Keen-Toll — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$1.57K

Unrealized P&L

-$59

Hit rate

58.1%

Resolved

1,178

Trades

10,575

lifetime

Volume

$366.6K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$35

Open exposure

2 positions

First seen

2026-01-01

last 09-09 02:32

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 91 days

Categories

Other

94% 57% -$1,311

Politics

4% 18% -$117

Tech

2% 33% -$146

Crypto

0% 50% +$1

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

19 active days in 12wk • peak 55 trades/day

Open positions (2) Resolved markets (30) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will Anthropic or OpenAI IPO first?	Anthropic		+8	$7	98¢	$8	+$1	08-23 07:21
Will Anthropic or OpenAI IPO first?	OpenAI		+8	$60	2¢	$0	-$60	08-23 21:35

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
will crude oil cl hit high 180 by end of march 692	250	$17.9K	9,363	9,413	-50	No	+$3	03-26 00:58
will the fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the march 2026 meeting	107	$14.1K	7,179	7,379	-200	No	-$7	03-18 12:59
will there be no change in fed interest rates after the march 2026 meeting	62	$11.9K	6,242	6,242	+0	Yes	+$5	03-17 22:12
will crude oil cl hit high 100 by end of march 658 396 769 971	106	$8.8K	4,934	5,034	-100	Yes	-$53	03-15 14:01
will crude oil cl hit high 200 by end of march 926	128	$8.2K	4,216	4,266	-50	No	+$7	03-22 20:57
will gold gc hit high 5500 by end of february 743 796 985 593 523 417 437	115	$8.2K	4,686	4,736	-50	No	-$59	02-27 22:18
will the government shutdown last 4 days or more 831	45	$7.4K	4,035	4,035	+0	Yes	-$2	02-02 15:08
will silver si hit high 120 by end of february 431 947 594 173 652 316	164	$6.2K	3,595	3,650	-55	No	+$15	02-26 15:50
trump out as president by march 31	26	$4.8K	2,502	2,502	+0	No	-$1	01-28 01:40
will crude oil cl hit high 105 by end of march 881	37	$4.5K	2,675	2,675	+0	No	-$71	03-27 02:04
will silver si hit low 40 by end of february 776 791 516 257 572 135 547 179	77	$3.6K	1,865	1,865	+0	No	-$4	02-22 14:05
will silver si hit low 75 by end of february 739 471 473 237 171 573 124 784	71	$3.4K	1,948	2,316	-368	Yes	-$18	02-17 14:06
will gold gc hit high 6200 by end of february 882 138 877 117 343 764 976	96	$3.3K	1,686	1,756	-70	No	+$4	02-24 08:20
will gold gc hit low 4000 by end of february 542 564 882 215 825 637 559 654 593 764 923	73	$3.1K	1,614	1,714	-100	No	-$10	02-24 14:43
will the fed decrease interest rates by 50 bps after the march 2026 meeting	19	$3.1K	1,600	1,600	+0	No	-$3	02-06 07:03
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meeting?	1	$3.1K	3,133	0	+3,133	Yes	+$75	05-14 16:27
Will GPT-6 be released by September 30, 2026?	168	$3.0K	5,049	741	+4,308	Yes	-$75	08-09 13:51
Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair by March 31, 2026?	65	$3.0K	1,832	1,696	+135	No	+$3	03-18 21:55
will logan pauls psa 10 pokmon illustrator sale price be over 7 million	92	$3.0K	1,933	1,622	+312	Yes	+$24	01-30 01:30
will gold gc hit high 6000 by end of february 957 635 788 121 773 745 586	78	$2.9K	1,569	1,519	+50	No	+$9	02-26 21:26
will gold gc hit high 7000 by end of february 271 168 354 381 713	47	$2.8K	1,461	1,411	+50	No	+$6	02-15 10:03
will crude oil cl hit low 85 by end of march 893 949 456 773	17	$2.7K	1,800	1,800	+0	No	-$109	03-26 20:55
nvda above 170 on february 27 2026	33	$2.7K	1,316	1,416	-100	Yes	+$11	02-27 20:49
will silver si hit high 180 by end of february 127 147	59	$2.7K	1,538	1,488	+50	No	+$7	02-26 07:25
Will Trump visit China by June 30?	3	$2.6K	2,647	0	+2,647	Yes	+$19	05-11 01:21
will silver si hit high 150 by end of february 397 652 494 395 172	66	$2.6K	1,451	1,431	+20	No	-$7	02-25 02:16
will gold gc hit high 5800 by end of february 759 378 429 713 662 579	104	$2.5K	1,517	1,546	-29	No	$0	02-26 12:46
will gold gc hit low 3000 by end of february 957 911 432 757 792 499 213 135	47	$2.5K	1,282	1,304	-22	No	-$4	02-12 14:40
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 meeting?	2	$2.5K	2,485	0	+2,485	Yes	+$35	04-29 13:47
will silver si hit high 160 by end of february 597 366 984 937	55	$2.4K	1,241	1,241	+0	No	+$4	02-23 08:40

