Flamboyant-Disappointment — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$192

Unrealized P&L

+$1

Hit rate

66.3%

Resolved

168

Trades

276

lifetime

Volume

$11.1K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$40

Open exposure

1 position

First seen

2026-03-13

last 06-02 23:48

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 61 days

Categories

Other

81% 26% +$240

Crypto

18% 20% -$6

Sports

0% 17% -$33

Tech

0% 0% -$4

Politics

0% 0% -$4

Pop-Culture

0% 0% -$1

Activity

No trades in the last 84 days (last trade 2026-06-02).

Open positions (1) Resolved markets (30) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will OpenAI have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026?	Yes		-30	-$1	0¢	$-0	+$1	05-24 23:47

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET	7	$861	1,048	548	+500	Up	+$113	05-10 21:18
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from April 27 to April 29, 2026?	3	$818	868	865	+3	Yes	+$321	04-29 01:28
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from May 14 to May 16, 2026?	3	$800	3,108	0	+3,108	No	-$800	05-14 22:29
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from May 14 to May 16, 2026?	2	$760	1,229	0	+1,229	No	-$760	05-15 17:36
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from May 4 to May 6, 2026?	2	$555	425	424	+0	No	+$56	05-06 07:28
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from May 7 to May 9, 2026?	3	$538	594	594	+0	Yes	+$338	05-09 11:26
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from April 30 to May 2, 2026?	2	$523	523	523	+0	Yes	+$23	04-30 20:07
elon musk of tweets april 7 april 14 280 299	3	$498	511	486	+25	Yes	+$497	04-14 17:17
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from May 11 to May 13, 2026?	2	$448	369	369	+0	No	+$148	05-12 10:29
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from May 4 to May 6, 2026?	2	$378	329	329	+0	Yes	+$278	05-06 15:47
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET	3	$352	355	172	+182	Down	-$48	05-11 19:49
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from May 7 to May 9, 2026?	2	$351	424	424	+0	No	-$149	05-09 11:21
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET	3	$325	219	219	+0	Up	+$75	05-13 17:34
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from May 2 to May 4, 2026?	2	$291	197	197	+0	Yes	+$91	05-04 14:36
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from May 9 to May 11, 2026?	2	$267	347	347	+0	No	-$133	05-10 21:11
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from May 9 to May 11, 2026?	2	$249	260	260	+0	Yes	+$149	05-10 21:14
elon musk of tweets april 13 april 15 0 39	3	$191	356	283	+73	No	+$149	04-15 07:10
elon musk of tweets april 16 april 18 65 89	2	$160	103	101	+2	Yes	+$22	04-18 10:19
elon musk of tweets april 18 april 20 40 64	2	$155	130	125	+5	Yes	+$100	04-20 16:41
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from April 25 to April 27, 2026?	2	$126	89	86	+2	Yes	+$49	04-27 15:45
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET	4	$124	157	157	+0	Down	+$24	05-11 19:54
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from May 14 to May 16, 2026?	2	$122	74	74	+0	Yes	+$22	05-16 09:08
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from April 25 to April 27, 2026?	3	$119	10,406	388	+10,019	No	+$36	04-27 15:44
elon musk of tweets march 10 march 17 280 299	4	$103	93	93	+0	Yes	+$49	03-17 15:37
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from April 23 to April 25, 2026?	3	$101	354	337	+17	No	+$58	04-24 11:19
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET	3	$98	136	60	+76	Up	-$11	05-11 20:34
elon musk of tweets april 16 april 18 40 64	3	$95	734	0	+734	No	-$95	04-17 07:19
elon musk of tweets april 20 april 22 40 64	2	$91	74	71	+3	Yes	+$54	04-22 17:22
elon musk of tweets april 17 april 24 180 199	3	$84	171	163	+8	No	+$70	04-24 11:19
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from April 30 to May 2, 2026?	2	$70	670	0	+670	No	-$70	04-29 14:16

