Improbable-Dhow — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$1.80K

Unrealized P&L

+$1

Hit rate

54.6%

Resolved

18,541

Trades

43,691

lifetime

Volume

$101.0K

lifetime

Avg / trade

Open exposure

2 positions

First seen

2026-02-09

last 10-26 08:44

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 97 days

Categories

Crypto

95% 51% -$1,797

Other

4% 67% -$51

Politics

1% 55% +$22

Sports

0% 100% +$32

Pop-Culture

0% 100% +$4

Tech

0% 43% -$7

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

23 active days in 12wk • peak 640 trades/day

Open positions (2) Resolved markets (29) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will Lorne Doerkson be the next Premier of British Columbia?	Yes		+5	$5	95¢	$5	$0	10-26 08:33
Saudi Arabia military action against Yemen on October 29?	Yes		+5	$3	84¢	$4	+$1	10-22 14:36

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-06-05 10:00 UTC	156	$394	1,603	0	+1,603	Down	+$426	06-05 10:04
Will Apple (AAPL) hit (HIGH) $356 Week of October 19 2026?	3	$394	458	0	+458	No	+$64	10-23 16:31
lol vdn bld 2026 03 05 game2	2	$358	359	0	+359	Verdant	+$1	03-05 18:57
cwbb mcnst txam 2026 03 19	4	$354	183	183	+0	McNeese State Cowboys	+$9	04-03 11:16
highest temperature in seattle on march 19 2026 54 55f	2	$331	332	0	+332	Yes	+$1	03-20 07:14
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-06-05 08:15 UTC	66	$190	803	0	+803	Down	-$190	06-05 08:15
cwbb loutch rice 2026 03 19	4	$181	193	0	+193	Rice Owls	+$11	03-22 20:35
Will Team Falcons Win the RLCS 2026 World Championship?	1	$175	176	0	+176	Yes	+$2	09-23 11:46
cs2 k271 oxuji 2026 03 09 game2 odd even total kills	1	$134	135	0	+135	Even	+$2	03-10 13:55
cs2 havu imperi 2026 03 09 game1 odd even total kills	1	$104	105	0	+105	Odd	+$2	03-10 11:21
cs2 havu imperi 2026 03 09 game2 odd even total kills	1	$104	105	0	+105	Odd	+$2	03-10 11:22
ETH Up/Down 5m · 2026-04-10 20:05 UTC	11	$101	86	92	-6	Up	+$21	04-10 20:06
cs2 33 g2a 2026 03 04 game2	1	$101	101	0	+101	33	+$0	03-04 17:48
highest temperature in seattle on march 19 2026 56 57f	1	$100	100	0	+100	No	+$0	03-20 07:12
lol es1 use1 2026 03 05 game1 first blood	1	$99	100	0	+100	Unicorns Of Love Sexy Edition	+$1	03-05 19:09
nba mem bkn 2026 03 09 rebounds nicolas claxton 7pt5	1	$99	100	0	+100	Yes	+$1	03-10 07:51
us strikes iran by february 9 2026 113 751	3	$97	100	0	+100	No	+$3	02-09 20:45
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-04-15 12:15 UTC	56	$92	194	0	+194	Up	+$10	04-15 12:15
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET	52	$84	335	0	+335	Down	+$90	06-01 05:24
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET	45	$81	301	0	+301	Up	+$20	06-01 05:13
Will South Korea ETF (EWY) hit (LOW) $159 Week of October 12 2026?	1	$78	80	0	+80	Yes	+$2	10-15 09:58
Israel military action against Lebanon on October 19?	2	$75	100	0	+100	Yes	+$25	10-10 15:51
will anna leigh waters ben johns win the 2026 ppa zimmer biomet cape coral open mixed doubles tournament	3	$74	83	0	+83	Yes	+$9	02-17 12:28
will trump say greenland during meetings with chancellor merz	1	$68	68	0	+68	No	+$1	03-03 19:55
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-06-09 23:40 UTC	10	$65	103	60	+43	Up	+$38	06-09 23:39
Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.50% in October?	1	$61	85	0	+85	open	—	10-09 09:54
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-31 16:30 UTC	16	$58	133	0	+133	Down	+$9	03-31 16:32
SOL Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-31 16:25 UTC	17	$58	133	0	+133	Down	+$9	03-31 16:25
ETH Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-31 16:25 UTC	17	$57	131	0	+131	Down	+$8	03-31 16:25
XRP Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-31 16:25 UTC	19	$56	130	0	+130	Down	+$7	03-31 16:25

