Forked-Shirt — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$350

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

56.3%

Resolved

289

Trades

600

lifetime

Volume

$16.6K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$28

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-03-17

last 06-13 05:41

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 71 days

Categories

Other

61% 52% -$391

Politics

26% 42% +$4

Tech

8% 67% +$130

Sports

5% 48% -$47

Crypto

1% 60% -$46

Activity

No trades in the last 84 days (last trade 2026-06-13).

Open positions Resolved markets (30) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by June 30th?	12	$690	449	449	+0	Yes	+$62	05-01 20:18
ucl ars spo1 2026 04 15 ars	7	$621	768	760	+8	No	-$378	04-15 20:46
Will Rafael López Aliaga and Keiko Fujimori advance to the runoff?	3	$549	427	427	+0	No	-$163	04-13 18:25
Anthropic valued higher than OpenAI in 2026?	10	$463	304	301	+4	Yes	+$69	05-03 07:20
Will Rafael López Aliaga finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?	4	$428	586	586	+0	No	-$181	04-15 05:08
Will Anthropic have the #1 AI model at the end of April 2026 (Style Control On)?	8	$360	210	210	+0	Yes	+$54	04-28 10:56
DeepSeek V4 released by April 30?	9	$340	230	230	+0	Yes	+$13	04-23 05:43
will tisza respect and freedom party tisza win the most seats in the next hungarian parliamentary election	11	$338	375	126	+250	Yes	+$75	04-11 21:19
Will Keiko Fujimori finish in first place in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?	3	$331	190	190	+0	Yes	+$41	04-13 07:16
US x Iran meeting by June 30, 2026?	4	$310	201	201	+0	Yes	+$68	04-08 06:18
bun pau bay 2026 04 11 bay	4	$249	147	145	+1	Yes	+$42	04-11 21:19
bun bay stu 2026 04 19 bay	4	$240	142	141	+1	Yes	+$44	04-19 18:36
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by May 31st?	7	$227	373	178	+196	Yes	-$48	05-01 20:31
US x Iran ceasefire before Trump visits China?	3	$225	138	138	+0	Yes	+$51	04-08 06:21
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?	9	$205	168	168	+0	No	-$6	04-22 12:09
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar?	2	$204	144	144	+0	Yes	-$3	04-09 09:00
ucl spo1 ars 2026 04 07 ars	8	$183	321	315	+6	Yes	-$73	04-07 20:49
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14?	2	$179	161	161	+0	No	-$2	06-13 05:41
Will Robert Golob be the next Prime Minister of Slovenia?	4	$168	128	128	+0	No	-$3	03-25 16:55
cs2 vit fal2 2026 04 15	2	$165	152	151	+1	Team Falcons	-$72	04-15 20:59
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-04-25?	3	$159	260	254	+6	Yes	+$51	04-25 15:13
bun bay uni 2026 03 21 bay	3	$147	80	80	+0	Yes	+$12	03-21 16:47
ucl psg1 liv1 2026 04 08 psg1	3	$146	95	94	+1	Yes	+$44	04-08 20:50
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	4	$144	126	202	-77	No	+$14	05-04 18:11
fif col fra 2026 03 29 fra	3	$141	239	0	+239	Yes	+$98	03-29 05:36
Will United States win on 2026-06-12?	2	$137	92	92	+0	Yes	+$46	06-13 05:36
will the freedom movement gs win the most seats in the 2026 slovenian parliamentary election 529	2	$130	82	82	+0	Yes	+$30	03-23 12:30
ucl rma1 bay1 2026 04 07 bay1	4	$129	101	99	+2	Yes	+$41	04-07 20:12
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026?	3	$126	100	100	+0	Yes	-$8	05-13 05:07
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026?	5	$122	93	93	+0	Yes	-$9	05-13 05:06

