Meager-Following — Polymarket

Realized P&L (90d)

+$2.90K

Unrealized P&L

+$201

Hit rate

90.2%

Resolved (90d)

Trades (90d)

140

689 lifetime

Volume (90d)

$63.8K

$213.1K lifetime

Avg / trade

$309

Open exposure

$11.5K

9 positions

First seen

2026-01-01

last 11-03 05:51

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 138 days

Categories

Other

60% 59% +$2,809

Politics

19% 66% -$1,655

Sports

18% 54% +$913

Tech

3% 0% -$1,667

Crypto

1% 100% +$634

Pop-Culture

0% 100% +$103

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

33 active days in 12wk • peak 22 trades/day

Open positions (9) Resolved markets (25) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the December 2026 meeting?	Yes	+8,400	$6,621	72¢	$6.1K	-$531	10-28 20:53
Will SpaceX have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026?	Yes	-3,320	-$2,922	66¢	$-2175	+$747	05-17 02:57
Will Manchester City win the 2026-27 English Premier League (EPL) Championship?	No	+1,333	$1,000	90¢	$1.2K	+$193	08-16 20:16
Will Reza Pahlavi be head of state in Iran end of 2026?	No	+1,057	$1,000	98¢	$1.0K	+$36	06-01 09:51
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	No	-400	-$268	82¢	$-330	-$62	10-04 04:13
Erdoğan out by December 31, 2026?	No	+297	$234	97¢	$287	+$53	11-03 05:51
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of November 2026?	Yes	+1,000	$440	29¢	$285	-$155	10-19 15:46
Will Arsenal win the 2026-27 UEFA Champions League Championship?	Yes	+1,000	$130	15¢	$145	+$15	08-03 21:04
Will Manchester United win the 2026-27 English Premier League (EPL) Championship?	Yes	+909	$100	0¢	$4	-$96	08-16 20:18

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 English Premier League?	4	$23.9K	12,911	12,911	-0	Yes	+$1,898	05-19 20:56
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?	3	$21.5K	11,493	11,493	+0	Yes	+$1,482	09-16 18:28
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?	9	$15.1K	12,200	5,337	+6,863	Yes	+$1,915	10-27 19:04
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by May 31?	1	$10.0K	10,022	0	+10,022	No	+$22	05-31 21:27
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the December 2026 meeting?	2	$6.6K	8,400	0	+8,400	open	—	10-28 20:53
Will France win on 2026-07-09?	1	$5.0K	5,141	0	+5,141	Yes	+$141	07-09 21:37
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	7	$4.3K	2,353	2,753	-400	open	—	10-04 04:13
iran x israelus conflict ends by april 15 618 586 982	2	$3.6K	2,292	2,292	+0	Yes	-$800	04-07 22:08
Will Alexander Zverev win the 2026 Men's French Open?	2	$3.0K	2,457	2,457	+0	Yes	+$992	06-07 13:26
Will SpaceX have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026?	12	$2.9K	0	3,320	-3,320	open	—	05-17 02:57
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	2	$2.8K	1,942	1,942	+0	Yes	+$790	07-19 21:51
atp cobolli zverev 2026 06 07	9	$2.7K	2,298	1,149	+1,149	Alexander Zverev	-$144	06-07 17:06
Will Spain win on 2026-07-10?	2	$2.5K	1,695	1,695	+0	Yes	+$545	07-10 20:54
Will Australia win Eurovision 2026?	2	$2.3K	1,343	1,343	+0	No	+$341	05-16 23:11
Will Finland win Eurovision 2026?	2	$2.3K	1,259	1,259	+0	No	+$258	05-16 23:02
us forces enter iran by march 31 222 191 243 517 878 439 519	7	$2.2K	1,342	1,342	+0	No	+$109	03-30 23:21
will turkey schedule early presidential elections in 2026	2	$2.0K	1,193	1,193	+0	open	—	08-03 23:06
fifwc esp arg 2026 07 19 team to advance	4	$1.8K	954	954	+0	Spain	+$21	07-19 22:21
Erdoğan out by December 31, 2026?	3	$1.8K	1,087	790	+297	open	—	11-03 05:51
khamenei out as supreme leader of iran by march 31	2	$1.6K	1,136	1,136	+0	Yes	-$352	01-14 14:03
fifwc mex rsa 2026 06 11 spread home 1pt5	6	$1.5K	943	943	+0	Mexico	+$296	06-11 21:01
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of October 2026?	2	$1.5K	3,101	3,101	+0	No	-$505	10-22 12:20
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	4	$1.5K	700	920	-220	No	+$4	07-19 21:51
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 15, 2026?	8	$1.2K	913	913	+0	No	+$208	04-24 15:51
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Martin Landaluce vs Daniil Medvedev	4	$1.1K	1,250	1,220	+30	Daniil Medvedev	+$167	05-14 18:29
us strike on nigeria by january 31 2026	2	$1.1K	675	675	+0	No	+$132	01-18 22:14
Tottenham Hotspur FC leading at halftime?	2	$1.1K	581	581	+0	Yes	+$81	10-19 20:05
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	3	$1.1K	592	853	-261	No	+$71	10-15 10:08
Will Finland win the televote for Eurovision 2026?	4	$1.1K	608	608	+0	No	+$54	05-16 23:12
Will Amed Sportif win on 2026-09-20?	9	$1.0K	538	538	+0	Yes	+$22	09-20 18:47

