Exalted-Airbag — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$554

Unrealized P&L

+$2

Hit rate

79.1%

Resolved

Trades

144

lifetime

Volume

$33.6K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$233

Open exposure

$21

2 positions

First seen

2026-01-27

last 10-16 03:36

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 36 days

Categories

Crypto

44% 92% +$15

Politics

28% 67% -$4

Other

19% 91% +$18

Sports

8% 65% -$583

Tech

0% 100% +$0

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

3 active days in 12wk • peak 2 trades/day

Open positions (2) Resolved markets (26) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Variational FDV above $100M one day after launch?	Yes		+22	$21	96¢	$21	+$0	07-07 17:16
Will JB Pritzker win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	No		+0	-$2	99¢	$0	+$2	07-09 13:13

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
will xrp reach 3pt4 in february 2026	2	$4.0K	2,024	2,024	+0	No	$0	02-14 03:22
Will JB Pritzker win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	18	$3.1K	1,576	1,576	+0	open	—	07-09 13:13
Will Roy Cooper win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	2	$3.1K	1,561	1,561	+0	open	—	05-14 07:32
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?	2	$2.3K	1,152	1,152	+0	open	—	05-25 02:55
will bitcoin reach 120k in february 2026	3	$2.3K	1,138	1,138	+0	No	+$1	02-15 03:19
will silver si hit high 150 by end of march	4	$2.0K	1,013	1,013	+0	No	+$2	03-22 08:32
will ethereum reach 3800 in february 2026	1	$2.0K	2,004	0	+2,004	No	+$4	02-23 11:40
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2026 NBA Finals?	39	$1.7K	868	868	+0	No	+$1	02-15 10:07
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $230 by end of June?	4	$1.6K	1,588	0	+1,588	No	+$6	06-18 10:59
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 meeting?	1	$1.6K	1,561	0	+1,561	Yes	+$2	04-27 02:10
Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 in May?	1	$1.4K	1,451	0	+1,451	No	+$1	05-25 02:56
will bitcoin reach 125k in february 2026	3	$1.4K	707	707	+0	No	+$1	02-03 11:59
will ethereum reach 6000 in january 2026	1	$1.2K	1,206	0	+1,206	No	+$2	01-27 02:42
will bitcoin reach 150k in march 2026	1	$1.0K	1,008	0	+1,008	No	+$1	03-25 07:31
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?	2	$703	355	355	+0	open	—	05-25 02:55
nba nop hou 2026 03 13	1	$695	2,321	0	+2,321	Rockets	-$695	03-13 05:57
will ethereum reach 4600 in january 2026	1	$640	641	0	+641	No	+$1	01-27 02:41
will bitcoin reach 105k in march 2026	1	$550	551	0	+551	No	+$1	03-28 02:30
will bitcoin reach 105k in february 2026	2	$248	124	124	+0	No	+$0	03-01 03:18
will silver si hit high 190 by end of february 182	2	$202	102	102	+0	No	+$0	02-03 21:43
will t lm be the next president of vietnam	2	$200	110	110	+0	Yes	-$4	02-05 13:29
will sentimental value win best picture at the 98th academy awards	2	$180	91	91	+0	No	+$0	03-01 18:20
will google have the best ai model at the end of january 2026	1	$117	117	0	+117	Yes	+$0	01-30 06:03
will alphabet be the second largest company in the world by market cap on january 31	1	$114	114	0	+114	Yes	+$0	01-27 02:43
si hit 65 low jan 2026 292 389 318	1	$100	101	0	+101	No	+$1	01-27 02:41
nba mil chi 2026 03 01	1	$82	201	0	+201	Bulls	+$119	03-01 03:20
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in August?	1	$73	73	0	+73	No	+$0	08-30 00:05
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $5,300 in September?	1	$73	73	0	+73	No	+$0	09-30 01:56
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $200 in May?	1	$72	73	0	+73	No	+$1	05-07 13:28
Will Z.ai have the #1 AI model at the end of April 2026 (Style Control On)?	1	$66	66	0	+66	No	+$0	04-27 02:10