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
06-02 23:48:26	Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 4 to June 6, 2026?	Yes	BUY	38	16¢	$6	0xd5b85d…
06-02 23:48:10	Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 4 to June 6, 2026?	Yes	BUY	18	57¢	$10	0x50493f…
06-01 00:11:56	Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 1 to June 3, 2026?	Yes	BUY	44	34¢	$15	0x204dc9…
05-24 23:48:25	Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from May 25 to May 27, 2026?	Yes	BUY	18	40¢	$7	0xa77c40…
05-24 23:48:11	Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from May 23 to May 25, 2026?	Yes	BUY	14	70¢	$10	0x492175…
05-24 23:47:59	Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from May 25 to May 27, 2026?	Yes	BUY	17	12¢	$2	0x138409…
05-24 23:47:41	Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from May 23 to May 25, 2026?	Yes	BUY	50	2¢	$1	0xbffe05…
05-24 23:47:15	Katy Perry confirmed pregnant by June 30?	Yes	SELL	49	2¢	$1	0x65aff5…
05-24 23:47:08	Will OpenAI have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026?	Yes	SELL	30	4¢	$1	0x386083…
05-24 23:47:03	Hantavirus pandemic in 2026?	Yes	SELL	143	5¢	$7	0x18be34…
05-24 23:46:56	Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	SELL	62	17¢	$11	0x30b4f3…
05-21 16:05:23	Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026?	Yes	BUY	44	36¢	$16	0xb620b9…
05-21 16:04:46	Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026?	Yes	BUY	121	3¢	$4	0x86e6c1…
05-21 16:04:07	Will SpaceX's public ticker be $SEX?	Yes	SELL	62	0¢	$0	0x79a58e…
05-21 16:04:04	Will SpaceX's public ticker be $SX?	Yes	SELL	167	0¢	$0	0x2c8a8b…
05-20 16:12:29	Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026?	Yes	BUY	111	4¢	$5	0x3fd828…
05-20 16:12:18	Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026?	Yes	BUY	102	24¢	$25	0x41bad4…
05-16 09:09:17	Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from May 16 to May 18, 2026?	Yes	BUY	114	17¢	$20	0x7f0f88…
05-16 09:08:30	Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from May 14 to May 16, 2026?	Yes	SELL	74	98¢	$72	0x996e15…
05-15 17:41:14	Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from May 14 to May 16, 2026?	Yes	BUY	74	68¢	$50	0x6491f1…
05-15 17:36:08	Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from May 14 to May 16, 2026?	Yes	BUY	12	8¢	$1	0x5e05c8…
05-15 14:40:03	Will Ted Cruz post 100-119 posts from May 8 to May 15, 2026?	Yes	SELL	55	94¢	$52	0x000dd7…
05-15 07:26:54	Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from May 14 to May 16, 2026?	Yes	BUY	1,217	62¢	$759	0x70d21d…
05-14 22:29:28	Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from May 14 to May 16, 2026?	Yes	BUY	1,999	10¢	$200	0x37accf…
05-14 06:51:35	Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from May 14 to May 16, 2026?	Yes	BUY	926	54¢	$500	0x0c004a…
05-13 17:34:54	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET	Up	SELL	219	92¢	$200	0xfc39ec…
05-13 17:33:16	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET	Up	BUY	41	61¢	$25	0x3029ec…
05-13 17:30:32	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET	Up	BUY	178	56¢	$100	0x91e27c…
05-13 17:28:17	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET	Down	BUY	83	6¢	$5	0xb8054d…
05-13 17:24:35	Will Ted Cruz post 120-139 posts from May 5 to May 12, 2026?	Yes	SELL	59	92¢	$54	0xafbcd3…
05-12 11:27:32	Will Ted Cruz post 120-139 posts from May 5 to May 12, 2026?	Yes	BUY	59	17¢	$10	0x8ab5de…
05-12 11:27:13	Will Ted Cruz post 100-119 posts from May 8 to May 15, 2026?	Yes	BUY	55	9¢	$5	0xa6a693…
05-12 11:26:15	Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from May 14 to May 16, 2026?	Yes	BUY	183	55¢	$100	0xfc689e…