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
11-03 05:51:25	Erdoğan out by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	789	97¢	$765	0xd1c840…
10-28 20:53:52	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the December 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	6,900	79¢	$5,451	0xc2f680…
10-27 19:04:09	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	SELL	1,130	95¢	$1,074	0xc6de97…
10-27 19:03:53	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	SELL	1,920	95¢	$1,824	0x1a1aea…
10-27 15:27:56	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	SELL	1,180	94¢	$1,114	0x083efd…
10-27 15:27:14	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	SELL	18	94¢	$17	0x605101…
10-27 15:24:03	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	SELL	5	94¢	$5	0x849459…
10-27 15:20:38	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	SELL	1	94¢	$1	0xbe7941…
10-27 02:22:09	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	SELL	297	94¢	$281	0xc1d048…
10-27 02:15:15	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	SELL	786	94¢	$742	0x022cca…
10-26 12:14:53	Will the next Fable model (5.2+) debut at a score of at least 1500 by June 30, 2027?	Yes	BUY	400	93¢	$372	0x614a7a…
10-25 21:54:06	FC Barcelona vs. Real Madrid CF: O/U 4.5	Over	SELL	217	1¢	$2	0x395ebe…
10-25 21:51:30	FC Barcelona vs. Real Madrid CF: O/U 3.5	Over	SELL	152	27¢	$41	0x06b69d…
10-25 19:53:35	FC Barcelona vs. Real Madrid CF: O/U 4.5	Over	BUY	217	46¢	$100	0x68cb83…
10-25 19:53:24	FC Barcelona vs. Real Madrid CF: O/U 3.5	Over	BUY	152	66¢	$100	0x47eab1…
10-25 19:53:12	Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-10-25?	Yes	BUY	161	62¢	$100	0x931db4…
10-22 13:52:12	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the December 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	1,500	78¢	$1,170	0x384f8f…
10-22 12:59:03	Lisbon: Sumit Nagal vs Benjamin Hassan	Benjamin Hassan	BUY	238	42¢	$100	0x3a8628…
10-22 12:49:54	Lisbon: Sumit Nagal vs Benjamin Hassan	Benjamin Hassan	SELL	455	15¢	$68	0x1fb2ab…
10-22 12:21:29	Lisbon: Sumit Nagal vs Benjamin Hassan	Benjamin Hassan	BUY	455	44¢	$200	0x99e131…
10-22 12:20:42	Lisbon: Sumit Nagal vs Benjamin Hassan	Sumit Nagal	BUY	172	58¢	$100	0x4707c5…
10-22 12:20:03	Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of October 2026?	Yes	SELL	3,101	16¢	$495	0x7f8c2f…
10-20 20:26:08	Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-10-20?	Yes	SELL	205	27¢	$55	0x9ac372…
10-20 15:03:27	Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-10-20?	Yes	BUY	256	39¢	$100	0x4c4091…
10-19 20:34:21	Will Tottenham Hotspur FC win on 2026-10-19?	Yes	SELL	131	82¢	$108	0xc53564…
10-19 20:34:08	Will Tottenham Hotspur FC win on 2026-10-19?	Yes	SELL	2	82¢	$2	0xe7c499…
10-19 20:33:32	Will Tottenham Hotspur FC win on 2026-10-19?	Yes	SELL	58	82¢	$47	0x2dda3e…
10-19 20:33:09	Will Tottenham Hotspur FC win on 2026-10-19?	Yes	SELL	3	82¢	$2	0x5aefb0…
10-19 20:33:02	Will Tottenham Hotspur FC win on 2026-10-19?	Yes	SELL	48	82¢	$39	0x28876a…
10-19 20:32:45	Will Tottenham Hotspur FC win on 2026-10-19?	Yes	SELL	5	82¢	$4	0xdfabc4…
10-19 20:05:02	Tottenham Hotspur FC leading at halftime?	Yes	SELL	581	100¢	$581	0x411f11…