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
10-16 03:36:03	Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the October 2026 meeting?	No	BUY	21	100¢	$21	0x897805…
09-30 01:56:39	Hantavirus pandemic in 2026?	No	SELL	13	97¢	$13	0xf6e617…
09-30 01:56:15	Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $5,300 in September?	No	BUY	73	100¢	$73	0x32207b…
08-30 00:05:10	Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in August?	No	BUY	73	100¢	$73	0xd96105…
07-22 02:31:34	will ethereum dip to 1300 in july 2026 715	No	BUY	32	100¢	$32	0xe0c036…
07-22 02:31:12	Will Lewis Hamilton be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion?	No	SELL	13	89¢	$11	0x155d69…
07-09 13:13:26	Will JB Pritzker win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	No	SELL	77	99¢	$77	0x910e11…
07-09 12:41:19	Will JB Pritzker win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	No	SELL	13	99¢	$12	0xf5e814…
07-09 12:30:49	Will JB Pritzker win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	No	SELL	15	99¢	$15	0xa9edea…
07-09 12:17:28	Will JB Pritzker win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	No	SELL	31	99¢	$31	0x5c2e66…
07-09 11:15:17	Will JB Pritzker win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	No	SELL	220	99¢	$218	0xd611a4…
07-09 11:00:25	Will JB Pritzker win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	No	SELL	190	99¢	$189	0x47b6d7…
07-09 10:42:02	Will JB Pritzker win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	No	SELL	2	99¢	$2	0x9bfe9e…
07-09 10:18:19	Will JB Pritzker win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	No	SELL	180	99¢	$179	0x74c725…
07-09 09:44:16	Will JB Pritzker win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	No	SELL	2	99¢	$2	0x295a2c…
07-09 09:32:29	Will JB Pritzker win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	No	SELL	1	99¢	$1	0xd7a303…
07-09 09:30:43	Will JB Pritzker win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	No	SELL	180	99¢	$179	0xb56502…
07-09 08:05:38	Will JB Pritzker win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	No	SELL	3	99¢	$3	0x34491c…
07-09 08:02:40	Will JB Pritzker win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	No	SELL	180	99¢	$179	0xcefa25…
07-09 07:55:59	Will JB Pritzker win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	No	SELL	1	99¢	$1	0xe054d2…
07-09 06:25:23	Will JB Pritzker win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	No	SELL	190	99¢	$189	0xa88f29…
07-09 06:03:16	Will JB Pritzker win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	No	SELL	160	99¢	$159	0x18f47d…
07-09 05:38:53	Will JB Pritzker win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	No	SELL	131	99¢	$130	0xc5e87c…
07-08 08:59:32	will xauusd dip to 3300 in july 2026	No	BUY	13	99¢	$13	0x043608…
07-07 17:16:40	Variational FDV above $100M one day after launch?	Yes	BUY	22	95¢	$21	0x652f2f…
07-04 06:21:37	Will JB Pritzker win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	No	BUY	1,576	99¢	$1,563	0x0507e8…
06-18 10:59:47	Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $230 by end of June?	No	BUY	394	100¢	$392	0x89c7f1…
06-18 10:59:47	Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $230 by end of June?	No	BUY	400	100¢	$398	0x5b28a6…
06-18 10:59:46	Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $230 by end of June?	No	BUY	400	100¢	$398	0xee71b9…
06-18 10:59:44	Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $230 by end of June?	No	BUY	394	100¢	$392	0x3c859a…
06-11 08:35:22	Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	No	BUY	23	99¢	$23	0x21f897…
