Reliable-Sausage — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$26

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

67.9%

Resolved

394

Trades

665

lifetime

Volume

$5.83K

lifetime

Avg / trade

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-01-25

last 08-20 11:24

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 114 days

Categories

Crypto

52% 97% -$14

Sports

21% 53% +$1

Other

16% 71% -$18

Politics

10% 53% +$6

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

1 active day in 12wk • peak 4 trades/day

Open positions Resolved markets (29) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 English Premier League?	36	$228	147	147	+0	Yes	-$2	03-19 13:58
Will Manchester City win the 2025–26 English Premier League?	27	$194	122	122	+0	No	$0	03-19 22:47
Will the Toronto Raptors win the NBA Eastern Conference Finals?	24	$176	91	91	+0	No	$0	03-19 03:27
US strikes Iran by March 31, 2026?	14	$109	89	89	+0	Yes	-$1	02-12 01:29
will the iranian regime fall by march 31	10	$90	52	52	+0	No	$0	02-28 16:59
Will the Minnesota Wild win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup?	12	$80	42	42	+0	No	$0	04-29 11:42
GTA VI released before June 2026?	9	$80	44	38	+6	No	+$0	03-04 07:56
Will Trump nominate Judy Shelton as the next Fed chair?	10	$68	35	35	+0	No	$0	02-28 04:37
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2026 NBA Finals?	8	$66	34	34	+0	No	$0	03-19 14:45
russia x ukraine ceasefire by december 31 2026	4	$64	39	39	+0	open	—	08-20 10:43
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026?	8	$58	51	51	+0	Yes	$0	02-17 23:45
Will Lens win the 2025–26 French Ligue 1?	6	$56	32	32	+0	No	$0	02-27 18:02
will xander schauffele win the 2026 masters tournament	7	$52	27	27	+0	No	$0	03-11 12:31
US strikes Iran by June 30, 2026?	7	$50	44	35	+9	Yes	+$3	02-23 11:26
Supreme Court rules in favor of Trump's tariffs?	8	$50	35	35	+0	No	$0	02-20 15:01
will wagner moura win best actor at the 98th academy awards	4	$48	50	0	+50	No	+$2	03-14 21:17
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2026 NBA Finals?	6	$48	38	38	+0	No	$0	03-19 11:05
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by June 30?	8	$48	34	34	+0	Yes	$0	02-21 00:36
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League?	7	$46	24	24	+0	No	$0	03-16 16:16
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30?	6	$44	25	25	+0	No	+$0	03-19 04:22
Will the Colorado Avalanche win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup?	7	$42	27	27	+0	No	$0	03-03 05:05
bitcoin up or down march 5 12am et	2	$40	20	20	+0	Down	+$0	03-05 06:05
bitcoin up or down march 8 10pm et	2	$40	20	20	+0	Up	+$0	03-09 03:50
Will Tottenham win the 2025–26 Champions League?	4	$36	18	18	+0	No	$0	02-22 07:05
will the fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the march 2026 meeting	4	$34	19	19	+0	No	+$0	02-11 13:30
lal rea ray 2026 02 01 ray	4	$32	17	17	+0	No	+$0	02-01 14:03
Will the Los Angeles Kings win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup?	4	$32	17	17	+0	No	+$0	02-14 08:46
Will the Boston Celtics win the 2026 NBA Finals?	5	$30	17	17	+0	No	$0	03-20 03:09
bitcoin up or down april 20 2026 9am et	2	$27	17	17	+0	Down	-$6	04-20 13:57
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 9PM ET	2	$25	16	16	+0	Down	-$7	06-03 01:53

