Agonizing-Familiarity — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$58

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

100.0%

Resolved

Trades

582

lifetime

Volume

$1.03M

lifetime

Avg / trade

$1.77K

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-01-01

last 06-14 21:32

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 2 days

Categories

Politics

59% 100% +$4

Other

36% 100% +$54

Crypto

5% — —

Tech

1% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

29 active days in 12wk • peak 49 trades/day

Open positions Resolved markets Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
khamenei out as supreme leader of iran by february 28	42	$115.3K	59,159	59,158	+0	open	—	03-01 07:40
iran x israelus conflict ends by april 7 346	1	$69.9K	70,000	0	+70,000	open	—	04-24 10:54
will israel launch a major ground offensive in lebanon by march 31	4	$68.8K	69,324	0	+69,324	open	—	03-23 18:09
US forces enter Iran by April 30?	1	$64.7K	65,000	0	+65,000	open	—	04-06 23:59
us x iran ceasefire by april 7	10	$50.0K	50,000	0	+50,000	open	—	04-10 00:06
will iran strike israel on march 10	1	$49.8K	50,000	0	+50,000	open	—	03-14 22:13
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	11	$49.6K	50,000	0	+50,000	open	—	06-02 10:44
will melania say career during ai talk on friday	3	$38.0K	38,000	0	+38,000	open	—	01-20 03:57
us x iran meeting by april 10 2026 895	8	$36.0K	40,469	0	+40,469	open	—	04-13 11:41
will eleven die in stranger things season 5	16	$34.9K	35,179	0	+35,179	open	—	01-02 00:02
will the virginia redistricting referendum pass	1	$32.6K	32,819	0	+32,819	open	—	04-21 23:46
will global temperature increase by between 1pt15c and 1pt19c in february 2026 838	24	$31.7K	33,254	0	+33,254	open	—	03-11 14:53
Clavicular pregnancy in 2026?	3	$28.9K	30,810	0	+30,810	open	—	04-29 03:29
Iran closes its airspace by May 24?	38	$27.0K	21,855	14,001	+7,854	open	—	05-22 22:12
Tesla launches unsupervised full self driving (FSD) by June 30?	4	$24.6K	28,067	0	+28,067	open	—	01-29 00:43
us announces new iran agreementceasefire extension by june 13	2	$22.0K	23,416	0	+23,416	open	—	06-14 07:58
us anti cartel ground operation in mexico by january 31	5	$21.5K	21,936	0	+21,936	open	—	02-04 00:18
will global temperature increase by between 1pt05c and 1pt09c in february 2026 988	17	$16.4K	16,462	0	+16,462	open	—	03-11 14:34
will the super mario galaxy movie 2nd weekend box office be greater than 90m	1	$15.6K	15,890	0	+15,890	open	—	04-10 19:58
Will the US strike Somalia next?	42	$14.0K	16,112	0	+16,112	open	—	01-13 20:53
us government funding lapse on january 31	5	$13.6K	10,541	5,833	+4,708	open	—	01-29 00:01
will december 2025 be the 4th or lower hottest on record	26	$12.8K	12,938	0	+12,938	open	—	01-11 01:15
Will Trump nominate Judy Shelton as the next Fed chair?	2	$12.0K	12,000	0	+12,000	open	—	01-30 12:07
will trump talk to vladimir putin in january	1	$11.6K	12,000	0	+12,000	open	—	02-02 08:30
will global temperature increase by more than 1pt19c in december 2025	11	$11.0K	11,191	0	+11,191	open	—	01-11 07:37
israel announces lebanon ceasefire extension by june 7	6	$10.7K	6,727	6,726	+0	open	—	06-04 02:21
will donk be said during the pgl bucharest 2026 grand final	5	$10.5K	10,851	0	+10,851	open	—	04-14 03:32
will trump admin release any more epstein related files by january 24 886	5	$10.3K	6,003	5,000	+1,003	open	—	01-15 07:13
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz before 2027?	6	$10.0K	10,000	0	+10,000	open	—	03-12 18:23
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by June 30?	2	$10.0K	10,000	0	+10,000	open	—	03-12 18:49