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
10-26 08:44:47	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $88,000 on October 28?	Yes	BUY	200	0¢	$1	0xbb8a73…
10-26 08:44:24	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $92,000 on October 28?	No	BUY	5	99¢	$5	0xb8c921…
10-26 08:42:56	Houthi military action against Saudi Arabia on October 31?	No	BUY	5	58¢	$3	0xe31af7…
10-26 08:42:51	Houthi military action against Saudi Arabia on October 27?	Yes	BUY	5	34¢	$2	0x5790f2…
10-26 08:41:21	Will Bitcoin have 1 green days the week of October 19?	No	BUY	5	88¢	$4	0x64825c…
10-26 08:39:12	Will "You Can See Everything" 2nd Weekend Box Office be between $19.5M and $21M?	Yes	BUY	12	9¢	$1	0xa4a442…
10-26 08:36:39	Will "Clayface" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 22m and 25m?	Yes	BUY	5	99¢	$5	0xfa29c2…
10-26 08:33:23	Will Lorne Doerkson be the next Premier of British Columbia?	Yes	BUY	5	98¢	$5	0xec7b1a…
10-25 14:45:53	Will Trump say "AI" or "Artificial Intelligence" during his Midterm Rally in Michigan?	No	BUY	5	80¢	$4	0xe382bc…
10-24 19:44:51	Will Supertf win Gamer of the Year at the 2026 Streamer Awards?	Yes	BUY	24	2¢	$0	0x58c3ef…
10-24 19:44:17	Will Feinberg win Gamer of the Year at the 2026 Streamer Awards?	Yes	BUY	24	2¢	$0	0x3f37e0…
10-24 19:43:12	Will Crimson Desert win Game of the Year at the 2026 Game Awards?	Yes	BUY	8	1¢	$0	0x91686a…
10-24 19:41:24	Will the Republican Party hold 190 or more House seats after the 2026 midterm elections?	Yes	BUY	5	61¢	$3	0xd80daf…
10-23 16:32:00	Will Apple (AAPL) hit (HIGH) $352 Week of October 19 2026?	Yes	BUY	215	13¢	$28	0x56034d…
10-23 16:31:50	Will Apple (AAPL) hit (HIGH) $352 Week of October 19 2026?	Yes	BUY	6	12¢	$1	0xff2524…
10-23 16:31:50	Will Apple (AAPL) hit (HIGH) $356 Week of October 19 2026?	No	BUY	6	86¢	$5	0x5c8ba2…
10-23 16:31:45	Will Apple (AAPL) hit (HIGH) $352 Week of October 19 2026?	Yes	BUY	36	12¢	$4	0xe6e6ef…
10-23 16:31:42	Will Apple (AAPL) hit (HIGH) $356 Week of October 19 2026?	No	BUY	260	86¢	$224	0x89bc1f…
10-23 16:31:42	Will Apple (AAPL) hit (HIGH) $356 Week of October 19 2026?	No	BUY	192	86¢	$165	0x778cc6…
10-23 16:31:42	Will Apple (AAPL) hit (HIGH) $352 Week of October 19 2026?	Yes	BUY	117	11¢	$13	0x13c866…
10-23 14:40:57	Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $3,750 Week of October 19 2026?	No	BUY	17	99¢	$17	0xf520fa…
10-23 14:40:57	Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $3,850 Week of October 19 2026?	Yes	BUY	17	0¢	$0	0xee5ff7…
10-23 10:11:48	Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on October 27, 2026?	No	BUY	35	3¢	$1	0xd466ec…
10-23 10:11:36	Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on October 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	5	92¢	$5	0x8946ac…
