran ceasefire continues through the midterms?	Yes	BUY	3,836	78¢	$3,000	0xd622aa…
10-25 13:34:21	Iran leadership change by December 31?	No	BUY	3,488	86¢	$3,000	0x093f1a…
09-16 14:45:43	Will Anthropic IPO by December 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	794	82¢	$651	0x99992b…
09-01 06:32:21	Will Carlos Alcaraz win the 2026 Men's US Open?	Yes	BUY	571	35¢	$200	0x061b82…
07-21 08:25:28	Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of July 2026?	Yes	SELL	3,305	99¢	$3,262	0x4def4e…
07-20 22:03:24	Will the next Claude Opus model be released on July 23, 2026?	No	BUY	751	67¢	$500	0x280e52…
07-14 21:08:55	Will fewer than 100 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between July 13-July 19?	Yes	BUY	2,219	90¢	$2,000	0xafa811…
07-12 21:50:22	Will Jannik Sinner be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner?	Yes	SELL	909	100¢	$908	0x479452…
07-11 23:59:44	Will there be between 0 and 20 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on July 31?	Yes	BUY	300	42¢	$126	0x77ceb5…
07-11 21:35:49	will anthropic ipo by december 31 2026 546 128	Yes	BUY	794	63¢	$500	0x66dc69…
07-11 21:31:14	Will fewer than 150 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between July 6-July 12?	Yes	BUY	1,459	69¢	$1,000	0x8bdcc8…
07-11 21:24:07	Will there be between 0 and 20 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on July 31?	Yes	BUY	574	26¢	$150	0xc907c0…
07-03 13:17:58	Will Jannik Sinner be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner?	Yes	BUY	909	55¢	$500	0x627ce9…
07-03 13:15:07	Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of July 2026?	Yes	BUY	3,305	91¢	$3,000	0xad8ef2…
07-01 00:19:07	will claude fable 5 be restored for us customers by july 1 20260613193829179 129 881 748 432 345 931 774	No	SELL	1,250	9¢	$116	0xbe9622…
07-01 00:13:44	will claude fable 5 be restored for us customers by july 1 20260613193829179 129 881 748 432 345 931 774	No	BUY	1,250	8¢	$100	0x1d6ee5…
07-01 00:10:31	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	No	SELL	2,962	99¢	$2,944	0x16695a…
06-26 22:08:50	will claude fable 5 be restored for us customers by july 1 20260613193829179 129 881 748 432 345 931 774	Yes	SELL	196	40¢	$79	0x54564b…
06-26 22:07:59	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	No	SELL	2,962	94¢	$2,791	0x5e7185…
06-20 23:15:01	will claude fable 5 be restored for us customers by july 1 20260613193829179 129 881 748 432 345	Yes	SELL	62	69¢	$43	0x9b109d…
06-20 23:14:53	will claude fable 5 be restored for us customers by july 1 20260613193829179 129 881 748 432 345	Yes	SELL	82	69¢	$56	0xd9be77…
06-16 16:54:20	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	No	BUY	5,924	83¢	$4,917	0x10eed4…
06-16 16:53:17	Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?	No	SELL	4,938	99¢	$4,909	0x342542…
06-16 00:24:48	Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1?	Yes	BUY	61	76¢	$47	0x4bbaf9…
06-16 00:16:37	will claude fable 5 be restored for us customers by july 1 20260613193829179 129 881 748 432 345	Yes	BUY	208	76¢	$158	0x736793…
06-16 00:10:01	Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1?	Yes	BUY	4	76¢	$3	0xb36ae5…
06-15 23:57:30	will claude fable 5 be restored for us customers by july 1 20260613193829179 129 881 748 432 345	Yes	BUY	66	76¢	$50	0x8e24fe…
06-04 23:43:16	Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?	Yes	BUY	50	83¢	$42	0x0a0e30…
06-04 23:10:21	Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?	Yes	BUY	15	83¢	$12	0xf44fab…
06-04 23:08:55	Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?	Yes	BUY	15	83¢	$12	0x451d5f…
06-04 21:02:40	Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?	Yes	BUY	55	83¢	$45	0xa6d651…
06-04 21:00:16	Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?	Yes	BUY	395	83¢	$328	0x7ce090…
05-26 23:38:54	US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30?	Yes	BUY	265	80¢	$212	0x8d308a…
05-26 23:33:07	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	No	SELL	172	97¢	$168	0x8ca850…
05-26 23:32:22	US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 31?	Yes	BUY	100	38¢	$38	0xbe2d78…
05-26 23:31:36	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	No	SELL	84	98¢	$82	0xaba55d…
05-26 23:30:49	US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 31?	Yes	BUY	35	38¢	$13	0x7ae901…
05-09 10:52:48	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	No	BUY	700	76¢	$532	0x17a8b3…
04-05 05:01:31	US forces enter Iran by December 31?	Yes	SELL	100	100¢	$100	0xf0495b…
03-25 16:46:17	us x iran ceasefire by march 31	Yes	BUY	714	14¢	$100	0xe13e72…
03-25 16:44:23	us x iran ceasefire by march 31	No	SELL	4,899	87¢	$4,259	0x838b15…
03-25 09:17:41	will another country strike iran by march 31 833	Yes	SELL	338	14¢	$47	0xbd273d…
03-22 13:27:39	us x iran ceasefire by march 31	No	BUY	4,328	90¢	$3,895	0x19baa6…
03-22 12:58:03	us x iran ceasefire by march 31	No	BUY	371	91¢	$338	0x8c402f…
03-14 17:11:35	US forces enter Iran by December 31?	Yes	BUY	100	71¢	$71	0xc519fa…
03-14 17:11:03	will another country strike iran by march 31 833	Yes	BUY	450	24¢	$108	0x0c47cc…
03-10 22:45:49	us x iran ceasefire by march 31	No	BUY	200	69¢	$138	0x9560fd…
03-10 22:43:45	us x iran ceasefire by march 31	Yes	SELL	625	31¢	$194	0x9d0c74…
03-10 22:30:57	us x iran ceasefire by march 31	Yes	BUY	625	32¢	$200	0x9af20c…
03-09 20:05:17	us x iran ceasefire by march 15	No	SELL	524	87¢	$456	0xa6dce0…
03-09 00:05:51	Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30?	No	BUY	250	78¢	$195	0x45a7ed…
03-07 18:55:27	us x iran ceasefire by march 15	No	BUY	168	93¢	$156	0x315486…
03-07 18:43:25	us x iran ceasefire by march 15	No	BUY	531	93¢	$492	0x0f6b54…
02-18 12:13:50	will doordash report 900 million or more total orders in q4 2025	Yes	BUY	168	30¢	$50	0xbdd54f…
01-04 13:03:39	will doordash report 900 million or more total orders in q4 2025	Yes	BUY	5	30¢	$2	0x7e0118…
01-04 13:00:11	will doordash report 900 million or more total orders in q4 2025	Yes	BUY	15	30¢	$4	0x0aaa04…
01-04 10:02:27	will doordash report between 875 million and 900 million total orders in q4 2025	Yes	BUY	100	36¢	$36	0x5f827f…
01-04 10:02:15	will doordash report 900 million or more total orders in q4 2025	Yes	BUY	12	30¢	$4	0xfc4ca7…