Agonizing-Familiarity — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$58

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

100.0%

Resolved

Trades

646

lifetime

Volume

$1.12M

lifetime

Avg / trade

$1.74K

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-01-01

last 08-04 04:00

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 2 days

Categories

Politics

60% 100% +$4

Other

35% 100% +$54

Crypto

4% — —

Tech

1% — —

Sports

0% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

22 active days in 12wk • peak 15 trades/day

Open positions Resolved markets Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
khamenei out as supreme leader of iran by february 28	42	$115.3K	59,159	59,158	+0	open	—	03-01 07:40
iran x israelus conflict ends by april 7 346	1	$69.9K	70,000	0	+70,000	open	—	04-24 10:54
will israel launch a major ground offensive in lebanon by march 31	4	$68.8K	69,324	0	+69,324	open	—	03-23 18:09
US forces enter Iran by April 30?	1	$64.7K	65,000	0	+65,000	open	—	04-06 23:59
us x iran ceasefire by april 7	10	$50.0K	50,000	0	+50,000	open	—	04-10 00:06
will iran strike israel on march 10	1	$49.8K	50,000	0	+50,000	open	—	03-14 22:13
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	11	$49.6K	50,000	0	+50,000	open	—	06-02 10:44
will melania say career during ai talk on friday	3	$38.0K	38,000	0	+38,000	open	—	01-20 03:57
us x iran meeting by april 10 2026 895	8	$36.0K	40,469	0	+40,469	open	—	04-13 11:41
will eleven die in stranger things season 5	16	$34.9K	35,179	0	+35,179	open	—	01-02 00:02
will the virginia redistricting referendum pass	1	$32.6K	32,819	0	+32,819	open	—	04-21 23:46
will global temperature increase by between 1pt15c and 1pt19c in february 2026 838	24	$31.7K	33,254	0	+33,254	open	—	03-11 14:53
Clavicular pregnancy in 2026?	3	$28.9K	30,810	0	+30,810	open	—	04-29 03:29
Iran closes its airspace by May 24?	38	$27.0K	21,855	14,001	+7,854	open	—	05-22 22:12
Tesla launches unsupervised full self driving (FSD) by June 30?	4	$24.6K	28,067	0	+28,067	open	—	01-29 00:43
us announces new iran agreementceasefire extension by june 13	2	$22.0K	23,416	0	+23,416	open	—	06-14 07:58
us anti cartel ground operation in mexico by january 31	5	$21.5K	21,936	0	+21,936	open	—	02-04 00:18
us x iran permanent peace deal by june 15 2026 734 856 129	8	$20.6K	21,200	0	+21,200	open	—	06-16 23:57
will trump be in the wc champions photo 20260608152527021	1	$19.9K	20,000	0	+20,000	open	—	07-20 22:28
will donald trump publicly insult benjamin netanyahu by june 30 2026	3	$19.7K	34,050	0	+34,050	open	—	06-30 21:20
will global temperature increase by between 1pt05c and 1pt09c in february 2026 988	17	$16.4K	16,462	0	+16,462	open	—	03-11 14:34
will the super mario galaxy movie 2nd weekend box office be greater than 90m	1	$15.6K	15,890	0	+15,890	open	—	04-10 19:58
Will the US strike Somalia next?	42	$14.0K	16,112	0	+16,112	open	—	01-13 20:53
us government funding lapse on january 31	5	$13.6K	10,541	5,833	+4,708	open	—	01-29 00:01
will december 2025 be the 4th or lower hottest on record	26	$12.8K	12,938	0	+12,938	open	—	01-11 01:15
Will Trump nominate Judy Shelton as the next Fed chair?	2	$12.0K	12,000	0	+12,000	open	—	01-30 12:07
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	2	$11.7K	12,158	0	+12,158	open	—	06-25 19:36
will trump talk to vladimir putin in january	1	$11.6K	12,000	0	+12,000	open	—	02-02 08:30
will global temperature increase by more than 1pt19c in december 2025	11	$11.0K	11,191	0	+11,191	open	—	01-11 07:37
israel announces lebanon ceasefire extension by june 7	6	$10.7K	6,727	6,726	+0	open	—	06-04 02:21