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
09-09 02:32:52	GPT-7 released by December 31, 2027?	No	SELL	100	23¢	$23	0xe34106…
09-09 02:02:27	GPT-7 released by December 31, 2027?	No	BUY	100	24¢	$24	0x210132…
09-08 23:12:15	GPT-7 released by June 30, 2027?	No	SELL	73	50¢	$36	0xc3e01f…
09-08 22:41:58	GPT-7 released by June 30, 2027?	No	SELL	10	51¢	$5	0xc21cc7…
09-08 22:11:40	GPT-7 released by June 30, 2027?	No	SELL	17	55¢	$9	0x5e4862…
09-08 21:41:30	GPT-7 released by June 30, 2027?	No	BUY	100	73¢	$73	0x378d85…
09-04 22:18:49	Will Google have the best Text-to-Video AI at the end of October 2026?	Yes	SELL	11	63¢	$7	0x6ee2b9…
09-04 21:18:13	Will Google have the best Text-to-Video AI at the end of October 2026?	Yes	BUY	12	66¢	$8	0x329a75…
09-03 13:46:48	Will Google have the best Text-to-Video AI at the end of October 2026?	No	BUY	1	31¢	$0	0x388841…
09-02 17:24:03	Will Google have the best Text-to-Video AI at the end of October 2026?	No	BUY	3	34¢	$1	0x0a0801…
09-02 12:30:43	Will Google have the best Text-to-Video AI at the end of October 2026?	Yes	SELL	17	64¢	$11	0x75e5c0…
09-02 12:00:30	Will Google have the best Text-to-Video AI at the end of October 2026?	Yes	BUY	20	65¢	$13	0xb37172…
09-02 00:21:27	Will Sílvia Cristina win the second-most votes in the 2026 Rondônia Senate election?	No	SELL	35	57¢	$20	0xe14ec4…
09-02 00:04:10	Will Sílvia Cristina win the second-most votes in the 2026 Rondônia Senate election?	No	SELL	20	58¢	$12	0x5d2c6f…
09-01 23:51:12	Will Sílvia Cristina win the second-most votes in the 2026 Rondônia Senate election?	No	SELL	85	48¢	$41	0x83c5da…
09-01 22:40:54	Will Sílvia Cristina win the second-most votes in the 2026 Rondônia Senate election?	No	BUY	20	67¢	$13	0x532bbf…
08-31 18:20:12	Will Flavio Bolsonaro win the most votes in the next Brazil presidential election from Roraima?	No	SELL	15	1¢	$0	0x4c1fe6…
08-31 13:37:42	Will Google have the best Text-to-Video AI at the end of October 2026?	No	SELL	20	32¢	$6	0xc11af3…
08-31 13:07:30	Will Google have the best Text-to-Video AI at the end of October 2026?	No	BUY	20	36¢	$7	0xf36824…
08-31 11:13:53	Will Google have the best Text-to-Video AI at the end of October 2026?	Yes	SELL	8	62¢	$5	0xa4cf75…
08-31 10:43:42	Will Google have the best Text-to-Video AI at the end of October 2026?	Yes	BUY	8	64¢	$5	0x2ba10c…
08-31 02:51:15	Will Google have the best Text-to-Video AI at the end of October 2026?	Yes	SELL	20	55¢	$11	0xaff854…
08-31 02:21:04	Will Google have the best Text-to-Video AI at the end of October 2026?	Yes	BUY	20	63¢	$13	0xc6f2e1…
08-30 15:40:18	Will Sílvia Cristina win the second-most votes in the 2026 Rondônia Senate election?	Yes	SELL	14	32¢	$4	0x878f6f…
08-30 10:36:54	Will Sílvia Cristina win the second-most votes in the 2026 Rondônia Senate election?	Yes	BUY	14	33¢	$5	0x556c5f…
08-30 06:28:37	Will Sílvia Cristina win the second-most votes in the 2026 Rondônia Senate election?	Yes	SELL	14	36¢	$5	0x017a4d…
