Forked-Shirt — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$18

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

10.5%

Resolved

Trades

517

lifetime

Volume

$14.7K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$28

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-03-17

last 06-06 11:32

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 4 days

Categories

Other

61% — —

Politics

26% — —

Tech

7% — —

Sports

5% 50% $-18

Crypto

1% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

28 active days in 12wk • peak 24 trades/day

Open positions Resolved markets Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by June 30th?	12	$690	449	449	+0	open	—	05-01 20:18
ucl ars spo1 2026 04 15 ars	7	$621	768	760	+8	open	—	04-15 20:46
Will Rafael López Aliaga and Keiko Fujimori advance to the runoff?	3	$549	427	427	+0	open	—	04-13 18:25
Anthropic valued higher than OpenAI in 2026?	10	$463	304	301	+4	open	—	05-03 07:20
Will Rafael López Aliaga finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?	4	$428	586	586	+0	open	—	04-15 05:08
Will Anthropic have the #1 AI model at the end of April 2026 (Style Control On)?	8	$360	210	210	+0	open	—	04-28 10:56
DeepSeek V4 released by April 30?	9	$340	230	230	+0	open	—	04-23 05:43
will tisza respect and freedom party tisza win the most seats in the next hungarian parliamentary election	11	$338	375	126	+250	open	—	04-11 21:19
Will Keiko Fujimori finish in first place in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?	3	$331	190	190	+0	open	—	04-13 07:16
US x Iran meeting by June 30, 2026?	4	$310	201	201	+0	open	—	04-08 06:18
bun pau bay 2026 04 11 bay	4	$249	147	145	+1	open	—	04-11 21:19
bun bay stu 2026 04 19 bay	4	$240	142	141	+1	open	—	04-19 18:36
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by May 31st?	7	$227	373	178	+196	open	—	05-01 20:31
US x Iran ceasefire before Trump visits China?	3	$225	138	138	+0	open	—	04-08 06:21
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?	9	$205	168	168	+0	open	—	04-22 12:09
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar?	2	$204	144	144	+0	open	—	04-09 09:00
ucl spo1 ars 2026 04 07 ars	8	$183	321	315	+6	open	—	04-07 20:49
Will Robert Golob be the next Prime Minister of Slovenia?	4	$168	128	128	+0	open	—	03-25 16:55
cs2 vit fal2 2026 04 15	2	$165	152	151	+1	open	—	04-15 20:59
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-04-25?	3	$159	260	254	+6	open	—	04-25 15:13
bun bay uni 2026 03 21 bay	3	$147	80	80	+0	open	—	03-21 16:47
ucl psg1 liv1 2026 04 08 psg1	3	$146	95	94	+1	open	—	04-08 20:50
fif col fra 2026 03 29 fra	3	$141	239	0	+239	open	—	03-29 05:36
will the freedom movement gs win the most seats in the 2026 slovenian parliamentary election 529	2	$130	82	82	+0	open	—	03-23 12:30
ucl rma1 bay1 2026 04 07 bay1	4	$129	101	99	+2	open	—	04-07 20:12
will the indian national congress inc win the most seats in the 2026 kerala legislative assembly election	5	$119	85	85	+0	open	—	04-07 20:59
bun fre bay 2026 04 04 bay	5	$118	102	67	+36	open	—	04-01 05:31
will voter turnout be 7780 in the 2026 hungarian parliamentary election 448	2	$117	83	83	+0	open	—	04-13 05:38
mlb bal cws 2026 04 07	2	$116	79	78	+1	open	—	04-07 21:32
will claude by anthropic be 2 free app in the us apple app store on april 21	3	$113	64	64	+1	open	—	04-21 17:30