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
08-04 04:00:36	will trump speak to emmanuel macron in july 20260626154217431	Yes	BUY	3,281	0¢	$10	0x101053…
08-04 04:00:32	will trump speak to emmanuel macron in july 20260626154217431	Yes	BUY	2,199	0¢	$7	0xdfefaf…
08-04 04:00:23	will trump speak to emmanuel macron in july 20260626154217431	Yes	BUY	20	0¢	$0	0xd2bd45…
08-04 03:57:06	will trump speak to emmanuel macron in july 20260626154217431	Yes	BUY	1,903	0¢	$6	0x7a8b2f…
08-04 03:55:24	will trump speak to emmanuel macron in july 20260626154217431	Yes	BUY	1,307	0¢	$4	0x2b216b…
08-04 03:44:33	will trump speak to emmanuel macron in july 20260626154217431	Yes	BUY	20	0¢	$0	0x669d3c…
08-04 03:43:11	will trump speak to emmanuel macron in july 20260626154217431	Yes	BUY	1,000	0¢	$3	0x143e8f…
08-04 03:04:59	will trump speak to emmanuel macron in july 20260626154217431	Yes	BUY	1,000	0¢	$3	0x38a40b…
08-04 02:58:06	will trump speak to emmanuel macron in july 20260626154217431	Yes	BUY	1,000	0¢	$3	0xad7f64…
08-04 02:53:12	will trump speak to emmanuel macron in july 20260626154217431	Yes	BUY	13	0¢	$0	0x5c0a43…
08-04 02:26:47	will trump speak to emmanuel macron in july 20260626154217431	Yes	BUY	2	0¢	$0	0x59f709…
08-04 02:26:42	will trump speak to emmanuel macron in july 20260626154217431	Yes	BUY	2	0¢	$0	0x10192a…
08-01 12:05:06	will donald trump publicly insult emmanuel macron by july 31 2026 20260626210612731	Yes	BUY	17	23¢	$4	0x398b0f…
08-01 12:00:21	will donald trump publicly insult tucker carlson by july 31 2026 20260626210612710	Yes	BUY	188	16¢	$30	0x4492fc…
08-01 12:00:09	will donald trump publicly insult tucker carlson by july 31 2026 20260626210612710	Yes	BUY	51	13¢	$6	0x52df72…
08-01 11:59:11	will donald trump publicly insult tucker carlson by july 31 2026 20260626210612710	Yes	BUY	15	10¢	$2	0x8ee86d…
08-01 11:15:06	will donald trump publicly insult emmanuel macron by july 31 2026 20260626210612731	No	BUY	1	79¢	$1	0x4068a5…
08-01 10:20:29	ukraine strikes another vessel in the black sea by august 31 2026 20260727160618747	Yes	BUY	90	98¢	$88	0x4ce2c6…
07-30 10:21:54	nato downs another russian drone by august 31 20260726215001931	Yes	BUY	58	56¢	$33	0xdf8039…
07-30 09:47:53	NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	2,000	29¢	$580	0x5997fb…
07-29 23:11:47	uptspt anti cartel operation outside of the uptspt by july 31 20260616215440524	Yes	BUY	1,625	88¢	$1,425	0x048d40…
07-29 23:11:45	uptspt anti cartel operation outside of the uptspt by july 31 20260616215440524	Yes	BUY	67	88¢	$59	0xe81428…
07-29 23:11:33	uptspt anti cartel operation outside of the uptspt by july 31 20260616215440524	Yes	BUY	0	88¢	$0	0x9aca6e…
07-29 23:06:06	uptspt anti cartel operation outside of the uptspt by july 31 20260616215440524	Yes	BUY	50	88¢	$44	0xa582c2…
07-29 23:06:02	uptspt anti cartel operation outside of the uptspt by july 31 20260616215440524	Yes	BUY	239	88¢	$210	0x3eb7dc…
07-23 04:28:40	Will GameStop acquire eBay?	No	SELL	10	86¢	$9	0xacfbeb…
07-23 04:28:19	Will GameStop acquire eBay?	No	BUY	10	87¢	$9	0xa8f39a…
07-20 22:28:40	will trump be in the wc champions photo 20260608152527021	Yes	BUY	20,000	100¢	$19,900	0x909e65…
07-18 03:17:24	president trump to attend world cup final 20260608152749044	No	BUY	2,444	3¢	$71	0xcee1e0…
07-18 03:16:28	president trump to attend world cup final 20260608152749044	No	BUY	789	3¢	$22	0x018ae2…
07-18 03:15:51	president trump to attend world cup final 20260608152749044	No	BUY	150	3¢	$4	0x27c286…