10-19 19:41:33	1st Half Spread: Tottenham Hotspur FC (-1.5)	Tottenham Hotspur FC	SELL	256	15¢	$38	0xeb4acb…
10-19 19:22:32	1st Half Spread: Tottenham Hotspur FC (-1.5)	Tottenham Hotspur FC	BUY	256	39¢	$100	0x426321…
10-19 19:22:11	Tottenham Hotspur FC leading at halftime?	Yes	BUY	581	86¢	$500	0x9cadcf…
10-19 19:21:45	Will Tottenham Hotspur FC win on 2026-10-19?	Yes	BUY	247	81¢	$200	0x82a448…
10-19 15:46:54	Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of November 2026?	Yes	BUY	541	44¢	$238	0x6428fd…
10-19 15:46:54	Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of November 2026?	Yes	BUY	10	44¢	$5	0x3968a8…
10-19 15:46:54	Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of November 2026?	Yes	BUY	25	44¢	$11	0x195604…
10-19 13:58:57	Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of November 2026?	Yes	BUY	25	44¢	$11	0xf0929b…
10-19 12:58:54	Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of November 2026?	Yes	BUY	3	44¢	$1	0xb41e4c…
10-15 10:10:43	Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of November 2026?	Yes	BUY	396	44¢	$174	0xfd83ac…
10-15 10:08:56	Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Yes	SELL	592	83¢	$490	0x53267e…
10-14 21:14:01	Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of October 2026?	Yes	BUY	3,101	32¢	$1,000	0xebf6ad…
10-14 21:13:24	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?	No	BUY	1,429	70¢	$1,000	0x2efa49…
10-13 20:27:45	Spread: Arsenal FC (-2.5)	Arsenal FC	BUY	158	63¢	$100	0x68fc17…
10-13 20:27:25	Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-10-13?	Yes	BUY	145	69¢	$100	0xdaa7ba…
10-11 15:26:39	Spread: Falcons (-2.5)	Falcons	BUY	172	58¢	$100	0x96ddaa…
10-11 15:26:04	Spread: Bears (-3.5)	Packers	BUY	161	62¢	$100	0x57b422…
10-07 13:31:11	Erdoğan out by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	1	97¢	$1	0x5e1cf7…
10-04 22:15:11	Spread: Vikings (-13.5)	Dolphins	SELL	175	57¢	$100	0xc5f12d…
10-04 21:26:01	Spread: 49ers (-3.5)	Broncos	BUY	159	63¢	$100	0xd93bad…
10-04 21:25:23	Spread: Vikings (-13.5)	Dolphins	BUY	175	57¢	$100	0xb0d273…
10-04 21:24:38	Spread: Chiefs (-3.5)	Raiders	BUY	164	61¢	$100	0x192606…
10-04 21:24:02	Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Yes	BUY	592	84¢	$500	0x01bcaa…
10-04 20:04:23	Spread: Bills (-2.5)	Bills	SELL	23	32¢	$7	0x4e184d…
10-04 17:32:22	Spread: Cardinals (-6.5)	Cardinals	BUY	5	53¢	$3	0x9fe6a8…
10-04 17:31:29	Spread: Bears (-3.5)	Bears	BUY	177	56¢	$100	0x636164…
10-04 17:31:08	Spread: Bills (-2.5)	Bills	BUY	179	56¢	$100	0xc8d28b…
10-04 04:13:02	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	No	SELL	1,835	85¢	$1,559	0xa65bb8…
10-03 21:06:53	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	No	SELL	118	85¢	$100	0x75fa89…
10-03 21:00:22	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	No	SELL	6	85¢	$5	0x174046…
10-03 20:25:02	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	No	SELL	118	85¢	$100	0x913557…
10-03 20:15:44	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	No	SELL	277	85¢	$236	0x9a6da5…
10-03 19:46:59	Spain vs. Czechia: Czechia O/U 0.5	Under	BUY	135	74¢	$100	0xafbc50…