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
06-13 05:41:06	Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14?	Yes	SELL	161	55¢	$89	0x26665d…
06-13 05:37:49	Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14?	Yes	BUY	161	56¢	$90	0x14f18b…
06-13 05:36:30	Will United States win on 2026-06-12?	Yes	SELL	92	100¢	$92	0x483abb…
06-10 09:58:09	Will United States win on 2026-06-12?	Yes	BUY	92	50¢	$46	0x4ce315…
06-10 09:57:45	Will Germany win Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	SELL	70	67¢	$47	0x7e2546…
06-07 20:31:25	Will Germany win Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	BUY	70	68¢	$48	0x30f0c6…
06-07 18:56:13	Will Denmark win on 2026-06-07?	Yes	SELL	71	69¢	$49	0x81932d…
06-06 22:33:21	Will Denmark win on 2026-06-07?	Yes	BUY	71	56¢	$40	0x85e018…
06-06 22:32:21	Will Germany win on 2026-06-06?	Yes	SELL	40	100¢	$40	0xd56a17…
06-06 11:32:36	Will Germany win on 2026-06-06?	Yes	BUY	40	59¢	$24	0x6b65fe…
06-06 11:32:18	kbo han lot 2026 06 06	Hanwha Eagles	SELL	24	100¢	$24	0x5d3261…
06-05 21:15:43	kbo han lot 2026 06 06	Hanwha Eagles	BUY	24	64¢	$15	0x949327…
05-24 10:12:57	US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 25?	Yes	BUY	8	67¢	$6	0xebba6d…
05-17 10:46:05	Will FC Machida Zelvia win on 2026-05-17?	Yes	BUY	2	64¢	$1	0x291c6b…
05-14 16:17:36	Will Girona FC win on 2026-05-14?	Yes	BUY	24	50¢	$12	0xf828be…
05-14 16:17:20	Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	136	9¢	$12	0xcb6316…
05-13 05:07:22	Will the next Google Gemini model debut at a score of at least 1480?	Yes	SELL	11	1¢	$0	0xd6fcb4…
05-13 05:07:09	US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	100	59¢	$59	0xf1a550…
05-13 05:07:04	Will Steve Witkoff attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting?	Yes	SELL	37	55¢	$20	0xf1008d…
05-13 05:06:52	US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	93	61¢	$56	0x9386f3…
05-13 05:06:41	Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Pakistan?	Yes	SELL	36	52¢	$19	0xeb5cdd…
05-06 19:10:58	US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	40	73¢	$29	0xf1f3d3…
05-06 19:10:33	Will "Mortal Kombat II" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 35m and 40m?	Yes	SELL	62	46¢	$29	0xb6ac17…
05-06 16:33:05	US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	4	78¢	$3	0xceaf57…
05-06 15:01:53	Will "Mortal Kombat II" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 35m and 40m?	Yes	BUY	62	48¢	$30	0x4aeb41…
05-06 02:45:34	US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	35	71¢	$25	0xae441b…
05-06 02:44:28	Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-06?	Yes	SELL	42	23¢	$10	0xd380e8…
05-05 16:55:34	US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	14	65¢	$9	0x8c8914…
05-05 16:53:40	Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-06?	Yes	BUY	42	24¢	$10	0xc53d75…
05-05 16:51:40	Wild vs. Avalanche	Avalanche	BUY	15	65¢	$10	0xa7ca2e…
05-05 16:51:30	Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-05?	Yes	BUY	16	62¢	$10	0x67d233…
05-05 16:51:08	Cavaliers vs. Pistons	Pistons	BUY	17	59¢	$10	0x8fd4f8…
05-05 16:47:02	Will Anthropic have the best Math AI model at the end of May 2026?	Yes	SELL	47	50¢	$24	0x9f3330…
05-05 16:46:54	Will Anthropic have the top AI model at the end of June 2026?	Yes	SELL	45	57¢	$26	0x3b17c9…