05-12 10:29:12	Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from May 11 to May 13, 2026?	Yes	SELL	369	81¢	$298	0x703493…
05-11 20:37:48	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET	Up	BUY	19	16¢	$3	0x7594ff…
05-11 20:36:03	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET	Up	BUY	71	42¢	$30	0x057a06…
05-11 20:34:29	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET	Down	BUY	76	39¢	$30	0xae14b8…
05-11 20:34:23	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET	Up	SELL	60	73¢	$43	0x1236b9…
05-11 20:30:34	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET	Up	BUY	60	41¢	$25	0x638d23…
05-11 19:56:04	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET	Down	BUY	125	20¢	$25	0x46d08c…
05-11 19:54:45	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET	Down	SELL	38	99¢	$37	0xc756c1…
05-11 19:54:29	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET	Down	BUY	38	66¢	$25	0xb20684…
05-11 19:54:03	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET	Up	SELL	119	31¢	$37	0x54608e…
05-11 19:51:34	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET	Up	BUY	119	21¢	$25	0x0f3844…
05-11 19:49:14	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET	Up	BUY	182	55¢	$100	0x3be766…
05-11 19:48:41	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET	Down	SELL	172	88¢	$152	0x4f9dd4…
05-11 19:46:51	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET	Down	BUY	172	58¢	$100	0x62445a…
05-10 21:32:06	Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from May 11 to May 13, 2026?	Yes	BUY	369	41¢	$150	0xb502f9…
05-10 21:30:17	Will Israel win Eurovision 2026?	Yes	BUY	67	4¢	$3	0x3889bf…
05-10 21:29:46	Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	BUY	62	16¢	$10	0x774f3b…
05-10 21:29:40	Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	BUY	89	11¢	$10	0xfb6805…
05-10 21:29:16	Will Drake release Iceman before GTA VI?	No	BUY	77	1¢	$1	0x03de38…
05-10 21:28:43	Hantavirus pandemic in 2026?	Yes	BUY	143	7¢	$10	0x65b255…
05-10 21:27:47	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET	Down	SELL	196	2¢	$4	0x4e6af2…
05-10 21:23:31	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET	Up	BUY	71	7¢	$5	0x1bc25c…
05-10 21:23:05	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET	Down	BUY	196	13¢	$25	0x028c37…
05-10 21:21:13	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET	Up	BUY	29	17¢	$5	0x106d04…
05-10 21:18:41	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET	Down	BUY	500	1¢	$5	0xd84eff…
05-10 21:17:53	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET	Up	SELL	548	89¢	$487	0xba00be…
05-10 21:15:21	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET	Up	BUY	82	69¢	$57	0xec280d…
05-10 21:15:21	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET	Up	BUY	143	70¢	$100	0xdf34f3…
05-10 21:15:21	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET	Up	BUY	152	66¢	$100	0xa3e970…
05-10 21:15:21	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET	Up	BUY	74	65¢	$49	0x7f4aa6…
05-10 21:15:21	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET	Up	BUY	98	65¢	$64	0x6158f2…
05-10 21:14:22	Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from May 9 to May 11, 2026?	Yes	SELL	260	76¢	$199	0xe35ba1…
05-10 21:11:21	Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from May 9 to May 11, 2026?	Yes	SELL	347	19¢	$67	0xc27c41…
05-09 11:26:08	Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from May 7 to May 9, 2026?	Yes	SELL	594	74¢	$438	0x7a9c62…
05-09 11:23:19	MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	33	61¢	$20	0xfb8bad…
05-09 11:21:20	Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from May 7 to May 9, 2026?	Yes	SELL	424	24¢	$101	0x4c9d2e…