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
06-14 21:32:36	us announces new iran agreementceasefire extension by june 15 2889	Yes	BUY	14	98¢	$14	0xd7715a…
06-14 21:32:28	us announces new iran agreementceasefire extension by june 15 2889	Yes	BUY	1,544	98¢	$1,513	0xdc18c2…
06-14 21:32:28	us announces new iran agreementceasefire extension by june 15 2889	Yes	BUY	0	98¢	$0	0xcb98e8…
06-14 21:32:28	us announces new iran agreementceasefire extension by june 15 2889	Yes	BUY	6	98¢	$6	0xad7e6a…
06-14 07:58:40	us announces new iran agreementceasefire extension by june 13	No	BUY	4,405	94¢	$4,140	0x287b3b…
06-14 07:50:51	us announces new iran agreementceasefire extension by june 13	No	BUY	19,011	94¢	$17,813	0xbd73f1…
06-04 02:21:09	israel announces lebanon ceasefire extension by june 7	Yes	SELL	130	84¢	$110	0x7355a2…
06-04 02:20:34	israel announces lebanon ceasefire extension by june 7	Yes	SELL	315	84¢	$265	0x21d969…
06-04 02:20:30	israel announces lebanon ceasefire extension by june 7	Yes	SELL	385	84¢	$323	0x64591d…
06-04 02:20:00	israel announces lebanon ceasefire extension by june 7	Yes	SELL	1,374	83¢	$1,140	0xd6b27a…
06-04 02:18:10	israel announces lebanon ceasefire extension by june 7	Yes	SELL	4,522	82¢	$3,708	0x6bbe90…
06-04 02:12:09	israel announces lebanon ceasefire extension by june 7	Yes	BUY	6,727	76¢	$5,144	0x74b198…
06-02 10:44:02	MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	10,000	99¢	$9,890	0x4bf2a9…
06-02 08:07:36	MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	1,563	99¢	$1,552	0xa5ff60…
06-02 08:07:35	MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	4,898	99¢	$4,863	0xd300ea…
06-02 08:07:22	MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	4,081	99¢	$4,053	0x53d866…
06-02 08:07:12	MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	50	99¢	$50	0xb42517…
06-02 08:07:07	MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	6,816	99¢	$6,768	0xe36db5…
06-02 08:06:56	MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	1,429	99¢	$1,419	0x002e6d…
06-02 08:06:47	MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	12,540	99¢	$12,452	0x6da5f2…
06-02 08:06:40	MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	7,000	99¢	$6,951	0x112206…
06-02 08:06:18	MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	143	99¢	$142	0x37902b…
06-02 08:05:57	MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	1,480	99¢	$1,470	0x3ddd3d…
05-31 23:14:53	US x Cuba diplomatic meeting by May 31?	Yes	BUY	1,621	99¢	$1,612	0x9b4e80…
05-31 23:12:21	US x Cuba diplomatic meeting by May 31?	Yes	BUY	287	99¢	$286	0x5c49c8…
05-31 04:06:25	US x Cuba diplomatic meeting by May 31?	No	BUY	7,654	2¢	$161	0x2bc9b5…
05-31 01:21:59	US x Cuba diplomatic meeting by May 31?	Yes	BUY	802	96¢	$767	0x18ca3e…
05-31 01:21:55	US x Cuba diplomatic meeting by June 30?	Yes	BUY	124	97¢	$120	0x6e7069…
05-29 05:22:40	MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	534	89¢	$476	0x8fd3d5…
