Pale-Seep — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$28

Unrealized P&L

+$3

Hit rate

100.0%

Resolved

113

Trades

163

lifetime

Volume

$4.40K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$27

Open exposure

$133

1 position

First seen

2026-01-09

last 11-05 23:18

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 37 days

Categories

Politics

48% 93% +$11

Other

37% 97% +$15

Crypto

14% 100% +$2

Tech

1% 100% +$0

Sports

0% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

34 active days in 12wk • peak 5 trades/day

Open positions (1) Resolved markets (26) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will Republicans lose the Alaska, Iowa, Kansas, Maine, Michigan, Ohio, and Texas Senate seats?	Yes		+135	$130	99¢	$133	+$3	11-05 23:18

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 31, 2026?	4	$293	151	151	+0	No	+$3	09-01 03:51
Will Likud win 25-29 seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	2	$263	134	134	+0	Yes	+$1	10-29 16:15
Next US-Iran senior diplomatic meeting by October 5, 2026?	2	$246	123	123	+0	No	+$0	10-08 05:39
Will Likud win 30-34 seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	3	$241	130	130	+0	No	+$4	10-28 03:01
US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 7, 2026?	2	$234	118	118	+0	No	+$1	09-07 12:48
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the second round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by 8–12%?	3	$223	123	123	-0	No	+$1	10-18 09:43
US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 14, 2026?	2	$222	112	112	+0	No	+$0	09-14 22:52
us iran final nuclear deal by august 18 2026 20260621201255153	2	$203	102	102	+0	No	+$1	08-17 13:51
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	2	$179	124	124	+0	open	—	10-25 21:47
Will the Democrats win the Minnesota Senate race in 2026?	1	$135	135	0	+135	Yes	+$0	11-04 05:02
Will Republicans lose the Alaska, Iowa, Kansas, Maine, Michigan, Ohio, and Texas Senate seats?	1	$130	135	0	+135	open	—	11-05 23:18
Will Augusto Cury finish in third place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	1	$122	123	0	+123	Yes	+$0	10-04 23:40
Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by August 31?	1	$118	118	0	+118	No	+$0	09-01 06:42
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 15?	1	$112	112	0	+112	No	+$0	09-16 08:35
Predict.fun FDV above $300M one day after launch?	2	$110	62	62	+0	open	—	10-13 03:20
Cap FDV above $150M one day after launch?	1	$104	105	0	+105	Yes	+$0	06-27 13:26
us x iran diplomatic meeting by august 7 2026	1	$103	104	0	+104	No	+$0	08-08 02:31
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31?	1	$88	88	0	+88	No	+$0	05-31 07:10
Will Shri Thanedar be the Democratic Nominee for MI-13?	1	$82	91	0	+91	No	+$9	08-04 20:53
GRVT FDV above $50M one day after launch?	1	$81	82	0	+82	Yes	+$1	07-30 12:03
Will Alphabet be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on September 30?	3	$81	41	41	+0	No	+$0	09-29 12:21
Will Ethereum reach $2,800 in April?	1	$77	77	0	+77	No	+$0	04-28 01:10
Will Italy be the Jury Winner in the Eurovision 2026 Grand Final?	1	$71	71	0	+71	No	+$0	05-13 01:40
us x iran diplomatic meeting by march 31 2027 20260922	1	$64	65	0	+65	No	+$1	09-30 17:57
US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by September 30?	1	$57	58	0	+58	No	+$2	09-30 17:57
will ethereum dip to 2300 in september 2026	2	$55	28	28	+0	No	+$0	09-30 17:38
tsla above 440 on march 31 2026	1	$55	55	0	+55	No	+$0	03-31 01:31
Will Thinky be the second-best AI lab at the end of August 2026?	1	$43	43	0	+43	No	+$0	08-27 08:54
Variational FDV above $4B one day after launch?	2	$42	23	23	+0	open	—	09-13 01:20
will anthropics valuation hit high 1pt25t by june 30	1	$38	38	0	+38	No	+$0	06-28 16:15

