Wallet — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$104

Unrealized P&L

-$219

Hit rate

51.2%

Resolved

368

Trades

964

lifetime

Volume

$6.98K

lifetime

Avg / trade

Open exposure

$128

15 positions

First seen

2026-08-07

last 10-27 11:22

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 74 days

Categories

Crypto

45% 32% +$226

Politics

42% 19% -$95

Other

14% 22% -$27

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

75 active days in 12wk • peak 83 trades/day

Open positions (15) Resolved markets (24) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?	No	+625	$100	6¢	$34	-$66	10-25 08:18
US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 28?	No	+770	$101	2¢	$15	-$86	10-25 21:22
Next US-Iran senior diplomatic meeting by October 31, 2026? (copy)	Yes	+314	$24	4¢	$13	-$11	10-25 08:19
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31?	Yes	+95	$12	13¢	$12	+$0	10-25 06:28
Will Dilution of Iranian Uranium be in a US-Iran deal in 2026?	Yes	+77	$10	12¢	$10	$0	10-25 06:27
Next White House Press Secretary announced by October 31, 2026?	Yes	+303	$21	3¢	$9	-$12	10-25 17:23
IAEA visits Isfahan, Fordow, or Natanz nuclear site by December 31?	Yes	+62	$10	10¢	$6	-$4	10-25 06:30
US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by October 31?	Yes	+176	$16	4¢	$6	-$10	10-22 11:50
Saudi-Houthi ceasefire agreement announced by October 31?	Yes	+147	$5	3¢	$4	-$1	10-25 19:14
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by October 31?	Yes	+496	$12	1¢	$4	-$9	10-27 11:22
Iran leadership change by October 31?	Yes	+516	$10	1¢	$4	-$6	10-25 19:50
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by October 31, 2026?	Yes	+561	$5	1¢	$4	-$1	10-23 13:28
IAEA visits Isfahan, Fordow, or Natanz nuclear site by October 31?	Yes	+649	$15	1¢	$4	-$11	10-25 06:25
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by October 31, 2026?	Yes	+474	$6	1¢	$3	-$3	10-25 06:31
Israel accuses Iran/proxies of plane stabbing incident by Oct 31?	Yes	+24	$0	2¢	$0	$0	10-22 12:53

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Russia-Ukraine peace talks by September 30, 2026?	22	$401	1,123	1,123	+0	No	-$29	09-25 19:45
russia ukraine peace talks by october 31 2026	7	$299	339	339	+0	open	—	09-23 14:52
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on October 24?	6	$263	598	598	+0	No	+$209	10-24 15:05
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by September 30, 2026?	11	$225	398	398	+0	Yes	+$73	09-22 18:02
Will Bitcoin dip to $76,000 on September 1?	6	$187	444	444	+0	No	+$70	09-01 22:36
trump renames ai by september 30	9	$121	225	225	+0	Yes	+$17	09-27 22:56
Bitcoin Up or Down - September 22, 3PM ET	2	$116	169	169	+0	Down	-$10	09-22 19:28
Russia-Ukraine peace talks by October 15, 2026?	7	$116	218	218	+0	No	-$2	09-22 14:15
Will there be 3 or more North Korea tests in August 2026?	3	$113	81	81	+0	Yes	+$49	08-20 09:34
US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 28?	2	$101	770	0	+770	open	—	10-25 21:22
Bitcoin Up or Down - September 23, 10AM ET	2	$100	113	113	+0	Down	+$6	09-23 14:02
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?	1	$100	625	0	+625	open	—	10-25 08:18
Bitcoin Up or Down - September 22, 4PM ET	2	$92	97	97	+0	Up	-$5	09-22 20:16
Next US-Iran senior diplomatic meeting by October 31, 2026? (copy)	9	$91	452	138	+314	open	—	10-25 08:19
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by October 31?	10	$87	1,040	544	+496	open	—	10-27 11:22
Will Bitcoin dip to $80,000 October 19-25?	4	$85	76	76	+0	Yes	+$55	10-24 14:19
Bitcoin Up or Down - September 22, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET	2	$84	103	103	+0	Down	+$19	09-22 22:02
Bitcoin Up or Down - September 22, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET	3	$81	174	149	+25	Up	-$37	09-22 13:12
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $86,000 on September 25?	3	$81	277	277	+0	No	-$3	09-25 00:17
Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by September 21?	5	$79	171	171	+0	No	+$19	09-15 17:45
Bitcoin Up or Down - September 22, 5PM ET	2	$75	55	55	+0	Down	-$4	09-22 21:54
nato downs another russian drone by august 31 20260726215001931	3	$74	144	89	+56	Yes	+$7	08-20 11:44
Bitcoin Up or Down - September 20, 2PM ET	2	$65	70	70	+0	Down	+$24	09-20 18:51
Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by August 31?	10	$64	155	155	+0	No	-$10	08-26 21:34
Will Iran target an Arab country by September 30, 2026?	3	$64	98	98	+0	Yes	-$20	10-04 13:07
Will the US announce a diesel export ban by September 30?	12	$62	459	459	+0	No	+$3	09-29 08:20
US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 24?	5	$61	915	772	+143	Yes	-$6	10-25 06:59
US strike on Mexico by December 31?	5	$60	251	251	+0	open	—	10-05 22:14
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on September 8?	2	$57	93	93	+0	Yes	-$10	09-08 08:56
Bitcoin Up or Down - September 8, 5PM ET	4	$57	54	54	+0	Up	+$13	09-08 21:51