10-03 19:43:51	Will England win on 2026-10-03?	Yes	SELL	488	100¢	$487	0x6a8afe…
10-03 19:43:31	Spread: England (-1.5)	England	SELL	125	100¢	$125	0x2b67bb…
10-03 19:43:13	England leading at halftime?	Yes	SELL	102	100¢	$102	0x4cb904…
10-03 16:27:47	Spread: England (-1.5)	England	BUY	125	80¢	$100	0x61c332…
10-03 16:16:29	England leading at halftime?	Yes	BUY	102	87¢	$89	0x9ed63d…
10-03 16:14:27	Will England win on 2026-10-03?	Yes	BUY	488	82¢	$400	0x604407…
10-02 20:22:20	Belgium vs. Türkiye: O/U 3.5	Over	SELL	89	53¢	$47	0xf2fc06…
10-02 19:09:08	Belgium vs. Türkiye: O/U 3.5	Over	BUY	179	56¢	$100	0x9abf2c…
10-02 16:17:59	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	12,200	82¢	$10,004	0xe0a568…
10-01 19:37:12	Will Google have the best AI model at the end of October 2026?	Yes	SELL	295	64¢	$189	0xc3b20c…
10-01 12:16:59	Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of November 2026?	Yes	BUY	27	3¢	$1	0xf87488…
10-01 12:16:59	Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of November 2026?	Yes	BUY	30	3¢	$1	0x44366c…
10-01 12:16:59	Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of November 2026?	Yes	BUY	42	3¢	$1	0x0edaab…
10-01 06:19:30	Will Z.ai have the best AI model at the end of November 2026?	Yes	BUY	570	2¢	$10	0xbc7b19…
10-01 06:19:29	Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of November 2026?	Yes	BUY	32	3¢	$1	0x23c704…
10-01 06:19:29	Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of November 2026?	Yes	BUY	30	3¢	$1	0x11fa99…
10-01 06:17:53	Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of November 2026?	Yes	BUY	6	3¢	$0	0xc82f6e…
09-30 22:21:27	Will Google have the best AI model at the end of October 2026?	Yes	SELL	295	72¢	$212	0x3623e7…
09-30 20:08:20	Will Google have the best AI model at the end of October 2026?	Yes	SELL	590	17¢	$99	0x17c00c…
09-30 20:07:47	Will Google have the best AI model at the end of October 2026?	Yes	SELL	350	14¢	$50	0xfa9ab0…
09-30 20:06:45	Will Google have the best AI model at the end of October 2026?	Yes	SELL	831	14¢	$118	0x3bad85…
09-27 16:40:53	Spread: Chiefs (-6.5)	Chiefs	BUY	155	65¢	$100	0x517cbe…
09-27 16:38:23	Spread: Bills (-6.5)	Bills	BUY	182	55¢	$100	0x712c82…
09-27 16:33:30	Spread: Seahawks (-6.5)	Seahawks	BUY	169	59¢	$100	0x260cc3…
09-20 20:31:10	Packers vs. Jets	Jets	SELL	235	25¢	$59	0x1e1af9…
09-20 20:13:19	Will FC Porto win on 2026-09-20?	No	SELL	145	17¢	$25	0xb989b5…
09-20 19:45:28	Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-09-20?	Yes	BUY	161	62¢	$100	0x5e269b…
09-20 19:44:02	Spread: AC Milan (-1.5)	AC Milan	BUY	156	64¢	$100	0x1e28b4…
09-20 19:41:52	Packers vs. Jets	Jets	BUY	235	85¢	$200	0xd35722…
09-20 19:40:01	Will FC Porto win on 2026-09-20?	No	BUY	145	69¢	$100	0xa0ae20…
09-20 19:38:49	Packers vs. Jets	Packers	SELL	161	13¢	$21	0xc6056f…
09-20 18:47:55	Will Amed Sportif win on 2026-09-20?	Yes	SELL	210	97¢	$204	0x11ca0f…
09-20 18:47:35	Will Amed Sportif win on 2026-09-20?	Yes	SELL	5	97¢	$5	0xd6fc6c…
09-20 18:47:16	Will Amed Sportif win on 2026-09-20?	Yes	SELL	62	97¢	$60	0x8edc99…
09-20 18:47:14	Will Amed Sportif win on 2026-09-20?	Yes	SELL	103	97¢	$100	0x9899e1…
09-20 18:47:13	Will Amed Sportif win on 2026-09-20?	Yes	SELL	17	97¢	$16	0xf4211d…