Agonizing-Familiarity — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$5.74K

Unrealized P&L

+$2.31K

Hit rate

93.1%

Resolved

140

Trades

850

lifetime

Volume

$1.32M

lifetime

Avg / trade

$1.55K

Open exposure

$11.2K

7 positions

First seen

2026-01-01

last 11-01 14:01

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 78 days

Categories

Politics

62% 75% -$32,091

Other

33% 82% +$25,993

Crypto

4% 100% +$449

Tech

0% 100% +$691

Sports

0% 0% -$785

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

20 active days in 12wk • peak 8 trades/day

Open positions (7) Resolved markets (29) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will the Democratic Party win the NC-03 House seat?	Yes	+8,255	$1,955	71¢	$5.8K	+$3,876	10-24 03:28
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	No	+4,000	$2,920	70¢	$2.8K	-$140	10-27 11:42
Will the Republican Party win the NC-03 House seat?	No	+2,998	$702	71¢	$2.1K	+$1,424	10-24 03:28
NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026?	Yes	+2,000	$580	12¢	$240	-$340	07-30 09:47
Will Samuel Alito announce his retirement by December 31, 2026?	Yes	+3,053	$1,221	4¢	$137	-$1,084	06-30 15:32
Will Ursula von der Leyen visit Ukraine by December 31, 2026?	Yes	+151	$85	49¢	$74	-$11	10-06 00:45
US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?	No	+0	$1,415	0¢	$0	-$1,415	10-03 07:17

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
khamenei out as supreme leader of iran by february 28	42	$115.3K	59,159	59,158	+0	Yes	+$2,745	03-01 07:40
iran x israelus conflict ends by april 7 346	1	$69.9K	70,000	0	+70,000	Yes	+$70	04-24 10:54
will israel launch a major ground offensive in lebanon by march 31	4	$68.8K	69,324	0	+69,324	Yes	+$488	03-23 18:09
US forces enter Iran by April 30?	1	$64.7K	65,000	0	+65,000	Yes	+$325	04-06 23:59
us x iran ceasefire by april 7	10	$50.0K	50,000	0	+50,000	Yes	+$50	04-10 00:06
will iran strike israel on march 10	1	$49.8K	50,000	0	+50,000	Yes	+$200	03-14 22:13
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	11	$49.6K	50,000	0	+50,000	No	+$390	06-02 10:44
Will Nithya Raman finish second in the first round of the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?	2	$49.6K	25,000	25,000	+0	Yes	+$350	06-09 03:00
Iran closes its airspace by May 24?	46	$45.8K	46,310	14,001	+32,310	No	-$21,427	05-22 22:12
will melania say career during ai talk on friday	3	$38.0K	38,000	0	+38,000	No	+$38	01-20 03:57
us x iran meeting by april 10 2026 895	8	$36.0K	40,469	0	+40,469	No	+$4,514	04-13 11:41
will eleven die in stranger things season 5	16	$34.9K	35,179	0	+35,179	No	+$283	01-02 00:02
will the virginia redistricting referendum pass	1	$32.6K	32,819	0	+32,819	Yes	+$263	04-21 23:46
will global temperature increase by between 1pt15c and 1pt19c in february 2026 838	24	$31.7K	33,254	0	+33,254	No	+$1,559	03-11 14:53
Clavicular pregnancy in 2026?	3	$28.9K	30,810	0	+30,810	Yes	+$1,874	04-29 03:29
Tesla launches unsupervised full self driving (FSD) by June 30?	4	$24.6K	28,067	0	+28,067	Yes	+$3,470	01-29 00:43
US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?	11	$24.3K	28,583	28,583	+0	open	—	10-03 07:17
dota2 ironwi boombo 2026 08 20	9	$22.6K	20,000	19,999	+1	BoomBoys	+$6,199	08-21 03:35
us announces new iran agreementceasefire extension by june 13	2	$22.0K	23,416	0	+23,416	No	+$1,463	06-14 07:58
us anti cartel ground operation in mexico by january 31	5	$21.5K	21,936	0	+21,936	Yes	+$423	02-04 00:18
us x iran permanent peace deal by june 15 2026 734 856 129	8	$20.6K	21,200	0	+21,200	Yes	+$585	06-16 23:57
will trump be in the wc champions photo 20260608152527021	1	$19.9K	20,000	0	+20,000	Yes	+$100	07-20 22:28
will donald trump publicly insult benjamin netanyahu by june 30 2026	3	$19.7K	34,050	0	+34,050	Yes	-$19,697	06-30 21:20
will global temperature increase by between 1pt05c and 1pt09c in february 2026 988	17	$16.4K	16,462	0	+16,462	No	+$65	03-11 14:34
will the super mario galaxy movie 2nd weekend box office be greater than 90m	1	$15.6K	15,890	0	+15,890	No	+$318	04-10 19:58
Will the US strike Somalia next?	42	$14.0K	16,112	0	+16,112	Yes	+$2,106	01-13 20:53
Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?	3	$13.9K	14,000	0	+14,000	No	+$112	10-08 11:31
us government funding lapse on january 31	5	$13.6K	10,541	5,833	+4,708	Yes	+$701	01-29 00:01
will december 2025 be the 4th or lower hottest on record	26	$12.8K	12,938	0	+12,938	Yes	+$120	01-11 01:15
Will Trump nominate Judy Shelton as the next Fed chair?	2	$12.0K	12,000	0	+12,000	No	+$48	01-30 12:07