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
10-27 11:22:23	Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by October 31?	Yes	BUY	403	1¢	$4	0x433fe3…
10-27 11:21:47	US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31?	Yes	SELL	139	3¢	$4	0x9a0ab5…
10-27 10:40:03	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $86,000 on October 30?	Yes	BUY	294	2¢	$6	0xb3c510…
10-27 10:38:54	Trump renames Strait of Hormuz to "Strait of Trump" by December 31?	Yes	SELL	116	5¢	$6	0x2ae170…
10-26 19:40:56	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on October 27?	Yes	BUY	47	7¢	$3	0x987fb0…
10-26 19:39:56	Will Trump speak to Pope Leo XIV by October 31?	Yes	SELL	22	16¢	$4	0x57dd81…
10-25 21:22:47	US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 28?	No	BUY	426	10¢	$43	0xebebc8…
10-25 19:50:20	Iran leadership change by October 31?	Yes	BUY	385	1¢	$5	0xb974c4…
10-25 19:45:56	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on October 26?	No	BUY	256	4¢	$10	0x16b87e…
10-25 19:14:33	Saudi-Houthi ceasefire agreement announced by October 31?	Yes	BUY	147	3¢	$5	0xf23311…
10-25 17:23:30	Next White House Press Secretary announced by October 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	226	4¢	$10	0x0ee78a…
10-25 17:22:24	Will Spencer Pratt be the next White House Press Secretary?	Yes	BUY	277	1¢	$2	0x7e7730…
10-25 15:52:44	Will Trump speak to Pope Leo XIV by October 31?	Yes	BUY	22	4¢	$1	0x104c8f…
10-25 15:43:36	Will Trump speak to Maria Corina Machado by October 31?	Yes	BUY	98	5¢	$5	0xd36006…
10-25 15:16:02	Will the next Russia x Ukraine peace talks take place in Italy by December 31, 2027?	Yes	BUY	111	1¢	$1	0x332845…
10-25 15:15:53	Will the next Russia x Ukraine peace talks take place in Vatican City by December 31, 2027?	Yes	BUY	500	0¢	$1	0x43389c…
10-25 13:39:47	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on October 25?	No	SELL	23	13¢	$3	0x8a4b8f…
10-25 12:15:14	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on October 25?	No	BUY	23	13¢	$3	0x19458a…
10-25 08:19:54	Next US-Iran senior diplomatic meeting by October 31, 2026? (copy)	Yes	BUY	143	7¢	$10	0xa41d85…
10-25 08:18:56	Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?	No	BUY	625	16¢	$100	0x6b7c89…
10-25 06:59:54	US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 24?	No	BUY	143	1¢	$1	0x5aa937…
10-25 06:59:44	US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 22?	No	BUY	333	0¢	$1	0x7152e0…
10-25 06:31:51	Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by October 31?	Yes	BUY	48	2¢	$1	0x2c75d8…
10-25 06:31:02	US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by October 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	349	1¢	$5	0x054270…
10-25 06:30:09	IAEA visits Isfahan, Fordow, or Natanz nuclear site by December 31?	Yes	BUY	62	16¢	$10	0xc2b4d6…
10-25 06:28:47	Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by October 31?	Yes	BUY	19	11¢	$2	0x4b3c37…
10-25 06:28:35	Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by October 31?	Yes	BUY	32	3¢	$1	0x46af6d…
10-25 06:28:27	Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31?	Yes	BUY	95	10¢	$10	0x78b272…
10-25 06:27:20	Will Dilution of Iranian Uranium be in a US-Iran deal in 2026?	Yes	BUY	77	13¢	$10	0x9088c1…
10-25 06:26:50	US reissues Iran oil sanction relief by October 31?	Yes	BUY	112	9¢	$10	0x39f5cf…
10-25 06:26:32	US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31?	Yes	BUY	139	4¢	$5	0x1178a7…
10-25 06:25:09	IAEA visits Isfahan, Fordow, or Natanz nuclear site by October 31?	Yes	BUY	417	1¢	$5	0x988ba2…
10-24 15:41:00	IAEA visits Isfahan, Fordow, or Natanz nuclear site by October 31?	Yes	BUY	88	1¢	$1	0xb819ab…
