Vivacious-Ectoderm — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$948

Unrealized P&L

+$17

Hit rate

53.8%

Resolved

2,940

Trades

4,711

lifetime

Volume

$71.9K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$15

Open exposure

$770

7 positions

First seen

2026-03-02

last 10-26 19:59

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 137 days

Categories

Crypto

41% 52% +$1,099

Other

41% 33% -$2,235

Sports

15% 53% +$592

Politics

4% 14% -$396

Tech

0% 0% -$8

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

23 active days in 12wk • peak 11 trades/day

Open positions (7) Resolved markets (24) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will China invade Taiwan by December 31, 2027?	Yes	+4,008	$428	11¢	$421	-$7	10-23 07:11
2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House	Yes	+354	$220	66¢	$232	+$12	10-23 07:26
Will 1 Fed rate hike happen in 2026?	Yes	+178	$16	22¢	$40	+$24	09-27 16:37
Will Xi meet with Takaichi by December 31, 2026?	No	+131	$47	27¢	$35	-$12	09-28 05:34
Will Trump and Putin not meet?	Yes	+100	$26	18¢	$18	-$8	09-25 12:28
Will Houston Rockets win the 2027 NBA Finals?	Yes	+235	$6	6¢	$14	+$8	10-24 07:14
Will the Democrats win the Kansas Senate race in 2026?	Yes	+26	$10	38¢	$10	+$0	10-26 19:59

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Will China invade Taiwan by December 31, 2027?	14	$988	6,257	2,249	+4,008	open	—	10-23 07:11
lol jdg blg 2026 04 05	3	$854	442	442	+1	Bilibili Gaming	+$29	04-05 11:49
ucl lev ars 2026 03 11 ars	5	$800	1,218	0	+1,218	No	-$800	03-11 10:24
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25?	2	$700	1,319	0	+1,319	No	-$700	06-25 04:01
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2027?	9	$603	3,440	3,440	+0	open	—	10-25 17:56
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?	5	$546	714	0	+714	Yes	+$167	09-19 15:48
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals?	7	$524	483	483	+0	Yes	+$224	06-08 03:54
nba sas lac 2026 04 02	8	$517	635	319	+316	Spurs	-$207	04-02 20:44
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	9	$514	1,075	1,075	-0	No	-$499	10-25 23:53
lol wb al 2026 04 04	3	$507	283	281	+2	Anyone's Legend	+$57	04-04 13:16
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21?	1	$500	714	0	+714	Yes	+$214	06-21 03:01
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-04-01 09:50 UTC	2	$484	579	0	+579	Up	+$94	04-01 09:54
lol gen kt 2026 04 03	2	$451	359	351	+8	KT Rolster	+$259	04-03 12:39
fl1 psg tou 2026 04 03 psg	2	$445	253	253	+0	Yes	+$61	04-03 22:09
Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?	3	$406	317	317	+0	open	—	10-25 22:47
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-12 04:55 UTC	2	$396	230	228	+2	Down	+$58	03-12 05:01
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-12 04:30 UTC	4	$393	248	246	+1	Down	+$15	03-12 04:35
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-04-28?	6	$383	264	263	+1	Yes	+$144	04-28 21:11
Will Chiang Wan-an win the next Taipei Mayor election?	6	$372	259	259	+0	open	—	10-24 19:04
Will no listed leader be out before 2027?	5	$360	515	515	+0	open	—	10-02 16:27
lol dk gen 2026 04 11	4	$330	254	249	+5	Dplus KIA	+$173	04-11 12:56
ucl rma1 mnc1 2026 03 11 mnc1	5	$322	636	636	+0	No	-$296	03-11 20:45
LoL: Karmine Corp vs Bilibili Gaming (BO1) - Worlds Group Stage	2	$253	148	148	+0	Bilibili Gaming	+$43	10-26 19:46
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-12 05:00 UTC	1	$226	330	0	+330	Up	-$226	03-12 05:01
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-12 04:45 UTC	2	$223	131	130	+1	Up	+$34	03-12 04:49
Will Japan be the furthest advancing AFC nation at the World Cup?	6	$223	232	232	+0	Yes	+$23	06-30 03:46
2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House	3	$220	354	0	+354	open	—	10-23 07:26
lol blg jdg 2026 04 14	2	$219	271	0	+271	JD Gaming	-$219	04-13 04:26
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-04 07:10 UTC	1	$217	314	0	+314	Down	+$97	03-04 07:11
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-04 07:25 UTC	1	$210	415	0	+415	Up	+$205	03-04 07:24