05-04 18:12:44	Will Anthropic make a deal with the Pentagon by June 30?	Yes	SELL	100	37¢	$37	0x471b7e…
05-04 18:11:22	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	Yes	SELL	202	39¢	$79	0x13c378…
05-04 14:49:06	Will Donald Trump visit China on May 13, 2026?	Yes	SELL	34	58¢	$20	0x3d63d5…
05-04 14:48:38	Will Anthropic have the #1 AI model at the end of May 2026 (Style Control On)?	Yes	SELL	75	80¢	$60	0x5160ab…
05-04 14:48:24	Will the next model released by xAI debut at a score of at least 1440?	Yes	SELL	31	69¢	$21	0xd561cb…
05-03 07:20:42	Anthropic valued higher than OpenAI in 2026?	Yes	SELL	301	88¢	$264	0x94fbae…
05-03 05:39:46	Will the next Google Gemini model debut at a score of at least 1480?	Yes	BUY	4	74¢	$3	0xfb8158…
05-02 22:43:44	Will the next Google Gemini model debut at a score of at least 1480?	Yes	BUY	7	74¢	$5	0x6c1b15…
05-02 21:11:44	Will the next model released by xAI debut at a score of at least 1440?	Yes	BUY	31	65¢	$20	0x221e62…
05-02 21:09:12	Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-05-02?	Yes	SELL	18	100¢	$18	0x8397e7…
05-02 21:09:04	Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-05-03?	Yes	SELL	18	55¢	$10	0xff1dfc…
05-02 19:52:20	Will Donald Trump visit China on May 13, 2026?	Yes	BUY	34	58¢	$20	0x4e1d96…
05-02 18:03:08	Will Lando Norris win the 2026 F1 Miami Grand Prix?	Yes	BUY	26	39¢	$10	0xca2bcc…
05-02 17:27:04	Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-02?	Yes	SELL	25	99¢	$25	0xe4efe6…
05-02 16:51:02	Will Steve Witkoff attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting?	Yes	BUY	37	68¢	$25	0xb789d6…
05-02 15:32:28	Shanxi Loongs vs. Qingdao Eagles	Shanxi Loongs	SELL	15	100¢	$15	0x00b070…
05-02 15:32:18	Ningbo Rockets vs. Zhejiang Golden Bulls	Zhejiang Golden Bulls	SELL	16	99¢	$16	0x2b3d42…
05-02 14:29:00	Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-02?	Yes	BUY	25	67¢	$17	0xfa3d82…
05-02 14:28:36	Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-02?	Yes	BUY	35	72¢	$25	0xfa6340…
05-02 14:26:14	Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-05-02?	Yes	BUY	19	53¢	$10	0xe7704c…
05-02 14:25:50	AWS service disrupted by June 30?	Yes	SELL	76	39¢	$29	0x99d6eb…
05-02 14:25:34	Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-05-02?	Yes	BUY	19	53¢	$10	0xc0d05b…
05-02 13:26:08	Will the highest temperature in London be 22°C on May 2?	Yes	SELL	25	27¢	$7	0xae0ecb…
05-02 07:24:54	T20 Series Bangladesh vs Sri Lanka, Women: Bangladesh vs Sri Lanka	Sri Lanka	BUY	28	65¢	$18	0x3d20d1…
05-02 07:20:18	Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	SELL	115	16¢	$19	0xffe276…
05-02 06:12:32	Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-05-02?	Yes	BUY	9	79¢	$7	0x05d2e3…
05-02 06:11:50	Will FC Seoul win on 2026-05-02?	Yes	BUY	20	50¢	$10	0x42516d…
05-02 06:11:26	Will Auckland FC win on 2026-05-02?	Yes	BUY	38	66¢	$25	0x7731e4…
05-02 01:10:10	Will Anthropic have the best Math AI model at the end of May 2026?	Yes	BUY	47	53¢	$25	0x7c34ae…
05-02 01:07:58	Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Pakistan?	Yes	BUY	36	69¢	$25	0xdeca58…
05-02 01:03:10	AWS service disrupted by June 30?	Yes	BUY	76	33¢	$25	0xdb1a1e…
05-01 20:33:46	US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	90	67¢	$60	0x2e7fc2…
05-01 20:33:22	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	Yes	BUY	51	49¢	$25	0xef9ae1…