06-11 08:34:54	Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 27°C on June 12?	No	BUY	12	100¢	$12	0x6e8f7a…
06-11 08:33:21	Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	No	SELL	19	100¢	$19	0x839c21…
05-27 03:41:02	Will the International Court of Justice win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?	No	SELL	29	98¢	$29	0xd0a510…
05-25 02:57:13	Will the highest temperature in London be 28°C on May 26?	No	BUY	7	100¢	$7	0x2abeb8…
05-25 02:56:40	Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 in May?	No	BUY	1,451	100¢	$1,450	0x7615aa…
05-25 02:56:17	Will the International Court of Justice win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?	No	BUY	29	98¢	$29	0x13a640…
05-25 02:55:37	Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?	No	SELL	355	99¢	$351	0x71bad8…
05-25 02:55:24	Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?	No	SELL	1,152	99¢	$1,142	0xb18673…
05-14 07:35:12	Hantavirus pandemic in 2026?	No	BUY	13	93¢	$12	0xee59e2…
05-14 07:34:09	Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?	No	BUY	355	99¢	$351	0x7d1193…
05-14 07:33:51	Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?	No	BUY	1,152	99¢	$1,143	0x34fd33…
05-14 07:33:21	Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	No	BUY	19	99¢	$19	0x4d41c1…
05-14 07:32:18	Will Roy Cooper win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	No	SELL	1,561	99¢	$1,544	0x8449d1…
05-14 07:31:17	Will Apple be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on May 31?	No	SELL	13	97¢	$13	0xb776ba…
05-07 13:28:27	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $200 in May?	No	BUY	73	99¢	$72	0xe61c19…
05-07 13:28:09	Will Apple be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on May 31?	No	BUY	13	96¢	$12	0x837b0b…
05-07 13:27:22	Will Roy Cooper win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	No	BUY	1,561	99¢	$1,545	0xa44a35…
04-27 02:10:24	Will Z.ai have the #1 AI model at the end of April 2026 (Style Control On)?	No	BUY	66	100¢	$66	0xbac317…
04-27 02:10:08	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	1,561	100¢	$1,559	0xd9d82d…
03-28 03:24:37	will nvidia be the largest company in the world by market cap on march 31 323	Yes	BUY	16	100¢	$16	0x8a697d…
03-28 02:30:21	will bitcoin reach 105k in march 2026	No	BUY	551	100¢	$550	0xfd5ef2…
03-25 07:31:11	will crude oil cl hit high 200 by end of march 926	No	BUY	25	100¢	$25	0x2d107a…
03-25 07:31:03	will bitcoin reach 150k in march 2026	No	BUY	1,008	100¢	$1,007	0x13809b…
03-22 08:32:09	will silver si hit high 150 by end of march	No	SELL	213	100¢	$213	0x204f5c…
03-22 08:31:47	will silver si hit high 150 by end of march	No	SELL	330	100¢	$329	0xf95947…
03-22 08:30:57	will silver si hit high 150 by end of march	No	SELL	470	100¢	$469	0xf1b2cf…
03-18 02:36:43	Will Sporting win the 2025–26 Champions League?	No	BUY	23	98¢	$23	0x01c113…
03-18 02:35:53	will silver si hit high 150 by end of march	No	BUY	1,013	99¢	$1,008	0xeb5fcd…
03-13 05:58:27	nba cha sas 2026 03 14	Spurs	BUY	23	72¢	$17	0x6b9cbf…
03-13 05:57:57	nba nop hou 2026 03 13	Pelicans	BUY	2,321	30¢	$695	0x8474f5…
03-13 05:57:09	nba min gsw 2026 03 13	Timberwolves	BUY	31	68¢	$21	0x51cc37…
03-13 05:55:07	will china gdp growth in q1 2026 be less than 3pt5	No	SELL	13	98¢	$13	0x715c26…
03-01 18:20:51	will sentimental value win best picture at the 98th academy awards	No	SELL	91	99¢	$90	0xeaa88b…
03-01 03:22:25	will sentimental value win best picture at the 98th academy awards	No	BUY	91	99¢	$90	0x6bdd8e…
03-01 03:21:55	nba dal cha 2026 03 03	Mavericks	BUY	17	30¢	$5	0x435a24…