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
10-26 19:59:30	Will the Democrats win the Kansas Senate race in 2026?	Yes	BUY	26	38¢	$10	0xf915c2…
10-26 19:58:08	Wizards vs. Hornets	Wizards	BUY	23	43¢	$10	0xff3c4b…
10-26 19:51:20	Wizards vs. Hornets	Wizards	BUY	70	43¢	$30	0x326026…
10-26 19:46:21	LoL: Karmine Corp vs Bilibili Gaming (BO1) - Worlds Group Stage	Bilibili Gaming	SELL	148	100¢	$148	0xeabc77…
10-25 23:53:56	Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Yes	SELL	1,075	1¢	$8	0xf2d80c…
10-25 23:40:53	LoL: Karmine Corp vs Bilibili Gaming (BO1) - Worlds Group Stage	Bilibili Gaming	BUY	148	71¢	$105	0xa5958a…
10-25 22:49:20	Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Yes	BUY	263	38¢	$100	0xdc858b…
10-25 22:47:20	Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?	Yes	SELL	317	65¢	$206	0x14b9d0…
10-25 22:39:08	Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Yes	BUY	6	32¢	$2	0x6878be…
10-25 22:33:57	Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Yes	BUY	258	33¢	$85	0xb29e8e…
10-25 22:33:15	Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	Yes	SELL	333	26¢	$87	0xd74cd5…
10-25 21:52:53	Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Yes	BUY	137	65¢	$89	0xe8b290…
10-25 21:51:30	Will Lee Shu-chuan win the next New Taipei Mayor election?	Yes	SELL	196	46¢	$90	0x8d3cc9…
10-25 17:56:38	Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2027?	Yes	SELL	1,692	5¢	$85	0x330d61…
10-24 19:09:08	Heat vs. Hornets	Heat	BUY	34	58¢	$20	0x94c5ac…
10-24 19:08:27	Wizards vs. Bulls	Wizards	BUY	42	48¢	$20	0xc6cd8b…
10-24 19:04:17	Will Chiang Wan-an win the next Taipei Mayor election?	Yes	SELL	135	62¢	$84	0x2d3f47…
10-24 15:50:50	LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs Gen.G (BO1) - Worlds Group Stage	Gen.G	BUY	7	59¢	$4	0x30725a…
10-24 11:05:17	LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs Gen.G (BO1) - Worlds Group Stage	Gen.G	BUY	50	58¢	$29	0xb055c7…
10-24 07:14:36	Will Houston Rockets win the 2027 NBA Finals?	Yes	BUY	117	3¢	$4	0xfda0a5…
10-24 01:03:11	Rockets vs. Spurs	Rockets	BUY	111	36¢	$40	0xf82d62…
10-24 01:01:30	Will the Republicans win the Texas Senate race in 2026?	Yes	SELL	125	35¢	$44	0xcfa32c…
10-23 20:14:26	LoL: Anyone's Legend vs Karmine Corp (BO1) - Worlds Group Stage	Anyone's Legend	BUY	51	69¢	$35	0xb44260…
10-23 18:49:23	LoL: Bilibili Gaming vs Movistar KOI (BO1) - Worlds Group Stage	Bilibili Gaming	BUY	45	82¢	$37	0x56b6ed…
10-23 18:48:30	LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs Top Esports (BO1) - Worlds Group Stage	Hanwha Life Esports	SELL	38	100¢	$38	0xd706f4…
10-23 18:00:17	LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs Top Esports (BO1) - Worlds Group Stage	Hanwha Life Esports	BUY	38	77¢	$29	0x339052…
10-23 17:59:54	LoL: Gen.G vs Invictus Gaming (BO1) - Worlds Group Stage	Gen.G	SELL	29	100¢	$29	0x92e007…
10-23 07:26:08	2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House	Yes	BUY	29	69¢	$20	0x5ce7b1…
10-23 07:25:18	Will Chiang Wan-an win the next Taipei Mayor election?	Yes	BUY	31	65¢	$20	0xb5a54a…
10-23 07:25:11	Will Lee Shu-chuan win the next New Taipei Mayor election?	Yes	BUY	43	47¢	$20	0x1af1bf…
10-23 07:14:21	Will Lee Shu-chuan win the next New Taipei Mayor election?	Yes	BUY	76	46¢	$35	0x52ddc4…