10-23 10:11:14	Will Russia target Kyiv on October 26, 2026?	No	BUY	9	12¢	$1	0x84071a…
10-23 10:10:57	Will Russia target Kyiv on October 25, 2026?	Yes	BUY	5	85¢	$4	0x986093…
10-23 10:10:38	Houthi military action against Saudi Arabia on October 24?	No	BUY	5	38¢	$2	0xabf22c…
10-23 10:10:33	Houthi military action against Saudi Arabia on October 25?	Yes	BUY	5	33¢	$2	0x25eb95…
10-23 10:09:36	Saudi Arabia military action against Yemen on October 27?	No	BUY	5	33¢	$2	0x6c2bd5…
10-23 10:09:33	Saudi Arabia military action against Yemen on October 25?	Yes	BUY	5	52¢	$3	0xaa1c91…
10-23 09:16:11	Will Micron Technology, Inc. (MU) hit (LOW) $690 Week of October 19 2026?	No	BUY	10	99¢	$10	0x1cef33…
10-23 09:16:11	Will Micron Technology, Inc. (MU) hit (LOW) $750 Week of October 19 2026?	Yes	BUY	10	1¢	$0	0x08a840…
10-22 16:50:44	Will Meta (META) close above $680 on October 22?	No	BUY	5	99¢	$5	0x553892…
10-22 16:50:42	Will Meta (META) close above $670 on October 22?	Yes	BUY	5	1¢	$0	0x9dcc0e…
10-22 14:42:44	Will the Pittsburgh Penguins win the 2026-27 NHL Metropolitan Division?	Yes	BUY	31	0¢	$0	0xddc5b7…
10-22 14:36:44	Saudi Arabia military action against Yemen on October 28?	No	BUY	5	35¢	$2	0x57746c…
10-22 14:36:42	Saudi Arabia military action against Yemen on October 29?	Yes	BUY	5	60¢	$3	0xc6c312…
10-21 19:16:06	Will Trump say "Drill Baby Drill" during his Midterm Rally in South Carolina? (copy)	No	BUY	5	80¢	$4	0x1030d8…
10-20 08:26:40	Will the USS Theodore Roosevelt arrive in CENTCOM by October 31, 2026?	No	BUY	5	94¢	$5	0x5facf9…
10-20 08:26:31	Will the USS Theodore Roosevelt arrive in CENTCOM by November 3, 2026?	Yes	BUY	9	12¢	$1	0x675886…
10-20 08:24:20	Will Bitcoin have 2 green days the week of October 12?	No	BUY	4	98¢	$4	0x767aaa…
10-20 08:23:52	Will Bitcoin have 2 green days the week of October 12?	No	BUY	5	98¢	$5	0x2e5ecc…
10-19 07:57:57	Will Mike Quigley win the 2027 Chicago mayoral election?	Yes	BUY	10	0¢	$0	0x29c605…
10-19 07:57:03	Will Luis Díaz score the most goals in the 2026-27 UEFA Champions League?	Yes	BUY	91	0¢	$0	0x19e89b…
10-19 07:53:47	Will "Street Fighter" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 30m and 33m?	Yes	BUY	5	99¢	$5	0xb773f4…
10-19 07:53:20	Will "Sense and Sensibility" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 7m and 8m?	Yes	BUY	5	99¢	$5	0x9835ff…
10-19 07:52:38	Will "The Social Reckoning" 2nd Weekend Box Office be between 1m and 2m?	Yes	BUY	9	99¢	$9	0x0a1a0c…
10-17 13:40:27	Israel military action against Lebanon on October 28?	No	BUY	10	11¢	$1	0x162a29…
10-17 13:40:15	Israel military action against Lebanon on October 29?	Yes	BUY	5	72¢	$4	0xba1cde…
10-17 13:39:44	Will Russia target Kyiv on October 29, 2026?	Yes	BUY	5	73¢	$4	0xfacab9…