05-01 20:31:10	Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by May 31st?	No	BUY	98	5¢	$5	0x2eb8b5…
05-01 20:29:22	Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by May 31st?	No	BUY	97	5¢	$5	0x2057ed…
05-01 20:18:04	Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by June 30th?	Yes	SELL	207	96¢	$198	0xa3bc93…
05-01 13:25:16	US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	11	65¢	$7	0x6f419c…
05-01 13:23:48	Shanxi Loongs vs. Qingdao Eagles	Shanxi Loongs	BUY	15	65¢	$10	0x0cff99…
05-01 13:23:38	Ningbo Rockets vs. Zhejiang Golden Bulls	Zhejiang Golden Bulls	BUY	16	62¢	$10	0x00ba76…
05-01 13:21:30	Will Anthropic make a deal with the Pentagon by June 30?	Yes	BUY	19	58¢	$11	0xf9bd0d…
05-01 13:18:50	Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	100	38¢	$38	0xe86873…
05-01 13:12:14	Will FC Andorra win on 2026-05-01?	Yes	BUY	16	62¢	$10	0x5dce99…
05-01 13:09:40	Will Anthropic make a deal with the Pentagon by June 30?	Yes	BUY	33	60¢	$20	0xed0b44…
05-01 13:09:02	KBO: Hanwha Eagles vs. Samsung Lions	Samsung Lions	SELL	15	100¢	$15	0xb36ae0…
05-01 13:08:42	Internet Access restored in Iran by June 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	26	24¢	$6	0x1d3c44…
05-01 13:08:22	Will the highest temperature in London be 22°C on May 2?	Yes	BUY	25	40¢	$10	0xb49878…
05-01 12:54:48	Will Henan FC win on 2026-05-01?	Yes	SELL	10	100¢	$10	0x830146…
05-01 12:54:40	Will Dalian Yingbo FC win on 2026-05-01?	Yes	SELL	10	96¢	$10	0xc7219f…
05-01 07:54:06	KBO: Hanwha Eagles vs. Samsung Lions	Samsung Lions	BUY	15	59¢	$9	0xa96956…
05-01 07:53:22	Will Henan FC win on 2026-05-01?	Yes	BUY	10	49¢	$5	0xe5d17d…
05-01 07:53:12	Will Dalian Yingbo FC win on 2026-05-01?	Yes	BUY	10	50¢	$5	0xfee292…
05-01 07:22:36	Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 20°C or higher on May 1?	Yes	SELL	39	2¢	$1	0x2638f5…
05-01 02:47:22	Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	100	10¢	$10	0x793597…
05-01 02:47:06	Will SpaceX IPO by June 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	40	68¢	$27	0xcbd5dc…
05-01 02:47:06	Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 20°C or higher on May 1?	Yes	SELL	7	15¢	$1	0x22fde8…
05-01 01:13:00	Pistons vs. Magic	Pistons	BUY	16	62¢	$10	0x92e95c…
05-01 01:11:32	Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 19°C on May 1?	Yes	SELL	28	39¢	$11	0x985f64…
05-01 01:09:10	Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 19°C on May 1?	Yes	BUY	28	46¢	$13	0xa08fba…
05-01 01:07:06	Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-05-03?	Yes	BUY	18	56¢	$10	0xd1d0fc…
05-01 01:06:54	Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-05-02?	Yes	BUY	18	57¢	$10	0xe27f7d…
05-01 01:00:26	Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs GamerLegion (BO3) - BLAST Rivals Group B	Natus Vincere	SELL	33	100¢	$33	0xb50353…
04-30 14:59:16	Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 20°C or higher on May 1?	Yes	BUY	47	51¢	$24	0x41dc31…
04-30 14:57:36	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	Yes	BUY	50	50¢	$25	0x2e5daa…
04-30 14:55:06	Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by May 31st?	Yes	SELL	34	26¢	$9	0x5a92f4…
04-30 14:54:34	S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on April 30?	Up	SELL	27	100¢	$27	0x6cd763…
04-30 14:54:24	SPY (SPY) Up or Down on April 30?	Up	SELL	19	74¢	$14	0x0316b2…