07-17 04:08:54	israeli parliament dissolved by july 16 20260713154904805	Yes	BUY	8,818	99¢	$8,724	0x1280b0…
07-17 03:19:42	israeli parliament dissolved by july 16 20260713154904805	Yes	BUY	1,994	97¢	$1,936	0xa84240…
07-11 22:31:49	president trump to attend world cup final 20260608152749044	No	BUY	892	8¢	$71	0x203f59…
07-11 21:10:05	iran military action against a gulf state on july 9 20260708212322934	No	BUY	1,049	83¢	$868	0x050319…
07-11 00:56:28	president trump to attend world cup final 20260608152749044	No	BUY	8,800	7¢	$616	0x157c56…
07-10 22:02:10	fifwc arg alg 2026 06 16 saves luca zidane gte4	No	BUY	513	89¢	$458	0x989c45…
06-30 21:20:52	will donald trump publicly insult benjamin netanyahu by june 30 2026	No	BUY	21,177	45¢	$9,530	0x3cc511…
06-30 15:32:34	Will Samuel Alito announce his retirement by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	3,038	40¢	$1,215	0x20e6b4…
06-30 15:31:22	Will Samuel Alito announce his retirement by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	15	40¢	$6	0x758ed0…
06-27 22:13:02	will donald trump publicly insult benjamin netanyahu by june 30 2026	No	BUY	4,334	84¢	$3,661	0x2c68e6…
06-27 20:33:38	will donald trump publicly insult benjamin netanyahu by june 30 2026	No	BUY	8,539	76¢	$6,506	0x05b944…
06-25 19:36:58	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	No	BUY	32	96¢	$30	0x39c620…
06-25 19:36:46	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	No	BUY	12,126	96¢	$11,620	0x0e236f…
06-18 09:05:46	us x iran diplomatic meeting by june 19 2026 475	No	BUY	72	17¢	$12	0xb5258d…
06-17 09:23:22	will the text of the us iran agreement be released by june 16 20260615224555000	No	SELL	403	72¢	$290	0x1117dd…
06-17 08:13:02	will the text of the us iran agreement be released by june 16 20260615224555000	No	SELL	1,300	70¢	$910	0x063628…
06-17 07:46:52	will the text of the us iran agreement be released by june 16 20260615224555000	No	BUY	1,200	70¢	$840	0xa4d54e…
06-17 07:25:38	will the text of the us iran agreement be released by june 16 20260615224555000	No	BUY	503	70¢	$352	0x03de11…
06-16 23:57:44	us x iran permanent peace deal by june 15 2026 734 856 129	Yes	BUY	2,000	99¢	$1,988	0x7dec0b…
06-16 09:15:37	us x iran diplomatic meeting by june 15 2026 671	Yes	SELL	1,180	22¢	$261	0xfc3fcd…
06-16 09:04:15	us x iran permanent peace deal by june 15 2026 734 856 129	Yes	BUY	4,638	97¢	$4,494	0xc5200b…
06-16 09:04:12	us x iran permanent peace deal by june 15 2026 734 856 129	Yes	BUY	5	97¢	$5	0xa315a8…
06-16 09:04:06	us x iran permanent peace deal by june 15 2026 734 856 129	Yes	BUY	32	97¢	$31	0xbf7d2d…
06-16 09:03:42	us x iran permanent peace deal by june 15 2026 734 856 129	Yes	BUY	5	97¢	$5	0x5b6a77…
06-16 09:03:37	us x iran permanent peace deal by june 15 2026 734 856 129	Yes	BUY	3,320	97¢	$3,217	0xb92d5c…
06-16 08:51:06	us x iran diplomatic meeting by june 15 2026 671	Yes	SELL	35	29¢	$10	0xb9d157…
06-16 08:51:04	us x iran diplomatic meeting by june 15 2026 671	Yes	SELL	817	29¢	$234	0xc1c58b…
06-16 08:51:04	us x iran diplomatic meeting by june 15 2026 671	Yes	SELL	2	29¢	$1	0x78aec2…
06-16 08:50:22	us x iran diplomatic meeting by june 18 2026 585	Yes	BUY	20	58¢	$12	0xe7e724…
06-16 08:48:04	us x iran diplomatic meeting by june 16 2026 20260612160513701	Yes	BUY	61	39¢	$23	0x2e37ce…
06-16 08:48:00	us x iran diplomatic meeting by june 15 2026 671	Yes	BUY	2,035	26¢	$532	0xf1f7b7…
06-16 08:32:40	us x iran permanent peace deal by june 15 2026 734 856 129	Yes	BUY	1,200	97¢	$1,165	0xf37d22…
06-16 08:30:27	us x iran permanent peace deal by june 15 2026 734 856 129	Yes	BUY	10,000	97¢	$9,710	0xf493ca…