08-30 05:50:43	Will Sílvia Cristina win the second-most votes in the 2026 Rondônia Senate election?	Yes	BUY	14	37¢	$5	0xa945c2…
08-30 00:42:25	Will Google have the best Text-to-Video AI at the end of October 2026?	No	SELL	20	21¢	$4	0x63e6a7…
08-30 00:12:13	Will Google have the best Text-to-Video AI at the end of October 2026?	No	BUY	20	30¢	$6	0x42a9dd…
08-29 23:01:46	Will Google have the best Text-to-Video AI at the end of October 2026?	Yes	SELL	20	71¢	$14	0x87d00b…
08-29 22:31:33	Will Google have the best Text-to-Video AI at the end of October 2026?	Yes	BUY	20	80¢	$16	0x1585f6…
08-29 22:19:33	Will Sílvia Cristina win the second-most votes in the 2026 Rondônia Senate election?	Yes	SELL	30	31¢	$9	0x36cbf7…
08-29 21:59:24	Will Sílvia Cristina win the second-most votes in the 2026 Rondônia Senate election?	Yes	BUY	10	32¢	$3	0x55012e…
08-29 21:49:24	Will Sílvia Cristina win the second-most votes in the 2026 Rondônia Senate election?	Yes	BUY	20	34¢	$7	0x43cde9…
08-29 07:02:00	Will Sílvia Cristina win the second-most votes in the 2026 Rondônia Senate election?	No	SELL	25	49¢	$12	0x455f8c…
08-29 07:01:48	Will Sílvia Cristina win the second-most votes in the 2026 Rondônia Senate election?	No	BUY	20	61¢	$12	0x8e8bdb…
08-27 23:28:46	Will Carlos Bolsonaro win the most votes in the 2026 Santa Catarina Senate election?	Yes	SELL	15	29¢	$4	0x1cfcbe…
08-27 22:58:33	Will Carlos Bolsonaro win the most votes in the 2026 Santa Catarina Senate election?	No	BUY	2	65¢	$1	0x893b99…
08-27 22:58:31	Will Carlos Bolsonaro win the most votes in the 2026 Santa Catarina Senate election?	No	BUY	3	65¢	$2	0xc026d4…
08-27 22:58:31	Will Carlos Bolsonaro win the most votes in the 2026 Santa Catarina Senate election?	Yes	BUY	20	32¢	$6	0x868bc7…
08-27 15:06:18	Will Lorenia Valles Sampedro win the 2027 Sonora Governor Election?	Yes	SELL	7	55¢	$4	0xc89153…
08-27 14:35:55	Will Lorenia Valles Sampedro win the 2027 Sonora Governor Election?	Yes	SELL	13	48¢	$6	0x505e17…
08-27 14:05:45	Will Lorenia Valles Sampedro win the 2027 Sonora Governor Election?	Yes	BUY	20	60¢	$12	0x4b706c…
08-27 11:42:34	Will Carlos Bolsonaro win the most votes in the 2026 Santa Catarina Senate election?	Yes	SELL	5	34¢	$2	0xdf0845…
08-27 06:58:15	Will Lorenia Valles Sampedro win the 2027 Sonora Governor Election?	No	BUY	20	37¢	$7	0x9217ea…
08-27 06:58:12	Will Lorenia Valles Sampedro win the 2027 Sonora Governor Election?	Yes	BUY	20	58¢	$12	0x85ae81…
08-27 04:11:04	Will Carlos Bolsonaro win the most votes in the 2026 Santa Catarina Senate election?	Yes	SELL	5	33¢	$2	0xa00266…
08-27 03:40:54	Will Carlos Bolsonaro win the most votes in the 2026 Santa Catarina Senate election?	Yes	BUY	10	33¢	$3	0x72585c…
08-27 01:57:18	Will Carlos Bolsonaro win the most votes in the 2026 Santa Catarina Senate election?	Yes	SELL	10	33¢	$3	0xe5fa8f…
08-27 01:27:09	Will Carlos Bolsonaro win the most votes in the 2026 Santa Catarina Senate election?	Yes	BUY	10	33¢	$3	0x4a0a04…
