Quarterly-Theory — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$1

Unrealized P&L

+$1

Hit rate

71.5%

Resolved

Trades

207

lifetime

Volume

$611

lifetime

Avg / trade

Open exposure

1 position

First seen

2026-02-01

last 06-09 15:13

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 2 days

Categories

Other

49% 50% $-1

Politics

35% — —

Crypto

12% — —

Pop-Culture

3% — —

Sports

1% — —

Tech

0% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

52 active days in 12wk • peak 5 trades/day

Open positions (1) Resolved markets Recent trades Correlated wallets (8)

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will Hyperliquid reach $100 by December 31, 2026?	No		+5	$3	64¢	$4	+$1	06-04 07:06

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
iran x israelus conflict ends by april 7 346	2	$34	30	30	+0	open	—	04-13 10:23
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?	4	$17	12	12	+0	open	—	05-01 15:18
Will Drake officially release Iceman by March 31, 2026?	2	$16	27	27	+0	open	—	02-22 10:54
si up or down on february 2 2026	2	$16	13	13	+0	open	—	02-02 17:33
houthi strike on israel by march 31 2026	2	$14	8	8	+0	open	—	04-01 07:58
will crude oil cl hit high 90 by end of march 124 949 438 563 647 712 323	2	$14	10	10	+0	open	—	03-06 12:37
US strikes Iran by June 30, 2026?	2	$12	7	7	+0	open	—	02-28 08:17
will bitcoin reach 75000 in february 858 936	2	$12	7	7	+0	open	—	02-24 11:32
Will Trump visit China by May 31?	2	$12	8	8	+0	open	—	04-21 20:01
will uae strike iran by march 31	2	$12	8	8	+0	open	—	03-07 10:21
will bitcoin dip to 60000 in february 694	2	$11	6	6	+0	open	—	02-28 18:00
Will MicroStrategy announce holding 800k+ BTC by December 31, 2026?	2	$11	7	7	+0	open	—	03-09 22:30
will donald trump announce that the united states blockade of the strait of hormuz has been lifted by april 23 2026	2	$10	7	7	+0	open	—	04-22 19:31
will trump talk to vladimir putin in january	1	$10	5,000	0	+5,000	open	—	02-03 11:39
will iran name a successor to khamenei by march 10 468	1	$10	23	0	+23	open	—	03-08 17:50
moltbook ai agent sues a human by feb 28	1	$10	14	0	+14	open	—	02-01 09:37
us strikes iran by february 28 2026 227 967 547 688 589 491 592 418 452 924 384 915 464 672 196 157 993 596 269 535 381 391 471 256 988 997 296 225 762 973 292 827 345 182 558 215 794 879 189 761	1	$10	13	0	+13	open	—	02-20 18:43
ucl fcb1 new 2026 03 18 fcb1	4	$9	6	6	+0	open	—	03-18 19:43
will uk strike iran by march 31	2	$9	5	5	+0	open	—	03-15 21:05
us forces enter iran by march 31 222 191 243 517 878 439 519	2	$8	5	5	+0	open	—	03-29 09:10
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	1	$7	0	7	-7	open	—	06-01 17:21
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	4	$7	10	10	+0	open	—	05-25 17:38
ukraine strikes another tanker in black sea by march 31 2026	2	$7	4	4	+0	open	—	04-01 08:45
epl ast che 2026 03 04 che	2	$7	5	5	+0	open	—	03-04 21:26
spx up or down on march 25 2026	2	$7	4	4	+0	open	—	03-25 20:13
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $755 on May 29?	2	$6	4	4	+0	open	—	05-29 15:37
bun koe dor 2026 03 07 dor	2	$6	4	4	+0	open	—	03-07 18:58
spx up or down on march 9 2026	2	$6	5	5	+0	open	—	03-09 19:23
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on April 29?	2	$6	4	4	+0	open	—	04-29 20:04
epl lee mac 2026 02 28 mac	2	$5	3	3	+0	open	—	02-28 19:35