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
11-01 14:01:46	Will Trump say "Burger" in October?	Yes	BUY	10	2¢	$0	0x332e6a…
11-01 13:47:48	Will Trump say "Burger" in October?	Yes	BUY	5	2¢	$0	0xa35e63…
11-01 13:29:03	Will Trump say "Burger" in October?	Yes	BUY	10	3¢	$0	0xf835d2…
11-01 13:27:22	Will Trump say "Burger" in October?	Yes	BUY	105	3¢	$4	0xfb1a24…
11-01 13:02:33	Will Trump say "Burger" in October?	Yes	BUY	10	3¢	$0	0xb38c97…
11-01 13:01:10	Will Trump say "Burger" in October?	Yes	BUY	10	3¢	$0	0x6c53c7…
11-01 13:00:58	Will Trump say "Burger" in October?	Yes	BUY	10	3¢	$0	0x779f14…
11-01 12:30:45	Will Trump say "Burger" in October?	Yes	BUY	9	3¢	$0	0x14c8c0…
10-30 17:35:03	Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 North Carolina Senate election by 15%-18%?	Yes	BUY	1,240	25¢	$315	0xeb34ee…
10-30 17:35:03	Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 North Carolina Senate election by 18% or more?	Yes	BUY	4,792	22¢	$1,068	0xd0d953…
10-27 11:42:38	Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	No	BUY	4,000	73¢	$2,920	0x508892…
10-25 13:02:14	Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 North Carolina Senate election by 12%-15%?	Yes	BUY	130	24¢	$31	0xf5aa01…
10-25 13:02:14	Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 North Carolina Senate election by 15%-18%?	Yes	BUY	20	24¢	$5	0xc881ec…
10-25 13:02:14	Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 North Carolina Senate election by 15%-18%?	Yes	BUY	1,010	22¢	$219	0xa2e4ce…
10-25 13:02:14	Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 North Carolina Senate election by 18% or more?	Yes	BUY	1,736	29¢	$505	0x9cfe23…
10-25 13:02:14	Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 North Carolina Senate election by 15%-18%?	Yes	BUY	80	24¢	$19	0x41a492…
10-24 05:55:50	Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 North Carolina Senate election by 18% or more?	Yes	BUY	2,445	23¢	$551	0xea6ef6…
10-24 05:55:50	Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 North Carolina Senate election by 15%-18%?	Yes	BUY	1,653	10¢	$159	0x3fbab7…
10-24 03:28:26	Will the Republican Party win the NC-03 House seat?	No	BUY	33	24¢	$8	0x698a3f…
10-24 03:28:24	Will the Republican Party win the NC-03 House seat?	No	BUY	2	24¢	$1	0x84e4ed…
10-24 03:28:23	Will the Democratic Party win the NC-03 House seat?	Yes	BUY	8,255	24¢	$1,955	0xfdadf0…
10-24 03:28:23	Will the Republican Party win the NC-03 House seat?	No	BUY	2,963	23¢	$693	0xa83705…
10-16 22:55:57	Will Trump say "Star" during his Midterm Rally in Georgia?	No	BUY	357	29¢	$104	0xd05d8c…
10-13 05:09:00	Will Russia target Kyiv on October 16, 2026?	No	BUY	5	80¢	$4	0x35c9f6…
10-13 05:08:32	Will Russia target Kyiv on October 16, 2026?	No	BUY	5	81¢	$4	0xe7bf83…
