Defenseless-Turtle — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$84

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

96.7%

Resolved

Trades

lifetime

Volume

$6.08K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$75

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-02-26

last 05-10 05:42

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 3 days

Categories

Politics

74% 67% +$84

Other

21% — —

Crypto

4% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

7 active days in 12wk • peak 8 trades/day

Open positions Resolved markets (2) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
US strikes Iran by March 1, 2026?	1	$1000	1,136	0	+1,136	open	—	02-26 10:16
will the us not strike iran by february 28 2026	2	$730	1,948	1,948	+0	open	—	02-27 14:16
US strikes Iran by March 8, 2026?	1	$500	687	0	+687	open	—	02-26 10:10
will 15 19 ships transit the strait of hormuz between march 17 23	2	$374	812	812	+0	open	—	03-24 16:06
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 30, 2026?	2	$224	333	333	+0	open	—	04-23 12:55
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?	2	$214	114	114	+0	open	—	05-05 09:46
will axiom be accused of insider trading	1	$200	335	0	+335	open	—	02-26 10:59
us forces enter iran by march 7	1	$200	236	0	+236	open	—	03-05 08:18
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 5, 2026?	2	$184	134	134	+0	No	+$84	05-05 09:46
us forces enter iran by march 14 337	2	$160	178	0	+178	open	—	03-11 09:06
us x iran ceasefire by march 15	2	$130	216	0	+216	open	—	03-10 08:16
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026?	2	$110	333	333	+0	Yes	+$10	03-10 08:13
US forces enter Iran by April 30?	1	$100	251	0	+251	open	—	04-02 09:12
will the bank of russia make no change to the key rate after the march meeting	1	$100	316	0	+316	open	—	02-26 11:39
Will Trump talk to Volodymyr Zelenskyy in April?	1	$100	164	0	+164	open	—	04-02 09:09
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 22, 2026?	1	$100	307	0	+307	open	—	04-16 08:12
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026?	1	$100	116	0	+116	open	—	05-10 05:40
will the iranian regime fall by march 31	1	$100	114	0	+114	open	—	03-06 08:35
us x iran ceasefire by april 15	1	$100	147	0	+147	open	—	03-24 16:07
Iran leadership change by March 13?	1	$100	110	0	+110	open	—	03-10 08:17
us x iran ceasefire by march 31	1	$100	115	0	+115	open	—	03-24 16:07
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 25, 2026?	1	$100	112	0	+112	open	—	04-23 12:49
us x iran diplomatic meeting by april 18 2026 456	1	$100	112	0	+112	open	—	04-16 08:12
us x iran ceasefire by march 6	1	$100	108	0	+108	open	—	03-02 12:51
will mrbeasts million dollar puzzle be solved by march 31	2	$60	401	0	+401	open	—	03-02 10:42
bitcoin above 72k on march 10	1	$50	253	0	+253	open	—	03-10 08:20
Will Trump talk to Vladimir Putin in April?	1	$50	125	0	+125	open	—	04-02 09:09
iran leadership change by march 31	1	$50	70	0	+70	open	—	03-10 08:17
bitcoin above 70k on march 10	1	$50	63	0	+63	open	—	03-10 08:21
us escorts commercial ship through hormuz by march 31	1	$50	63	0	+63	open	—	03-18 10:46