10-24 15:05:26	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on October 24?	No	SELL	104	56¢	$58	0xd001dc…
10-24 14:27:21	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on October 24?	No	SELL	230	58¢	$134	0xba6d0a…
10-24 14:22:18	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on October 24?	No	BUY	144	1¢	$1	0x520569…
10-24 14:19:09	Will Bitcoin dip to $80,000 October 19-25?	Yes	SELL	6	86¢	$6	0xd51887…
10-24 14:18:36	Will Bitcoin dip to $80,000 October 19-25?	Yes	SELL	40	94¢	$38	0x0ffe19…
10-24 14:18:29	Will Bitcoin dip to $80,000 October 19-25?	Yes	SELL	30	90¢	$27	0x90b59c…
10-24 07:30:29	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on October 24?	No	BUY	228	6¢	$13	0xf2a49b…
10-24 07:20:44	US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 24?	No	SELL	558	3¢	$14	0xb25e80…
10-24 07:12:30	US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 24?	No	BUY	558	3¢	$17	0xe6a059…
10-24 03:17:27	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on October 24?	Yes	BUY	43	2¢	$1	0x59b091…
10-24 01:22:05	US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 24?	No	SELL	214	6¢	$13	0x8c5706…
10-24 00:04:41	Will Iran target Qatar by October 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	18	25¢	$5	0x9a08d7…
10-24 00:03:48	Will a European country take military action on Iran by October 31?	Yes	SELL	58	2¢	$1	0x878505…
10-23 15:02:12	U.S. agrees to a new trade deal with "Mexico" before 2027?	Yes	BUY	28	14¢	$4	0x2938b1…
10-23 15:01:59	Israel military action against Syria by October 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	33	11¢	$4	0x21a4ab…
10-23 14:02:45	Will Bitcoin dip to $80,000 October 19-25?	Yes	BUY	76	20¢	$15	0x30aa5f…
10-23 13:54:23	Will UKMTO publish fewer than 8 notices between October 19-October 25?	No	SELL	40	20¢	$8	0xb97f90…
10-23 13:51:42	Iran leadership change by October 31?	Yes	BUY	43	2¢	$1	0x7c09fa…
10-23 13:51:18	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 23, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET	Down	SELL	7	68¢	$5	0x2be877…
10-23 13:50:39	Will Trump rename an ocean by December 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	83	6¢	$5	0x6ff1d2…
10-23 13:45:54	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 23, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET	Down	BUY	7	50¢	$4	0x2add63…
10-23 13:45:15	U.S. agrees to give Ukraine security guarantee by December 31?	Yes	SELL	68	5¢	$3	0x95f369…
10-23 13:33:24	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on October 24?	No	BUY	105	8¢	$9	0x647da3…
10-23 13:32:44	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on October 24?	Yes	BUY	28	4¢	$1	0x0c2bba…
10-23 13:28:14	Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by October 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	416	1¢	$3	0x2d794d…
10-23 13:24:54	US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 24?	No	BUY	214	7¢	$15	0x3524e1…
10-23 13:21:32	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	42	5¢	$2	0xe12ec1…
10-23 13:19:03	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	42	2¢	$1	0x987269…
10-23 13:17:02	US reissues Iran oil sanction relief by October 31?	Yes	BUY	105	10¢	$10	0xa0e4c2…
10-23 11:24:09	Israel military action against Syria by October 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	33	15¢	$5	0xee84b0…
10-23 10:40:20	Next White House Press Secretary announced by October 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	24	4¢	$1	0x4d314a…
10-23 10:28:09	Trump renames Lake Okeechobee to "Trump Lake" in 2026?	Yes	BUY	37	5¢	$2	0xb40df8…
10-23 10:27:35	Trump renames Strait of Hormuz to "Strait of Trump" by December 31?	Yes	BUY	93	5¢	$5	0xb95a30…