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
06-09 15:13:40	will a claude mythos model be released by june 9 2026	No	BUY	6	16¢	$1	0x74c379…
06-08 14:48:07	spy closes above 740 on june 8 2026	No	SELL	3	17¢	$0	0x6c524b…
06-08 14:06:39	spy closes above 740 on june 8 2026	No	BUY	3	39¢	$1	0x48c886…
06-07 19:48:00	israel closes its airspace by june 15 687	No	BUY	2	48¢	$1	0x6de5fd…
06-05 14:20:54	spy closes above 750 on june 5 2026	No	BUY	2	47¢	$1	0x664e20…
06-04 07:06:10	Will Hyperliquid reach $100 by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	2	48¢	$1	0x4ebb87…
06-02 18:16:52	S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on June 2?	Up	SELL	3	73¢	$2	0xf913c1…
06-02 13:44:29	S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on June 2?	Up	BUY	3	38¢	$1	0x6954d2…
06-01 17:21:51	MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	No	SELL	7	100¢	$7	0x5d105d…
06-01 13:58:31	S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on June 1?	Down	BUY	4	56¢	$2	0xf5218a…
05-31 11:30:38	Will Hyperliquid reach $100 by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	3	59¢	$2	0x45fb38…
05-30 19:14:32	Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 31, 2026?	No	SELL	3	90¢	$3	0xf01112…
05-29 15:55:15	Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	3	33¢	$1	0x00de6e…
05-29 15:37:58	S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $755 on May 29?	Yes	SELL	4	70¢	$3	0x10153f…
05-29 15:30:30	S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $755 on May 29?	Yes	BUY	4	74¢	$3	0x313d06…
05-29 09:12:37	Trump declassifies new UFO files by June 15?	No	BUY	2	40¢	$1	0x9765d3…
05-28 14:39:47	S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on May 28?	Up	SELL	4	73¢	$3	0xd8df25…
05-28 14:08:26	S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on May 28?	Up	BUY	4	56¢	$2	0x20bb09…
05-28 06:59:50	Will Trump restart Project Freedom by May 31?	No	SELL	4	92¢	$4	0x3ce031…
05-26 15:41:03	S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $750 on May 26?	Yes	SELL	3	46¢	$2	0x5951d6…
05-26 15:08:46	Will Trump restart Project Freedom by May 31?	No	BUY	4	24¢	$1	0x6be476…
05-26 14:57:37	Internet Access restored in Iran by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	4	50¢	$2	0x63beef…
05-26 13:59:15	S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $750 on May 26?	Yes	BUY	3	60¢	$2	0xa97069…
05-25 17:38:27	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	No	SELL	3	64¢	$2	0x9690c8…
05-24 11:00:26	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	3	63¢	$2	0x94ea6f…
05-22 20:34:03	S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $745 on May 22?	Yes	SELL	3	100¢	$3	0x1ce7f4…
05-22 14:00:35	S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $745 on May 22?	Yes	BUY	3	65¢	$2	0xcda71e…
05-21 18:37:46	S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on May 21?	Down	SELL	4	13¢	$1	0x2c9610…
05-21 18:06:51	S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on May 21?	Down	BUY	4	23¢	$1	0x656c48…
05-21 06:30:25	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	6	18¢	$1	0xa94780…
05-20 14:32:35	S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $735 on May 20?	Yes	BUY	3	62¢	$2	0x47e4b1…
05-20 11:38:59	Trump kiss by May 31?	No	BUY	3	31¢	$1	0x830cf0…
05-19 15:29:37	S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $735 on May 19?	No	SELL	3	59¢	$2	0x8927a3…
05-19 15:23:59	S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $735 on May 19?	No	BUY	3	64¢	$2	0x47dd4b…
05-18 15:09:11	S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on May 18?	Down	SELL	3	60¢	$2	0xc30df4…
05-18 15:02:58	S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on May 18?	Down	BUY	3	63¢	$2	0xff9cfc…
05-16 15:52:08	Will Trump say "Dumbocrat" during Bret Baier interview?	No	BUY	4	25¢	$1	0xbb460e…
05-14 05:44:43	Will Trump say "IQ" during events with Xi Jinping?	Yes	BUY	14	7¢	$1	0x70e5c6…
05-14 05:39:50	Will Trump say "Tariff" during events with Xi Jinping?	Yes	BUY	4	55¢	$2	0x69a0a8…
05-11 20:06:57	S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on May 11?	Up	SELL	3	100¢	$3	0xf13813…
05-11 13:46:59	S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on May 11?	Up	BUY	3	66¢	$2	0x7b5e9f…
05-10 11:55:19	Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,900 in May?	Yes	BUY	4	50¢	$2	0x2f14cd…
05-06 10:00:36	Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 22, 2026?	Yes	SELL	6	42¢	$2	0x7b9c01…
05-06 08:51:04	Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair by May 15, 2026?	Yes	BUY	4	25¢	$1	0x197788…
05-06 07:06:06	Will "Covid" be said on ICEMAN?	No	BUY	10	19¢	$2	0x2397b3…