10-13 05:08:08	Will Russia target Kyiv on October 16, 2026?	No	BUY	5	80¢	$4	0x82221e…
10-12 11:30:15	Will Trump say "Ammunition" this week?	No	BUY	31	46¢	$14	0xc42290…
10-12 11:29:56	Will Trump say "Ammunition" this week?	No	BUY	6	46¢	$3	0xba77c7…
10-12 11:12:03	Will Trump say "Ammunition" this week?	No	BUY	533	47¢	$251	0x48d48e…
10-12 11:11:42	Will Trump say "Ammunition" this week?	No	BUY	14	46¢	$7	0x6f5710…
10-12 11:10:29	Will Trump say "Ammunition" this week?	No	BUY	900	50¢	$451	0x4b4002…
10-08 11:31:59	Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?	No	BUY	914	99¢	$907	0x7b2922…
10-08 11:29:29	Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?	No	BUY	12,500	99¢	$12,400	0x17489e…
10-08 11:29:20	Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?	No	BUY	586	99¢	$581	0x9fc0d6…
10-06 00:45:58	Will Ursula von der Leyen visit Ukraine by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	60	38¢	$23	0x8c3cfb…
10-03 07:17:27	US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?	No	SELL	28,583	40¢	$11,433	0x2343d2…
10-02 23:08:56	US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?	No	BUY	213	40¢	$85	0xfe4d95…
10-02 23:08:02	US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?	No	BUY	3,787	40¢	$1,515	0x12720d…
10-02 23:07:38	US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?	No	BUY	4,748	40¢	$1,899	0x0c503b…
10-02 23:06:57	US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?	No	BUY	9,447	40¢	$3,779	0xa940c5…
09-20 00:32:52	US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?	No	BUY	419	54¢	$226	0x251807…
09-19 23:44:31	US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?	No	BUY	40	54¢	$22	0xaa3b1f…
09-19 23:31:49	US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?	No	BUY	4,021	54¢	$2,171	0x49355d…
09-19 23:30:09	US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?	No	BUY	5,625	54¢	$3,038	0x8b499c…
09-04 04:11:49	Anthony Fauci charged by December 31?	Yes	BUY	20	42¢	$8	0x20c3ba…
09-02 23:36:42	Anthony Fauci charged by December 31?	Yes	BUY	70	54¢	$38	0x52b43f…
08-24 07:30:10	Will Ursula von der Leyen visit Ukraine by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	91	68¢	$62	0xc821ab…
08-21 03:35:24	dota2 ironwi boombo 2026 08 20	Iron Wing	SELL	10,802	72¢	$7,777	0x0239bd…
08-21 03:35:15	dota2 ironwi boombo 2026 08 20	Iron Wing	SELL	507	72¢	$365	0xc54f91…
08-21 03:35:12	dota2 ironwi boombo 2026 08 20	Iron Wing	SELL	187	72¢	$135	0x1e3e63…
08-21 03:35:00	dota2 ironwi boombo 2026 08 20	Iron Wing	SELL	2,028	72¢	$1,460	0x40b2c6…
08-21 03:34:42	dota2 ironwi boombo 2026 08 20	Iron Wing	SELL	8	72¢	$6	0xcfa485…
08-21 03:34:34	dota2 ironwi boombo 2026 08 20	Iron Wing	SELL	147	72¢	$106	0xfc8a72…