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
06-06 11:32:18	kbo han lot 2026 06 06	Hanwha Eagles	SELL	24	100¢	$24	0x5d3261…
06-05 21:15:43	kbo han lot 2026 06 06	Hanwha Eagles	BUY	24	64¢	$15	0x949327…
05-24 10:12:57	US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 25?	Yes	BUY	8	67¢	$6	0xebba6d…
05-13 05:07:22	Will the next Google Gemini model debut at a score of at least 1480?	Yes	SELL	11	1¢	$0	0xd6fcb4…
05-05 16:51:40	Wild vs. Avalanche	Avalanche	BUY	15	65¢	$10	0xa7ca2e…
05-05 16:51:08	Cavaliers vs. Pistons	Pistons	BUY	17	59¢	$10	0x8fd4f8…
05-03 07:20:42	Anthropic valued higher than OpenAI in 2026?	Yes	SELL	301	88¢	$264	0x94fbae…
05-03 05:39:46	Will the next Google Gemini model debut at a score of at least 1480?	Yes	BUY	4	74¢	$3	0xfb8158…
05-02 22:43:44	Will the next Google Gemini model debut at a score of at least 1480?	Yes	BUY	7	74¢	$5	0x6c1b15…
05-02 15:32:28	Shanxi Loongs vs. Qingdao Eagles	Shanxi Loongs	SELL	15	100¢	$15	0x00b070…
05-02 15:32:18	Ningbo Rockets vs. Zhejiang Golden Bulls	Zhejiang Golden Bulls	SELL	16	99¢	$16	0x2b3d42…
05-02 07:24:54	T20 Series Bangladesh vs Sri Lanka, Women: Bangladesh vs Sri Lanka	Sri Lanka	BUY	28	65¢	$18	0x3d20d1…
05-01 20:31:10	Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by May 31st?	No	BUY	98	5¢	$5	0x2eb8b5…
05-01 20:29:22	Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by May 31st?	No	BUY	97	5¢	$5	0x2057ed…
05-01 20:18:04	Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by June 30th?	Yes	SELL	207	96¢	$198	0xa3bc93…
05-01 13:23:48	Shanxi Loongs vs. Qingdao Eagles	Shanxi Loongs	BUY	15	65¢	$10	0x0cff99…
05-01 13:23:38	Ningbo Rockets vs. Zhejiang Golden Bulls	Zhejiang Golden Bulls	BUY	16	62¢	$10	0x00ba76…
05-01 13:18:50	Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	100	38¢	$38	0xe86873…
05-01 13:09:02	KBO: Hanwha Eagles vs. Samsung Lions	Samsung Lions	SELL	15	100¢	$15	0xb36ae0…
05-01 13:08:42	Internet Access restored in Iran by June 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	26	24¢	$6	0x1d3c44…
05-01 07:54:06	KBO: Hanwha Eagles vs. Samsung Lions	Samsung Lions	BUY	15	59¢	$9	0xa96956…
05-01 01:13:00	Pistons vs. Magic	Pistons	BUY	16	62¢	$10	0x92e95c…
05-01 01:00:26	Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs GamerLegion (BO3) - BLAST Rivals Group B	Natus Vincere	SELL	33	100¢	$33	0xb50353…
04-30 14:55:06	Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by May 31st?	Yes	SELL	34	26¢	$9	0x5a92f4…
04-30 14:54:34	S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on April 30?	Up	SELL	27	100¢	$27	0x6cd763…
04-30 14:54:24	SPY (SPY) Up or Down on April 30?	Up	SELL	19	74¢	$14	0x0316b2…
04-30 04:44:34	Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by June 30th?	Yes	BUY	7	53¢	$3	0x70feb5…
04-30 04:43:52	Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs GamerLegion (BO3) - BLAST Rivals Group B	Natus Vincere	BUY	33	76¢	$25	0xc00844…
04-30 04:42:14	S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on April 30?	Up	BUY	27	37¢	$10	0xf92a06…
04-30 04:41:28	SPY (SPY) Up or Down on April 30?	Up	BUY	19	52¢	$10	0xe51209…
04-29 08:58:24	Will Trump say "Ballroom" during King Charles visit?	Yes	SELL	40	24¢	$10	0x2d2f45…
04-29 08:58:06	US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 15, 2026?	Yes	SELL	41	32¢	$13	0xedf889…
04-29 00:58:18	Will Trump say "Ballroom" during King Charles visit?	Yes	BUY	40	63¢	$25	0x0f646a…