10-17 13:39:30	Will Russia target Kyiv on October 18, 2026?	No	BUY	12	9¢	$1	0x4f844b…
10-17 13:38:57	Saudi Arabia military action against Yemen on October 20?	No	BUY	5	27¢	$1	0xeced93…
10-17 13:38:42	Saudi Arabia military action against Yemen on October 31?	Yes	BUY	5	49¢	$2	0x3e49f1…
10-17 13:38:14	Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on October 18, 2026?	Yes	BUY	5	89¢	$4	0xeefab6…
10-17 13:38:08	Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on October 19, 2026?	No	BUY	35	3¢	$1	0x7c8849…
10-15 17:26:32	Will South Korea ETF (EWY) hit (HIGH) $183 Week of October 12 2026?	Yes	BUY	40	4¢	$2	0x912df0…
10-15 17:26:31	Will South Korea ETF (EWY) hit (HIGH) $167 Week of October 12 2026?	Yes	BUY	40	3¢	$1	0x64810e…
10-15 17:26:31	Will South Korea ETF (EWY) hit (HIGH) $167 Week of October 12 2026?	Yes	BUY	33	3¢	$1	0x1e993a…
10-15 14:53:19	Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,000 Week of October 12 2026?	Yes	BUY	5	6¢	$0	0x944787…
10-15 14:15:02	Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (HIGH) $65 Week of October 12 2026?	Yes	BUY	10	1¢	$0	0xb8d5ec…
10-15 14:15:02	Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (HIGH) $67 Week of October 12 2026?	No	BUY	5	98¢	$5	0x7bc43d…
10-15 14:15:02	Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (HIGH) $66 Week of October 12 2026?	Yes	BUY	5	1¢	$0	0x41f0c7…
10-15 14:15:02	Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (HIGH) $67 Week of October 12 2026?	No	BUY	10	98¢	$10	0x415a93…
10-15 14:03:23	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $90 Week of October 12 2026?	Yes	BUY	30	10¢	$3	0xef858f…
10-15 13:57:28	Will South Korea ETF (EWY) hit (HIGH) $172 Week of October 12 2026?	Yes	BUY	20	0¢	$0	0xf1b399…
10-15 13:57:28	Will South Korea ETF (EWY) hit (HIGH) $178 Week of October 12 2026?	No	BUY	20	99¢	$20	0x6e2810…
10-15 13:54:55	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $85 Week of October 12 2026?	No	BUY	13	87¢	$11	0xe404d4…
10-15 13:54:55	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $90 Week of October 12 2026?	Yes	BUY	13	11¢	$1	0x598f8d…
10-15 13:54:53	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $85 Week of October 12 2026?	No	BUY	20	87¢	$17	0x2cd784…
10-15 13:54:53	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $85 Week of October 12 2026?	No	BUY	20	87¢	$17	0x25f520…
10-15 13:49:35	Will South Korea ETF (EWY) hit (HIGH) $174 Week of October 12 2026?	No	BUY	33	97¢	$32	0xe4e044…
10-15 13:49:35	Will South Korea ETF (EWY) hit (HIGH) $168 Week of October 12 2026?	Yes	BUY	33	2¢	$1	0x756472…
10-15 11:53:59	Will Trump's approval rating be at least 37.0 on October 16, 2026?	Yes	BUY	44	81¢	$36	0x883ae7…
10-15 11:53:59	trump approval rating at least 37pt4 on october 16 2026	No	BUY	44	10¢	$4	0x410524…
