Wallet — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$69

Unrealized P&L

+$0

Hit rate

64.6%

Resolved

239

Trades

648

lifetime

Volume

$927

lifetime

Avg / trade

Open exposure

7 positions

First seen

2026-08-26

last 10-27 04:53

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 47 days

Categories

Other

70% 53% +$42

Politics

15% 41% -$1

Tech

12% 43% +$29

Sports

3% 29% $0

Pop-Culture

0% 0% $0

Crypto

0% 100% +$0

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

63 active days in 12wk • peak 29 trades/day

Open positions (7) Resolved markets (23) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will the Republicans win the Michigan Senate race in 2026?	No	+3	$2	68¢	$2	$0	10-26 13:21
Will Puma Shen win the next Taipei Mayor election?	Yes	+5	$1	35¢	$2	+$1	10-03 18:36
Will "Remain" win the Alberta independence referendum by 40–60%?	Yes	+2	$1	99¢	$2	+$1	10-11 04:47
Will the Republicans win the Montana Senate race in 2026?	Yes	+1	$1	92¢	$1	$0	10-26 11:55
Will Dan Sullivan win the Alaska Senate race in 2026?	Yes	+4	$1	26¢	$1	$0	10-26 13:20
Will the Republicans win the Florida governor race in 2026?	Yes	+1	$1	80¢	$1	$0	10-26 11:55
Will Anthropic's initial public offering occur in October 2026 (ET)?	Yes	+18	$1	1¢	$0	-$1	09-29 07:02

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Will DeepSeek have the highest OpenRouter market share the week of October 12?	1	$20	23	0	+23	Yes	+$3	10-12 18:01
Will MiniMax have the best Image-to-Video AI at the end of September 2026?	3	$18	11	11	+0	Yes	+$2	09-27 02:09
Will Claude go down 5-7 times in August?	6	$18	33	19	+14	Yes	+$24	08-30 19:49
Will Moonshot have the best Code Arena \| WebDev AI at the end of September 2026?	4	$17	10	10	+0	No	+$2	09-03 15:20
Will Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins win the 2026 Alaska governor election?	2	$16	12	12	+0	open	—	09-20 15:03
Will Claude go down 5-7 times in October?	6	$15	12	12	+0	open	—	10-25 09:10
Will Alexander Zverev win the 2026 Men's US Open?	5	$14	12	12	+0	Yes	+$8	09-13 20:22
Will Google have the best Text-to-Video AI at the end of September 2026?	2	$14	8	8	+0	Yes	+$2	09-26 04:24
Will Genta Koja win the 2026 Okinawa gubernatorial election?	2	$13	13	13	+0	Yes	+$5	09-08 20:34
Will Anthropic be the second-best Code Arena \| WebDev AI lab at the end of September 2026?	6	$12	21	21	+0	No	+$4	09-23 11:33
Will there be between 25 and 29 average daily transits of the Bab el-Mandeb Strait on September 30?	5	$11	10	10	+0	Yes	+$3	09-30 16:20
Will USD be between 2.1M and 2.2M Iranian rials on August 31?	2	$10	9	9	+0	Yes	+$7	08-31 18:32
Will Elon Musk’s net worth be between $900B and $1.00T on October 31?	3	$10	15	15	+0	open	—	10-22 20:18
Will the Green Party candidate win less than 20% of the vote in the Holborn and St Pancras by-election?	2	$9	5	5	+0	No	+$1	10-08 05:27
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from August 29 to August 31, 2026?	2	$9	8	8	+0	Yes	+$1	08-30 19:50
Will Meta be the #3 AI Lab at the end of October 2026 (Style Control On)?	4	$9	10	10	+0	open	—	10-08 05:27
Will "Practical Magic 2" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than 38m?	3	$9	9	9	+0	Yes	+$7	09-10 17:28
Will OpenRouter process between 675T and 725T tokens from Sep 28 to Oct 25?	4	$8	9	9	+0	Yes	-$1	10-17 16:44
Will Elon Musk’s net worth be between $900B and $1.00T on September 30?	2	$8	5	5	+0	Yes	+$2	09-30 15:51
Will Moonshot be the third-best Chinese AI company at the end of September 2026?	3	$8	9	9	+0	Yes	+$5	09-18 11:39
Will Claude go down fewer than 5 times in October?	7	$7	24	11	+13	open	—	10-18 20:57
Will "You Can See Everything" 2nd Weekend Box Office be at least $21M?	3	$7	8	8	+0	open	—	10-24 21:44
Will Anthropic have the best AI model on LiveBench (Mathematics) at the end of September 2026?	3	$7	6	6	+0	Yes	+$3	09-06 05:02
Will Z.ai be the third-best Chinese AI company at the end of September 2026?	2	$6	7	7	+0	No	-$4	09-18 11:39
Will there be exactly 2 North Korea tests in September 2026?	3	$6	21	5	+16	Yes	+$18	09-29 03:09
Will Google have the highest OpenRouter market share the week of September 28?	2	$6	9	9	+0	No	+$4	10-03 06:31
Will Denny Tamaki win the 2026 Okinawa gubernatorial election?	2	$6	6	6	+0	No	-$2	09-08 20:34
Will Elon Musk’s net worth be between $1.00T and $1.10T on September 30?	2	$6	3	3	+0	No	$0	09-09 16:28
Will Elon Musk’s net worth be between $1.00T and $1.10T on October 31?	4	$6	7	7	+0	open	—	10-22 16:38
Will Linke win at least 23% of all valid second votes?	2	$5	5	5	+0	Yes	+$4	09-21 05:42

