Icy-Gingerbread — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$1.01K

Unrealized P&L

+$45

Hit rate

65.4%

Resolved

Trades

344

lifetime

Volume

$69.5K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$202

Open exposure

$427

4 positions

First seen

2026-01-08

last 10-31 18:12

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 37 days

Categories

Politics

84% 47% -$157

Other

16% 27% -$857

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

3 active days in 12wk • peak 20 trades/day

Open positions (4) Resolved markets (29) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 2?	Yes	+319	$300	97¢	$311	+$11	10-31 18:12
Iran leadership change by December 31?	Yes	-469	-$160	14¢	$-63	+$96	05-14 06:22
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	Yes	-300	$15	18¢	$-52	-$68	08-02 21:55
Will Yossi Cohen be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	Yes	+0	-$6	1¢	$0	+$6	10-28 23:21

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
khamenei out as supreme leader of iran by march 31	2	$7.0K	4,740	4,740	+0	Yes	+$2,500	03-01 05:55
will uk strike iran by march 31	16	$6.7K	5,319	2,800	+2,519	No	+$8	03-29 11:57
usisrael strike on fordow nuclear facility by march 15	10	$5.7K	3,270	3,270	+0	No	+$880	03-16 07:01
iran strike on qatar by march 31 2026	1	$4.7K	4,736	0	+4,736	Yes	+$10	03-01 06:00
US forces enter Iran by April 30?	3	$3.3K	2,099	2,099	+0	Yes	+$906	04-08 04:13
usisrael strike on fordow nuclear facility by march 31 388	40	$3.2K	3,865	3,865	+0	No	-$576	03-18 14:04
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31?	4	$2.9K	2,000	2,000	+0	Yes	+$320	03-04 18:16
israel strikes iran by january 9 2026	1	$2.9K	2,966	0	+2,966	No	+$64	01-08 10:42
will israel launch a major ground offensive in lebanon by march 31	4	$2.7K	2,017	2,017	+0	Yes	-$649	03-10 05:22
will turkey strike iran by march 31	5	$2.2K	1,208	1,208	+0	No	-$166	03-05 01:22
us x iran ceasefire by april 7	3	$2.0K	2,199	2,199	+0	Yes	-$2,019	04-08 04:11
US strikes Iran by March 15, 2026?	5	$1.7K	1,490	1,490	+0	Yes	+$951	02-28 09:10
us strikes iran by february 28 2026 227 967 547 688 589 491 592 418 452 924 384 915 464 672 196 157 993 596 269 535 381 391 471 256 988 997 296 225 762 973 292 827 345 182 558 215 794 879 189 761	5	$1.6K	3,911	3,911	+0	Yes	-$152	02-27 16:47
Israel strike on Yemen by April 30, 2026?	16	$1.5K	1,047	1,047	+0	No	-$122	04-06 13:06
US strikes Iran by March 31, 2026?	9	$1.5K	1,734	1,734	+0	Yes	+$69	02-19 16:52
hezbollah strike on israel by march 7	3	$1.3K	3,000	0	+3,000	Yes	+$1,663	03-01 21:59
US strikes Iran by March 8, 2026?	2	$1.2K	816	816	+0	Yes	+$465	02-28 09:09
hezbollah strike on israel by march 31 737 523	7	$1.2K	1,491	1,491	+0	Yes	-$429	02-04 21:09
will france strike iran by march 31	12	$880	3,000	3,000	+0	No	-$357	03-06 07:52
Israel election: will Likud lose seats?	15	$877	497	497	+0	Yes	+$16	10-31 18:09
will israel strike greater beirut by january 31	9	$860	1,588	0	+1,588	No	-$860	01-13 16:19
Will US or Israel strike Iran by February 15, 2026?	12	$853	1,155	534	+621	No	-$158	02-11 06:40
will another country strike iran by march 7 528	3	$758	1,289	1,289	+0	No	-$268	03-06 12:44
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?	6	$664	0	800	-800	No	-$136	05-14 17:33
Iran closes its airspace by May 31?	4	$662	1,200	0	+1,200	No	-$662	05-18 10:16
israel strikes iran by january 11 2026	1	$650	657	0	+657	No	+$7	01-11 13:31
us strikes iran by january 18 2026 991	3	$612	775	0	+775	No	+$163	01-18 07:48
usisrael strike yemen by march 31	15	$561	1,663	0	+1,663	No	-$561	03-29 10:40
khamenei out as supreme leader of iran by january 31	1	$550	2,532	0	+2,532	No	-$550	01-11 13:34
US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 2?	3	$492	1,831	1,512	+319	open	—	10-31 18:12

