Ugly-Kick — Polymarket

Realized P&L (90d)

-$3

Unrealized P&L

+$7

Hit rate

78.6%

Resolved (90d)

Trades (90d)

36 lifetime

Volume (90d)

$75

$144 lifetime

Avg / trade

Open exposure

$84

1 position

First seen

2026-01-24

last 10-24 04:25

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 17 days

Categories

Other

93% 80% +$12

Politics

4% 80% $0

Crypto

3% 75% -$1

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

3 active days in 12wk • peak 2 trades/day

Open positions (1) Resolved markets (24) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will China’s 2026 annual GDP growth (Y/Y) be between 4.0% and 5.0%?	Yes		+87	$77	97¢	$84	+$7	10-24 04:25

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Will China’s 2026 annual GDP growth (Y/Y) be between 4.0% and 5.0%?	3	$77	87	0	+87	open	—	10-24 04:25
Will China GDP growth in Q2 2026 be between 4.9% and 5.2%?	2	$17	17	0	+17	No	+$0	07-12 14:04
Will China invade Taiwan by September 30, 2026?	2	$11	11	0	+11	No	+$0	06-28 09:15
Will China GDP growth in Q2 2026 be between 4.3% and 4.6%?	2	$7	23	0	+23	Yes	+$16	07-12 14:04
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?	2	$3	9	0	+9	No	-$3	09-13 11:16
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?	2	$3	4	0	+4	Yes	+$1	07-29 14:27
Will Jerome Powell depart as Fed Chair by May 31 2026?	1	$2	22	0	+22	Yes	-$2	05-17 09:28
will there be no change in fed interest rates after the march 2026 meeting	2	$2	2	0	+2	Yes	+$0	03-07 08:08
us x iran ceasefire by march 15	1	$2	2	0	+2	No	+$0	03-07 08:13
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meeting?	2	$2	2	0	+2	Yes	+$0	06-07 10:04
Will China's annual inflation in 2026 be between 0.1% and 0.5%?	1	$2	0	10	-10	open	—	08-22 03:25
Will Bitcoin dip to $30,000 in May?	1	$1	1	0	+1	No	+$0	05-17 10:13
Will China GDP growth in Q2 2026 be less than 4.0%?	1	$1	1	0	+1	No	+$0	06-28 09:16
Will Trump say "Nuclear" during events with Xi Jinping?	1	$1	1	0	+1	No	+$0	05-17 09:38
us x iran ceasefire by april 30	1	$1	1	0	+1	Yes	-$1	04-06 09:44
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-01-24 10:15 UTC	1	$1	2	0	+2	Down	-$1	01-24 10:21
BTC Up/Down 4h · 2026-01-24 09:00 UTC	1	$1	1	0	+1	Down	+$0	01-24 10:48
Will Bitcoin reach $120,000 in May?	1	$1	1	0	+1	No	+$0	05-17 10:13
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 meeting?	1	$1	1	0	+1	Yes	+$0	03-14 09:17
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 22, 2026?	1	$1	1	0	+1	No	+$0	05-17 09:55
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31?	1	$1	1	0	+1	No	+$0	05-17 09:56
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?	1	$1	1	0	+1	No	+$0	05-17 09:46
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026?	1	$1	1	0	+1	No	+$0	05-17 09:41
peoples bank of china rate cut by march 31	1	$1	1	0	+1	No	+$0	03-07 08:02
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30?	1	$1	1	0	+1	No	+$0	04-06 09:46
will china gdp growth in q1 2026 be between 4pt5 and 5pt0	1	$1	1	0	+1	No	-$1	03-07 07:58
Will China GDP growth in Q4 2026 be between 4.0% and 4.3%?	1	$1	1	0	+1	open	—	10-24 04:22

