Narrow-Rhythm — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$9.74K

Unrealized P&L

+$1.91K

Hit rate

90.6%

Resolved

162

Trades

249

lifetime

Volume

$719.4K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$2.89K

Open exposure

$24.9K

4 positions

First seen

2026-01-01

last 10-29 07:20

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 99 days

Categories

Other

53% 90% +$8,031

Politics

40% 87% -$836

Sports

5% 100% +$2,269

Tech

1% 100% +$277

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

27 active days in 12wk • peak 4 trades/day

Open positions (4) Resolved markets (29) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by October 31?	No	+16,315	$15,000	100¢	$16.2K	+$1,242	10-05 04:59
Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before October 31, 2026?	No	+3,491	$3,000	100¢	$3.5K	+$478	09-18 13:43
Iran leadership change by October 31?	No	+3,189	$2,998	100¢	$3.2K	+$180	09-14 16:42
Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?	Yes	+2,129	$1,980	94¢	$2.0K	+$11	10-29 07:20

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Exact Score: Norway 3 - 3 England?	2	$20.2K	10,173	10,173	+0	No	+$163	07-11 23:54
no change in fed interest rates after january 2026 meeting	3	$18.8K	20,339	0	+20,339	Yes	+$1,539	01-28 14:27
khamenei out as supreme leader of iran by january 31	3	$16.5K	17,605	0	+17,605	No	+$1,105	01-29 06:03
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by October 31?	4	$15.0K	16,315	0	+16,315	open	—	10-05 04:59
Exact Score: Spain 3 - 3 Argentina?	1	$15.0K	15,152	0	+15,152	No	+$152	07-19 07:44
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30?	2	$14.2K	7,246	7,246	+0	No	+$239	05-01 13:26
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?	2	$14.0K	10,717	5,466	+5,251	Yes	-$745	07-25 06:02
will khamenei leave iran by friday	1	$14.0K	14,042	0	+14,042	No	+$42	01-09 13:54
us x iran ceasefire by march 6	5	$13.5K	13,826	0	+13,826	No	+$276	03-04 20:07
Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair?	1	$13.0K	13,174	0	+13,174	Yes	+$174	02-02 09:08
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	1	$13.0K	13,786	0	+13,786	No	+$786	07-01 08:37
iran leadership change by july 31 20260629143932628	3	$12.4K	12,859	0	+12,859	No	+$459	07-25 06:09
Exact Score: England 3 - 3 Argentina?	1	$12.0K	12,109	0	+12,109	No	+$109	07-15 08:08
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31?	2	$11.0K	12,362	0	+12,362	No	+$1,362	05-01 09:23
us x iran ceasefire by april 7	3	$10.6K	5,832	5,832	+0	Yes	-$559	04-07 20:21
Iran leadership change by June 30?	1	$10.0K	10,417	0	+10,417	No	+$417	06-01 13:19
will novak djokovic win the 2026 australian open	1	$10.0K	10,320	0	+10,320	No	+$320	01-29 06:06
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	1	$10.0K	10,091	0	+10,091	No	+$91	07-07 08:38
Exact Score: Switzerland 3 - 3 Colombia?	1	$10.0K	10,091	0	+10,091	No	+$91	07-07 08:35
Exact Score: France 3 - 3 Spain?	1	$10.0K	10,132	0	+10,132	No	+$132	07-14 09:52
Exact Score: France 3 - 3 England?	1	$10.0K	10,204	0	+10,204	No	+$204	07-16 06:28
Exact Score: France 2 - 3 Morocco?	1	$10.0K	10,102	0	+10,102	No	+$102	07-08 09:27
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 3 Switzerland?	1	$10.0K	10,061	0	+10,061	No	+$61	07-11 23:55
will laura virginia fernndez delgado win the first round by at least 6	2	$10.0K	5,036	5,036	+0	Yes	-$14	02-13 08:19
Exact Score: Spain 3 - 3 Belgium?	2	$9.4K	9,519	0	+9,519	No	+$119	07-10 18:22
us x iran diplomatic meeting by june 16 2026 20260612160513701	22	$9.3K	5,150	5,150	+0	No	-$747	06-16 09:37
US ceasefire against Iran continues through August 22?	2	$8.1K	4,125	4,125	+0	Yes	+$121	08-23 08:59
Exact Score: United States 3 - 3 Belgium?	1	$8.1K	8,257	0	+8,257	No	+$157	07-06 21:20
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 3 Spain?	1	$8.0K	8,092	0	+8,092	No	+$110	07-06 10:13
will the iranian regime fall by march 31	2	$7.8K	8,036	0	+8,036	No	+$236	03-19 20:05