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
11-05 23:18:31	Will Republicans lose the Alaska, Iowa, Kansas, Maine, Michigan, Ohio, and Texas Senate seats?	Yes	BUY	135	96¢	$130	0xdd6e07…
11-04 05:02:15	Will the Democrats win the Minnesota Senate race in 2026?	Yes	BUY	135	100¢	$135	0x297b6f…
10-29 16:15:01	Will Likud win 25-29 seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	Yes	SELL	134	99¢	$132	0xff8e93…
10-29 09:16:31	Will Likud win 25-29 seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	Yes	BUY	134	98¢	$131	0xa3c852…
10-28 03:01:39	Will Likud win 30-34 seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	No	SELL	124	94¢	$117	0x6f3383…
10-28 02:59:38	Will Likud win 30-34 seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	No	SELL	6	94¢	$5	0x451049…
10-27 21:55:56	Will Likud win 30-34 seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	No	BUY	130	91¢	$118	0xcffda4…
10-25 22:08:56	Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the second round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by 8–12%?	Yes	SELL	260	0¢	$1	0x708ba8…
10-25 21:47:08	Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	No	SELL	124	74¢	$92	0x546897…
10-24 12:59:23	Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the second round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by 8–12%?	Yes	BUY	108	0¢	$0	0xff1fcf…
10-24 12:59:23	Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the second round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by 8–12%?	Yes	BUY	152	0¢	$0	0xbbdc60…
10-22 11:12:27	Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	No	BUY	124	70¢	$87	0x1a6c0c…
10-18 09:43:30	Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the second round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by 8–12%?	No	SELL	117	91¢	$106	0xcea4b3…
10-18 09:43:30	Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the second round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by 8–12%?	No	SELL	6	91¢	$6	0xaa11bc…
10-17 15:46:30	Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the second round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by 8–12%?	No	BUY	123	90¢	$111	0xc53a6b…
10-15 16:35:11	Will Slavia Prague win the 2026-27 UEFA Champions League Championship?	Yes	BUY	70	0¢	$0	0xbb10c6…
10-13 03:20:35	Predict.fun FDV above $300M one day after launch?	Yes	SELL	62	89¢	$55	0xaf909c…
10-12 15:14:02	Predict.fun FDV above $300M one day after launch?	Yes	BUY	62	89¢	$55	0xcc2229…
10-08 05:39:40	Next US-Iran senior diplomatic meeting by October 5, 2026?	No	SELL	123	100¢	$123	0xaa96a9…
10-06 05:04:42	Next US-Iran senior diplomatic meeting by October 5, 2026?	No	BUY	123	100¢	$123	0x240176…
10-04 23:40:35	Will Augusto Cury finish in third place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Yes	BUY	123	100¢	$122	0x40b5fa…
09-30 17:57:57	us x iran diplomatic meeting by march 31 2027 20260922	No	BUY	65	99¢	$64	0x5d7ac5…
09-30 17:57:09	US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by September 30?	No	BUY	58	97¢	$57	0x52d69b…
09-30 17:38:33	will ethereum dip to 2300 in september 2026	No	SELL	28	100¢	$28	0x056f8f…
09-30 00:38:06	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in September?	No	SELL	13	100¢	$13	0xd0fa1d…
09-29 12:43:26	Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $5,200 in September?	No	SELL	8	100¢	$8	0xfe95c7…
09-29 12:39:48	Will Ethereum reach $4,000 in September?	No	SELL	15	100¢	$15	0xa60687…
09-29 12:37:53	Will Solana dip to $50 in September?	No	SELL	17	100¢	$17	0x6b6c65…
09-29 12:21:48	Will Alphabet be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on September 30?	No	SELL	20	100¢	$20	0x59f190…