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
10-27 05:41:02	Will Anthropic IPO on November 27, 2026?	No	BUY	2	85¢	$1	0xc76a7d…
10-27 05:40:42	Will Anthropic IPO on November 20, 2026?	Yes	BUY	6	16¢	$1	0x14b521…
10-27 05:40:41	Will Anthropic IPO on November 19, 2026?	Yes	BUY	6	17¢	$1	0xc1bb6e…
10-27 05:32:44	Will "Wicker" score at least 96 on the Rotten Tomatoes Tomatometer?	No	BUY	2	81¢	$2	0x094dc2…
10-27 05:06:21	Will Anthropic IPO by November 18, 2026?	No	BUY	2	64¢	$1	0x5f41e8…
10-27 05:05:29	Will Anthropic IPO by November 16, 2026?	No	BUY	2	89¢	$2	0x393462…
10-27 05:04:59	Will Anthropic IPO on November 27, 2026?	No	BUY	2	90¢	$2	0x173ab8…
10-27 04:53:09	will the 2026 league of legends world championship peak concurrent viewers be at least 6 25 million	No	BUY	2	60¢	$1	0x65b0a1…
10-27 04:53:05	will the 2026 league of legends world championship peak concurrent viewers be at least 6 5 million	No	BUY	2	80¢	$2	0x47337f…
10-26 13:21:15	Will the Republicans win the Michigan Senate race in 2026?	No	BUY	3	70¢	$2	0xa43e8b…
10-26 13:20:59	Will Dan Sullivan win the Alaska Senate race in 2026?	Yes	BUY	4	26¢	$1	0xe07650…
10-26 11:55:33	Will the Republicans win the Florida governor race in 2026?	Yes	BUY	1	82¢	$1	0xecf4e5…
10-26 11:55:05	Will the Republicans win the Montana Senate race in 2026?	Yes	BUY	1	93¢	$1	0x8fdf7b…
10-25 16:18:18	Will Carolyn Parrish win the 2026 Mississauga mayoral election?	No	SELL	1	70¢	$1	0xed7021…
10-25 12:07:54	Will voter turnout in the 2026 Serbian parliamentary election be 70% or more?	No	SELL	3	27¢	$1	0x3924a6…
10-25 09:16:56	Will Vance peak at Category 2?	Yes	SELL	1	83¢	$1	0x5b091c…
10-25 09:10:42	Will Claude go down 5-7 times in October?	Yes	SELL	12	82¢	$10	0xbe1598…
10-24 21:44:45	Will "You Can See Everything" 2nd Weekend Box Office be at least $21M?	No	SELL	4	85¢	$3	0xd24d40…
10-24 20:53:08	Will EU emergency diesel stocks be at least 36M tonnes at end of October 2026?	No	SELL	1	70¢	$1	0x32437f…
10-24 20:49:17	Will Mexico GDP growth in Q3 2026 be between 2.0% and 2.5%?	Yes	SELL	3	17¢	$1	0xbc3a62…
10-24 20:49:11	Will Mexico GDP growth in Q3 2026 be between 1.5% and 2.0%?	Yes	SELL	9	7¢	$1	0x6045be…
10-24 20:48:57	Will Mexico GDP growth in Q3 2026 be between 3.0% and 3.5%?	No	SELL	2	58¢	$1	0x57f64f…
10-24 16:20:08	Will Moonshot be the third-best Chinese AI company at the end of October 2026?	Yes	SELL	3	14¢	$0	0xd0fc15…
10-24 16:20:05	Will Z.ai be the third-best Chinese AI company at the end of October 2026?	Yes	SELL	4	12¢	$1	0xf8c56b…
10-24 15:14:18	Will Vance peak at Category 2?	Yes	BUY	1	70¢	$1	0xaffd47…
10-24 12:51:14	Will Canada's GDP growth rate MoM in August 2026 be between 0.4% and 0.5%?	No	BUY	1	85¢	$1	0x9a0e3a…
10-24 04:47:29	will kimi k3pt1 pro debut at a score of at least 1510 by june 30 2027	No	BUY	1	88¢	$1	0x5a025e…
