Steel-Monasticism — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$301

Unrealized P&L

+$0

Hit rate

47.1%

Resolved

Trades

lifetime

Volume

$6.22K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$173

Open exposure

1 position

First seen

2026-03-16

last 10-02 05:14

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 13 days

Categories

Other

82% 54% +$151

Politics

14% 0% -$3

Tech

4% 100% +$152

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

2 active days in 12wk • peak 2 trades/day

Open positions (1) Resolved markets (15) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Nicolás Maduro released from custody by December 31, 2026?	No		+4	$3	98¢	$3	+$0	10-02 05:14

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Ukraine recognizes Russian sovereignty over its territory by December 31, 2026?	3	$828	455	455	+0	open	—	05-04 05:15
Kadyrov out as Head of the Chechen Republic by June 30, 2026?	2	$768	400	400	+0	No	+$0	05-10 06:46
Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by June 30, 2026?	2	$761	399	399	+0	No	$0	05-12 05:29
Gustavo Petro out as leader of Colombia by June 30?	2	$720	365	365	+0	No	+$0	05-06 08:10
Spread: Shandong Taishan FC (-2.5)	2	$418	450	0	+450	Shandong Taishan FC	-$418	05-05 05:48
Spread: Nottingham Forest FC (-2.5)	1	$413	420	0	+420	Chelsea FC	+$7	05-04 06:09
Spread: Elche CF (-1.5)	1	$386	415	0	+415	RC Celta de Vigo	+$29	05-03 05:25
Spread: Levante UD (-2.5)	1	$384	389	0	+389	RC Celta de Vigo	+$5	05-12 05:35
Spread: Chelsea FC (-2.5)	1	$371	385	0	+385	Liverpool FC	+$14	05-09 07:31
Spread: Qingdao Hainiu FC (-2.5)	1	$360	372	0	+372	Wuhan San Zhen FC	+$12	05-06 08:26
Will the next Claude Opus model be released by September 30, 2026?	2	$248	400	0	+400	Yes	+$152	09-04 03:09
cs2 csdiil bw 2026 03 16	2	$199	362	0	+362	Bushido Wildcats	+$163	03-16 08:57
cs2 ecs ursa 2026 03 17	4	$174	580	0	+580	Ursa	+$406	03-17 07:04
hengam island no longer under iranian control by august 31 20260720014859847	5	$74	890	890	+0	No	-$13	08-02 08:49
us iran final nuclear deal by july 31 2026 20260621201255151	4	$56	860	860	+0	No	-$3	06-29 12:17
Spread: Villarreal CF (-2.5)	2	$51	858	0	+858	RCD Mallorca	-$51	05-10 07:35
Nicolás Maduro released from custody by December 31, 2026?	1	$3	4	0	+4	open	—	10-02 05:14

