Itchy-Orchestra — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$1.15K

Unrealized P&L

-$97

Hit rate

77.2%

Resolved

Trades

715

lifetime

Volume

$104.8K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$147

Open exposure

$665

2 positions

First seen

2026-03-24

last 10-27 23:10

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 24 days

Categories

Crypto

59% 89% +$1,560

Other

26% 86% +$513

Sports

15% 83% -$3,222

Politics

0% 100% +$0

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

2 active days in 12wk • peak 1 trade/day

Open positions (2) Resolved markets (29) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Predict.fun FDV above $300M one day after launch?	Yes		-570	-$438	97¢	$-554	-$116	06-02 08:53
Predict.fun FDV above $100M one day after launch?	Yes		+113	$92	98¢	$111	+$19	10-27 23:10

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
EdgeX FDV above $1B one day after launch?	38	$15.8K	8,504	8,504	+0	No	+$1,083	04-01 17:23
Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 in April?	131	$11.5K	7,736	7,617	+120	No	-$368	04-29 16:26
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $140 in April?	44	$6.4K	3,681	3,511	+171	No	+$245	04-18 04:31
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $160 in April?	15	$6.0K	3,050	3,046	+4	No	+$67	04-25 05:04
megaeth market cap fdv 2b one day after launch 738 867 649 272 765 733	58	$5.2K	3,529	3,345	+185	No	+$183	04-21 06:42
Spurs vs. Trail Blazers	23	$3.9K	2,946	2,942	+3	Spurs	-$57	04-26 01:48
megaeth market cap fdv 4b one day after launch 484 688 448 486 873 133 182	19	$3.9K	3,581	500	+3,081	No	+$113	04-30 10:35
Predict.fun FDV above $300M one day after launch?	21	$3.6K	2,411	2,981	-570	open	—	06-02 08:53
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	23	$3.5K	2,611	2,611	+0	No	+$340	05-29 04:27
Will Bitcoin dip to $75,000 in May?	83	$3.4K	3,082	3,032	+50	Yes	+$12	05-08 04:41
Will Hyperliquid reach $56 in April?	28	$3.3K	1,843	1,556	+288	No	+$47	04-28 13:04
megaeth market cap fdv 1pt5b one day after launch 371 844 879 681	6	$3.0K	2,520	2,520	+0	Yes	-$13	04-18 23:12
Nuggets vs. Timberwolves	8	$2.8K	3,674	0	+3,674	Timberwolves	-$2,797	04-26 02:15
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $150 in April?	12	$2.5K	1,354	1,348	+6	No	+$120	04-17 01:11
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $140 in May?	3	$2.5K	1,414	1,414	+0	No	+$14	05-01 15:24
Will Hyperliquid dip to $28 in April?	11	$2.4K	1,200	1,199	+1	No	+$3	04-28 07:40
Genius FDV above $80M one day after launch?	3	$2.0K	1,030	1,028	+2	Yes	+$9	04-13 15:52
EdgeX FDV above $2B one day after launch?	1	$2.0K	2,000	0	+2,000	No	+$2	04-01 17:31
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2026 NBA Finals?	3	$2.0K	1,000	1,000	+0	No	+$7	05-10 07:26
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $60 in April?	16	$2.0K	1,062	1,059	+3	No	+$20	04-08 00:57
USD.AI FDV above $2B one day after launch?	7	$2.0K	2,014	0	+2,014	No	+$51	04-22 16:17
Will the Houston Rockets win the NBA Western Conference Finals?	2	$1.4K	1,400	0	+1,400	No	+$10	05-02 02:52
Genius FDV above $50M one day after launch?	1	$1.0K	1,024	0	+1,024	Yes	+$4	04-13 15:54
Spurs vs. Trail Blazers	8	$1.0K	1,234	1,224	+11	Spurs	-$764	04-25 05:03
Will Ethereum reach $3,000 in April?	17	$958	502	501	+1	No	+$18	04-22 15:37
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $130 in April?	8	$811	526	520	+6	No	+$59	04-07 22:42
nba phi bos 2026 04 21 total 225pt5	5	$789	824	0	+824	Under	+$35	04-22 01:19
Based FDV above $50M one day after launch?	5	$732	373	373	+0	Yes	+$1	03-30 09:57
Will Hyperliquid reach $52 in April?	5	$676	679	0	+679	No	+$3	04-29 05:59
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in May?	5	$612	720	0	+720	Yes	+$108	05-03 08:01