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
05-10 05:42:57	Will Trump visit China by June 30?	No	BUY	143	3¢	$5	0xeafe27…
05-10 05:42:48	Will Trump visit China by May 31?	No	BUY	196	5¢	$10	0x3ddefe…
05-10 05:42:41	Will Trump visit China by May 15?	No	BUY	100	10¢	$10	0x4d77f1…
05-10 05:42:08	Iran closes its airspace by May 31?	Yes	BUY	69	29¢	$20	0x37c141…
05-10 05:41:33	Iran closes its airspace by May 15?	Yes	BUY	167	12¢	$20	0x861d0f…
05-10 05:40:04	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026?	No	BUY	116	86¢	$100	0x8d0e78…
05-05 16:24:36	Iran closes its airspace by May 8?	Yes	BUY	56	18¢	$10	0xa18298…
05-05 09:46:18	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?	No	SELL	114	100¢	$114	0x233571…
05-05 09:46:08	US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 5, 2026?	No	SELL	134	100¢	$134	0x2543a7…
04-24 07:47:14	will the bank of russia decrease the key rate after the april meeting	No	BUY	92	2¢	$2	0xb2756f…
04-23 12:55:52	US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 30, 2026?	No	SELL	333	55¢	$184	0xd8300a…
04-23 12:54:36	Will Trump talk to Mohammed bin Salman in April?	No	SELL	67	32¢	$21	0xc4d2d0…
04-23 12:49:50	US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 5, 2026?	No	BUY	134	37¢	$50	0xf32e67…
04-23 12:49:50	US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 25, 2026?	No	BUY	112	89¢	$100	0x470924…
04-16 08:13:10	US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 30, 2026?	No	BUY	333	12¢	$40	0xffd557…
04-16 08:12:40	US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 22, 2026?	No	BUY	307	33¢	$100	0x7cbd5a…
04-16 08:12:40	us x iran diplomatic meeting by april 18 2026 456	No	BUY	112	90¢	$100	0x763b16…
04-02 09:12:35	US forces enter Iran by April 30?	No	BUY	251	40¢	$100	0x1fbe37…
04-02 09:12:31	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?	No	BUY	114	88¢	$100	0xa938c2…
04-02 09:09:51	Will Trump talk to Mark Carney in April?	No	BUY	334	3¢	$10	0xd90888…
04-02 09:09:51	Will Trump talk to Mark Rutte in April?	No	BUY	174	6¢	$10	0x45a627…
04-02 09:09:49	Will Trump talk to Vladimir Putin in April?	Yes	BUY	125	40¢	$50	0x9b54e3…
04-02 09:09:49	Will Trump talk to Mohammed bin Salman in April?	No	BUY	67	15¢	$10	0x623b6c…
04-02 09:09:31	Will Trump talk to Volodymyr Zelenskyy in April?	Yes	BUY	164	61¢	$100	0xfc96f1…
04-02 09:06:35	us forces enter iran by march 31 222 191 243 517 878 439 519	No	SELL	5	100¢	$5	0xd4f457…
03-24 16:07:55	us x iran ceasefire by april 15	No	BUY	147	68¢	$100	0x4c151a…
03-24 16:07:41	us x iran ceasefire by march 31	No	BUY	115	87¢	$100	0xa40d85…
03-24 16:06:27	will 15 19 ships transit the strait of hormuz between march 17 23	Yes	SELL	812	42¢	$344	0x4f0043…
03-18 10:53:25	will 30 34 ships transit the strait of hormuz between march 17 23	Yes	BUY	71	14¢	$10	0x4c4dd8…
03-18 10:53:17	will 40 44 ships transit the strait of hormuz between march 17 23	Yes	BUY	82	12¢	$10	0xcea954…
03-18 10:50:23	will fewer than 10 ships transit the strait of hormuz between march 17 23	Yes	BUY	832	4¢	$30	0xac236a…
03-18 10:50:13	will 15 19 ships transit the strait of hormuz between march 17 23	Yes	BUY	812	4¢	$30	0xf87f9e…
03-18 10:50:11	will 10 14 ships transit the strait of hormuz between march 17 23	Yes	BUY	985	3¢	$29	0x6710cd…
03-18 10:46:41	us escorts commercial ship through hormuz by march 31	No	BUY	63	79¢	$50	0x836159…
03-18 10:43:27	will bitcoin reach 80k in march 2026	Yes	BUY	128	39¢	$50	0x90274f…
03-18 10:43:19	will bitcoin dip to 60k in march 2026	Yes	BUY	333	9¢	$30	0x9062eb…
03-11 09:06:27	us forces enter iran by march 31 222 191 243 517 878 439 519	No	BUY	5	65¢	$3	0xb51d10…
03-11 09:06:15	us forces enter iran by march 14 337	No	BUY	66	91¢	$60	0x28f8a2…
03-10 08:21:29	bitcoin above 70k on march 10	Yes	BUY	63	79¢	$50	0xe019ac…