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
10-31 18:12:39	US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 2?	Yes	BUY	319	94¢	$300	0x4238ef…
10-31 18:12:22	US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 2?	No	SELL	1,512	6¢	$92	0xd85759…
10-31 18:11:55	US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 2?	No	BUY	1,512	7¢	$100	0x87fdf3…
10-31 18:09:58	Israel election: will Likud lose seats?	Yes	SELL	100	99¢	$99	0x1f60b2…
10-31 18:09:57	Israel election: will Likud lose seats?	Yes	SELL	200	99¢	$198	0xd80d05…
10-28 23:21:55	Will Yossi Cohen be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	Yes	SELL	721	1¢	$5	0xc8af0b…
10-28 22:39:46	Will Yossi Cohen be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	Yes	SELL	2	1¢	$0	0x1bfd2e…
10-28 22:28:43	Will Yossi Cohen be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	Yes	SELL	3	1¢	$0	0xa3d9d0…
10-28 22:18:37	Will Yossi Cohen be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	Yes	SELL	407	1¢	$3	0x661cdc…
10-28 21:42:11	Will Yossi Cohen be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	Yes	SELL	6	1¢	$0	0x41ac2e…
10-28 20:20:49	Will Yossi Cohen be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	Yes	SELL	0	1¢	$0	0xfec079…
10-28 20:10:53	Will Yossi Cohen be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	Yes	SELL	0	1¢	$0	0xa1d4a4…
10-28 20:10:47	Will Yossi Cohen be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	Yes	SELL	0	1¢	$0	0x0fbaaf…
10-28 20:10:38	Will Yossi Cohen be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	Yes	SELL	0	1¢	$0	0x223b8b…
10-28 19:55:37	Will Yossi Cohen be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	Yes	SELL	0	1¢	$0	0xb411f5…
10-28 19:55:28	Will Yossi Cohen be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	Yes	SELL	0	1¢	$0	0xabd068…
10-28 19:43:41	Will Yossi Cohen be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	Yes	SELL	0	1¢	$0	0xb21599…
10-28 19:43:28	Will Yossi Cohen be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	Yes	SELL	2	1¢	$0	0xda1100…
10-28 19:24:07	Will Yossi Cohen be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	Yes	SELL	143	1¢	$1	0xd93cc3…
10-28 18:08:10	Will Yossi Cohen be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	Yes	SELL	0	1¢	$0	0xb2cb16…
10-28 18:08:02	Will Yossi Cohen be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	Yes	SELL	0	1¢	$0	0x032ef3…
10-28 18:07:46	Will Yossi Cohen be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	Yes	SELL	0	1¢	$0	0xe69556…
10-28 17:51:47	Will Yossi Cohen be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	Yes	SELL	714	1¢	$5	0x1e2c9b…
10-28 17:46:25	Will Israel Katz be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	Yes	SELL	2,000	1¢	$16	0xd5ace1…
10-28 17:45:26	Will Likud win the second-most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	Yes	SELL	53	0¢	$0	0x939759…
10-27 16:22:35	Will Likud win the second-most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	Yes	BUY	53	74¢	$39	0x129993…
10-27 16:19:36	Israel election: will Likud lose seats?	Yes	BUY	300	96¢	$287	0x9f0337…
08-02 21:58:36	israel x iran ceasefire continues through august 9 20260727170733638	Yes	BUY	327	92¢	$301	0xbddd88…
08-02 21:57:06	israel x iran ceasefire continues through july 31 20260716224448968 384 155 519 798 243	Yes	SELL	76	100¢	$76	0xcb2267…
08-02 21:56:15	US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31?	Yes	SELL	600	9¢	$54	0x1800b4…