05-28 14:41:51	Claude 4.8 released by May 31?	Yes	BUY	2,397	90¢	$2,150	0xebba22…
05-28 14:22:57	Claude 4.8 released by July 31?	Yes	BUY	325	97¢	$314	0x97be25…
05-28 14:22:29	Claude 4.8 released by May 31?	Yes	BUY	108	90¢	$97	0x90581d…
05-28 14:22:29	Claude 4.8 released by May 31?	Yes	BUY	3,693	89¢	$3,271	0x5d5a75…
05-23 05:48:23	Will Trump say "250" or "250th" during events in Rockland County?	No	BUY	2	57¢	$1	0xdad9cb…
05-23 05:48:15	Will Trump say "250" or "250th" during events in Rockland County?	No	BUY	594	57¢	$338	0x7dfaa8…
05-22 22:12:06	Iran closes its airspace by May 24?	Yes	SELL	4	98¢	$4	0x6babbc…
05-22 22:12:05	Iran closes its airspace by May 24?	Yes	SELL	22	98¢	$22	0x2aee9c…
05-22 22:12:05	Iran closes its airspace by May 24?	Yes	SELL	6	98¢	$6	0x0634f6…
05-22 22:12:01	Iran closes its airspace by May 24?	Yes	SELL	990	98¢	$971	0x8a2cd0…
05-22 21:46:46	Iran closes its airspace by May 24?	Yes	SELL	4,856	86¢	$4,176	0x2e83cf…
05-22 21:46:26	Iran closes its airspace by May 24?	Yes	SELL	673	86¢	$579	0x6d33ff…
05-22 21:42:20	Iran closes its airspace by May 24?	Yes	SELL	11	86¢	$9	0xcaf227…
05-22 21:42:06	Iran closes its airspace by May 24?	Yes	SELL	7,438	86¢	$6,397	0x754ee4…
05-22 21:36:54	Iran closes its airspace by May 24?	Yes	BUY	7,607	69¢	$5,220	0xe55889…
05-22 21:36:05	Iran closes its airspace by May 31?	Yes	BUY	1,751	77¢	$1,349	0xec9529…
05-22 21:35:32	Iran closes its airspace by May 24?	Yes	BUY	564	60¢	$338	0x9f9825…
05-22 21:35:32	Iran closes its airspace by May 27?	Yes	BUY	353	79¢	$279	0x03573a…
05-22 21:35:18	Iran closes its airspace by May 27?	Yes	BUY	17	79¢	$13	0xb58c4d…
05-22 21:35:18	Iran closes its airspace by May 31?	Yes	BUY	1,000	77¢	$770	0xa212c5…
05-22 21:35:18	Iran closes its airspace by May 27?	Yes	BUY	91	79¢	$72	0x33f4b9…
05-22 21:35:16	Iran closes its airspace by May 27?	Yes	BUY	100	79¢	$79	0xb5fc94…
05-22 21:35:16	Iran closes its airspace by May 27?	Yes	BUY	100	79¢	$79	0x96641c…
05-22 21:35:16	Iran closes its airspace by May 27?	Yes	BUY	100	79¢	$79	0x640d75…
05-22 21:35:16	Iran closes its airspace by May 24?	Yes	BUY	12	60¢	$7	0x223c7b…
05-22 21:35:14	Iran closes its airspace by May 27?	Yes	BUY	100	79¢	$79	0xe135e5…
05-22 21:35:14	Iran closes its airspace by May 24?	Yes	BUY	10	60¢	$6	0xa94f54…
05-22 21:35:14	Iran closes its airspace by May 24?	Yes	BUY	1	60¢	$1	0x50b424…
05-22 21:35:14	Iran closes its airspace by May 24?	Yes	BUY	1	60¢	$1	0x225583…
05-22 21:35:11	Iran closes its airspace by May 31?	Yes	BUY	5	77¢	$4	0x0af534…
05-22 21:35:09	Iran closes its airspace by May 31?	Yes	BUY	604	77¢	$464	0x4f6e77…
05-22 21:35:07	Iran closes its airspace by May 24?	Yes	BUY	159	73¢	$116	0xd17f6b…
05-22 21:35:07	Iran closes its airspace by May 24?	Yes	BUY	18	60¢	$10	0xbeffc6…
05-22 21:35:07	Iran closes its airspace by May 24?	Yes	BUY	1,337	73¢	$976	0xa2d07a…
05-22 21:35:07	Iran closes its airspace by May 24?	Yes	BUY	18	60¢	$10	0x64f4cf…