10-23 09:54:35	Trump renames Strait of Hormuz to "Strait of Trump" by December 31?	Yes	BUY	23	4¢	$1	0x12d6b1…
10-23 09:53:30	Will Trump rename an ocean by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	83	12¢	$10	0xd65b09…
10-23 01:01:11	US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 22?	No	BUY	100	2¢	$2	0x4fc686…
10-22 16:02:30	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on October 24?	No	SELL	264	16¢	$44	0xa61381…
10-22 15:55:59	Next US-Iran senior diplomatic meeting by October 31, 2026? (copy)	Yes	BUY	71	7¢	$5	0x9e4db5…
10-22 15:43:42	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on October 22?	Yes	BUY	50	2¢	$1	0xdc21d4…
10-22 12:53:50	Israel accuses Iran/proxies of plane stabbing incident by Oct 31?	Yes	BUY	24	4¢	$1	0x1ce034…
10-22 12:11:11	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $86,000 on October 24?	Yes	BUY	113	2¢	$2	0xa232e1…
10-22 11:52:59	Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by October 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	71	1¢	$1	0xe4bc7d…
10-22 11:52:45	IAEA visits Isfahan, Fordow, or Natanz nuclear site by October 31?	Yes	BUY	59	2¢	$1	0xd4ddf2…
10-22 11:52:32	US reissues Iran oil sanction relief by October 31?	Yes	BUY	10	10¢	$1	0x1cff8a…
10-22 11:51:06	Will a European country take military action on Iran by October 31?	Yes	BUY	58	2¢	$1	0xf23102…
10-22 11:50:48	US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by October 31?	Yes	BUY	122	8¢	$10	0x261031…
10-22 11:48:59	Saudi Arabia military action against Iran by October 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	17	6¢	$1	0x215ca0…
10-22 11:48:27	Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by October 31?	Yes	BUY	31	3¢	$1	0x7dbaa2…
10-22 04:19:29	Will UKMTO publish fewer than 8 notices between October 19-October 25?	No	BUY	40	25¢	$10	0xec8eed…
10-22 02:57:20	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on October 22?	No	SELL	207	20¢	$41	0x8a454e…
10-22 02:54:59	Will Bitcoin dip to $81,000 on October 21?	Yes	SELL	500	0¢	$1	0xdf83da…
10-21 23:14:00	Iran leadership change by October 31?	Yes	BUY	88	3¢	$3	0x3ae365…
10-21 22:51:38	IAEA visits Isfahan, Fordow, or Natanz nuclear site by October 31?	Yes	BUY	53	2¢	$1	0x1cf72e…
10-21 22:50:50	US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by October 31?	Yes	BUY	12	8¢	$1	0x87a729…
10-21 22:24:26	Will Bitcoin dip to $81,000 on October 21?	Yes	BUY	500	0¢	$1	0xaef548…
10-21 22:20:36	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on October 24?	No	BUY	264	2¢	$5	0xb66d98…
10-21 22:20:05	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on October 22?	No	BUY	207	2¢	$5	0x09ab4c…
10-21 22:12:33	Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 21?	No	SELL	408	0¢	$1	0x48b24f…
10-20 20:06:48	U.S. agrees to give Ukraine security guarantee by December 31?	Yes	BUY	68	10¢	$7	0x194a77…
10-20 20:06:35	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on October 21?	Yes	SELL	71	10¢	$7	0xb25b38…
10-20 09:40:45	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on October 21?	Yes	BUY	71	7¢	$5	0x969fea…
10-20 09:38:06	Will Iran sabotage undersea internet cables by October 31?	Yes	SELL	26	3¢	$1	0xa6d93d…
10-20 09:38:00	Russia-Ukraine peace talks by November 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	5	28¢	$1	0x006c11…
10-20 09:37:48	Saudi-Houthi ceasefire agreement announced by October 31?	Yes	SELL	23	4¢	$1	0x4b5a6b…
10-20 09:37:35	U.S. agrees to a new trade deal with "Canada" before 2027?	Yes	SELL	13	7¢	$1	0x23bb75…
10-20 09:37:27	Iran leadership change by October 31?	Yes	SELL	104	2¢	$2	0xcca5b8…
10-20 07:40:14	Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by October 31?	Yes	BUY	43	5¢	$2	0xaaa6bc…