03-10 08:20:57	bitcoin above 74k on march 10	Yes	BUY	601	3¢	$20	0x653990…
03-10 08:20:55	bitcoin above 72k on march 10	Yes	BUY	253	20¢	$50	0x9c2515…
03-10 08:19:07	will iran strike israel on march 10	No	BUY	45	22¢	$10	0x923c31…
03-10 08:17:39	iran leadership change by march 31	No	BUY	70	71¢	$50	0x07ce4b…
03-10 08:17:19	Iran leadership change by March 13?	No	BUY	110	91¢	$100	0xb20e90…
03-10 08:16:45	us x iran ceasefire by march 15	No	BUY	109	92¢	$100	0x7b3d9a…
03-10 08:15:57	us forces enter iran by march 14 337	No	BUY	112	89¢	$100	0xe8b439…
03-10 08:13:33	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	333	18¢	$60	0xfe7d1d…
03-06 08:47:31	bitcoin above 70k on march 6	No	BUY	36	25¢	$9	0x47c90b…
03-06 08:46:35	bun bay moe 2026 03 06 bay	No	BUY	56	18¢	$10	0x4256a6…
03-06 08:35:11	will the iranian regime fall by march 31	No	BUY	114	87¢	$100	0x950e37…
03-05 09:16:37	will us or israel strike iran on march 8 2026	No	BUY	455	2¢	$10	0x9a9184…
03-05 09:16:29	will us or israel strike iran on march 7 2026	No	BUY	364	1¢	$5	0xaa4970…
03-05 09:16:17	will us or israel strike iran on march 6 2026	No	BUY	304	1¢	$2	0x07f2a0…
03-05 09:16:13	will us or israel strike iran on march 5 2026	No	BUY	363	0¢	$1	0xa701ea…
03-05 08:24:21	will bill clintons remarks not air	No	BUY	522	2¢	$10	0xbb1357…
03-05 08:23:41	will bill clinton say secretary during his epstein testimony	Yes	BUY	224	0¢	$1	0xf24073…
03-05 08:23:25	will bill clinton say silence during his epstein testimony	Yes	BUY	164	1¢	$1	0x1bcc92…
03-05 08:23:19	will bill clinton say hillary during his epstein testimony	Yes	BUY	357	1¢	$5	0x746264…
03-05 08:23:07	will bill clinton say israel during his epstein testimony	Yes	BUY	77	1¢	$1	0x9f72f6…
03-05 08:22:57	will bill clinton say president or trump 3 times during his epstein testimony	Yes	BUY	260	1¢	$2	0x3efb2e…
03-05 08:22:49	will bill clinton say epstein or island 10 times during his epstein testimony	Yes	BUY	100	1¢	$1	0x011526…
03-05 08:20:41	fed rate cut by march 2026 meeting	Yes	BUY	515	2¢	$10	0x258d98…
03-05 08:19:51	us forces seize another oil tanker by march 7	Yes	BUY	225	9¢	$20	0x1395f6…
03-05 08:18:57	us forces enter iran by march 7	No	BUY	236	85¢	$200	0x0eceb2…
03-02 12:51:57	us x iran ceasefire by march 15	Yes	BUY	107	28¢	$30	0x709084…
03-02 12:51:55	us x iran ceasefire by march 6	No	BUY	108	93¢	$100	0xfe20fe…
03-02 10:42:43	khamenei out as supreme leader of iran by february 28	No	BUY	5,000	0¢	$10	0x5d8347…
03-02 10:42:13	will mrbeasts million dollar puzzle be solved by march 31	No	BUY	334	15¢	$50	0x4fa22e…
03-02 08:26:41	will mrbeasts million dollar puzzle be solved by march 31	No	BUY	67	15¢	$10	0xe0b682…
03-02 08:26:19	will mrbeasts million dollar puzzle be solved by march 15	No	BUY	160	31¢	$50	0x19844d…
02-27 14:16:01	will the us not strike iran by february 28 2026	No	SELL	1,948	27¢	$530	0x8ef0c7…
02-26 11:40:52	btc updown 5m 1772106000	Up	BUY	13	75¢	$10	0xd368b4…
02-26 11:39:42	will the bank of russia make no change to the key rate after the march meeting	Yes	BUY	316	32¢	$100	0xc0e08a…
02-26 11:38:36	will trump talk to volodymyr zelenskyy in february	No	BUY	6,360	0¢	$10	0xd2fb1a…
02-26 10:59:56	will company b be accused of insider trading	No	BUY	21	83¢	$18	0xbf65fd…
02-26 10:59:22	will axiom be accused of insider trading	No	BUY	335	60¢	$200	0x4c4803…
02-26 10:16:42	US strikes Iran by March 1, 2026?	No	BUY	1,136	88¢	$1,000	0x608d57…
02-26 10:15:24	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	333	15¢	$50	0x4a9a2f…
02-26 10:13:26	bitcoin above 66k on february 28	No	BUY	158	19¢	$30	0x4cfcfa…
02-26 10:11:38	will the us not strike iran by february 28 2026	No	BUY	1,948	10¢	$200	0x277306…
02-26 10:10:16	US strikes Iran by March 8, 2026?	No	BUY	687	73¢	$500	0xc67273…