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
10-27 23:10:57	Predict.fun FDV above $100M one day after launch?	Yes	BUY	113	98¢	$111	0xe29127…
10-25 08:41:36	Predict.fun FDV above $100M one day after launch?	Yes	SELL	120	99¢	$118	0x2e7a57…
08-10 06:37:27	Predict.fun FDV above $100M one day after launch?	Yes	BUY	120	83¢	$100	0xfacd8d…
06-02 08:53:48	Predict.fun FDV above $300M one day after launch?	Yes	SELL	668	69¢	$461	0x57550f…
06-02 01:14:21	Predict.fun FDV above $300M one day after launch?	Yes	SELL	336	69¢	$232	0x9980bb…
05-30 07:27:22	Predict.fun FDV above $300M one day after launch?	Yes	SELL	78	67¢	$52	0xdfc655…
05-30 07:19:52	Predict.fun FDV above $300M one day after launch?	Yes	SELL	122	67¢	$82	0x249fb8…
05-29 04:27:46	MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	No	SELL	181	70¢	$127	0x66ef01…
05-29 04:27:32	MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	No	SELL	5	70¢	$4	0x3effc3…
05-28 20:41:04	MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	5	87¢	$4	0x96fbe6…
05-28 20:15:37	Predict.fun FDV above $300M one day after launch?	Yes	SELL	22	68¢	$15	0x0201c3…
05-28 02:39:50	MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	28	92¢	$25	0xa8bad0…
05-26 07:55:24	Predict.fun FDV above $300M one day after launch?	Yes	SELL	37	68¢	$25	0x6946ff…
05-26 03:08:08	MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	14	91¢	$13	0x694662…
05-26 02:36:24	Predict.fun FDV above $300M one day after launch?	Yes	SELL	4	68¢	$3	0xd17fbe…
05-25 19:52:20	Predict.fun FDV above $300M one day after launch?	Yes	SELL	15	68¢	$10	0x1e8131…
05-23 06:06:34	MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	12	83¢	$10	0xe6bd28…
05-23 06:03:44	MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	3	83¢	$2	0x998aba…
05-21 04:58:36	MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	125	80¢	$100	0x02c35f…
05-20 08:54:45	MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	No	SELL	301	74¢	$222	0xe5148d…
05-20 08:46:21	MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	No	SELL	145	74¢	$107	0x57c9f4…
05-20 08:34:53	MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	No	SELL	30	76¢	$23	0xd40144…
05-20 08:31:35	MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	No	SELL	13	76¢	$10	0x598efe…
05-20 08:31:14	MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	No	SELL	20	76¢	$15	0x9db93a…
05-20 08:30:30	MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	No	SELL	1	76¢	$1	0x11e3f1…
05-20 08:30:23	MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	No	SELL	1,596	76¢	$1,213	0x3d69bb…
05-20 08:29:26	MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	No	SELL	18	76¢	$14	0xc59f1e…
05-18 14:21:12	MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	1,931	61¢	$1,178	0x4bf4be…
05-18 12:04:14	MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	25	63¢	$16	0x2cd1c5…
05-18 12:03:41	MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	18	62¢	$11	0x80ab17…