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
08-20 11:24:49	Ukraine agrees not to join NATO before 2027?	No	SELL	7	91¢	$6	0xecba9a…
08-20 10:48:40	Ukraine recognizes Russian sovereignty over its territory by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	5	95¢	$5	0x8d9756…
08-20 10:44:24	russia x ukraine ceasefire by october 31 2026	No	SELL	8	92¢	$7	0x9c3c38…
08-20 10:43:42	russia x ukraine ceasefire by december 31 2026	No	SELL	39	82¢	$32	0xe47222…
07-07 23:10:02	russia x ukraine ceasefire by december 31 2026	No	BUY	14	80¢	$11	0xb21c5b…
07-07 23:10:01	russia x ukraine ceasefire by december 31 2026	No	BUY	13	80¢	$11	0x5b1a6c…
07-07 23:03:44	russia x ukraine ceasefire by december 31 2026	No	BUY	12	80¢	$10	0x7e7322…
07-07 19:14:02	Will Switzerland vs. Colombia end in a draw?	No	BUY	15	66¢	$10	0xbed9a1…
07-05 23:10:01	mlb sd lad 2026 07 05 total 9pt5	Over	BUY	9	53¢	$5	0xadcc6d…
07-05 01:07:13	mlb phi kc 2026 07 04	Kansas City Royals	BUY	12	12¢	$2	0x344379…
06-30 02:55:56	mlb mia col 2026 06 29 spread away 2pt5	Colorado Rockies	BUY	1	76¢	$1	0x9cc799…
06-30 02:55:53	mlb mia col 2026 06 29 spread away 2pt5	Colorado Rockies	BUY	7	76¢	$5	0x8b77ce…
06-28 21:13:34	mlb hou det 2026 06 28	Houston Astros	BUY	6	89¢	$5	0xb78ae5…
06-24 20:24:05	fifwc bih qat 2026 06 24 total 3pt5	Over	BUY	13	70¢	$9	0xf8c875…
06-24 01:49:19	mlb chc nym 2026 06 22	Chicago Cubs	BUY	11	57¢	$6	0xb84d5d…
06-23 23:57:47	mlb chc nym 2026 06 23 total 8pt5	Over	BUY	6	87¢	$5	0xe06470…
06-23 01:08:32	mlb ari stl 2026 06 22	St. Louis Cardinals	BUY	10	90¢	$9	0xe13bce…
06-20 22:52:41	mlb wsh tb 2026 06 20 total 6pt5	Over	BUY	9	71¢	$6	0xdf28e4…
06-20 12:13:31	Ukraine recognizes Russian sovereignty over its territory by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	5	97¢	$5	0x24eb78…
06-20 01:09:23	mlb wsh tb 2026 06 19	Tampa Bay Rays	BUY	5	86¢	$4	0xc647b0…
06-20 01:09:23	mlb wsh tb 2026 06 19	Tampa Bay Rays	BUY	2	86¢	$1	0x1c9181…
06-19 23:20:13	mlb mil atl 2026 06 19 spread away 1pt5	Atlanta Braves	BUY	14	58¢	$8	0xda82ed…
06-18 20:51:28	mlb bal sea 2026 06 18 total 10pt5	Under	BUY	6	73¢	$5	0x3f1537…
06-18 01:03:11	mlb sf atl 2026 06 17	San Francisco Giants	BUY	8	84¢	$7	0x29ee02…
06-17 18:09:58	mlb sf atl 2026 06 16	San Francisco Giants	BUY	15	50¢	$7	0x25ccee…
06-17 07:09:58	iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through hormuz by june 30	No	SELL	7	86¢	$6	0xb34941…
06-17 01:03:32	mlb nym cin 2026 06 16 spread home 1pt5	Cincinnati Reds	BUY	7	73¢	$5	0x4630df…
06-15 04:17:45	russia x ukraine ceasefire by october 31 2026	No	BUY	8	79¢	$6	0x7e2eee…
06-13 20:44:37	Seattle Mariners vs. Washington Nationals	Washington Nationals	BUY	6	84¢	$5	0x953410…
06-13 17:25:28	iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through hormuz by june 30	No	BUY	7	70¢	$5	0x9c7d7d…
06-13 08:17:31	Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30?	No	SELL	7	97¢	$7	0xe488a8…
06-12 00:02:34	wnba nyl atl 2026 06 11 spread home 3pt5	Atlanta Dream	BUY	8	62¢	$5	0x0ef5ec…
06-11 03:16:10	nba sas nyk 2026 06 10 spread home 1pt5	Spurs	BUY	8	81¢	$6	0x6674f0…
06-11 02:39:51	nba sas nyk 2026 06 10 spread away 11pt5	Spurs	BUY	11	71¢	$8	0x5380e3…
06-11 00:47:42	mlb min det 2026 06 10	Detroit Tigers	BUY	20	51¢	$10	0xca9935…
