Creamy-Nightmare — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$433

Unrealized P&L

+$0

Hit rate

41.0%

Resolved

Trades

lifetime

Volume

$8.78K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$244

Open exposure

1 position

First seen

2026-04-09

last 09-28 05:49

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 11 days

Categories

Politics

62% 67% +$1

Other

38% 38% -$434

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

2 active days in 12wk • peak 4 trades/day

Open positions (1) Resolved markets (11) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by December 31, 2026?	No		+3	$3	98¢	$3	+$0	09-28 05:49

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
will jd vance visit ukraine by december 31 2026 20260729210126059	2	$874	470	470	+0	open	—	08-01 02:12
US recognizes Russian sovereignty over Ukraine before 2027?	2	$869	475	475	+0	open	—	08-01 04:38
israel x lebanon diplomatic meeting by august 31 2026 20260720155040249	2	$869	465	465	+0	Yes	+$1	08-02 02:29
will russia enter mykhailivka by august 31	2	$865	470	470	+0	No	+$0	08-02 04:34
will ukraine re enter myrnohrad by december 31	2	$856	465	465	+0	open	—	08-23 03:20
will iran target saudi arabia by september 15 2026	2	$856	460	460	+0	No	+$0	08-23 02:03
will russia enter havrylivka by july 31 2026	2	$836	444	444	+0	No	+$0	07-07 06:21
ukraine coup attempt by december 31	2	$826	435	435	+0	open	—	07-07 03:09
fr2 clf bas 2026 04 24 spread home 2pt5	1	$418	435	0	+435	SC Bastia	+$17	04-24 08:41
elc wba wat 2026 04 21 spread away 2pt5	1	$406	410	0	+410	West Bromwich Albion FC	+$4	04-21 09:38
tur riz sam 2026 04 09 spread home 2pt5	1	$316	340	0	+340	Çaykur Rizespor	-$316	04-09 07:40
Iran closes its airspace by June 15?	4	$288	225	225	+0	Yes	+$0	05-22 08:18
U.S. agrees to a new trade deal with "Pakistan" before 2027?	4	$244	1,060	1,060	+0	open	—	05-30 05:01
Will Russia enter Orikhiv by June 30?	4	$111	1,015	1,015	+0	No	+$1	05-31 04:25
Spread: Real Sociedad de Fútbol B (-2.5)	2	$79	985	0	+985	Cultural y Deportiva Leonesa	-$79	05-30 05:22
Spread: SD Eibar (-1.5)	2	$62	1,030	0	+1,030	CD Castellón	-$62	05-31 04:27
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by December 31, 2026?	1	$3	3	0	+3	open	—	09-28 05:49

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
09-28 05:49:18	Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	3	95¢	$3	0xbd30c7…
08-23 03:20:10	will ukraine re enter myrnohrad by december 31	No	SELL	465	92¢	$428	0x4c8f19…
08-23 02:34:52	will ukraine re enter myrnohrad by december 31	No	BUY	465	92¢	$428	0x80a52b…
08-23 02:03:31	will iran target saudi arabia by september 15 2026	No	SELL	460	93¢	$428	0x492225…
08-23 01:31:00	will iran target saudi arabia by september 15 2026	No	BUY	460	93¢	$428	0x9d9602…
08-02 04:34:20	will russia enter mykhailivka by august 31	No	SELL	470	92¢	$432	0x085825…
08-02 02:59:11	will russia enter mykhailivka by august 31	No	BUY	470	92¢	$432	0x02c6f3…
08-02 02:29:33	israel x lebanon diplomatic meeting by august 31 2026 20260720155040249	Yes	SELL	465	94¢	$435	0x7745c0…
08-02 01:33:42	israel x lebanon diplomatic meeting by august 31 2026 20260720155040249	Yes	BUY	465	93¢	$434	0x8a6af7…
08-01 04:38:39	US recognizes Russian sovereignty over Ukraine before 2027?	No	SELL	475	91¢	$432	0x10be83…
08-01 02:56:36	US recognizes Russian sovereignty over Ukraine before 2027?	No	BUY	475	92¢	$437	0x04791b…
08-01 02:12:06	will jd vance visit ukraine by december 31 2026 20260729210126059	No	SELL	470	93¢	$437	0xba5c45…
08-01 01:27:57	will jd vance visit ukraine by december 31 2026 20260729210126059	No	BUY	470	93¢	$437	0x5b25e9…
07-07 06:21:31	will russia enter havrylivka by july 31 2026	No	SELL	444	94¢	$418	0x8bc204…
07-07 05:48:13	will russia enter havrylivka by july 31 2026	No	BUY	444	94¢	$418	0x12d1aa…
07-07 03:09:35	ukraine coup attempt by december 31	No	SELL	435	96¢	$418	0xd530e1…
07-07 02:30:20	ukraine coup attempt by december 31	No	BUY	435	94¢	$409	0x59d1e3…
05-31 04:27:18	Spread: SD Eibar (-1.5)	SD Eibar	BUY	500	6¢	$30	0x24631a…
05-31 04:27:17	Spread: SD Eibar (-1.5)	SD Eibar	BUY	530	6¢	$32	0x8e9bf4…
05-31 04:25:37	Will Russia enter Orikhiv by June 30?	Yes	SELL	495	6¢	$27	0xc4de9f…
05-31 04:25:18	Will Russia enter Orikhiv by June 30?	Yes	SELL	520	6¢	$29	0x44b88a…
05-31 02:54:07	Will Russia enter Orikhiv by June 30?	Yes	BUY	520	5¢	$28	0x6b426e…
05-31 02:53:46	Will Russia enter Orikhiv by June 30?	Yes	BUY	495	5¢	$27	0xbe0c8b…
05-30 05:22:13	Spread: Real Sociedad de Fútbol B (-2.5)	Real Sociedad de Fútbol B	BUY	485	8¢	$39	0xac4b53…
05-30 05:21:59	Spread: Real Sociedad de Fútbol B (-2.5)	Real Sociedad de Fútbol B	BUY	500	8¢	$40	0x7cc4b4…
05-30 05:01:02	U.S. agrees to a new trade deal with "Pakistan" before 2027?	Yes	SELL	540	15¢	$81	0x282333…
05-30 05:00:29	U.S. agrees to a new trade deal with "Pakistan" before 2027?	Yes	SELL	520	15¢	$78	0xae52e1…
05-30 02:36:13	U.S. agrees to a new trade deal with "Pakistan" before 2027?	Yes	BUY	520	8¢	$42	0xc5d0c6…
05-30 02:35:56	U.S. agrees to a new trade deal with "Pakistan" before 2027?	Yes	BUY	540	8¢	$43	0x729e68…
05-22 08:18:28	Iran closes its airspace by June 15?	No	SELL	220	64¢	$141	0x4111f8…
05-22 08:16:32	Iran closes its airspace by June 15?	No	BUY	220	64¢	$141	0xf7cd9e…
05-22 04:10:50	Iran closes its airspace by June 15?	No	SELL	5	60¢	$3	0x49ae83…
05-22 02:49:56	Iran closes its airspace by June 15?	No	BUY	5	59¢	$3	0xe98f07…
04-24 08:41:36	fr2 clf bas 2026 04 24 spread home 2pt5	SC Bastia	BUY	435	96¢	$418	0x5b732d…
04-21 09:38:30	elc wba wat 2026 04 21 spread away 2pt5	West Bromwich Albion FC	BUY	410	99¢	$406	0x7f2f5e…
04-09 07:40:23	tur riz sam 2026 04 09 spread home 2pt5	Samsunspor	BUY	340	93¢	$316	0x1cea89…