05-18 12:03:30	MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	50	64¢	$32	0x4053fe…
05-18 12:03:04	MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	100	65¢	$65	0xf7eb6c…
05-16 13:48:13	MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	No	SELL	300	65¢	$195	0x1e4199…
05-16 03:53:34	MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	300	45¢	$135	0x58c3ed…
05-10 17:19:57	Predict.fun FDV above $300M one day after launch?	Yes	SELL	200	66¢	$132	0x80a0de…
05-10 07:26:33	Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2026 NBA Finals?	No	SELL	1,000	100¢	$997	0xa84dd3…
05-08 04:58:24	Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2026 NBA Finals?	No	BUY	500	99¢	$496	0x297b2d…
05-08 04:41:16	Will Bitcoin dip to $75,000 in May?	Yes	SELL	560	50¢	$280	0xea9ae1…
05-08 04:20:13	Will Bitcoin dip to $75,000 in May?	Yes	SELL	6	50¢	$3	0xeeba52…
05-08 04:20:13	Will Bitcoin dip to $75,000 in May?	Yes	SELL	2	50¢	$1	0xcec6c0…
05-08 04:16:52	Will Bitcoin dip to $75,000 in May?	Yes	SELL	8	50¢	$4	0xc41a5d…
05-08 04:16:20	Will Bitcoin dip to $75,000 in May?	Yes	SELL	19	50¢	$9	0xaf329c…
05-08 04:16:20	Will Bitcoin dip to $75,000 in May?	Yes	SELL	19	50¢	$9	0x83e096…
05-08 04:16:17	Will Bitcoin dip to $75,000 in May?	Yes	SELL	13	50¢	$7	0xd8ee44…
05-08 04:16:10	Will Bitcoin dip to $75,000 in May?	Yes	SELL	7	50¢	$4	0xb4caf4…
05-08 04:16:10	Will Bitcoin dip to $75,000 in May?	Yes	SELL	21	50¢	$11	0x72d297…
05-08 04:16:03	Will Bitcoin dip to $75,000 in May?	Yes	SELL	1	50¢	$1	0xebcae2…
05-08 04:15:57	Will Bitcoin dip to $75,000 in May?	Yes	SELL	27	50¢	$13	0xe9c227…
05-08 04:15:57	Will Bitcoin dip to $75,000 in May?	Yes	SELL	21	50¢	$11	0xd91526…
05-08 04:15:57	Will Bitcoin dip to $75,000 in May?	Yes	SELL	10	50¢	$5	0x208d32…
05-08 04:15:57	Will Bitcoin dip to $75,000 in May?	Yes	SELL	2	50¢	$1	0x0f4d5c…
05-08 04:12:38	Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2026 NBA Finals?	No	BUY	500	99¢	$494	0xf3e4f5…
05-08 04:09:24	Will Bitcoin dip to $75,000 in May?	Yes	SELL	259	50¢	$129	0x5ec258…
05-08 03:18:46	Will Bitcoin dip to $75,000 in May?	Yes	SELL	227	53¢	$120	0x5a8b4f…
05-08 03:08:28	Will Bitcoin dip to $75,000 in May?	Yes	SELL	200	54¢	$108	0x3c4862…
05-08 02:59:32	Predict.fun FDV above $300M one day after launch?	Yes	BUY	169	64¢	$108	0xcf5983…
05-07 14:45:25	Will Bitcoin dip to $75,000 in May?	Yes	SELL	82	48¢	$40	0x1e2dd1…
05-07 14:38:07	Will Bitcoin dip to $75,000 in May?	Yes	SELL	3	48¢	$2	0x842c20…
05-07 14:38:07	Will Bitcoin dip to $75,000 in May?	Yes	SELL	4	48¢	$2	0x6591a1…
05-07 14:38:06	Will Bitcoin dip to $75,000 in May?	Yes	SELL	10	48¢	$5	0xdb1414…
05-07 13:47:47	Will Bitcoin dip to $75,000 in May?	Yes	SELL	100	46¢	$46	0x99d14f…
05-07 13:41:57	Predict.fun FDV above $300M one day after launch?	Yes	BUY	3	64¢	$2	0x88d167…
05-07 13:41:39	Predict.fun FDV above $300M one day after launch?	Yes	BUY	2	64¢	$1	0x84cc82…
05-07 12:20:33	Will Bitcoin dip to $75,000 in May?	Yes	BUY	26	44¢	$12	0x962eaf…