08-21 03:34:13	dota2 ironwi boombo 2026 08 20	Iron Wing	SELL	5,071	72¢	$3,651	0x776694…
08-21 03:34:07	dota2 ironwi boombo 2026 08 20	Iron Wing	SELL	1,248	72¢	$898	0x1e428c…
08-20 20:29:48	dota2 ironwi boombo 2026 08 20	Iron Wing	BUY	20,000	41¢	$8,200	0xc792cf…
08-19 05:40:51	Will Melissa Hernandez win the CA-14 special election?	No	BUY	6,000	85¢	$5,100	0xea8b1a…
08-19 03:36:48	Will Aisha Wahab win the CA-14 special election?	Yes	BUY	1	89¢	$1	0x123b61…
08-12 07:47:58	Will David Crowley win the 2026 Wisconsin Governor Democratic primary election?	No	SELL	69,840	0¢	$70	0x45e032…
08-12 07:35:21	Will David Crowley win the 2026 Wisconsin Governor Democratic primary election?	No	SELL	20,626	1¢	$124	0xa408f7…
08-12 07:23:46	Will David Crowley win the 2026 Wisconsin Governor Democratic primary election?	No	SELL	587	0¢	$3	0xff9bff…
08-12 07:19:24	Will David Crowley win the 2026 Wisconsin Governor Democratic primary election?	No	SELL	22	0¢	$0	0xe6bd3a…
08-12 07:03:13	Will David Crowley win the 2026 Wisconsin Governor Democratic primary election?	No	SELL	45	0¢	$0	0xa2399d…
08-12 07:03:03	Will David Crowley win the 2026 Wisconsin Governor Democratic primary election?	No	SELL	203	0¢	$1	0x98d2a2…
08-12 07:03:01	Will David Crowley win the 2026 Wisconsin Governor Democratic primary election?	No	SELL	10	0¢	$0	0xb44625…
08-12 06:41:57	Will David Crowley win the 2026 Wisconsin Governor Democratic primary election?	No	SELL	300	0¢	$1	0xb1ae49…
08-12 06:41:40	Will David Crowley win the 2026 Wisconsin Governor Democratic primary election?	No	SELL	300	0¢	$1	0x8ffc41…
08-12 06:38:43	Will David Crowley win the 2026 Wisconsin Governor Democratic primary election?	No	SELL	667	0¢	$2	0x585da4…
08-12 06:38:33	Will David Crowley win the 2026 Wisconsin Governor Democratic primary election?	No	SELL	10	0¢	$0	0x7186b5…
08-12 06:29:15	Will David Crowley win the 2026 Wisconsin Governor Democratic primary election?	No	BUY	95,285	0¢	$191	0x235822…
08-12 06:28:58	Will David Crowley win the 2026 Wisconsin Governor Democratic primary election?	No	BUY	20	0¢	$0	0xe74932…
08-12 06:28:51	Will David Crowley win the 2026 Wisconsin Governor Democratic primary election?	No	BUY	4,695	0¢	$9	0x1b7796…
08-12 06:19:12	Will Francesca Hong win the 2026 Wisconsin Governor Democratic primary election?	No	BUY	120	94¢	$112	0x7be07e…
08-04 04:00:36	will trump speak to emmanuel macron in july 20260626154217431	Yes	BUY	3,281	0¢	$10	0x101053…
08-04 04:00:32	will trump speak to emmanuel macron in july 20260626154217431	Yes	BUY	2,199	0¢	$7	0xdfefaf…
08-04 04:00:23	will trump speak to emmanuel macron in july 20260626154217431	Yes	BUY	20	0¢	$0	0xd2bd45…
08-04 03:57:06	will trump speak to emmanuel macron in july 20260626154217431	Yes	BUY	1,903	0¢	$6	0x7a8b2f…