04-28 14:30:10	Anthropic valued higher than OpenAI in 2026?	Yes	BUY	41	67¢	$27	0x4a6de7…
04-28 14:12:58	Club Atlético de Madrid vs. Arsenal FC: Both Teams to Score	Yes	BUY	49	51¢	$25	0x708b18…
04-28 10:58:40	Will Anthropic have the #1 AI model at the end of May 2026 (Style Control On)?	Yes	BUY	36	60¢	$22	0x182faa…
04-28 10:58:04	Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	28	57¢	$16	0xcaed1d…
04-28 10:57:34	Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by June 30th?	Yes	BUY	72	53¢	$38	0x35a014…
04-28 10:57:04	Anthropic valued higher than OpenAI in 2026?	Yes	BUY	45	67¢	$30	0x292803…
04-28 10:56:44	Will Anthropic have the #1 AI model at the end of April 2026 (Style Control On)?	Yes	SELL	210	98¢	$207	0x98c5bd…
04-26 03:16:16	Will Anthropic have the #1 AI model at the end of May 2026 (Style Control On)?	Yes	BUY	40	53¢	$21	0x5fd9e3…
04-25 18:04:12	Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by June 30th?	Yes	BUY	19	58¢	$11	0x67812b…
04-25 17:18:00	Anthropic valued higher than OpenAI in 2026?	Yes	BUY	15	67¢	$10	0xd16066…
04-25 17:14:26	Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-04-25?	Yes	BUY	22	46¢	$10	0x430e66…
04-25 17:12:10	Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-04-25?	Yes	SELL	31	100¢	$31	0xf3b723…
04-25 15:22:06	Will Bayern Munich win the 2025–26 Champions League?	Yes	BUY	68	37¢	$25	0xae177d…
04-25 15:20:10	US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 15, 2026?	Yes	BUY	41	61¢	$25	0x2f53b2…
04-25 15:16:34	Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-04-28?	Yes	BUY	71	35¢	$25	0x5fe672…
04-25 15:16:08	Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-04-25?	Yes	BUY	31	80¢	$25	0x1a4164…
04-25 15:15:32	Anthropic valued higher than OpenAI in 2026?	Yes	BUY	18	67¢	$12	0xe22733…
04-25 15:14:30	Will 1. FSV Mainz 05 vs. FC Bayern München end in a draw?	Yes	SELL	73	11¢	$8	0xb39429…
04-25 15:13:06	Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-04-25?	Yes	SELL	254	40¢	$102	0xf1a044…
04-25 15:10:42	Will 1. FSV Mainz 05 vs. FC Bayern München end in a draw?	Yes	SELL	49	60¢	$29	0xbbf775…
04-25 14:18:28	Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-04-25?	Yes	BUY	182	4¢	$7	0xefb076…
04-25 14:18:12	Will 1. FSV Mainz 05 vs. FC Bayern München end in a draw?	Yes	BUY	125	8¢	$10	0xd0df16…
04-25 12:18:08	Anthropic valued higher than OpenAI in 2026?	Yes	BUY	47	67¢	$32	0x614815…
04-25 12:17:52	Will the Silicon Data H100 Index (SDH100RT) hit $2.75 (HIGH) by April 30, 2026?	No	SELL	34	92¢	$31	0x140c81…
04-23 18:28:42	lal ovi vil 2026 04 23 vil	Yes	BUY	27	45¢	$12	0x12edfb…
04-23 18:27:58	lal ray esp 2026 04 23 ray	Yes	SELL	32	39¢	$13	0x8fd6de…
04-23 17:02:40	Will Anthropic have the #1 AI model at the end of April 2026 (Style Control On)?	Yes	BUY	9	73¢	$7	0xae2b6b…
04-23 17:02:16	lal ovi vil 2026 04 23 vil	Yes	BUY	33	46¢	$15	0xbe3b03…
04-23 17:02:02	lal ray esp 2026 04 23 ray	Yes	BUY	33	46¢	$15	0x153cf0…
04-23 05:44:02	Anthropic valued higher than OpenAI in 2026?	Yes	BUY	37	67¢	$25	0xef3eca…
04-23 05:43:48	DeepSeek V4 released by April 30?	Yes	SELL	30	82¢	$25	0xb1c2c8…
04-23 05:43:04	Will Anthropic have the #1 AI model at the end of April 2026 (Style Control On)?	Yes	BUY	34	74¢	$25	0x8abd3a…
04-23 02:43:10	Will Anthropic have the #1 AI model at the end of April 2026 (Style Control On)?	Yes	BUY	27	74¢	$20	0x769b31…