05-07 12:20:06	Will Bitcoin dip to $75,000 in May?	Yes	BUY	2	44¢	$1	0xae78fd…
05-07 12:18:09	Will Bitcoin dip to $75,000 in May?	Yes	BUY	72	44¢	$32	0x3c9a3d…
05-07 07:13:39	Will Bitcoin dip to $75,000 in May?	Yes	BUY	66	44¢	$29	0x5c0954…
05-07 07:10:09	Will Bitcoin dip to $75,000 in May?	Yes	BUY	5	44¢	$2	0xbc11c8…
05-07 06:55:27	Will Bitcoin dip to $75,000 in May?	Yes	BUY	5	44¢	$2	0x47843d…
05-07 06:40:57	Will Bitcoin dip to $75,000 in May?	Yes	BUY	5	44¢	$2	0xa2b7aa…
05-07 06:39:05	Will Bitcoin dip to $75,000 in May?	Yes	BUY	5	44¢	$2	0x57f854…
05-07 06:20:55	Will Bitcoin dip to $75,000 in May?	Yes	BUY	14	44¢	$6	0xc1ddb2…
05-07 04:39:44	Will Bitcoin dip to $75,000 in May?	Yes	SELL	126	46¢	$58	0x765d0b…
05-07 02:24:58	Will Bitcoin dip to $75,000 in May?	Yes	BUY	126	44¢	$55	0x546b72…
05-06 13:26:20	Will Bitcoin dip to $75,000 in May?	Yes	SELL	199	41¢	$82	0x327541…
05-06 12:12:14	Will Bitcoin dip to $75,000 in May?	Yes	BUY	200	38¢	$76	0x44abb0…
05-06 03:24:42	Will Bitcoin dip to $75,000 in May?	Yes	BUY	15	46¢	$7	0x26bc3d…
05-06 02:47:56	Will Bitcoin dip to $75,000 in May?	Yes	BUY	5	46¢	$2	0x32fa90…
05-06 02:21:28	Will Bitcoin dip to $75,000 in May?	Yes	BUY	4	46¢	$2	0x30f7b1…
05-06 02:03:26	Will Bitcoin dip to $75,000 in May?	Yes	BUY	5	46¢	$2	0x326a3f…
05-06 01:52:28	Will Bitcoin dip to $75,000 in May?	Yes	BUY	9	46¢	$4	0x93e673…
05-06 01:49:28	Will Bitcoin dip to $75,000 in May?	Yes	BUY	2	46¢	$1	0xef97f8…
05-06 01:48:54	Will Bitcoin dip to $75,000 in May?	Yes	BUY	14	46¢	$6	0x3abe2e…
05-06 01:48:10	Will Bitcoin dip to $75,000 in May?	Yes	BUY	3	46¢	$1	0x2b7416…
05-06 01:47:52	Will Bitcoin dip to $75,000 in May?	Yes	BUY	4	46¢	$2	0xfeac77…
05-06 01:47:52	Will Bitcoin dip to $75,000 in May?	Yes	BUY	14	46¢	$6	0xd72917…
05-06 01:47:52	Will Bitcoin dip to $75,000 in May?	Yes	BUY	18	46¢	$8	0xa70fcb…
05-06 01:47:52	Will Bitcoin dip to $75,000 in May?	Yes	BUY	6	46¢	$3	0x7d2a20…
05-06 01:47:52	Will Bitcoin dip to $75,000 in May?	Yes	BUY	2	46¢	$1	0x5d225d…
05-05 23:29:24	Will Bitcoin dip to $75,000 in May?	Yes	SELL	100	48¢	$48	0xb7ccfa…
05-05 18:14:00	Will Bitcoin dip to $75,000 in May?	Yes	BUY	100	45¢	$45	0x47f6d9…
05-05 15:16:16	Will Bitcoin dip to $75,000 in May?	Yes	BUY	100	46¢	$46	0xaf5695…
05-05 14:08:00	Predict.fun FDV above $300M one day after launch?	Yes	BUY	3	63¢	$2	0x093ca4…
05-05 14:07:58	Predict.fun FDV above $300M one day after launch?	Yes	BUY	3	63¢	$2	0xecae1f…
05-05 12:29:10	Will Bitcoin dip to $75,000 in May?	Yes	BUY	200	50¢	$100	0xf9ba11…
05-05 09:16:36	Will Bitcoin dip to $75,000 in May?	Yes	BUY	100	51¢	$51	0xe332c4…
05-05 09:16:04	Will Minnesota Timberwolves advance to the Conference Finals in the 2026 NBA Playoffs?	No	SELL	18	63¢	$11	0x19c721…
05-05 08:35:10	Predict.fun FDV above $300M one day after launch?	Yes	BUY	181	63¢	$114	0x2b003d…
05-05 06:55:12	Will Bitcoin dip to $75,000 in May?	Yes	BUY	200	49¢	$98	0x708a16…
05-05 02:54:50	Will Bitcoin dip to $75,000 in May?	Yes	BUY	100	52¢	$52	0x3aa94b…