Upset-Chateau — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$61

Unrealized P&L

+$11

Hit rate

49.6%

Resolved

Trades

351

lifetime

Volume

$8.23K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$23

Open exposure

$75

1 position

First seen

2026-03-10

last 06-01 23:00

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 2 days

Categories

Other

94% 60% $-61

Politics

6% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

47 active days in 12wk • peak 45 trades/day

Open positions (1) Resolved markets Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	No		+80	$64	94¢	$75	+$11	06-01 23:00

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
GTA VI released before June 2026?	24	$1.2K	625	625	+0	open	—	03-28 14:57
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?	5	$718	420	420	+0	open	—	05-11 16:27
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by April 30?	3	$365	200	200	+0	open	—	05-09 11:27
will lee cronins the mummy score at least 55 on the rotten tomatoes tomatometer 897 885 432	7	$319	440	0	+440	open	—	04-16 13:33
highest temperature in toronto on april 9 2026 18corhigher	12	$316	200	200	+0	open	—	04-09 20:37
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	4	$195	200	0	+200	open	—	05-26 21:45
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 22, 2026?	2	$190	200	0	+200	open	—	05-22 13:48
highest temperature in toronto on april 8 2026 7c	5	$186	220	0	+220	open	—	04-08 18:29
highest temperature in toronto on april 10 2026 6corbelow	8	$178	230	0	+230	open	—	04-10 18:07
highest temperature in toronto on april 9 2026 17c	8	$178	402	397	+5	open	—	04-09 20:55
Will "Michael" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 80m?	4	$175	370	0	+370	open	—	04-14 23:33
highest temperature in toronto on april 8 2026 5c	26	$166	271	70	+202	open	—	04-08 20:38
Will the criminal investigation into Jerome Powell be dropped by April 30?	2	$156	200	200	+0	open	—	04-24 15:39
will the super mario galaxy movie opening weekend box office be greater than 200m	3	$154	100	100	+0	open	—	04-04 05:08
highest temperature in toronto on march 25 2026 7c	6	$128	170	0	+170	open	—	03-25 17:58
will you me tuscany opening weekend box office be greater than 11m	1	$122	210	0	+210	open	—	04-07 21:03
will they will kill you score at least 65 on the rotten tomatoes tomatometer	3	$119	170	0	+170	open	—	03-28 19:12
will trumps approval rating be less than 39pt0 on april 3 2026	4	$115	135	0	+135	open	—	04-02 20:00
Will "Star Wars: The Mandalorian and Grogu" score at least 55 on the Rotten Tomatoes Tomatometer?	1	$111	139	0	+139	open	—	05-19 13:19
will donald trump announce that the united states blockade of the strait of hormuz has been lifted by april 23 2026	2	$101	140	0	+140	open	—	04-21 14:35
will you me tuscany opening weekend box office be less than 8m	2	$100	80	80	+0	open	—	04-12 22:49
will trumps approval rating be between 39pt5 and 39pt9 on april 17 2026	5	$95	100	0	+100	open	—	04-17 17:54
Will "Star Wars: The Mandalorian and Grogu" score at least 60 on the Rotten Tomatoes Tomatometer?	6	$95	100	97	+3	open	—	05-19 20:42
Will "Obsession" score at least 95 on the Rotten Tomatoes Tomatometer?	10	$90	200	200	+0	open	—	05-17 21:38
Will "Michael" score at least 40 on the Rotten Tomatoes Tomatometer?	5	$89	190	190	+0	open	—	04-27 13:30
highest temperature in toronto on april 8 2026 6c	10	$89	146	199	-53	open	—	04-08 21:20
will the super mario galaxy movie score at least 45 on the rotten tomatoes tomatometer	6	$88	199	0	+199	open	—	04-02 15:27
Will France be the Jury Winner in the Eurovision 2026 Grand Final?	3	$87	60	60	+0	open	—	04-02 12:14
will they will kill you opening weekend box office be less than 5m	6	$87	443	0	+443	open	—	03-29 07:51
highest temperature in toronto on march 26 2026 14c	1	$85	90	0	+90	open	—	03-26 14:59