09-29 06:55:48	Will Alphabet be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on September 30?	No	SELL	20	100¢	$20	0x94b235…
09-28 15:09:30	Will Ethereum reach $4,000 in September?	No	BUY	15	100¢	$15	0x687812…
09-27 20:17:09	Will Alphabet be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on September 30?	No	BUY	41	100¢	$40	0x31c901…
09-27 14:08:36	will ethereum dip to 2300 in september 2026	No	BUY	28	100¢	$28	0x4d4214…
09-27 07:28:47	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in September?	No	BUY	13	99¢	$13	0xf6893c…
09-23 00:02:44	Will Solana dip to $50 in September?	No	BUY	17	100¢	$17	0x522531…
09-16 08:35:25	Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 15?	No	BUY	112	100¢	$112	0x566759…
09-14 22:52:28	US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 14, 2026?	No	SELL	112	100¢	$111	0x714142…
09-14 16:52:07	US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 14, 2026?	No	BUY	112	100¢	$111	0xb5a3b4…
09-13 01:20:13	Variational FDV above $4B one day after launch?	No	SELL	23	92¢	$21	0x479913…
09-09 15:04:24	Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $5,200 in September?	No	BUY	8	99¢	$8	0x204245…
09-08 13:52:39	Variational FDV above $4B one day after launch?	No	BUY	23	92¢	$21	0x92a412…
09-07 12:48:01	US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 7, 2026?	No	SELL	118	100¢	$118	0x32dc9c…
09-03 13:29:06	US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 7, 2026?	No	BUY	118	99¢	$117	0x30fabc…
09-01 06:42:39	Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by August 31?	No	BUY	118	100¢	$118	0xec11e8…
09-01 03:51:19	US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 31, 2026?	No	SELL	51	100¢	$51	0x35d1c4…
08-29 00:47:52	Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (LOW) $160 in August?	No	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0x077fe6…
08-27 14:39:13	US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 31, 2026?	No	BUY	51	95¢	$48	0x8cabdb…
08-27 08:54:52	Will Thinky be the second-best AI lab at the end of August 2026?	No	BUY	43	100¢	$43	0xc0f95a…
08-25 16:40:48	Will Elon Musk post 440-459 tweets from August 21 to August 28, 2026?	Yes	BUY	100	0¢	$0	0x73d1e9…
08-24 18:40:09	US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 31, 2026?	No	SELL	100	97¢	$97	0x143fd9…
08-23 23:29:18	us announces end of iranian blockade by august 31 2026 20260713152715084 642 513 584 641 939 632 729	No	BUY	100	96¢	$97	0x6a7503…
08-23 12:21:04	Will Elon Musk post 460-479 tweets from August 21 to August 28, 2026?	Yes	BUY	50	0¢	$0	0x146429…
08-17 22:06:46	Will DeepSeek be the second-best AI lab at the end of August 2026?	No	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0x17b61e…
08-17 13:51:36	us iran final nuclear deal by august 18 2026 20260621201255153	No	SELL	102	100¢	$102	0x62bf16…
08-10 08:33:24	us iran final nuclear deal by august 18 2026 20260621201255153	No	BUY	102	99¢	$101	0x618716…
08-09 02:11:21	Will Moonshot have the best AI model at the end of August 2026?	No	BUY	3	100¢	$2	0x20879d…
08-08 02:31:06	us x iran diplomatic meeting by august 7 2026	No	BUY	104	100¢	$103	0x4fc8bd…
08-06 06:38:35	Will Microsoft be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on August 31?	No	BUY	4	100¢	$4	0x3cf831…
08-05 09:07:08	Will Haley Stevens win the 2026 Michigan Democratic Primary?	No	BUY	17	100¢	$17	0x5b7f53…
08-04 20:53:33	Will Shri Thanedar be the Democratic Nominee for MI-13?	No	BUY	91	90¢	$82	0xbbb8f9…
08-04 03:55:12	Will Broadcom be the largest company in the world by market cap on August 31?	No	BUY	3	100¢	$3	0x71b1f1…
08-04 00:42:00	will wti reach 150 in august 2026	No	BUY	4	99¢	$4	0x916360…
07-31 19:54:45	us x iran diplomatic meeting by july 31 2026 20260622191708361	No	BUY	6	100¢	$6	0xd22544…