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
10-29 07:20:37	Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?	Yes	BUY	2,129	93¢	$1,980	0x8efa35…
10-26 05:47:08	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	1,979	95¢	$1,880	0xf12a77…
10-24 12:53:59	Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Yes	BUY	1,245	80¢	$1,000	0x01a2f3…
10-21 06:18:42	US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 22?	Yes	BUY	1,042	96¢	$1,000	0x99eb4e…
10-13 06:18:34	US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 15, 2026?	No	BUY	1,028	97¢	$1,000	0xabdeed…
10-09 06:59:30	US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 12?	Yes	BUY	1,048	95¢	$1,000	0xd1be0e…
10-09 06:57:51	US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 15, 2026?	No	BUY	1,111	90¢	$1,000	0x896ea7…
10-06 17:19:26	US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 7?	Yes	BUY	2,028	99¢	$2,000	0xf4262d…
10-05 04:59:07	Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by October 31?	No	BUY	5,376	93¢	$5,000	0x811dfa…
10-02 11:54:21	Will Lula win the most votes in the first round of the 2026 Brazil presidential election?	Yes	BUY	411	73¢	$300	0xf3ac6a…
10-02 11:50:39	Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva qualify for Brazil's presidential runoff?	Yes	BUY	5,085	98¢	$5,000	0x92ef33…
10-01 06:56:29	Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by October 31?	No	BUY	2,128	94¢	$2,000	0xfdd3c4…
09-26 16:49:35	US x Iran ceasefire continues through September 30?	Yes	BUY	1,087	92¢	$1,000	0x8ba0fd…
09-26 16:48:33	us x iran ceasefire continues through september 25 20260917	Yes	SELL	1,071	100¢	$1,067	0xdea212…
09-23 14:04:13	saudi oil pipeline east west restarts by october 31	Yes	BUY	376	80¢	$300	0xd0a0f8…
09-23 13:19:07	Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by October 31?	No	BUY	2,174	92¢	$2,000	0x10d474…
09-21 09:25:00	Saudi Oil Pipeline (East-West) restarts by September 22?	No	BUY	1,032	97¢	$1,000	0x0acca5…
09-21 09:20:26	US x Iran ceasefire continues through September 25?	Yes	BUY	1,071	93¢	$1,000	0x3bb679…
09-20 17:01:31	US x Iran ceasefire continues through September 20?	Yes	BUY	2,038	98¢	$2,000	0x2dcce9…
09-18 13:43:08	Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before October 31, 2026?	No	BUY	3,491	86¢	$3,000	0xe943ef…
09-18 13:40:53	Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by October 31?	No	BUY	6,637	90¢	$6,000	0x8eddaa…
09-14 16:42:57	Iran leadership change by October 31?	No	BUY	3,189	94¢	$2,998	0x735fa2…
09-14 16:40:34	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?	No	BUY	5,814	86¢	$5,000	0xfb0232…
09-09 14:03:30	Apple Announces Foldable iPhone at “Surprise and Shine” Event?	Yes	BUY	3,033	99¢	$3,000	0xa0a50a…
09-08 09:35:12	US Open WTA: Aryna Sabalenka vs Linda Noskova	Aryna Sabalenka	BUY	429	70¢	$300	0x186088…
09-07 08:23:16	atp shelton alcaraz 2026 09 08	Carlos Alcaraz	BUY	897	78¢	$700	0x4cc481…
09-07 07:49:13	atp zverev darderi 2026 09 07	Alexander Zverev	BUY	556	90¢	$500	0xce4c3d…
09-07 07:46:58	US Open WTA: Iga Swiatek vs Qinwen Zheng	Iga Swiatek	BUY	375	80¢	$300	0xb4a074…
09-07 07:45:40	US Open WTA: Mirra Andreeva vs Anastasia Potapova	Mirra Andreeva	BUY	357	84¢	$300	0xde7573…
09-06 06:14:16	US Open WTA: Aryna Sabalenka vs Taylor Townsend	Aryna Sabalenka	BUY	843	83¢	$700	0x4ecf6f…
09-06 06:12:13	atp paul alcaraz 2026 09 06	Carlos Alcaraz	BUY	854	82¢	$700	0xb7af0c…