10-24 04:46:57	will kimi k3pt1 pro debut in the top 5 of the text arena leaderboard by june 30 2027	No	BUY	1	82¢	$1	0x5e33c6…
10-24 04:35:21	Lyon curfew effectively lifted by October 31?	Yes	SELL	2	48¢	$1	0x843d95…
10-24 04:35:00	Will the next Fable model (5.2+) debut at a score of at least 1540 by June 30, 2027?	No	SELL	1	80¢	$1	0x221f6c…
10-24 04:26:12	Will "You Can See Everything" 2nd Weekend Box Office be at least $21M?	No	SELL	4	76¢	$3	0xf391e8…
10-24 04:21:45	Will Vance peak at Category 4?	No	BUY	1	89¢	$1	0x25f657…
10-23 18:39:26	Will Philip Brown win the 2026 Charlottetown mayoral election?	Yes	BUY	2	45¢	$1	0xb8de03…
10-23 18:34:48	Will Bonnie Crombie win the 2026 Mississauga mayoral election?	Yes	BUY	2	51¢	$1	0xd82d5f…
10-23 18:34:42	Will Carolyn Parrish win the 2026 Mississauga mayoral election?	No	BUY	1	72¢	$1	0x51c2d5…
10-23 12:18:30	Will "You Can See Everything" 2nd Weekend Box Office be at least $21M?	No	BUY	8	13¢	$1	0xa03265…
10-23 05:36:09	Will NVIDIA (NVDA) Q3 Data Center revenue be above $100B?	Yes	BUY	1	84¢	$1	0x4a5777…
10-23 05:31:09	Will Anthropic have the best AI Agent at the end of October 2026?	Yes	BUY	2	89¢	$2	0x19be12…
10-23 05:21:41	Will the Ornn RTX 5090 Index be less than $0.55 on November 30, 2026?	No	BUY	1	84¢	$1	0xd0d8bc…
10-23 05:20:36	Will the Ornn RTX 5090 Index be at least $0.60 on October 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	1	92¢	$1	0x6295d0…
10-23 04:53:56	Will 30-34 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between October 19-October 25?	No	SELL	1	86¢	$1	0xbe9ae8…
10-23 04:53:38	Will 30-34 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between October 19-October 25?	No	BUY	1	89¢	$1	0x91bc47…
10-23 04:42:53	Will Broad Front (FA) win the second-most seats in the 2026 Spanish general election?	No	BUY	2	92¢	$2	0x3c0b9d…
10-23 04:42:30	Will Vox win the third-most seats in the 2026 Spanish general election?	Yes	BUY	1	89¢	$1	0x99a35e…
10-22 20:18:20	Will Elon Musk’s net worth be between $900B and $1.00T on October 31?	Yes	SELL	11	48¢	$5	0x01bfc6…
10-22 20:16:26	Will Together win 17-19 seats in the 2026 Knesset elections?	No	BUY	1	80¢	$1	0xa25628…
10-22 19:41:48	Will Kyle Barrett win the next Launceston mayoral election?	No	BUY	1	85¢	$1	0xa2f0bd…
10-22 19:30:23	Will Brett Whiteley win the next Latrobe mayoral election?	No	BUY	3	38¢	$1	0xac3f93…
10-22 17:09:35	Will Vance peak at Category 1 or weaker?	No	BUY	2	89¢	$1	0xfa93db…
10-22 16:38:51	Will Elon Musk’s net worth be between $1.00T and $1.10T on October 31?	Yes	SELL	2	26¢	$1	0xf503eb…
10-22 16:29:18	Will Chang San-cheng win the next Taoyuan Mayor election?	Yes	BUY	1	84¢	$1	0x55994d…
10-22 16:28:57	Will Ann Kao win the next Hsinchu City Mayor election?	Yes	BUY	1	90¢	$1	0xfdc29c…