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
10-24 04:25:20	Will China’s 2026 annual GDP growth (Y/Y) be between 4.0% and 5.0%?	Yes	BUY	1	97¢	$1	0x0bec8c…
10-24 04:22:15	Will China GDP growth in Q4 2026 be between 4.0% and 4.3%?	No	BUY	1	97¢	$1	0xe06a28…
09-13 11:16:54	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	5	21¢	$1	0xe8f608…
08-22 03:36:25	Will China’s 2026 annual GDP growth (Y/Y) be between 4.0% and 5.0%?	Yes	BUY	79	89¢	$70	0x35f13a…
08-22 03:25:57	Will China's annual inflation in 2026 be between 0.1% and 0.5%?	Yes	SELL	10	15¢	$2	0x1c3858…
07-31 14:13:06	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	5	43¢	$2	0xc0cb48…
07-29 14:27:57	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	3	75¢	$2	0x28df8d…
07-16 15:20:41	Will China’s 2026 annual GDP growth (Y/Y) be between 4.0% and 5.0%?	Yes	BUY	7	86¢	$6	0x4f986b…
07-12 14:04:38	Will China GDP growth in Q2 2026 be between 4.9% and 5.2%?	No	BUY	16	98¢	$16	0x77eeca…
07-12 14:04:13	Will China GDP growth in Q2 2026 be between 4.3% and 4.6%?	Yes	BUY	17	30¢	$5	0x29ba21…
06-28 09:16:32	Will China GDP growth in Q2 2026 be less than 4.0%?	No	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0xa9eeef…
06-28 09:16:25	Will China GDP growth in Q2 2026 be between 4.9% and 5.2%?	No	BUY	1	98¢	$1	0x3d24cf…
06-28 09:15:58	Will China GDP growth in Q2 2026 be between 4.3% and 4.6%?	Yes	BUY	6	33¢	$2	0xb13e24…
06-28 09:15:10	Will China invade Taiwan by September 30, 2026?	No	BUY	1	97¢	$1	0x2c262f…
06-28 08:56:50	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	1	82¢	$1	0x15ceed…
06-07 10:04:42	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	1	99¢	$1	0x28c489…
05-17 10:13:41	Will Bitcoin dip to $30,000 in May?	No	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0xd3f8e4…
05-17 10:13:28	Will Bitcoin reach $120,000 in May?	No	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0xc47960…
05-17 10:05:17	Will China invade Taiwan by September 30, 2026?	No	BUY	10	96¢	$10	0x6e1f3c…
05-17 09:56:26	Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31?	No	BUY	1	99¢	$1	0x8ff2f7…
05-17 09:55:37	Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 22, 2026?	No	BUY	1	94¢	$1	0x591557…
05-17 09:46:12	Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?	No	BUY	1	83¢	$1	0x03b4e9…
05-17 09:41:08	Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	1	99¢	$1	0x2fcb56…
05-17 09:38:56	Will Trump say "Nuclear" during events with Xi Jinping?	No	BUY	1	97¢	$1	0xd2c3ad…
05-17 09:28:23	Will Jerome Powell depart as Fed Chair by May 31 2026?	No	BUY	22	9¢	$2	0x873a87…
05-17 09:20:39	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	1	98¢	$1	0x6d7dc6…
04-06 09:46:13	Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30?	No	BUY	1	96¢	$1	0x901621…
04-06 09:44:43	us x iran ceasefire by april 30	No	BUY	1	73¢	$1	0x3e5e91…
03-14 09:17:15	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	1	92¢	$1	0x567e12…
03-07 08:13:13	us x iran ceasefire by march 15	No	BUY	2	90¢	$2	0x36e69f…
03-07 08:08:29	will there be no change in fed interest rates after the march 2026 meeting	Yes	BUY	1	99¢	$1	0xaed347…
03-07 08:02:21	peoples bank of china rate cut by march 31	No	BUY	1	87¢	$1	0xb8a569…
03-07 07:58:01	will china gdp growth in q1 2026 be between 4pt5 and 5pt0	Yes	BUY	1	88¢	$1	0xf86fef…
03-07 07:46:29	will there be no change in fed interest rates after the march 2026 meeting	Yes	BUY	1	99¢	$1	0x21e272…
01-24 10:48:54	BTC Up/Down 4h · 2026-01-24 09:00 UTC	Down	BUY	1	69¢	$1	0x04a74e…
01-24 10:21:34	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-01-24 10:15 UTC	Up	BUY	2	60¢	$1	0xdcb62c…