09-05 15:28:27	US Open WTA: Iga Swiatek vs Marie Bouzkova	Iga Swiatek	BUY	349	86¢	$300	0xc70dd6…
09-05 15:26:36	US Open WTA: Cristina Bucsa vs Coco Gauff	Coco Gauff	BUY	1,042	96¢	$1,000	0x9c3d53…
09-05 13:59:57	atp fritz cerundo 2026 09 04	Taylor Fritz	BUY	575	87¢	$500	0x5826e4…
09-03 09:15:36	wta sabalen rakhimo 2026 09 04	Aryna Sabalenka	BUY	1,599	94¢	$1,500	0xc27621…
09-03 09:13:15	atp wu alcaraz 2026 09 04	Carlos Alcaraz	BUY	1,630	92¢	$1,500	0xe63d9e…
09-03 09:10:58	atp zverev halys 2026 09 03	Alexander Zverev	BUY	588	85¢	$500	0xfe50e8…
09-03 09:09:15	US Open ATP: Taylor Fritz vs Mattia Bellucci	Taylor Fritz	BUY	562	89¢	$500	0x2d1106…
09-02 13:20:21	US Open ATP: Jaime Faria vs Carlos Alcaraz	Carlos Alcaraz	BUY	1,075	93¢	$1,000	0xe628b5…
09-02 13:17:36	US Open WTA: Katie Boulter vs Karolina Muchova	Karolina Muchova	BUY	588	85¢	$500	0x966d9b…
09-02 10:10:46	US Open WTA: Aryna Sabalenka vs Polina Iatcenko	Aryna Sabalenka	BUY	1,979	96¢	$1,900	0xfb864e…
09-01 17:04:33	Will Ben Shelton win the 2026 Men's US Open?	No	BUY	2,155	93¢	$2,000	0x9f5976…
09-01 13:18:18	US Open ATP: Alexander Zverev vs Lorenzo Sonego	Alexander Zverev	BUY	1,075	93¢	$1,000	0xc73ac9…
08-31 12:57:04	Will Ben Shelton win the 2026 Men's US Open?	No	BUY	1,820	93¢	$1,700	0x13a901…
08-31 12:48:31	wta sabalen osorio 2026 08 30	Aryna Sabalenka	BUY	3,158	95¢	$3,000	0xd8e7f8…
08-23 09:00:42	Will Novak Djokovic win the 2026 Men's US Open?	No	BUY	4,445	90¢	$4,000	0x2bb655…
08-23 08:59:27	US ceasefire against Iran continues through August 22?	Yes	SELL	4,125	100¢	$4,121	0x29acb1…
08-23 08:42:42	US ceasefire against Iran continues through August 31?	Yes	BUY	2,151	93¢	$2,000	0x596ad3…
08-19 15:03:12	us announces end of iranian blockade by august 22 2026	No	BUY	2,027	99¢	$2,000	0x1d885a…
08-19 14:59:10	us x iran ceasefire continues through august 22	Yes	BUY	4,125	97¢	$4,000	0xa1fdbf…
08-05 09:36:57	Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 30?	No	BUY	2,139	94¢	$2,000	0x1f9a0b…
08-05 09:29:21	us iran final nuclear deal by september 30 2026	No	BUY	1,163	86¢	$1,000	0x849457…
08-05 09:25:38	us iran final nuclear deal by august 31 2026 20260621201255154	No	BUY	3,115	96¢	$3,000	0xfe73b6…
08-05 09:23:57	israel x iran ceasefire continues through august 15 20260716224448969 246 815 987 693	Yes	BUY	1,118	89¢	$1,000	0x5db33b…
08-03 13:29:42	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by august 31 20260702154212320	No	BUY	3,409	88¢	$3,000	0x74d481…
08-03 13:03:03	israel x iran ceasefire continues through august 15 20260716224448969 246 815 987 693	Yes	BUY	4,915	81¢	$4,000	0xaf3c6e…
07-30 05:55:05	bab el mandeb strait effectively closed by august 31	No	BUY	4,301	93¢	$4,000	0x84f0e1…
07-25 06:09:54	iran leadership change by july 31 20260629143932628	No	BUY	4,585	96¢	$4,400	0x2c37ba…
07-25 06:02:19	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?	Yes	SELL	5,466	73¢	$4,004	0x9c762d…
07-20 15:05:46	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	10,717	93¢	$10,000	0x9ee00f…
07-20 15:03:00	iran leadership change by july 31 20260629143932628	No	BUY	5,160	97¢	$5,000	0xc51f38…
07-20 15:00:49	iran leadership change by july 31 20260629143932628	No	BUY	3,114	96¢	$3,000	0x1d956c…
07-19 07:47:28	Exact Score: Any Other Score?	No	BUY	3,125	96¢	$3,000	0x29f06b…
07-19 07:44:36	Exact Score: Spain 3 - 3 Argentina?	No	BUY	15,152	99¢	$15,000	0x4ca557…
07-16 06:28:38	Exact Score: France 3 - 3 England?	No	BUY	10,204	98¢	$10,000	0x0e8271…