06-14 21:32:36	us announces new iran agreementceasefire extension by june 15 2889	Yes	BUY	14	98¢	$14	0xd7715a…
06-14 21:32:28	us announces new iran agreementceasefire extension by june 15 2889	Yes	BUY	1,544	98¢	$1,513	0xdc18c2…
06-14 21:32:28	us announces new iran agreementceasefire extension by june 15 2889	Yes	BUY	0	98¢	$0	0xcb98e8…
06-14 21:32:28	us announces new iran agreementceasefire extension by june 15 2889	Yes	BUY	6	98¢	$6	0xad7e6a…
06-14 07:58:40	us announces new iran agreementceasefire extension by june 13	No	BUY	4,405	94¢	$4,140	0x287b3b…
06-14 07:50:51	us announces new iran agreementceasefire extension by june 13	No	BUY	19,011	94¢	$17,813	0xbd73f1…
06-04 02:21:09	israel announces lebanon ceasefire extension by june 7	Yes	SELL	130	84¢	$110	0x7355a2…
06-04 02:20:34	israel announces lebanon ceasefire extension by june 7	Yes	SELL	315	84¢	$265	0x21d969…
06-04 02:20:30	israel announces lebanon ceasefire extension by june 7	Yes	SELL	385	84¢	$323	0x64591d…
06-04 02:20:00	israel announces lebanon ceasefire extension by june 7	Yes	SELL	1,374	83¢	$1,140	0xd6b27a…
06-04 02:18:10	israel announces lebanon ceasefire extension by june 7	Yes	SELL	4,522	82¢	$3,708	0x6bbe90…
06-04 02:12:09	israel announces lebanon ceasefire extension by june 7	Yes	BUY	6,727	76¢	$5,144	0x74b198…
06-02 10:44:02	MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	10,000	99¢	$9,890	0x4bf2a9…
06-02 08:07:36	MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	1,563	99¢	$1,552	0xa5ff60…
06-02 08:07:35	MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	4,898	99¢	$4,863	0xd300ea…
06-02 08:07:22	MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	4,081	99¢	$4,053	0x53d866…
06-02 08:07:12	MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	50	99¢	$50	0xb42517…
06-02 08:07:07	MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	6,816	99¢	$6,768	0xe36db5…
06-02 08:06:56	MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	1,429	99¢	$1,419	0x002e6d…
06-02 08:06:47	MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	12,540	99¢	$12,452	0x6da5f2…
06-02 08:06:40	MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	7,000	99¢	$6,951	0x112206…
06-02 08:06:18	MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	143	99¢	$142	0x37902b…
06-02 08:05:57	MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	1,480	99¢	$1,470	0x3ddd3d…
05-31 23:14:53	US x Cuba diplomatic meeting by May 31?	Yes	BUY	1,621	99¢	$1,612	0x9b4e80…
05-31 23:12:21	US x Cuba diplomatic meeting by May 31?	Yes	BUY	287	99¢	$286	0x5c49c8…
05-31 04:06:25	US x Cuba diplomatic meeting by May 31?	No	BUY	7,654	2¢	$161	0x2bc9b5…
05-31 01:21:59	US x Cuba diplomatic meeting by May 31?	Yes	BUY	802	96¢	$767	0x18ca3e…
05-31 01:21:55	US x Cuba diplomatic meeting by June 30?	Yes	BUY	124	97¢	$120	0x6e7069…
05-29 05:22:40	MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	534	89¢	$476	0x8fd3d5…
05-28 14:41:51	Claude 4.8 released by May 31?	Yes	BUY	2,397	90¢	$2,150	0xebba22…
05-28 14:22:57	Claude 4.8 released by July 31?	Yes	BUY	325	97¢	$314	0x97be25…
05-28 14:22:29	Claude 4.8 released by May 31?	Yes	BUY	108	90¢	$97	0x90581d…
05-28 14:22:29	Claude 4.8 released by May 31?	Yes	BUY	3,693	89¢	$3,271	0x5d5a75…
05-23 05:48:23	Will Trump say "250" or "250th" during events in Rockland County?	No	BUY	2	57¢	$1	0xdad9cb…
05-23 05:48:15	Will Trump say "250" or "250th" during events in Rockland County?	No	BUY	594	57¢	$338	0x7dfaa8…
05-22 22:12:06	Iran closes its airspace by May 24?	Yes	SELL	4	98¢	$4	0x6babbc…