08-27 01:17:12	Will Carlos Bolsonaro win the most votes in the 2026 Santa Catarina Senate election?	Yes	BUY	0	35¢	$0	0x8d5ba4…
08-26 21:08:28	Will Sílvia Cristina win the second-most votes in the 2026 Rondônia Senate election?	No	BUY	5	64¢	$3	0x2a96c2…
08-26 18:33:37	Will Lorenia Valles Sampedro win the 2027 Sonora Governor Election?	No	SELL	20	58¢	$12	0x270e60…
08-26 18:03:28	Will Lorenia Valles Sampedro win the 2027 Sonora Governor Election?	No	BUY	20	62¢	$12	0xca581e…
08-26 15:47:30	Will Carlos Bolsonaro win the most votes in the 2026 Santa Catarina Senate election?	Yes	SELL	20	33¢	$7	0xcb93cc…
08-26 15:15:39	Will Carlos Bolsonaro win the most votes in the 2026 Santa Catarina Senate election?	Yes	SELL	20	33¢	$7	0x7c48ca…
08-26 15:15:39	Will Carlos Bolsonaro win the most votes in the 2026 Santa Catarina Senate election?	Yes	BUY	20	35¢	$7	0x2e545e…
08-26 14:00:28	Will Google have the best Text-to-Video AI at the end of October 2026?	Yes	SELL	20	55¢	$11	0x5cd709…
08-26 13:30:09	Will Google have the best Text-to-Video AI at the end of October 2026?	Yes	BUY	20	59¢	$12	0x19d904…
08-26 09:37:03	Will Carlos Bolsonaro win the most votes in the 2026 Santa Catarina Senate election?	Yes	BUY	20	35¢	$7	0xca1cf4…
08-26 09:19:54	Will Angelica Katsanidou be the next Regional Board Chair of Region Kalmar County?	No	SELL	20	3¢	$1	0xecba6d…
08-26 09:19:52	Will annual inflation be 3.4% in August?	Yes	SELL	20	44¢	$9	0x077e3d…
08-25 05:35:00	Will PI get the third-most number of seats in the next Moroccan legislative elections?	Yes	SELL	20	32¢	$6	0x146191…
08-25 05:24:03	Will Denny Tamaki win the 2026 Okinawa gubernatorial election?	No	SELL	40	25¢	$10	0x449b71…
08-25 05:23:37	Will PI get the third-most number of seats in the next Moroccan legislative elections?	Yes	SELL	20	33¢	$7	0x36de77…
08-25 05:04:48	Will PI get the third-most number of seats in the next Moroccan legislative elections?	Yes	BUY	40	37¢	$15	0x22592a…
08-25 04:53:52	Will Denny Tamaki win the 2026 Okinawa gubernatorial election?	No	BUY	40	38¢	$15	0xb29622…
08-25 04:08:28	pikachu ex price up down on september 30 20260824121634999	Under	SELL	40	63¢	$25	0xef82df…
08-25 03:45:31	mega dragonite ex price up down on september 30 20260824121703111	Under	SELL	20	64¢	$13	0x20950a…
08-25 03:27:25	Will Otu Bassey Edet win the 2027 Cross River State gubernatorial election?	Yes	SELL	20	78¢	$16	0x7190ba…
08-25 03:15:18	pikachu ex price up down on september 30 20260824121634999	Under	BUY	40	74¢	$30	0xfd9c0e…
08-25 03:14:42	mega dragonite ex price up down on september 30 20260824121703111	Under	BUY	20	79¢	$16	0x62ba2a…
08-25 03:08:37	Will Marcel Van Hattem win the most votes in the 2026 Rio Grande do Sul Senate election?	Yes	SELL	40	31¢	$12	0x046799…
08-25 02:57:10	Will Otu Bassey Edet win the 2027 Cross River State gubernatorial election?	Yes	BUY	20	81¢	$16	0x34bc33…