10-22 15:32:51	Will the National Party win 35-39 seats in the New Zealand House of Representatives in the 2026 New Zealand legislative election?	Yes	BUY	3	35¢	$1	0x4909e6…
10-22 12:11:32	Will Christopher Luxon be the next Prime Minister of New Zealand after the 2026 elections?	No	BUY	2	47¢	$1	0x23b6de…
10-22 12:11:26	Will the next governing coalition of New Zealand include National + ACT + NZF?	Yes	BUY	3	39¢	$1	0x28a2a3…
10-22 12:01:23	Will the next governing coalition of New Zealand include National + ACT + NZF?	Yes	BUY	2	43¢	$1	0xdf3688…
10-22 12:01:15	Will Christopher Luxon be the next Prime Minister of New Zealand after the 2026 elections?	No	BUY	2	46¢	$1	0x246701…
10-22 10:53:36	Will PP win the most seats in Palencia in the 2026 Spanish general election?	Yes	BUY	2	51¢	$1	0xf6c8c9…
10-22 10:41:42	Will PP win the most seats in Ciudad Real in the 2026 Spanish general election?	Yes	BUY	1	74¢	$1	0x024ac1…
10-22 10:28:27	Will PSOE win the most seats in Cantabria in the 2026 Spanish general election?	No	BUY	3	78¢	$2	0xd08aa9…
10-22 07:08:35	Will Broad Front (FA) win the most seats in Seville in the 2026 Spanish general election?	No	BUY	1	93¢	$1	0x640272…
10-22 07:02:20	Will PP win the Melilla seat in the 2026 Spanish general election?	Yes	BUY	1	80¢	$1	0xafd855…
10-22 06:57:30	Will PP win the most seats in Almería in the 2026 Spanish general election?	Yes	BUY	1	75¢	$1	0x590d02…
10-22 06:40:29	will broad front fa win fewer than 6 seats in the 2026 spanish general election	No	BUY	2	43¢	$1	0x0de6e4…
10-22 06:32:05	Will BNG win exactly 0 seats in the 2026 Spanish general election?	No	BUY	1	71¢	$1	0x61fb09…
10-22 06:09:02	Will PSOE receive less than 24% of the vote in the 2026 Spanish general election?	No	BUY	1	89¢	$1	0x935c4c…
10-22 05:51:37	Spain General Election: SALF wins a seat?	No	BUY	1	81¢	$1	0x3217de…
10-22 05:42:52	Will Vox receive 22% or more of the vote in the 2026 Spanish general election?	No	BUY	1	80¢	$1	0xf060d9…
10-22 05:42:47	Will Vox receive 22% or more of the vote in the 2026 Spanish general election?	No	BUY	1	80¢	$1	0x504578…
10-22 05:26:35	Will total votes cast in the 2026 midterm election for Senator from Iowa be between 1,450,000 and 1,500,000?	No	SELL	1	67¢	$1	0xfac321…
10-21 17:28:24	Will total votes cast in the 2026 midterm election for Senator from Iowa be between 1,500,000 and 1,550,000?	No	BUY	1	82¢	$1	0x43367e…
10-21 17:27:15	Will total votes cast in the 2026 midterm election for Senator from Iowa be between 1,450,000 and 1,500,000?	No	BUY	1	71¢	$1	0x8d9bae…
10-21 17:22:17	Will total votes cast in the 2026 midterm election for Senator from Iowa be between 1,500,000 and 1,550,000?	No	BUY	1	82¢	$1	0xb54fe0…
10-21 16:09:03	Will EU emergency diesel stocks be at least 36M tonnes at end of October 2026?	No	BUY	1	78¢	$1	0x50dce6…