10-23 07:13:45	Will Chiang Wan-an win the next Taipei Mayor election?	Yes	BUY	77	65¢	$50	0x05d034…
10-23 07:11:50	Will China invade Taiwan by December 31, 2027?	Yes	BUY	4,000	10¢	$400	0x4f7ded…
10-21 18:53:59	LoL: Gen.G vs Invictus Gaming (BO1) - Worlds Group Stage	Gen.G	BUY	6	78¢	$5	0xc1f000…
10-21 07:18:00	LoL: Gen.G vs Invictus Gaming (BO1) - Worlds Group Stage	Gen.G	BUY	4	78¢	$3	0xd54930…
10-20 08:05:35	LoL: Gen.G vs Invictus Gaming (BO1) - Worlds Group Stage	Gen.G	BUY	19	78¢	$15	0xa1c9da…
10-20 08:03:16	Will Chiang Wan-an win the next Taipei Mayor election?	Yes	BUY	28	58¢	$16	0xcdae65…
10-20 08:02:32	Will Lee Shu-chuan win the next New Taipei Mayor election?	Yes	BUY	33	45¢	$15	0xf6977a…
10-03 06:32:53	Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Yes	BUY	15	59¢	$9	0x3daeb6…
10-02 17:25:36	Will Lee Shu-chuan win the next New Taipei Mayor election?	Yes	BUY	44	68¢	$30	0xefd0fa…
10-02 17:24:45	Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Yes	BUY	88	57¢	$50	0xbfd039…
10-02 16:28:11	Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Yes	BUY	128	56¢	$72	0x080661…
10-02 16:27:50	Will no listed leader be out before 2027?	Yes	SELL	246	30¢	$73	0xf94f2c…
10-02 16:18:30	Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Yes	BUY	179	56¢	$100	0xec174b…
10-02 16:17:06	Will Chiang Wan-an win the next Taipei Mayor election?	Yes	SELL	124	82¢	$102	0x1217c0…
09-30 05:32:33	Will no listed leader be out before 2027?	Yes	BUY	246	37¢	$91	0x3485da…
09-30 05:06:15	Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next leader out before 2027?	Yes	SELL	321	28¢	$91	0xc47fae…
09-28 05:34:26	Will Xi meet with Takaichi by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	131	36¢	$47	0x33fdbc…
09-27 20:44:50	Will the Republicans win the Texas Senate race in 2026?	Yes	BUY	125	40¢	$50	0x8f068f…
09-27 20:44:18	trump putin and xi seen together before 2027	No	BUY	254	30¢	$77	0x3db25d…
09-27 16:37:05	Will 1 Fed rate hike happen in 2026?	Yes	BUY	178	9¢	$16	0xa3f702…
09-27 14:37:14	Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2027?	Yes	BUY	1,692	9¢	$150	0x73976e…
09-27 14:25:44	2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House	Yes	BUY	164	61¢	$100	0x566a86…
09-27 07:56:17	2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House	Yes	BUY	161	62¢	$100	0xf70041…
09-26 09:29:12	Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?	Yes	BUY	159	63¢	$100	0x7a9560…
09-26 05:56:45	Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?	Yes	BUY	159	63¢	$100	0x797904…
09-25 12:28:33	Will Trump and Putin not meet?	Yes	BUY	70	26¢	$18	0x8c9303…
09-25 10:54:17	Will Trump and Putin not meet?	Yes	BUY	30	26¢	$8	0x7c4f6d…
09-24 17:17:30	Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	Yes	BUY	167	30¢	$50	0x5917b1…
09-24 17:17:21	Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next leader out before 2027?	Yes	BUY	160	31¢	$50	0xb5c8e0…
09-24 17:16:21	Will no listed leader be out before 2027?	Yes	SELL	269	36¢	$97	0xaa5e0c…
09-24 17:13:15	Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	Yes	BUY	167	30¢	$50	0x9bb35e…
09-24 17:13:06	Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next leader out before 2027?	Yes	BUY	161	31¢	$50	0x032649…
09-24 16:52:21	Will Chiang Wan-an win the next Taipei Mayor election?	Yes	BUY	124	81¢	$100	0x826c8b…
