Thoughtful-Ladle — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$7

Unrealized P&L

+$0

Hit rate

97.0%

Resolved

Trades

lifetime

Volume

$4.36K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$132

Open exposure

$54

2 positions

First seen

2026-01-06

last 10-17 08:45

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 21 days

Categories

Other

56% 93% -$13

Crypto

24% 100% +$3

Tech

11% 100% +$3

Politics

8% 80% +$1

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

3 active days in 12wk • peak 2 trades/day

Open positions (2) Resolved markets (27) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by October 31?	No		+47	$47	100¢	$47	+$0	10-17 08:44
Will Yolanda Díaz be the next Prime Minister of Spain?	No		+7	$7	100¢	$7	$0	10-17 08:45

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
will openai have the best ai model at the end of january 2026	2	$488	329	164	+164	No	+$3	01-22 03:48
khamenei of tweets april 7 april 14 2026 50 54	1	$315	316	0	+316	No	+$1	04-14 07:28
bitcoin above 68k on june 4 2026	2	$301	151	151	+0	No	+$1	06-04 09:08
elon musk of tweets february 3 february 10 80 99	1	$300	300	0	+300	No	+$0	02-02 08:50
Will Elon Musk post 500+ tweets from May 5 to May 12, 2026?	1	$300	300	0	+300	No	+$0	05-06 08:32
elon musk of tweets april 17 april 24 580plus	1	$288	288	0	+288	No	+$0	04-20 01:02
elon musk of tweets march 16 march 18 240plus	1	$285	286	0	+286	No	+$1	03-15 04:56
elon musk of tweets march 6 march 13 60 79	1	$285	285	0	+285	No	+$0	03-06 01:39
Will China invade Taiwan by September 30, 2026?	2	$237	119	119	+0	No	+$1	08-14 03:00
will bitcoin reach 100k in july 2026	1	$207	207	0	+207	No	+$0	07-19 11:04
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in May?	1	$157	157	0	+157	No	+$0	05-17 08:58
bitcoin all time high by march 31 2026	1	$147	147	0	+147	No	+$0	03-22 07:19
Solana all time high by June 30, 2026?	1	$132	133	0	+133	No	+$1	06-19 18:19
khamenei of tweets april 10 april 17 2026 10 14	1	$130	130	0	+130	No	+$0	04-17 12:07
ethereum above 2100 on june 5 2026	1	$122	122	0	+122	No	+$0	06-04 05:52
will google have the best ai model at the end of january 2026	1	$120	123	0	+123	Yes	+$3	01-22 03:49
Will Trump visit Pakistan by May 31?	2	$108	55	55	+0	No	-$2	05-22 16:08
donald trump of truth social posts march 17 march 24 200plus	1	$105	105	0	+105	No	+$0	03-22 07:24
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30?	1	$88	89	0	+89	No	+$1	06-19 18:21
khamenei of tweets april 10 april 17 2026 5 9	1	$80	80	0	+80	No	+$0	04-17 12:07
Putin out as President of Russia by September 30, 2026?	1	$50	50	0	+50	No	+$0	09-18 10:55
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by October 31?	1	$47	47	0	+47	open	—	10-17 08:44
will there be another us government shutdown by january 31	1	$20	22	0	+22	Yes	-$20	01-23 13:37
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 meeting?	1	$13	13	0	+13	No	+$0	07-19 11:05
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	1	$12	13	0	+13	No	+$1	05-17 08:55
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on July 31?	1	$9	9	0	+9	No	+$0	07-19 11:05
Will Yolanda Díaz be the next Prime Minister of Spain?	1	$7	7	0	+7	open	—	10-17 08:45
Will Elon Musk post 480-499 tweets from September 18 to September 25, 2026?	1	$6	6	0	+6	No	+$0	09-18 10:56
will bnb dip to 200 in august	1	$6	6	0	+6	No	+$0	08-02 10:24