07-30 12:03:32	GRVT FDV above $50M one day after launch?	Yes	BUY	82	99¢	$81	0x0e7d77…
07-30 04:34:53	Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Yes	BUY	22	0¢	$0	0xc2a7a8…
07-30 04:27:53	Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Yes	BUY	2	0¢	$0	0x3c40b6…
07-30 03:19:53	Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Yes	BUY	2	0¢	$0	0x842be0…
07-30 03:17:39	Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Yes	BUY	2	0¢	$0	0x50a187…
07-30 03:01:54	Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Yes	BUY	48	0¢	$0	0x3850df…
07-30 02:39:47	Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Yes	BUY	0	0¢	$0	0x9ba36e…
07-30 01:45:42	Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Yes	BUY	78	0¢	$0	0x685d91…
07-29 03:41:18	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in July?	No	BUY	4	100¢	$4	0x81bc22…
07-26 22:15:19	will xagusd dip to 44 in july 2026	No	BUY	3	100¢	$3	0xeb1a03…
07-25 04:59:16	Will Google have the best AI model at the end of July 2026?	No	BUY	2	100¢	$2	0xab1582…
07-25 04:29:01	Will Google have the best AI model at the end of July 2026?	No	BUY	3	100¢	$3	0x5a2601…
07-25 01:17:48	will bitcoin dip to 50k in july 2026 812	No	BUY	3	99¢	$3	0xa04f00…
07-23 05:02:04	will xagusd dip to 46 in july 2026	No	BUY	3	100¢	$3	0xef6229…
07-23 04:04:55	will xagusd dip to 48 in july 2026	No	BUY	5	99¢	$5	0x21750e…
07-13 19:58:58	will ethereum dip to 800 in july 2026 717	No	BUY	2	100¢	$2	0x1e25d3…
06-29 21:50:32	will coin reach 195 in june 2026	No	BUY	13	100¢	$13	0xf96d03…
06-29 05:46:34	Will Silver (SI) settle at $70-$80 in June?	No	BUY	5	100¢	$5	0x524232…
06-29 04:19:13	Will Silver (SI) hit (LOW) $35 by end of June?	No	BUY	16	100¢	$16	0x3ad258…
06-28 22:44:29	Will Gold (GC) hit (LOW) $3,800 by end of June?	No	BUY	33	100¢	$33	0x34d45c…
06-28 16:15:20	will anthropics valuation hit high 1pt25t by june 30	No	BUY	38	100¢	$38	0x3d8ee2…
06-27 15:01:22	will wti dip to 60 in june 2026 371 314 412	No	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0x3ebd20…
06-27 13:26:02	Cap FDV above $150M one day after launch?	Yes	BUY	105	100¢	$104	0xa65b5d…
05-31 07:10:00	Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31?	No	BUY	88	100¢	$88	0x47a1dd…
05-25 10:06:22	Will Alphabet Inc. (GOOGL) hit (LOW) $310 in May?	No	BUY	3	100¢	$3	0x9c392d…
05-24 18:00:21	Will Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) hit (LOW) $330 in May?	No	BUY	3	100¢	$3	0xbeb418…
05-24 10:49:35	Will Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) hit (LOW) $330 in May?	No	BUY	3	100¢	$3	0x5b7fd8…
05-22 19:43:20	Will NVIDIA be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on May 31?	No	BUY	3	100¢	$3	0xe1f928…
05-13 01:40:43	Will Italy be the Jury Winner in the Eurovision 2026 Grand Final?	No	BUY	71	100¢	$71	0x1035ad…
05-09 08:07:03	Will Alphabet Inc. (GOOGL) hit (LOW) $280 in May?	No	BUY	3	99¢	$3	0xb4e120…
05-09 00:12:43	Will Solana reach $150 in May?	No	BUY	3	99¢	$3	0x352e56…
05-08 15:37:41	Will Amazon be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on May 31?	No	BUY	3	100¢	$3	0xf5a579…
05-08 04:59:32	Will ByteDance have the second best AI model at the end of May 2026?	No	BUY	4	100¢	$4	0xe8b876…
05-07 22:58:53	Will Ethereum dip to $1,200 in May?	No	BUY	3	99¢	$3	0xb6e477…
05-07 19:35:44	Will OpenAI have the third best AI model at the end of May 2026?	No	BUY	3	99¢	$3	0x40bfbd…
05-07 14:39:16	Will Microsoft be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on May 31?	No	BUY	5	100¢	$5	0x05e575…
05-07 13:42:56	Will Microsoft be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on May 31?	No	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0x07a66f…