06-11 00:46:18	mlb lad pit 2026 06 10 spread away 3pt5	Pittsburgh Pirates	BUY	21	35¢	$7	0x11b5ff…
06-10 20:35:21	Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30?	No	BUY	7	96¢	$7	0x402233…
06-10 18:05:30	mlb bos tb 2026 06 10	Tampa Bay Rays	BUY	15	66¢	$10	0xa5a141…
06-10 01:32:09	mlb sea bal 2026 06 09	Baltimore Orioles	BUY	19	50¢	$9	0x3bbfe8…
06-10 00:33:07	mlb min det 2026 06 09 total 8pt5	Over	BUY	8	65¢	$5	0xec06db…
06-09 01:43:55	nba sas nyk 2026 06 08 total 225pt5	Over	BUY	10	51¢	$5	0x6f5b5d…
06-09 00:38:33	mlb bos tb 2026 06 08 total 4pt5	Over	BUY	14	64¢	$9	0x81bdc4…
06-08 07:44:10	Ukraine agrees not to join NATO before 2027?	No	BUY	7	87¢	$6	0x92da4a…
06-07 21:48:43	mlb laa lad 2026 06 07 total 8pt5	Over	BUY	7	68¢	$5	0xbf4420…
06-07 20:46:57	mlb nym sd 2026 06 07 spread away 1pt5	San Diego Padres	BUY	12	41¢	$5	0x7e9968…
06-07 20:19:25	mlb bal tor 2026 06 07 spread home 1pt5	Toronto Blue Jays	BUY	6	79¢	$5	0x97a9c2…
06-07 20:19:25	mlb bal tor 2026 06 07 spread home 1pt5	Toronto Blue Jays	BUY	4	79¢	$3	0x02f78c…
06-06 17:23:09	wnba sea min 2026 06 06 total 162pt5	Over	BUY	1	52¢	$0	0x64ab0b…
06-06 17:23:06	wnba sea min 2026 06 06 total 162pt5	Over	BUY	9	52¢	$5	0xabf614…
06-06 02:59:49	nba nyk sas 2026 06 05 spread away 1pt5	Knicks	BUY	9	91¢	$8	0xebf488…
06-06 02:20:22	nba nyk sas 2026 06 05 spread home 1pt5	Knicks	BUY	8	66¢	$5	0x51c333…
06-05 02:33:55	mlb lad ari 2026 06 04	Los Angeles Dodgers	BUY	10	61¢	$6	0x18211b…
06-04 23:18:42	mlb tor atl 2026 06 04	Toronto Blue Jays	BUY	18	53¢	$10	0xf2d29c…
06-04 00:47:39	nba nyk sas 2026 06 03 total 217pt5	Over	BUY	6	53¢	$3	0xd5867c…
06-03 03:51:01	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 11PM ET	Down	BUY	12	100¢	$12	0x7c1166…
06-03 01:53:35	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 9PM ET	Down	SELL	16	55¢	$9	0x6b4136…
06-03 01:50:58	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 9PM ET	Down	BUY	16	99¢	$16	0x05d703…
06-03 01:03:17	San Diego Padres vs. Philadelphia Phillies	Philadelphia Phillies	BUY	11	86¢	$9	0x179691…
06-02 19:59:30	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 3PM ET	Down	BUY	15	94¢	$14	0xa9190c…
06-01 22:51:05	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 6PM ET	Up	BUY	12	100¢	$12	0x460217…
06-01 10:51:18	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 6AM ET	Down	BUY	10	99¢	$10	0x429aa4…
05-31 19:07:09	Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	12	83¢	$10	0x9796f5…
05-31 19:06:18	Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by May 31?	No	BUY	8	99¢	$8	0x786ea1…
05-31 19:06:01	Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by May 31?	No	BUY	9	100¢	$9	0x6c08b5…
05-30 16:07:00	Exact Score: Paris Saint-Germain FC 2 - 3 Arsenal FC?	No	SELL	6	4¢	$0	0x954007…
05-30 11:01:50	Exact Score: Paris Saint-Germain FC 2 - 3 Arsenal FC?	No	BUY	6	98¢	$6	0x96a6bb…
05-30 10:01:38	Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Arsenal FC: O/U 5.5	Under	BUY	9	96¢	$9	0x2edd05…
05-30 01:53:45	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 9PM ET	Up	BUY	12	100¢	$12	0x38dc67…
05-29 07:50:13	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 3AM ET	Down	BUY	13	100¢	$13	0xe136dd…
05-29 01:51:40	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 9PM ET	Down	BUY	15	100¢	$15	0xb8b328…