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
06-01 23:00:39	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	No	BUY	80	80¢	$64	0xc8653b…
05-26 21:45:49	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	No	BUY	159	97¢	$155	0x1e9058…
05-26 15:39:46	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	No	BUY	21	97¢	$20	0xd79940…
05-26 15:35:37	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	No	BUY	12	97¢	$12	0xc85bc1…
05-26 15:34:55	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	No	BUY	8	97¢	$8	0xba532e…
05-22 13:55:10	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026?	No	BUY	45	81¢	$37	0x5f60b3…
05-22 13:49:50	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026?	No	BUY	25	81¢	$20	0x9ad880…
05-22 13:48:01	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 22, 2026?	No	BUY	181	95¢	$172	0x780c3a…
05-22 13:46:41	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 22, 2026?	No	BUY	19	95¢	$18	0x35d944…
05-20 20:12:22	Will there be at least 2000 measles cases in the U.S. by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	33	87¢	$29	0x1940a3…
05-19 20:42:31	Will "Star Wars: The Mandalorian and Grogu" score at least 60 on the Rotten Tomatoes Tomatometer?	Yes	SELL	12	41¢	$5	0x4785e5…
05-19 20:30:42	Will "Star Wars: The Mandalorian and Grogu" score at least 60 on the Rotten Tomatoes Tomatometer?	Yes	SELL	55	41¢	$23	0xcf60a6…
05-19 20:02:58	Will "Star Wars: The Mandalorian and Grogu" score at least 60 on the Rotten Tomatoes Tomatometer?	Yes	SELL	20	41¢	$8	0x23118b…
05-19 20:02:46	Will "Star Wars: The Mandalorian and Grogu" score at least 60 on the Rotten Tomatoes Tomatometer?	Yes	SELL	5	41¢	$2	0x0d0a17…
05-19 20:00:34	Will "Star Wars: The Mandalorian and Grogu" score at least 60 on the Rotten Tomatoes Tomatometer?	Yes	SELL	5	41¢	$2	0xee20dc…
05-19 18:48:46	Will "Star Wars: The Mandalorian and Grogu" score at least 65 on the Rotten Tomatoes Tomatometer?	Yes	SELL	44	9¢	$4	0x5a5337…
05-19 18:17:11	Will "Star Wars: The Mandalorian and Grogu" score at least 65 on the Rotten Tomatoes Tomatometer?	Yes	SELL	56	9¢	$5	0x7a9d5d…
05-19 13:19:41	Will "Star Wars: The Mandalorian and Grogu" score at least 65 on the Rotten Tomatoes Tomatometer?	Yes	BUY	98	48¢	$47	0xc200e8…
05-19 13:19:30	Will "Star Wars: The Mandalorian and Grogu" score at least 60 on the Rotten Tomatoes Tomatometer?	Yes	BUY	100	55¢	$55	0xd0c747…
05-19 13:19:23	Will "Star Wars: The Mandalorian and Grogu" score at least 55 on the Rotten Tomatoes Tomatometer?	Yes	BUY	139	80¢	$111	0x392ed1…
05-19 06:48:07	Will "Star Wars: The Mandalorian and Grogu" score at least 65 on the Rotten Tomatoes Tomatometer?	Yes	BUY	2	48¢	$1	0xdc11e0…
05-18 20:57:19	Will "Star Wars: The Mandalorian and Grogu" score at least 85 on the Rotten Tomatoes Tomatometer?	No	BUY	6	68¢	$4	0x8e74eb…
05-17 21:38:15	Will "Obsession" score at least 95 on the Rotten Tomatoes Tomatometer?	Yes	SELL	35	5¢	$2	0x3c30ef…