08-04 03:55:24	will trump speak to emmanuel macron in july 20260626154217431	Yes	BUY	1,307	0¢	$4	0x2b216b…
08-04 03:44:33	will trump speak to emmanuel macron in july 20260626154217431	Yes	BUY	20	0¢	$0	0x669d3c…
08-04 03:43:11	will trump speak to emmanuel macron in july 20260626154217431	Yes	BUY	1,000	0¢	$3	0x143e8f…
08-04 03:04:59	will trump speak to emmanuel macron in july 20260626154217431	Yes	BUY	1,000	0¢	$3	0x38a40b…
08-04 02:58:06	will trump speak to emmanuel macron in july 20260626154217431	Yes	BUY	1,000	0¢	$3	0xad7f64…
08-04 02:53:12	will trump speak to emmanuel macron in july 20260626154217431	Yes	BUY	13	0¢	$0	0x5c0a43…
08-04 02:26:47	will trump speak to emmanuel macron in july 20260626154217431	Yes	BUY	2	0¢	$0	0x59f709…
08-04 02:26:42	will trump speak to emmanuel macron in july 20260626154217431	Yes	BUY	2	0¢	$0	0x10192a…
08-01 12:05:06	will donald trump publicly insult emmanuel macron by july 31 2026 20260626210612731	Yes	BUY	17	23¢	$4	0x398b0f…
08-01 12:00:21	will donald trump publicly insult tucker carlson by july 31 2026 20260626210612710	Yes	BUY	188	16¢	$30	0x4492fc…
08-01 12:00:09	will donald trump publicly insult tucker carlson by july 31 2026 20260626210612710	Yes	BUY	51	13¢	$6	0x52df72…
08-01 11:59:11	will donald trump publicly insult tucker carlson by july 31 2026 20260626210612710	Yes	BUY	15	10¢	$2	0x8ee86d…
08-01 11:15:06	will donald trump publicly insult emmanuel macron by july 31 2026 20260626210612731	No	BUY	1	79¢	$1	0x4068a5…
08-01 10:20:29	ukraine strikes another vessel in the black sea by august 31 2026 20260727160618747	Yes	BUY	90	98¢	$88	0x4ce2c6…
07-30 10:21:54	nato downs another russian drone by august 31 20260726215001931	Yes	BUY	58	56¢	$33	0xdf8039…
07-30 09:47:53	NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	2,000	29¢	$580	0x5997fb…
07-29 23:11:47	uptspt anti cartel operation outside of the uptspt by july 31 20260616215440524	Yes	BUY	1,625	88¢	$1,425	0x048d40…
07-29 23:11:45	uptspt anti cartel operation outside of the uptspt by july 31 20260616215440524	Yes	BUY	67	88¢	$59	0xe81428…
07-29 23:11:33	uptspt anti cartel operation outside of the uptspt by july 31 20260616215440524	Yes	BUY	0	88¢	$0	0x9aca6e…
07-29 23:06:06	uptspt anti cartel operation outside of the uptspt by july 31 20260616215440524	Yes	BUY	50	88¢	$44	0xa582c2…
07-29 23:06:02	uptspt anti cartel operation outside of the uptspt by july 31 20260616215440524	Yes	BUY	239	88¢	$210	0x3eb7dc…
07-29 16:37:27	Will "Spider-Man: Brand New Day" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 340m and 350m?	Yes	BUY	30	13¢	$4	0x58fc14…
07-29 16:37:27	Will "Spider-Man: Brand New Day" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 320m and 330m?	Yes	BUY	79	12¢	$9	0x1053ce…