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
10-17 08:45:21	Will Yolanda Díaz be the next Prime Minister of Spain?	No	BUY	7	100¢	$7	0xd04ecc…
10-17 08:44:42	Will the US confirm that aliens exist by October 31?	No	BUY	47	99¢	$47	0x9da65a…
09-18 10:56:40	Will Elon Musk post 480-499 tweets from September 18 to September 25, 2026?	No	BUY	6	100¢	$6	0xef12f3…
09-18 10:55:51	Putin out as President of Russia by September 30, 2026?	No	BUY	50	100¢	$50	0x6bed91…
08-14 03:00:28	Will China invade Taiwan by September 30, 2026?	No	SELL	119	99¢	$119	0xa9b0cc…
08-02 10:24:17	will bnb dip to 200 in august	No	BUY	6	100¢	$6	0xfa7665…
08-02 10:23:11	Will China invade Taiwan by September 30, 2026?	No	BUY	119	99¢	$118	0xab0783…
07-19 11:05:34	Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 meeting?	No	BUY	13	100¢	$13	0xb12da9…
07-19 11:05:01	Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on July 31?	No	BUY	9	99¢	$9	0xaa5e8e…
07-19 11:04:03	will bitcoin reach 100k in july 2026	No	BUY	207	100¢	$207	0xc36129…
06-19 18:21:40	Putin out as President of Russia by June 30?	No	BUY	89	99¢	$88	0xc11160…
06-19 18:19:55	Solana all time high by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	133	100¢	$132	0x5d33ea…
06-04 09:08:01	bitcoin above 68k on june 4 2026	No	SELL	151	99¢	$151	0x8371d3…
06-04 05:54:36	bitcoin above 68k on june 4 2026	No	BUY	151	99¢	$150	0x994013…
06-04 05:52:49	ethereum above 2100 on june 5 2026	No	BUY	122	100¢	$122	0x79f332…
05-22 16:08:29	Will Trump visit Pakistan by May 31?	No	SELL	55	97¢	$53	0x51d347…
05-17 08:58:24	Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in May?	No	BUY	157	100¢	$157	0x173cba…
05-17 08:55:55	Will Trump visit Pakistan by May 31?	No	BUY	55	99¢	$55	0xbb0192…
05-17 08:55:20	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	13	91¢	$12	0xe861d3…
05-06 08:32:04	Will Elon Musk post 500+ tweets from May 5 to May 12, 2026?	No	BUY	300	100¢	$300	0x625eab…
04-20 01:02:38	elon musk of tweets april 17 april 24 580plus	No	BUY	288	100¢	$288	0xf680ad…
04-17 12:07:36	khamenei of tweets april 10 april 17 2026 10 14	No	BUY	130	100¢	$130	0x00bad5…
04-17 12:07:12	khamenei of tweets april 10 april 17 2026 5 9	No	BUY	80	100¢	$80	0xb1404b…
04-14 07:28:53	khamenei of tweets april 7 april 14 2026 50 54	No	BUY	316	100¢	$315	0x4aeec5…
03-22 07:24:15	donald trump of truth social posts march 17 march 24 200plus	No	BUY	105	100¢	$105	0xbbef5d…
03-22 07:19:13	bitcoin all time high by march 31 2026	No	BUY	147	100¢	$147	0x195036…
03-15 04:56:03	elon musk of tweets march 16 march 18 240plus	No	BUY	286	100¢	$285	0x36d229…
03-06 01:39:01	elon musk of tweets march 6 march 13 60 79	No	BUY	285	100¢	$285	0x63180f…
02-02 08:50:14	elon musk of tweets february 3 february 10 80 99	No	BUY	300	100¢	$300	0xe78adc…
01-23 13:37:14	will there be another us government shutdown by january 31	No	BUY	22	93¢	$20	0xec022a…
01-22 03:49:08	will google have the best ai model at the end of january 2026	Yes	BUY	123	97¢	$120	0x29cf2f…
01-22 03:48:44	will openai have the best ai model at the end of january 2026	No	SELL	164	99¢	$163	0x4cc40a…
01-06 07:07:05	will openai have the best ai model at the end of january 2026	No	BUY	329	99¢	$325	0x870425…