08-25 02:38:48	Will Sergio Moro win the Governor of Paraná election?	No	SELL	40	22¢	$9	0x042bb6…
08-25 02:38:27	Will Marcel Van Hattem win the most votes in the 2026 Rio Grande do Sul Senate election?	Yes	BUY	40	37¢	$15	0x817a5f…
08-25 02:34:37	Will Celina Leão win the 2026 Federal District gubernatorial election?	No	SELL	40	27¢	$11	0xf5c9be…
08-25 02:25:48	Will George Harvie win the 2026 Delta mayoral election?	Yes	SELL	20	32¢	$6	0x96fb65…
08-25 02:08:34	Will Sergio Moro win the Governor of Paraná election?	No	BUY	40	23¢	$9	0xe61bac…
08-25 02:04:28	Will Celina Leão win the 2026 Federal District gubernatorial election?	No	BUY	40	33¢	$13	0x4bd2ba…
08-25 01:58:10	Will Jaques Wagner win the second-most votes in the 2026 Bahia Senate election?	Yes	SELL	40	67¢	$27	0xe2baac…
08-25 01:58:03	Will George Harvie win the 2026 Delta mayoral election?	Yes	BUY	20	31¢	$6	0x834106…
08-25 01:37:36	Will Teresa Surita win the most votes in the 2026 Roraima Senate election?	Yes	SELL	40	61¢	$24	0xecb4b4…
08-25 01:27:57	Will Jaques Wagner win the second-most votes in the 2026 Bahia Senate election?	Yes	BUY	40	74¢	$30	0xfd3d04…
08-25 01:07:15	Will Teresa Surita win the most votes in the 2026 Roraima Senate election?	Yes	BUY	19	66¢	$13	0x6f4a5a…
08-25 01:07:12	Will Teresa Surita win the most votes in the 2026 Roraima Senate election?	Yes	BUY	21	66¢	$14	0x7deb55…
08-25 00:57:28	Will Arthur Jarvis win the 2027 Cross River State gubernatorial election?	Yes	BUY	4	30¢	$1	0xe1139a…
08-25 00:51:33	Will MLSTP win the most seats in the 2026 São Tomé and Príncipe parliamentary election?	No	SELL	20	36¢	$7	0xebd337…
08-25 00:46:16	Will Nicole Cherlet win the 2026 Revelstoke mayoral election?	No	SELL	18	69¢	$12	0x8de718…
08-25 00:38:09	Will Eduardo Paes win the Governor of Rio de Janeiro election?	No	SELL	20	6¢	$1	0x027719…
08-25 00:37:27	Will Eduardo Paes win the Governor of Rio de Janeiro election?	No	BUY	20	6¢	$1	0xe22255…
08-25 00:21:22	Will MLSTP win the most seats in the 2026 São Tomé and Príncipe parliamentary election?	No	BUY	20	36¢	$7	0xacef5b…
08-25 00:11:30	Will Nicole Cherlet win the 2026 Revelstoke mayoral election?	No	BUY	18	73¢	$13	0xa8b557…
08-24 23:53:54	Will Gary Sulz win the 2026 Revelstoke mayoral election?	No	SELL	20	24¢	$5	0xe75a19…
08-24 23:35:22	Will Berry Vrbanovic win the 2026 Kitchener mayoral election?	Yes	BUY	1	88¢	$1	0xa0af59…
08-24 23:23:43	Will Gary Sulz win the 2026 Revelstoke mayoral election?	No	BUY	20	36¢	$7	0x1736e5…
08-24 23:14:40	Will Matthew Shoemaker win the 2026 Sault Ste. Marie mayoral election?	Yes	SELL	20	57¢	$11	0x545134…
08-24 23:13:54	Will Liberal–National win the most seats in the next Victorian state election?	No	SELL	20	28¢	$6	0xb5e524…
08-24 22:43:45	Will Liberal–National win the most seats in the next Victorian state election?	No	BUY	20	29¢	$6	0xdfcae0…
08-24 22:32:18	Will Steven Del Duca win the 2026 Vaughan mayoral election?	No	SELL	20	19¢	$4	0xebbfe6…