09-21 22:54:54	Will Miguel Díaz-Canel be the next leader out before 2027?	Yes	BUY	176	2¢	$3	0xd09ed8…
09-21 22:54:18	Will no listed leader be out before 2027?	Yes	BUY	42	36¢	$15	0xfde0de…
09-21 16:20:43	Will no listed leader be out before 2027?	Yes	BUY	227	37¢	$84	0x4349ef…
09-20 21:31:08	Russia Elections: United Russia Wins Every Region?	No	SELL	29	8¢	$2	0x5a8c0c…
09-19 15:48:47	Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?	Yes	BUY	135	74¢	$100	0x69abc0…
09-19 15:46:26	Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?	Yes	BUY	135	74¢	$100	0xd8ef3b…
09-19 11:33:08	Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?	Yes	BUY	107	77¢	$82	0xfb9b24…
09-18 19:38:57	Will Houston Rockets win the 2027 NBA Finals?	Yes	BUY	118	2¢	$2	0x24cffe…
09-18 18:21:36	will trump and xi hug at their summit 20260916	Yes	BUY	62	8¢	$5	0xfb8701…
09-18 18:16:25	Russia Elections: United Russia Wins Every Region?	No	BUY	29	35¢	$10	0x3dc41a…
09-18 18:06:12	Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?	Yes	BUY	123	81¢	$100	0xa87f45…
09-18 13:00:15	Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?	Yes	BUY	213	77¢	$164	0x0567c5…
08-08 13:51:48	Will China invade Taiwan by December 31, 2027?	Yes	BUY	8	12¢	$1	0x2cd6e9…
08-08 13:42:15	Will China invade Taiwan by December 31, 2027?	Yes	SELL	58	11¢	$6	0xe513be…
08-08 07:16:51	Will China invade Taiwan by December 31, 2027?	Yes	BUY	58	12¢	$7	0x8752c7…
08-07 14:20:49	Will FC Famalicão win on 2026-08-07?	Yes	BUY	26	39¢	$10	0x21bdc7…
08-07 14:10:49	Will Bayern Munich win on 2026-08-07?	Yes	SELL	12	100¢	$12	0xd60666…
08-07 12:27:01	Will Bayern Munich win on 2026-08-07?	Yes	BUY	12	50¢	$6	0x028e1e…
08-07 12:23:25	Will China invade Taiwan by December 31, 2027?	Yes	SELL	385	12¢	$46	0x031d15…
08-06 15:16:20	Will China invade Taiwan by December 31, 2027?	Yes	BUY	385	13¢	$50	0x378b60…
08-06 14:36:20	Will China invade Taiwan by December 31, 2027?	Yes	SELL	1,528	12¢	$183	0x734806…
08-06 13:57:18	Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2027?	Yes	SELL	909	9¢	$82	0xcc59fc…
08-05 13:57:53	Exact Score: Fluminense FC 1 - 1 CR Vasco da Gama?	Yes	BUY	33	15¢	$5	0xe4bbb5…
08-05 13:57:50	Exact Score: Fluminense FC 1 - 0 CR Vasco da Gama?	Yes	BUY	33	15¢	$5	0x600890…
08-05 13:57:47	Exact Score: Fluminense FC 0 - 1 CR Vasco da Gama?	Yes	BUY	50	10¢	$5	0x5aa018…
08-05 10:40:59	lol hle1 gen 2026 08 05	Hanwha Life Esports	BUY	59	51¢	$30	0x62488f…
08-05 10:39:21	lol hle1 gen 2026 08 05 game handicap away 1pt5	Hanwha Life Esports	BUY	56	27¢	$15	0x28ea58…
08-05 08:50:24	Exact Score: Fluminense FC 1 - 1 CR Vasco da Gama?	Yes	BUY	38	13¢	$5	0x057718…
08-05 08:50:18	Exact Score: Fluminense FC 0 - 1 CR Vasco da Gama?	Yes	BUY	50	10¢	$5	0x269394…
08-05 08:50:18	Exact Score: Fluminense FC 1 - 0 CR Vasco da Gama?	Yes	BUY	37	13¢	$5	0x06d7a2…
08-04 17:58:36	ucl oly nec 2026 08 04 spread home 1pt5	Olympiakós SFP	BUY	14	36¢	$5	0xa920dd…
08-04 17:47:06	ucl oly nec 2026 08 04 spread home 1pt5	Olympiakós SFP	BUY	26	39¢	$10	0xa52196…
08-04 13:29:14	ucl usg bog 2026 08 04 corners total 9pt5	Over	BUY	20	50¢	$10	0xb204a6…
08-04 13:27:38	ucl usg bog 2026 08 04 corners total 9pt5	Over	BUY	20	50¢	$10	0x2a9e55…
08-04 07:08:53	lol t1 hle1 2026 08 04	T1	BUY	42	24¢	$10	0x57bd83…
08-04 05:55:03	lol t1 hle1 2026 08 04	T1	BUY	21	48¢	$10	0x887e59…