05-28 07:57:15	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 3AM ET	Up	BUY	13	100¢	$13	0xdcbb4e…
05-27 01:50:40	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 9PM ET	Down	BUY	11	98¢	$11	0xb7463e…
05-25 22:53:06	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 6PM ET	Down	BUY	16	100¢	$16	0x5dd33b…
05-25 19:57:14	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 3PM ET	Down	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0xee744d…
05-22 11:53:18	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 7AM ET	Up	BUY	16	99¢	$16	0xcbd946…
05-20 07:51:25	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 3AM ET	Down	BUY	19	100¢	$19	0x6cddff…
05-20 02:51:21	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 10PM ET	Down	BUY	10	99¢	$10	0x5c785e…
05-20 01:50:57	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 9PM ET	Down	SELL	18	16¢	$3	0x0c07c1…
05-20 01:50:13	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 9PM ET	Down	BUY	18	85¢	$15	0x1c689f…
05-19 20:50:25	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 4PM ET	Up	BUY	16	99¢	$16	0x2037c4…
05-19 07:50:49	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 3AM ET	Up	BUY	18	100¢	$18	0x362719…
05-18 11:50:44	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 7AM ET	Up	BUY	9	100¢	$9	0x257c07…
05-18 07:54:55	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 3AM ET	Up	BUY	14	100¢	$14	0x0c8798…
05-18 02:53:10	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 10PM ET	Down	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0x6bd60a…
05-17 22:50:19	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 6PM ET	Down	BUY	15	100¢	$15	0x9ea2d3…
05-17 20:54:12	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 4PM ET	Down	BUY	17	99¢	$17	0xd4a9af…
05-17 12:11:18	Rayo Vallecano de Madrid vs. Villarreal CF: O/U 5.5	Under	BUY	19	94¢	$18	0xe745ef…
05-17 03:50:13	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 11PM ET	Up	BUY	10	99¢	$10	0x5618ba…
05-16 11:50:56	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 7AM ET	Up	BUY	15	99¢	$14	0x9b262f…
05-16 10:57:18	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 6AM ET	Down	BUY	14	99¢	$14	0x458573…
05-16 07:53:22	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 3AM ET	Down	BUY	16	100¢	$16	0x6ad88a…
05-15 19:57:39	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 3PM ET	Down	BUY	6	100¢	$6	0xdcb93f…
05-15 14:51:33	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 10AM ET	Up	BUY	8	97¢	$8	0xa311c4…
05-15 10:56:07	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 6AM ET	Up	BUY	7	100¢	$7	0x04a213…
05-15 07:52:18	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 3AM ET	Up	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0xe068af…
05-15 06:50:53	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 2AM ET	Up	BUY	10	99¢	$10	0x5fb9cb…
05-15 03:50:15	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 11PM ET	Down	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0x5fe72b…
05-15 00:50:42	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 8PM ET	Up	BUY	11	100¢	$11	0xd9f5fa…
05-14 19:54:22	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 3PM ET	Down	BUY	17	99¢	$17	0x840268…
05-14 11:50:31	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 7AM ET	Down	BUY	11	100¢	$11	0xb3a387…