10-15 11:39:16	Will Robinhood Markets, Inc. (HOOD) hit (HIGH) $125 Week of October 12 2026?	No	BUY	6	97¢	$6	0x9253b7…
10-15 11:39:16	Will Robinhood Markets, Inc. (HOOD) hit (HIGH) $122.50 Week of October 12 2026?	Yes	BUY	6	1¢	$0	0x663975…
10-15 11:18:15	Israel military action against Lebanon on October 28?	No	BUY	9	12¢	$1	0xaf09a7…
10-15 11:18:03	Israel military action against Lebanon on October 27?	Yes	BUY	5	73¢	$4	0x7539f4…
10-15 11:16:58	Saudi Arabia military action against Yemen on October 18?	No	BUY	5	23¢	$1	0xc2cb04…
10-15 11:16:48	Saudi Arabia military action against Yemen on October 17?	Yes	BUY	5	52¢	$3	0x6884d1…
10-15 11:16:24	Will Ukraine target Moscow on October 16, 2026?	No	BUY	7	15¢	$1	0x410f00…
10-15 11:16:10	Will Ukraine target Moscow on October 17, 2026?	Yes	BUY	5	65¢	$3	0xe41c17…
10-15 11:14:18	Will Alejandro Davidovich Fokina win the 2026 Shanghai, China?	Yes	BUY	0	10¢	$0	0x6df0cc…
10-15 11:13:07	Will Yuri Yoshida win the 2026 Buick LPGA Shanghai?	Yes	BUY	50	2¢	$1	0x95284e…
10-15 11:08:01	Will there be under 25 tornadoes in the US in September 2026?	No	BUY	5	99¢	$5	0xe0cbe1…
10-15 11:04:27	Will Team Mar Win the Jynxzi LoL Tournament?	Yes	BUY	5	99¢	$5	0x5df602…
10-15 10:42:58	Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $740 Week of October 12 2026?	No	BUY	40	97¢	$39	0xdfc371…
10-15 10:42:58	Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $745 Week of October 12 2026?	Yes	BUY	40	1¢	$0	0x1c49a1…
10-15 09:58:59	Will South Korea ETF (EWY) hit (LOW) $159 Week of October 12 2026?	Yes	BUY	80	97¢	$78	0x1b7f2b…
10-15 09:58:58	Will South Korea ETF (EWY) hit (LOW) $158 Week of October 12 2026?	No	BUY	80	1¢	$1	0x59d94e…
10-15 09:34:22	Will Robinhood Markets, Inc. (HOOD) hit (HIGH) $125 Week of October 12 2026?	No	BUY	20	98¢	$20	0xc1577b…
10-15 09:34:20	Will Robinhood Markets, Inc. (HOOD) hit (HIGH) $120 Week of October 12 2026?	Yes	BUY	20	1¢	$0	0xc11ec7…
10-14 09:58:53	Will Jynxzi reach Gold rank in League of Legends by October 16, 2026?	No	SELL	5	73¢	$4	0xaa1dfd…
10-14 09:58:49	Will the 30-year Treasury yield hit 6.00% in October?	Yes	SELL	50	2¢	$1	0x2927af…
10-14 09:58:41	Saudi Arabia military action against Yemen on October 6?	Yes	SELL	10	68¢	$7	0x4903b7…
10-14 08:24:32	Will Netflix, Inc. (NFLX) hit (LOW) $62.50 Week of October 12 2026?	No	BUY	10	98¢	$10	0x297a86…
10-14 08:24:31	Will Netflix, Inc. (NFLX) hit (LOW) $65 Week of October 12 2026?	Yes	BUY	10	1¢	$0	0x86760f…
10-13 14:54:53	Will Dan S. Sullivan win the 2026 Alaska Senate first round by 0%-3%?	Yes	BUY	6	19¢	$1	0xb5ef42…
10-13 14:52:07	Will OpenAI announce that it has resumed training on October 20, 2026?	No	BUY	5	94¢	$5	0x5d47c4…
10-13 14:52:01	Will OpenAI announce that it has resumed training on October 17, 2026?	Yes	BUY	100	2¢	$2	0xc46567…