10-21 04:16:51	Will Elon Musk’s net worth be between $1.00T and $1.10T on October 31?	Yes	BUY	2	43¢	$1	0x7e9f53…
10-21 04:13:35	Will Elon Musk’s net worth be between $800B and $900B on October 31?	Yes	SELL	5	10¢	$1	0x743bd7…
10-21 03:47:44	Will Google be the third-best AI Agent Lab at the end of October 2026?	Yes	SELL	1	61¢	$1	0xdf2c2e…
10-21 03:44:38	Will OpenRouter process between 625T and 675T tokens from Sep 28 to Oct 25?	Yes	SELL	2	22¢	$0	0xa369d9…
10-20 17:41:36	Will Google be the third-best AI Agent Lab at the end of October 2026?	Yes	BUY	1	80¢	$1	0x4ccee1…
10-20 17:31:36	Will Democrats win fewer than 7 of the US House seats bordering Mexico in the 2026 midterm elections?	No	BUY	1	89¢	$1	0x1ce442…
10-20 17:18:12	Will the October 2026 unemployment rate be 4.1%?	Yes	SELL	3	27¢	$1	0x87747f…
10-20 16:19:00	Will UK annual inflation be between 3.1% and 3.3% in September?	Yes	BUY	9	11¢	$1	0xc12fa4…
10-20 15:50:29	Will UK annual inflation be between 3.4% and 3.6% in September?	Yes	BUY	3	72¢	$2	0xdaa110…
10-20 15:33:14	Will UK annual inflation be between 3.1% and 3.3% in September?	Yes	BUY	12	8¢	$1	0xaf796d…
10-20 15:25:30	Lyon curfew effectively lifted by October 31?	Yes	BUY	2	63¢	$1	0x31cd58…
10-20 13:47:18	Will "Ali G: Who Iz I?" score at least 90 on the Rotten Tomatoes Tomatometer?	No	BUY	1	94¢	$1	0x003d29…
10-19 06:54:38	Will OpenRouter process between 625T and 675T tokens from Sep 28 to Oct 25?	Yes	BUY	2	60¢	$1	0x9ebf59…
10-19 05:08:11	Will "Grand Theft Auto VI Launch Trailer" get between 40 and 60 million views on week 1?	Yes	SELL	1	32¢	$0	0x4646f8…
10-19 05:08:06	Will "Grand Theft Auto VI Launch Trailer" get between 60 and 80 million views on week 1?	No	SELL	1	32¢	$0	0x1353b3…
10-18 20:57:24	Will Claude go down fewer than 5 times in October?	Yes	SELL	2	46¢	$1	0xb7ff9b…
10-18 17:17:05	Will Anthropic have the best AI model on LiveBench (Overall) at the end of October 2026?	Yes	SELL	2	82¢	$1	0x171498…
10-18 16:21:18	Will Champi peak as a Very strong typhoon?	Yes	SELL	2	46¢	$1	0x2325fd…
10-18 16:09:59	Will Champi peak as a Very strong typhoon?	Yes	BUY	2	50¢	$1	0x9585ba…
10-18 11:16:36	Will Teeny Brumby win the next Burnie mayoral election?	Yes	BUY	2	44¢	$1	0xaf75e1…
10-18 08:28:26	Will Claude go down fewer than 5 times in October?	Yes	SELL	2	46¢	$1	0x9eef28…
10-18 05:30:26	Will Claude go down fewer than 5 times in October?	Yes	SELL	3	41¢	$1	0x774a42…
10-17 20:25:20	Will Meta be the third-best AI lab at the end of October 2026?	Yes	SELL	3	91¢	$3	0x92b299…
10-17 16:44:41	Will OpenRouter process between 675T and 725T tokens from Sep 28 to Oct 25?	Yes	SELL	9	43¢	$4	0xb667d6…
10-17 16:40:36	Will "Sense and Sensibility" Opening Weekend Box Office be at least 8m?	No	SELL	2	96¢	$2	0x9840da…
10-17 15:14:26	will the republicans win leavenworth county in the kansas senate race in 2026	Yes	BUY	2	61¢	$1	0x6e303e…