07-15 08:10:29	Exact Score: Any Other Score?	No	BUY	3,158	95¢	$3,000	0x0190af…
07-15 08:08:20	Exact Score: England 3 - 3 Argentina?	No	BUY	12,109	99¢	$12,000	0x56f80a…
07-14 14:44:37	Exact Score: Any Other Score?	No	BUY	7,527	93¢	$7,000	0x90902c…
07-14 10:19:11	Will annual inflation be 3.6% or less in June?	No	BUY	1,837	98¢	$1,800	0x15f30c…
07-14 10:17:01	Will monthly inflation increase by 0.1% or less in June?	Yes	BUY	2,035	98¢	$2,000	0x5fb04c…
07-14 09:52:13	Exact Score: France 3 - 3 Spain?	No	BUY	10,132	99¢	$10,000	0x810a51…
07-11 23:55:07	Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 3 Switzerland?	No	BUY	10,061	99¢	$10,000	0xed16fb…
07-11 23:54:04	Exact Score: Norway 3 - 3 England?	No	SELL	10,173	100¢	$10,163	0x4030f8…
07-11 07:25:04	Exact Score: Norway 3 - 3 England?	No	BUY	10,173	98¢	$10,000	0xad1413…
07-10 18:22:11	Exact Score: Spain 3 - 3 Belgium?	No	BUY	2,432	99¢	$2,400	0x66958f…
07-10 08:26:05	Exact Score: Spain 3 - 3 Belgium?	No	BUY	7,088	99¢	$7,000	0x2bb447…
07-10 08:24:16	Will Novak Djokovic be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner?	No	BUY	3,394	88¢	$3,000	0xaaafa8…
07-09 21:36:01	fifwc fra mar 2026 07 09 team to advance	France	BUY	2,036	98¢	$2,000	0x044f90…
07-08 09:27:34	Exact Score: France 2 - 3 Morocco?	No	BUY	10,102	99¢	$10,000	0x5a5983…
07-07 17:36:50	fifwc arg egy 2026 07 07 team to advance	Argentina	SELL	1,176	16¢	$188	0x87c309…
07-07 08:38:02	Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	No	BUY	10,091	99¢	$10,000	0xfd2598…
07-07 08:35:38	Exact Score: Switzerland 3 - 3 Colombia?	No	BUY	10,091	99¢	$10,000	0xd094fa…
07-06 21:20:17	Exact Score: United States 3 - 3 Belgium?	No	BUY	8,257	98¢	$8,100	0x227796…
07-06 10:13:28	Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 3 Spain?	No	BUY	8,092	99¢	$7,983	0xe829c1…
07-05 19:30:34	Exact Score: Brazil 2 - 3 Norway?	No	BUY	6,125	98¢	$6,000	0x71f8b2…
07-04 17:57:05	Exact Score: Canada 2 - 2 Morocco?	No	BUY	6,067	99¢	$6,000	0x18bdd8…
07-04 13:04:31	fifwc arg egy 2026 07 07 team to advance	Argentina	BUY	1,176	85¢	$1,000	0x12c1dd…
07-04 12:59:14	fifwc par fra 2026 07 04 team to advance	France	BUY	1,505	93¢	$1,400	0xc59037…
07-02 10:12:56	fifwc arg cvi 2026 07 03 team to advance	Argentina	BUY	1,522	92¢	$1,400	0x309143…
07-01 08:37:40	Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	No	BUY	13,786	94¢	$13,000	0x570872…
07-01 08:23:05	fifwc eng cdr 2026 07 01 team to advance	England	BUY	1,124	89¢	$1,000	0xf0609f…
06-25 09:09:04	will trump agree to iranian transit fees in the strait of hormuz by june 30	No	BUY	7,128	98¢	$7,000	0x79365e…
06-19 05:42:19	Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential election?	Yes	BUY	3,333	90¢	$3,000	0xcc380a…
06-19 05:41:43	Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential election?	Yes	BUY	4,444	90¢	$4,000	0xa10be6…
06-18 06:18:44	Will Andy Burnham win the 2026 Makerfield by-election?	Yes	BUY	4,117	90¢	$3,700	0x8bd09f…
06-17 04:58:35	Will Andy Burnham win the 2026 Makerfield by-election?	Yes	BUY	1,851	85¢	$1,574	0xd0cdd2…
06-17 04:57:07	Starmer out by June 30, 2026?	No	SELL	1,453	64¢	$937	0x3c3ae7…
06-17 04:56:37	Starmer out by June 30, 2026?	No	SELL	100	66¢	$66	0x62b318…
06-17 04:55:28	Starmer out by June 30, 2026?	No	SELL	800	67¢	$532	0xbb348c…
06-16 13:27:47	Will Andy Burnham win the 2026 Makerfield by-election?	Yes	BUY	1,375	80¢	$1,100	0xedb4d7…