05-17 21:36:33	Will "Obsession" score at least 95 on the Rotten Tomatoes Tomatometer?	Yes	SELL	55	5¢	$3	0xac2272…
05-17 21:36:21	Will "Obsession" score at least 95 on the Rotten Tomatoes Tomatometer?	Yes	SELL	55	5¢	$3	0x48a63f…
05-17 21:36:14	Will "Obsession" score at least 95 on the Rotten Tomatoes Tomatometer?	Yes	SELL	55	5¢	$3	0x1df763…
05-16 16:53:32	Will Australia be in the top 3 at Eurovision 2026?	No	BUY	1	29¢	$0	0x728fd1…
05-16 16:47:35	Will Greece be in the top 3 at Eurovision 2026?	No	BUY	8	69¢	$6	0xbeed15…
05-16 16:44:33	Will Greece be in the top 3 at Eurovision 2026?	No	BUY	19	69¢	$13	0x08b09f…
05-16 16:17:34	Will Bulgaria be in the top 3 at Eurovision 2026?	No	BUY	55	68¢	$38	0x8ac154…
05-16 16:16:24	Will Greece be in the top 3 at Eurovision 2026?	No	BUY	32	69¢	$22	0xa07c54…
05-16 16:15:44	Will Israel be in the top 3 at Eurovision 2026?	No	BUY	64	58¢	$37	0xfc04e2…
05-16 16:15:32	Will France be in the top 3 at Eurovision 2026?	Yes	BUY	39	5¢	$2	0x8de037…
05-16 16:07:13	Will Israel be in the top 3 at Eurovision 2026?	No	BUY	16	58¢	$9	0x0dcf18…
05-16 16:06:57	Will Australia be in the top 3 at Eurovision 2026?	No	BUY	10	29¢	$3	0xd9c9ab…
05-16 16:02:58	Will Bulgaria be in the top 3 at Eurovision 2026?	No	BUY	5	68¢	$4	0xc94ffb…
05-16 15:43:53	Will Finland be in the top 3 at Eurovision 2026?	No	BUY	290	17¢	$49	0xe8e3ce…
05-16 15:43:11	Will Italy be in the top 3 at Eurovision 2026?	Yes	BUY	60	8¢	$5	0x33c7ca…
05-16 15:37:21	Will Israel be in the top 3 at Eurovision 2026?	No	BUY	20	58¢	$12	0x096d5a…
05-16 15:36:53	Will France be in the top 3 at Eurovision 2026?	Yes	BUY	61	5¢	$3	0x527edc…
05-16 15:34:16	Will Bulgaria be in the top 3 at Eurovision 2026?	No	BUY	9	68¢	$6	0xbdc710…
05-16 15:31:33	Will Australia be in the top 3 at Eurovision 2026?	No	BUY	25	29¢	$7	0x5b8cb6…
05-16 14:43:48	Will "Is God Is" score at least 97 on the Rotten Tomatoes Tomatometer?	Yes	SELL	9	81¢	$7	0x6f7434…
05-16 14:27:35	Will Albania be in the top 10 at Eurovision 2026?	No	BUY	20	64¢	$13	0x67a0a5…
05-16 12:57:31	Will Australia be in the top 10 at Eurovision 2026?	No	BUY	140	5¢	$7	0x90a9e4…
05-14 14:44:49	Will "Obsession" score at least 95 on the Rotten Tomatoes Tomatometer?	Yes	BUY	7	40¢	$3	0xc6a41a…
05-14 14:44:39	Will "Obsession" score at least 95 on the Rotten Tomatoes Tomatometer?	Yes	BUY	47	40¢	$19	0x78e4dd…
05-14 14:44:21	Will "Obsession" score at least 95 on the Rotten Tomatoes Tomatometer?	Yes	BUY	84	40¢	$34	0x346227…
05-14 14:41:33	Will "Obsession" score at least 95 on the Rotten Tomatoes Tomatometer?	Yes	BUY	25	40¢	$10	0xe354c4…
05-14 14:40:39	Will "Obsession" score at least 95 on the Rotten Tomatoes Tomatometer?	Yes	BUY	25	40¢	$10	0xd98ac0…
05-14 14:38:56	Will "Obsession" score at least 95 on the Rotten Tomatoes Tomatometer?	Yes	BUY	12	40¢	$5	0xee1474…
05-14 13:34:18	Will "Is God Is" score at least 97 on the Rotten Tomatoes Tomatometer?	Yes	BUY	9	24¢	$2	0xa06be8…