08-02 21:55:21	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	Yes	SELL	900	19¢	$171	0xe9b5f0…
07-22 15:12:30	israel x iran ceasefire continues through july 31 20260716224448968	Yes	BUY	76	58¢	$44	0x518963…
07-22 15:10:27	iran full airspace closure by july 27	Yes	BUY	130	32¢	$42	0x31f31c…
07-02 06:57:26	Will Yossi Cohen be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	Yes	BUY	2,000	0¢	$8	0x6ea042…
07-02 06:56:28	Will Israel Katz be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	Yes	BUY	2,000	0¢	$10	0x4a1845…
05-23 07:15:57	Israel closes its airspace by June 15?	Yes	BUY	100	58¢	$58	0x4a4d31…
05-23 07:15:57	Israel closes its airspace by June 15?	Yes	BUY	100	58¢	$58	0x09d833…
05-23 05:57:54	Iran closes its airspace by June 30?	Yes	SELL	80	99¢	$80	0xcabbc9…
05-23 05:56:23	Iran closes its airspace by June 30?	Yes	SELL	1	99¢	$1	0x2cec97…
05-23 05:54:19	Iran closes its airspace by June 30?	Yes	SELL	1	99¢	$1	0xf2ca04…
05-23 05:45:00	Iran closes its airspace by June 30?	Yes	SELL	1	99¢	$1	0xd91cfe…
05-23 05:40:24	Iran closes its airspace by June 30?	Yes	SELL	134	99¢	$133	0x78e96a…
05-23 05:39:47	Iran closes its airspace by June 30?	Yes	SELL	1	99¢	$1	0x1cbd21…
05-23 05:31:32	Iran closes its airspace by June 30?	Yes	SELL	1	99¢	$1	0xaba9a1…
05-18 10:16:52	Iran closes its airspace by May 31?	Yes	BUY	200	41¢	$82	0xcc7d07…
05-18 10:14:41	Will Israel launch a ground operation in Iran by May 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	1,000	10¢	$100	0x2c08d2…
05-17 13:28:52	Israel election: will Likud lose seats?	Yes	SELL	128	76¢	$97	0xaa0171…
05-17 11:04:26	Israel election: will Likud lose seats?	Yes	SELL	20	76¢	$15	0x63d8db…
05-17 10:18:47	Israel election: will Likud lose seats?	Yes	SELL	13	76¢	$10	0x4cff2e…
05-17 07:13:22	Israel election: will Likud lose seats?	Yes	SELL	10	76¢	$8	0xbe4125…
05-17 07:01:42	Will Israel launch a ground operation in Iran by May 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	480	7¢	$34	0xf61915…
05-17 04:42:07	Israel election: will Likud lose seats?	Yes	SELL	4	76¢	$3	0xcae85e…
05-15 18:00:17	Israel election: will Likud lose seats?	Yes	SELL	1	76¢	$1	0x83c00c…
05-15 17:41:21	Israel election: will Likud lose seats?	Yes	SELL	10	76¢	$8	0xc7960a…
05-15 17:40:53	Israel election: will Likud lose seats?	Yes	SELL	10	76¢	$8	0x23bb01…
05-15 07:57:38	Will Israel launch a ground operation in Iran by May 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	1,251	8¢	$100	0x0d8ea3…
05-15 05:53:41	Will Israel launch a ground operation in Iran by May 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	14	8¢	$1	0x15507f…
05-15 05:49:03	Will Israel launch a ground operation in Iran by May 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	435	8¢	$35	0x4dead6…
05-14 17:33:24	Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?	No	SELL	71	83¢	$59	0x8e276b…
05-14 17:07:53	Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?	No	SELL	6	83¢	$5	0x6edc8e…
05-14 12:15:43	Iran leadership change by June 30?	Yes	BUY	20	14¢	$3	0x652f70…
05-14 12:11:57	Iran leadership change by June 30?	Yes	BUY	12	14¢	$2	0x92005a…
05-14 12:11:56	Iran leadership change by June 30?	Yes	BUY	1,398	14¢	$196	0x9db393…
05-14 12:10:46	Will Israel launch a ground operation in Iran by May 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	10	8¢	$1	0xcdd37e…