05-22 21:35:07	Iran closes its airspace by May 24?	Yes	BUY	0	60¢	$0	0x424921…
05-22 21:35:06	Iran closes its airspace by May 24?	Yes	BUY	4	73¢	$3	0xfe5639…
05-22 21:35:06	Iran closes its airspace by May 24?	Yes	BUY	5	73¢	$4	0xf0fea9…
05-22 21:35:06	Iran closes its airspace by May 24?	Yes	BUY	5	73¢	$4	0xea65f0…
05-22 21:35:06	Iran closes its airspace by May 24?	Yes	BUY	4	73¢	$3	0xe22a94…
05-22 21:35:06	Iran closes its airspace by May 24?	Yes	BUY	59	73¢	$43	0xd0b062…
05-22 21:35:06	Iran closes its airspace by May 24?	Yes	BUY	4	73¢	$3	0xc141e8…
05-22 21:35:06	Iran closes its airspace by May 24?	Yes	BUY	4	73¢	$3	0xa7f7ba…
05-22 21:35:06	Iran closes its airspace by May 24?	Yes	BUY	13	73¢	$9	0xa06f81…
05-22 21:35:06	Iran closes its airspace by May 24?	Yes	BUY	39	73¢	$28	0x9a0cb7…
05-22 21:35:06	Iran closes its airspace by May 24?	Yes	BUY	5	73¢	$4	0x944910…
05-22 21:35:06	Iran closes its airspace by May 24?	Yes	BUY	41	73¢	$30	0x9087ce…
05-22 21:35:06	Iran closes its airspace by May 24?	Yes	BUY	4	73¢	$3	0x4904bd…
05-22 21:35:06	Iran closes its airspace by May 24?	Yes	BUY	4	73¢	$3	0x47e631…
05-22 21:35:06	Iran closes its airspace by May 24?	Yes	BUY	4	73¢	$3	0x334612…
05-22 21:35:06	Iran closes its airspace by May 24?	Yes	BUY	4	73¢	$3	0x2c0ba0…
05-22 21:35:06	Iran closes its airspace by May 24?	Yes	BUY	9,350	71¢	$6,593	0x191a11…
05-22 21:35:06	Iran closes its airspace by May 24?	Yes	BUY	68	73¢	$49	0x08a6a2…
05-22 21:34:52	Iran closes its airspace by May 24?	Yes	BUY	10	60¢	$6	0x6ea41d…
05-22 21:34:36	Iran closes its airspace by May 24?	Yes	BUY	2,505	56¢	$1,405	0x063797…
05-20 06:23:13	Trump kiss by May 31?	Yes	BUY	205	56¢	$114	0x4e0c67…
05-20 06:23:06	Trump kiss by May 31?	Yes	BUY	4	56¢	$2	0x07bc01…
05-20 06:22:19	Trump kiss by May 31?	Yes	BUY	23	56¢	$13	0x6d1cec…
05-20 06:17:06	Trump kiss by May 31?	Yes	BUY	342	57¢	$195	0x5dc056…
05-18 23:12:51	Will Trump say "Iran" during events with Xi Jinping?	No	BUY	3,090	98¢	$3,028	0xc2f810…
05-15 04:49:24	Will Trump say "Iran" during events with Xi Jinping?	Yes	BUY	1,030	93¢	$954	0x25025c…
05-11 05:20:29	Confirmed case of Hantavirus in US by May 15?	Yes	BUY	876	68¢	$596	0xa1d0b2…
05-11 04:48:40	Will Trump speak to Xi Jinping in May?	Yes	BUY	1,370	100¢	$1,365	0xf27b0c…
05-08 23:56:54	CDC issues Level 3 warning by December 31?	No	BUY	146	31¢	$45	0xae933d…
05-08 23:56:47	CDC issues Level 3 warning by December 31?	No	BUY	146	31¢	$45	0xa68295…
05-08 23:56:40	CDC issues Level 3 warning by December 31?	No	BUY	117	31¢	$36	0x58d654…
05-08 23:56:31	CDC issues Level 3 warning by December 31?	No	BUY	141	31¢	$44	0x4a0441…
05-08 23:56:05	CDC issues Level 3 warning by December 31?	No	BUY	33	31¢	$10	0x4ac2a6…
05-06 23:35:23	Epstein suicide note released by May 8?	Yes	BUY	100	6¢	$6	0x0be161…
05-06 23:33:28	Epstein suicide note released by May 8?	Yes	BUY	121	6¢	$8	0x90ab48…
05-01 21:53:12	Will Trump say "American Dream" at The Villages on May 1?	No	SELL	1	98¢	$1	0x785508…