05-11 16:27:12	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?	No	SELL	420	100¢	$420	0x6adab2…
05-11 11:36:46	Will "The Sheep Detectives" score at least 95 on the Rotten Tomatoes Tomatometer?	Yes	SELL	100	0¢	$0	0x556203…
05-10 05:31:01	Will "Mortal Kombat II" score at least 65 on the Rotten Tomatoes Tomatometer?	No	BUY	5	66¢	$3	0x00f4d5…
05-10 05:30:49	Will "Mortal Kombat II" score at least 65 on the Rotten Tomatoes Tomatometer?	No	BUY	24	66¢	$16	0x90b399…
05-10 05:30:40	Will "Mortal Kombat II" score at least 65 on the Rotten Tomatoes Tomatometer?	No	BUY	31	66¢	$20	0x4407a3…
05-10 00:27:01	Will "Mortal Kombat II" score at least 70 on the Rotten Tomatoes Tomatometer?	No	BUY	25	96¢	$24	0x2b6e4d…
05-09 23:22:56	Will "Mortal Kombat II" score at least 65 on the Rotten Tomatoes Tomatometer?	No	BUY	19	65¢	$13	0xfd2f47…
05-09 23:22:56	Will "Mortal Kombat II" score at least 65 on the Rotten Tomatoes Tomatometer?	No	BUY	14	65¢	$9	0xdc5c4c…
05-09 11:27:55	Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by April 30?	No	SELL	200	100¢	$199	0xcbab50…
05-08 00:18:03	Will "The Sheep Detectives" score at least 90 on the Rotten Tomatoes Tomatometer?	Yes	BUY	36	93¢	$33	0xcafe26…
05-07 19:44:52	Will "Mortal Kombat II" score at least 65 on the Rotten Tomatoes Tomatometer?	No	BUY	60	11¢	$7	0xb96f0d…
05-07 17:54:20	Will "The Sheep Detectives" score at least 95 on the Rotten Tomatoes Tomatometer?	Yes	BUY	100	52¢	$52	0xb85f05…
05-07 17:30:30	Will "Mortal Kombat II" score at least 70 on the Rotten Tomatoes Tomatometer?	No	BUY	90	40¢	$36	0x53535f…
05-06 14:04:26	Starmer out by May 15, 2026?	No	BUY	50	92¢	$46	0xc18917…
05-01 21:07:50	Will "The Devil Wears Prada 2" score at least 75 on the Rotten Tomatoes Tomatometer?	Yes	BUY	10	90¢	$9	0xca4430…
04-27 13:30:56	Will "Michael" score at least 40 on the Rotten Tomatoes Tomatometer?	Yes	SELL	190	0¢	$0	0x4098bb…
04-24 18:18:00	Will "Michael" score at least 40 on the Rotten Tomatoes Tomatometer?	Yes	BUY	43	47¢	$20	0x3f2bab…
04-24 18:08:58	Will "Michael" score at least 40 on the Rotten Tomatoes Tomatometer?	Yes	BUY	38	47¢	$18	0x2858fb…
04-24 17:26:18	Will "Michael" score at least 40 on the Rotten Tomatoes Tomatometer?	Yes	BUY	100	47¢	$47	0xd3c168…
04-24 15:55:22	Will "Michael" score at least 40 on the Rotten Tomatoes Tomatometer?	Yes	BUY	9	47¢	$4	0xb2eb40…
04-24 15:39:00	Will the criminal investigation into Jerome Powell be dropped by April 30?	No	SELL	200	0¢	$0	0xbb55a4…
04-24 15:01:56	Will Trump’s approval rating be between 38.5 and 38.9 on April 24, 2026?	No	BUY	120	42¢	$50	0x38bc7c…
04-24 14:57:48	Will Trump’s approval rating be between 38.5 and 38.9 on April 24, 2026?	No	BUY	0	42¢	$0	0xbbeeea…
04-22 14:51:08	Will "Michael" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 100m?	No	BUY	7	89¢	$6	0x06ef4c…
04-21 14:35:50	will donald trump announce that the united states blockade of the strait of hormuz has been lifted by april 23 2026	No	BUY	135	72¢	$97	0xc52e36…