03-01 03:21:33	nba mem ind 2026 03 01	Grizzlies	BUY	22	51¢	$11	0x2783d2…
03-01 03:20:33	nba mil chi 2026 03 01	Bulls	BUY	201	41¢	$82	0x651cf2…
03-01 03:19:15	nba nop uta 2026 02 28	Jazz	BUY	10	20¢	$2	0x1f0504…
03-01 03:18:59	nba nop uta 2026 02 28	Jazz	BUY	25	20¢	$5	0x92a860…
03-01 03:18:29	will bitcoin reach 105k in february 2026	No	SELL	124	100¢	$124	0x6df08e…
03-01 03:18:17	will jasmine crockett be the democratic nominee for senate in texas	No	SELL	39	68¢	$26	0x8920fa…
02-23 11:40:30	will ethereum reach 3800 in february 2026	No	BUY	2,004	100¢	$2,000	0xd91302…
02-23 11:40:16	will bitcoin reach 105k in february 2026	No	BUY	124	100¢	$124	0xfc668c…
02-23 11:39:56	will gold gc settle over 7000 on the final trading day of february 2026	No	BUY	21	100¢	$21	0x0feae7…
02-23 11:39:28	will jasmine crockett be the democratic nominee for senate in texas	No	BUY	39	80¢	$31	0x8fc5be…
02-15 10:07:49	Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2026 NBA Finals?	No	SELL	9	98¢	$9	0xb3cb7e…
02-15 10:07:49	Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2026 NBA Finals?	No	SELL	29	98¢	$29	0x7e47d7…
02-15 10:05:57	Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2026 NBA Finals?	No	SELL	12	98¢	$11	0xe10e09…
02-15 10:05:57	Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2026 NBA Finals?	No	SELL	10	98¢	$10	0x7a67e5…
02-15 10:05:15	Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2026 NBA Finals?	No	SELL	7	98¢	$6	0x662183…
02-15 10:05:05	Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2026 NBA Finals?	No	SELL	11	98¢	$11	0xa22aba…
02-15 10:02:43	Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2026 NBA Finals?	No	SELL	10	98¢	$10	0xd2bfb5…
02-15 10:02:43	Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2026 NBA Finals?	No	SELL	56	98¢	$55	0x14d998…
02-15 10:01:31	Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2026 NBA Finals?	No	SELL	34	98¢	$33	0x7056e2…
02-15 10:01:17	Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2026 NBA Finals?	No	SELL	10	98¢	$10	0xeb0653…
02-15 10:01:17	Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2026 NBA Finals?	No	SELL	10	98¢	$10	0x082c09…
02-15 09:58:49	Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2026 NBA Finals?	No	SELL	12	98¢	$12	0x5b05b9…
02-15 09:58:47	Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2026 NBA Finals?	No	SELL	8	98¢	$8	0xc4542a…
02-15 09:57:57	Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2026 NBA Finals?	No	SELL	7	98¢	$7	0xe38ae5…
02-15 09:56:51	Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2026 NBA Finals?	No	SELL	10	98¢	$10	0xe2d079…
02-15 09:54:45	Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2026 NBA Finals?	No	SELL	10	98¢	$10	0x240d3f…
02-15 09:18:19	Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2026 NBA Finals?	No	SELL	52	98¢	$51	0xd19b98…
02-15 09:18:19	Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2026 NBA Finals?	No	SELL	103	98¢	$101	0x5c7b67…
02-15 09:15:47	Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2026 NBA Finals?	No	SELL	11	98¢	$11	0x3dbd81…
02-15 09:15:41	Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2026 NBA Finals?	No	SELL	15	98¢	$15	0x640bcb…
02-15 09:15:37	Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2026 NBA Finals?	No	SELL	22	98¢	$22	0x5782e6…
02-15 09:15:31	Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2026 NBA Finals?	No	SELL	14	98¢	$14	0x5ba81b…
02-15 09:15:25	Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2026 NBA Finals?	No	SELL	20	98¢	$20	0x288319…
02-15 09:15:23	Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2026 NBA Finals?	No	SELL	10	98¢	$10	0x1a743a…