04-22 12:10:44	Will Anthropic have the #1 AI model at the end of April 2026 (Style Control On)?	Yes	BUY	42	70¢	$30	0xafbb79…
04-22 12:10:30	us x iran permanent peace deal by april 22 2026	No	SELL	30	99¢	$30	0x76616e…
04-22 12:10:06	Will Anthropic have the #1 AI model at the end of April 2026 (Style Control On)?	Yes	BUY	41	69¢	$28	0x260303…
04-22 12:09:50	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?	No	SELL	31	91¢	$28	0x65d440…
04-22 03:47:00	lal bar cel 2026 04 22 bar	Yes	BUY	20	80¢	$16	0x955ee4…
04-21 19:54:40	Anthropic valued higher than OpenAI in 2026?	Yes	BUY	20	65¢	$13	0x3d5f68…
04-21 19:54:02	cde rcl tou 2026 04 21 rcl	Yes	SELL	39	93¢	$36	0xc63f81…
04-21 17:34:24	Will Anthropic have the #1 AI model at the end of April 2026 (Style Control On)?	Yes	BUY	18	77¢	$13	0x5c6533…
04-21 17:34:00	cde rcl tou 2026 04 21 rcl	Yes	BUY	39	64¢	$25	0xb05ff2…
04-21 17:33:32	lal rea ala 2026 04 21 rea	Yes	BUY	31	80¢	$25	0xdc9572…
04-21 17:30:54	will claude by anthropic be 2 free app in the us apple app store on april 21	Yes	SELL	64	100¢	$63	0x2648f5…
04-21 17:30:26	Will Anthropic have the #1 AI model at the end of April 2026 (Style Control On)?	Yes	BUY	39	77¢	$30	0xb231ce…
04-21 17:27:32	Anthropic valued higher than OpenAI in 2026?	Yes	BUY	41	61¢	$25	0xc48633…
04-21 04:34:08	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?	No	BUY	31	72¢	$22	0xc2004b…
04-20 17:52:02	Alba Berlin vs. Telekom Baskets Bonn	Alba Berlin	BUY	22	72¢	$16	0xfafc0a…
04-20 17:47:16	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?	No	SELL	23	71¢	$16	0xbbbf38…
04-19 18:46:20	Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by April 30?	Yes	BUY	21	72¢	$15	0x06d338…
04-19 18:44:38	Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by April 30?	Yes	BUY	34	73¢	$25	0x009f7e…
04-19 18:43:00	Anthropic valued higher than OpenAI in 2026?	Yes	BUY	40	62¢	$25	0x7fe3e2…
04-19 18:39:24	Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-04-25?	Yes	BUY	78	64¢	$50	0xe5f8ec…
04-19 18:38:42	will claude by anthropic be 2 free app in the us apple app store on april 21	Yes	BUY	32	78¢	$25	0xaa0c54…
04-19 18:38:18	will claude by anthropic be 2 free app in the us apple app store on april 21	Yes	BUY	32	78¢	$25	0x6371e0…
04-19 18:36:08	bun bay stu 2026 04 19 bay	Yes	SELL	141	100¢	$141	0x5ad133…
04-19 18:35:12	Will Bayern München reach the UEFA Champions League final?	Yes	SELL	44	55¢	$24	0xfffb66…
04-19 11:40:14	bun bay stu 2026 04 19 bay	Yes	BUY	68	69¢	$47	0xb0fd52…
04-19 11:33:00	Will Jared Kushner have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by April 30?	Yes	SELL	31	71¢	$22	0x6a5a12…
04-19 11:30:36	bun bay stu 2026 04 19 bay	Yes	BUY	38	69¢	$26	0x39ba8d…
04-19 11:20:12	Will USD reach 1.7M Iranian rials by April 30?	No	SELL	29	90¢	$26	0x690f01…
04-19 11:19:54	Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	43	77¢	$33	0xdea85b…
04-19 11:17:44	Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by June 30th?	Yes	BUY	79	78¢	$62	0x35cdb9…
04-19 11:16:44	Will a different combination of candidates advance to the runoff?	Yes	SELL	38	81¢	$31	0x675699…
04-19 11:16:38	Will Rafael López Aliaga finish in third place in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?	Yes	SELL	38	82¢	$31	0x095e0a…
04-18 11:57:18	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?	No	BUY	23	72¢	$16	0xb35bc3…
04-18 11:39:42	bun hof dor 2026 04 18 dor	Yes	BUY	27	37¢	$10	0xaf46e8…