04-21 14:32:30	will donald trump announce that the united states blockade of the strait of hormuz has been lifted by april 23 2026	No	BUY	5	72¢	$4	0xb52afe…
04-17 19:21:30	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?	No	BUY	100	60¢	$60	0x305ed2…
04-17 17:54:50	will trumps approval rating be between 39pt5 and 39pt9 on april 17 2026	Yes	BUY	1	95¢	$1	0xe5bd61…
04-17 17:19:46	will trumps approval rating be between 39pt5 and 39pt9 on april 17 2026	Yes	BUY	7	95¢	$7	0x8972f6…
04-17 17:19:44	will trumps approval rating be between 39pt5 and 39pt9 on april 17 2026	Yes	BUY	9	95¢	$8	0xcab419…
04-17 17:19:42	will trumps approval rating be between 39pt5 and 39pt9 on april 17 2026	Yes	BUY	73	95¢	$70	0xfc717d…
04-17 17:19:42	will trumps approval rating be between 39pt5 and 39pt9 on april 17 2026	Yes	BUY	10	95¢	$10	0x676353…
04-16 13:33:04	will lee cronins the mummy score at least 55 on the rotten tomatoes tomatometer 897 885 432	Yes	BUY	260	70¢	$182	0x5c511d…
04-16 13:32:44	will lee cronins the mummy score at least 55 on the rotten tomatoes tomatometer 897 885 432	Yes	BUY	14	76¢	$10	0x752eae…
04-16 13:31:44	will lee cronins the mummy score at least 55 on the rotten tomatoes tomatometer 897 885 432	Yes	BUY	10	76¢	$8	0x476cfb…
04-16 13:31:36	will lee cronins the mummy score at least 55 on the rotten tomatoes tomatometer 897 885 432	Yes	BUY	10	76¢	$8	0xbb614e…
04-16 13:31:28	will lee cronins the mummy score at least 55 on the rotten tomatoes tomatometer 897 885 432	Yes	BUY	40	76¢	$30	0x27d915…
04-16 13:28:54	will lee cronins the mummy score at least 55 on the rotten tomatoes tomatometer 897 885 432	Yes	BUY	80	76¢	$61	0x6df9c3…
04-16 13:26:38	will lee cronins the mummy score at least 55 on the rotten tomatoes tomatometer 897 885 432	Yes	BUY	26	76¢	$20	0x402f7a…
04-16 10:40:54	will lee cronins the mummy opening weekend box office be between 15m and 20m	Yes	BUY	72	24¢	$17	0xfa287f…
04-16 10:40:54	will lee cronins the mummy opening weekend box office be between 15m and 20m	Yes	BUY	24	24¢	$6	0xd2c57d…
04-16 10:40:54	will lee cronins the mummy opening weekend box office be between 15m and 20m	Yes	BUY	26	24¢	$6	0x9b9f5d…
04-16 09:59:26	will lee cronins the mummy opening weekend box office be between 15m and 20m	Yes	BUY	29	24¢	$7	0x04997d…
04-16 09:59:24	will lee cronins the mummy opening weekend box office be between 15m and 20m	Yes	BUY	48	24¢	$11	0xede958…
04-16 02:22:12	Bank of Japan increases interest rates by 25 bps after the April 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	500	10¢	$50	0xb3d0ce…
04-15 22:04:04	will lee cronins the mummy opening weekend box office be between 15m and 20m	Yes	BUY	20	24¢	$5	0xe820b4…
04-15 20:42:58	will mother mary score at least 70 on the rotten tomatoes tomatometer	Yes	BUY	1	69¢	$1	0x81733e…
04-15 18:12:06	will lee cronins the mummy opening weekend box office be between 15m and 20m	Yes	BUY	1	24¢	$0	0xe37df7…