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
10-02 05:14:27	Nicolás Maduro released from custody by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	4	96¢	$3	0xcb9d88…
09-04 03:09:46	Will the next Claude Opus model be released by September 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	200	62¢	$124	0xcd39ac…
09-04 02:48:57	Will the next Claude Opus model be released by September 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	200	62¢	$124	0x5e3a75…
08-02 08:49:26	hengam island no longer under iranian control by august 31 20260720014859847	Yes	SELL	186	3¢	$6	0x6d5069…
08-02 08:48:18	hengam island no longer under iranian control by august 31 20260720014859847	Yes	SELL	704	3¢	$24	0x353e1d…
08-02 08:07:03	hengam island no longer under iranian control by august 31 20260720014859847	Yes	BUY	421	5¢	$21	0x357958…
08-02 08:07:02	hengam island no longer under iranian control by august 31 20260720014859847	Yes	BUY	454	5¢	$22	0x56b325…
08-02 08:07:00	hengam island no longer under iranian control by august 31 20260720014859847	Yes	BUY	15	5¢	$1	0xffddca…
06-29 12:17:44	us iran final nuclear deal by july 31 2026 20260621201255151	Yes	SELL	420	3¢	$13	0xa61ce4…
06-29 12:17:44	us iran final nuclear deal by july 31 2026 20260621201255151	Yes	SELL	440	3¢	$14	0x43d8fd…
06-29 09:54:44	us iran final nuclear deal by july 31 2026 20260621201255151	Yes	BUY	430	3¢	$15	0x476515…
06-29 09:54:43	us iran final nuclear deal by july 31 2026 20260621201255151	Yes	BUY	430	3¢	$15	0x58d39a…
05-12 05:35:21	Spread: Levante UD (-2.5)	RC Celta de Vigo	BUY	389	99¢	$384	0xf7439b…
05-12 05:29:18	Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by June 30, 2026?	No	SELL	399	95¢	$380	0x5cf9f4…
05-12 02:40:05	Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	399	95¢	$381	0x8b8ada…
05-10 07:35:11	Spread: Villarreal CF (-2.5)	Villarreal CF	BUY	440	6¢	$26	0xd93af8…
05-10 07:35:11	Spread: Villarreal CF (-2.5)	Villarreal CF	BUY	418	6¢	$25	0x4f7e98…
05-10 06:46:41	Kadyrov out as Head of the Chechen Republic by June 30, 2026?	No	SELL	400	96¢	$384	0x9b89cd…
05-10 05:51:47	Kadyrov out as Head of the Chechen Republic by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	400	96¢	$384	0x9fc906…
05-09 07:31:24	Spread: Chelsea FC (-2.5)	Liverpool FC	BUY	385	96¢	$371	0xf9b639…
05-06 08:26:24	Spread: Qingdao Hainiu FC (-2.5)	Wuhan San Zhen FC	BUY	372	97¢	$360	0x3241f2…
05-06 08:10:02	Gustavo Petro out as leader of Colombia by June 30?	No	SELL	365	99¢	$360	0x144d56…
05-06 06:46:38	Gustavo Petro out as leader of Colombia by June 30?	No	BUY	365	99¢	$360	0x21705d…
05-05 05:48:46	Spread: Shandong Taishan FC (-2.5)	Shanghai Shenhua FC	BUY	6	93¢	$5	0x623262…
05-05 05:46:28	Spread: Shandong Taishan FC (-2.5)	Shanghai Shenhua FC	BUY	444	93¢	$413	0x5e0722…
05-04 06:09:54	Spread: Nottingham Forest FC (-2.5)	Chelsea FC	BUY	420	98¢	$413	0x705e6a…
05-04 05:15:44	Ukraine recognizes Russian sovereignty over its territory by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	9	91¢	$8	0x9c023c…
05-04 05:14:48	Ukraine recognizes Russian sovereignty over its territory by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	446	91¢	$406	0x3014dc…
05-04 03:16:56	Ukraine recognizes Russian sovereignty over its territory by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	455	91¢	$414	0x5441fb…
05-03 05:25:10	Spread: Elche CF (-1.5)	RC Celta de Vigo	BUY	415	93¢	$386	0x49563d…
03-17 07:04:41	cs2 ecs ursa 2026 03 17	Ursa	BUY	7	30¢	$2	0x28345a…
03-17 07:01:17	cs2 ecs ursa 2026 03 17	Ursa	BUY	4	30¢	$1	0x8954a7…
03-17 07:00:37	cs2 ecs ursa 2026 03 17	Ursa	BUY	478	30¢	$144	0x432bac…
03-17 07:00:37	cs2 ecs ursa 2026 03 17	Ursa	BUY	90	30¢	$27	0x31841e…
03-16 08:57:23	cs2 csdiil bw 2026 03 16	Bushido Wildcats	BUY	10	55¢	$6	0xbaa1fb…
03-16 08:57:21	cs2 csdiil bw 2026 03 16	Bushido Wildcats	BUY	352	55¢	$194	0x8c987a…