05-14 08:31:13	Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?	No	SELL	127	83¢	$105	0x51096d…
05-14 07:10:38	Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?	No	SELL	236	83¢	$196	0xe57a16…
05-14 06:31:03	US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30?	Yes	BUY	1,000	13¢	$130	0x538d6d…
05-14 06:29:48	Iran closes its airspace by June 30?	Yes	BUY	220	47¢	$103	0x75d5ed…
05-14 06:28:38	Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?	No	SELL	75	83¢	$62	0xfd3e5b…
05-14 06:28:28	US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31?	Yes	BUY	600	28¢	$168	0xf52687…
05-14 06:27:47	US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30?	Yes	BUY	1,000	13¢	$130	0x09c8e6…
05-14 06:25:10	Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?	No	SELL	285	83¢	$237	0x2d355c…
05-14 06:22:38	Iran leadership change by December 31?	Yes	SELL	469	34¢	$160	0x9f4e6a…
05-12 15:20:55	Israel election: will Likud lose seats?	Yes	BUY	20	73¢	$15	0x6df4e5…
05-12 14:27:52	Israel election: will Likud lose seats?	Yes	BUY	4	73¢	$3	0x659242…
05-12 01:09:12	Israel election: will Likud lose seats?	Yes	BUY	134	73¢	$98	0x2b4eb5…
05-04 19:38:12	Iran closes its airspace by May 31?	Yes	BUY	389	58¢	$226	0xf0cea1…
05-04 19:37:36	Iran closes its airspace by May 31?	Yes	BUY	10	58¢	$6	0x9f3c05…
05-04 19:33:22	Iran closes its airspace by May 31?	Yes	BUY	601	58¢	$349	0xa6159d…
05-04 19:30:54	Iran closes its airspace by May 8?	Yes	BUY	800	33¢	$264	0xdeeaa7…
05-04 19:29:40	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	Yes	BUY	600	31¢	$186	0x0e1e68…
05-03 12:08:56	Israel election: will Likud lose seats?	Yes	BUY	39	73¢	$28	0x987eba…
04-26 17:40:28	Iran leadership change by May 31?	Yes	SELL	1,000	14¢	$140	0x0f7c91…
04-23 15:44:12	Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30?	Yes	SELL	10,000	1¢	$60	0x02de90…
04-23 00:19:52	Iran leadership change by May 31?	Yes	BUY	365	13¢	$47	0x3fefa7…
04-22 21:45:34	Iran leadership change by May 31?	Yes	BUY	37	13¢	$5	0xa6811f…
04-22 20:32:12	Iran leadership change by May 31?	Yes	BUY	598	13¢	$78	0xc867e9…
04-22 17:29:50	Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30?	Yes	BUY	10,000	1¢	$70	0x1d8a3a…
04-08 04:14:13	Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 30?	Yes	SELL	700	7¢	$49	0xa5836b…
04-08 04:13:37	US forces enter Iran by April 30?	Yes	SELL	2,099	100¢	$2,095	0x4115ad…
04-08 04:11:23	us x iran ceasefire by april 7	No	SELL	2,199	0¢	$7	0x8012e9…
04-06 13:06:19	Israel strike on Yemen by April 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	374	66¢	$247	0x7ba6ab…
04-06 13:04:09	Israel strike on Yemen by April 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	535	66¢	$353	0x740c91…
04-06 07:48:27	Israel strike on Yemen by April 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	19	66¢	$12	0x2fea87…
04-06 06:08:57	Israel strike on Yemen by April 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	12	66¢	$8	0x4c173f…
04-06 05:30:27	Israel strike on Yemen by April 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	5	66¢	$3	0x5bd71e…
04-06 05:06:55	Israel strike on Yemen by April 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	3	66¢	$2	0x8fff46…
04-06 04:56:01	us x iran ceasefire by april 7	No	BUY	69	96¢	$66	0x252715…
04-06 04:45:59	Israel strike on Yemen by April 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	100	66¢	$66	0x7112ad…
04-01 19:45:59	us x iran ceasefire by april 7	No	BUY	2,130	92¢	$1,959	0x571283…