05-07 23:14:29	Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from May 9 to May 11, 2026?	Yes	BUY	347	58¢	$200	0x8f5a6f…
05-07 23:14:08	Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from May 9 to May 11, 2026?	Yes	BUY	260	19¢	$50	0xfa6ca5…
05-07 23:13:12	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET	Up	BUY	95	21¢	$20	0x58d80d…
05-07 00:30:38	Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from May 1 to May 8, 2026?	Yes	BUY	124	31¢	$39	0xbe9845…
05-07 00:30:20	Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from May 1 to May 8, 2026?	Yes	BUY	423	1¢	$4	0x63c74e…
05-06 15:49:06	Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from May 7 to May 9, 2026?	Yes	BUY	375	19¢	$70	0xcce51f…
05-06 15:47:58	Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from May 4 to May 6, 2026?	Yes	SELL	329	100¢	$328	0x2f6edd…
05-06 07:28:28	Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from May 4 to May 6, 2026?	Yes	SELL	424	72¢	$306	0x14a1f9…
05-04 19:34:06	Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from May 7 to May 9, 2026?	Yes	BUY	424	59¢	$250	0xa60b4e…
05-04 19:33:38	Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from May 7 to May 9, 2026?	Yes	BUY	219	14¢	$30	0x4375a4…
05-04 14:40:04	Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 20°C or higher on May 5?	Yes	BUY	53	19¢	$10	0xe96e0b…
05-04 14:39:10	Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 66-67°F on May 5?	Yes	BUY	289	0¢	$1	0x661703…
05-04 14:36:50	Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from May 2 to May 4, 2026?	Yes	SELL	197	97¢	$191	0xcca870…
05-03 19:25:08	Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from May 4 to May 6, 2026?	Yes	BUY	425	59¢	$250	0xf8de60…
05-03 19:24:28	Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from May 4 to May 6, 2026?	Yes	BUY	329	15¢	$50	0xc11d68…
05-01 23:45:36	Will SpaceX's public ticker be $SEX?	Yes	BUY	62	2¢	$1	0x16671a…
05-01 23:45:28	Will SpaceX's public ticker be $SPC?	Yes	BUY	500	0¢	$1	0x26f2a2…
05-01 23:44:08	Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from May 2 to May 4, 2026?	Yes	BUY	197	51¢	$100	0x0616e2…
05-01 23:43:40	Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from May 2 to May 4, 2026?	Yes	BUY	320	16¢	$50	0xb81473…
04-30 23:55:24	Will Elon Musk post 1080-1119 tweets in April 2026?	Yes	BUY	110	1¢	$1	0x03704a…
04-30 20:07:48	Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from April 30 to May 2, 2026?	Yes	SELL	523	52¢	$273	0x520470…
04-29 14:17:54	Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from April 30 to May 2, 2026?	Yes	BUY	523	48¢	$250	0x644abf…
04-29 14:16:56	Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from April 30 to May 2, 2026?	Yes	BUY	545	11¢	$60	0x2f4069…
04-29 10:35:32	another critical cloudflare incident by april 30 2026	No	BUY	318	2¢	$5	0x62d2c5…
04-29 09:55:42	Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from April 27 to April 29, 2026?	Yes	BUY	62	16¢	$10	0x7df9c8…
04-29 01:28:48	Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from April 27 to April 29, 2026?	Yes	SELL	865	66¢	$568	0x992529…
04-28 18:28:12	Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from April 30 to May 2, 2026?	Yes	BUY	125	8¢	$10	0x81f03f…
04-28 18:24:14	Will Elon Musk post 1000-1039 tweets in April 2026?	Yes	BUY	381	3¢	$13	0x7af0f1…
04-28 15:50:20	Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from April 27 to April 29, 2026?	Yes	BUY	755	26¢	$200	0x066cc0…
04-27 15:45:18	Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from April 25 to April 27, 2026?	Yes	SELL	86	100¢	$86	0x7f0257…
04-27 15:44:06	Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from April 25 to April 27, 2026?	Yes	BUY	10,000	0¢	$10	0xc03415…