05-04 14:21:16	S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on May 4?	Up	BUY	3	65¢	$2	0xa03d21…
05-02 09:31:18	Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 22, 2026?	Yes	BUY	11	18¢	$2	0x53ee8d…
05-01 15:18:22	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?	No	SELL	6	100¢	$6	0xfbebe0…
05-01 15:13:10	Will Trump say "Nuclear" 3+ times at The Villages on May 1?	No	BUY	2	46¢	$1	0x0e498c…
04-29 20:04:40	S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on April 29?	Down	SELL	4	98¢	$4	0x895f15…
04-29 15:39:34	S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on April 29?	Down	BUY	4	56¢	$2	0xcf26af…
04-28 14:07:32	S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on April 28?	Up	BUY	4	23¢	$1	0x36ff31…
04-28 08:02:58	Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-04-29?	Yes	BUY	5	38¢	$2	0xf602ad…
04-28 05:45:36	Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in April?	Yes	SELL	5	19¢	$1	0x4565cf…
04-26 10:01:52	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	6	31¢	$2	0xa615c4…
04-24 09:45:26	lal bet rea 2026 04 24 rea	Yes	BUY	4	52¢	$2	0x432735…
04-24 09:44:40	Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-04-25?	Yes	BUY	3	60¢	$2	0xd1e1eb…
04-24 09:44:28	Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-04-25?	Yes	BUY	3	59¢	$2	0x2de51a…
04-22 19:31:56	will donald trump announce that the united states blockade of the strait of hormuz has been lifted by april 23 2026	No	SELL	7	93¢	$6	0x3e8fcb…
04-21 20:01:18	Will Trump visit China by May 31?	Yes	SELL	8	78¢	$6	0xd42967…
04-21 06:21:20	will donald trump announce that the united states blockade of the strait of hormuz has been lifted by april 23 2026	No	BUY	7	60¢	$4	0x9b4b0a…
04-20 14:33:04	spx up or down on april 20 2026	Up	BUY	3	36¢	$1	0xd26596…
04-17 10:22:14	Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in April?	Yes	BUY	6	36¢	$2	0x3af90e…
04-14 14:02:19	spx up or down on april 14 2026	Down	BUY	7	15¢	$1	0xb76354…
04-13 17:10:21	spx up or down on april 13 2026	Up	SELL	3	91¢	$3	0xd6885e…
04-13 10:23:51	iran x israelus conflict ends by april 7 346	No	SELL	30	47¢	$14	0x6aa22f…
04-13 08:22:41	spx up or down on april 13 2026	Up	BUY	3	30¢	$1	0x47bdb4…
04-09 16:38:19	spx up or down on april 9 2026	Up	SELL	3	91¢	$3	0x37fc27…
04-09 15:26:53	spx up or down on april 9 2026	Up	BUY	3	58¢	$2	0x27573c…
04-08 17:52:09	iran x israelus conflict ends by april 7 346	No	BUY	30	68¢	$20	0xe0a362…
04-08 13:38:47	Will Leavitt say "Peace Deal" during the next White House press briefing?	Yes	BUY	4	56¢	$2	0x827ad3…
04-08 08:22:41	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?	No	BUY	6	52¢	$3	0x879ab9…
04-07 15:11:47	ucl fcb1 atm1 2026 04 08 fcb1	Yes	BUY	3	64¢	$2	0xfcd3df…
04-07 15:09:29	ucl rma1 bay1 2026 04 07 rma1	Yes	BUY	3	38¢	$1	0xf19afe…
04-07 15:08:45	ucl spo1 ars 2026 04 07 ars	Yes	BUY	4	53¢	$2	0x04327d…
04-01 17:19:53	will trump say bibi or netanyahu during address to the nation	No	BUY	4	75¢	$3	0xb22590…
04-01 13:50:23	spx up or down on april 1 2026	Down	BUY	3	30¢	$1	0x5e9578…
04-01 08:45:41	ukraine strikes another tanker in black sea by march 31 2026	Yes	SELL	4	98¢	$4	0xa30040…
04-01 07:58:33	houthi strike on israel by march 31 2026	No	SELL	8	99¢	$8	0x23cca4…
04-01 06:38:51	ukraine strikes another tanker in black sea by march 31 2026	Yes	BUY	4	71¢	$3	0x32c2e6…
03-31 20:39:11	will turkey qualify for the 2026 fifa world cup	Yes	SELL	4	90¢	$3	0xf97372…
03-30 17:40:57	blast open rotterdam 2026 will a player break something during a game	No	BUY	5	58¢	$3	0x910ff4…
03-30 13:55:41	spx up or down on march 30 2026	Down	SELL	5	40¢	$2	0xe20bbb…
03-30 13:31:07	spx up or down on march 30 2026	Down	BUY	5	20¢	$1	0x2ff869…
03-29 10:26:12	will china gdp growth in q1 2026 be between 4pt5 and 5pt0	Yes	BUY	6	67¢	$4	0xa29819…
03-29 09:10:36	us forces enter iran by march 31 222 191 243 517 878 439 519	No	SELL	5	93¢	$5	0x34cadc…
03-28 16:41:57	fif mex prt 2026 03 28 prt	Yes	BUY	3	52¢	$1	0xe897ee…
03-28 15:58:25	houthi strike on israel by march 31 2026	No	BUY	8	74¢	$6	0xa67c1d…
03-28 15:46:23	Will Trump visit China by May 31?	Yes	BUY	8	75¢	$6	0xbf8402…
03-25 20:13:23	spx up or down on march 25 2026	Up	SELL	4	100¢	$4	0x7665e2…
03-25 14:01:57	spx up or down on march 25 2026	Up	BUY	4	76¢	$3	0x4a9659…
03-24 19:31:11	Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-03-21?	Yes	SELL	3	69¢	$2	0x4a7859…
03-24 18:40:43	spx up or down on march 24 2026	Up	SELL	2	64¢	$1	0x50f165…
03-24 14:57:41	spx up or down on march 24 2026	Up	BUY	2	51¢	$1	0xf0337c…
03-24 14:07:09	will trump say barack hussein obama this week march 29	No	BUY	6	35¢	$2	0x32722a…
03-23 19:58:17	will crude oil cl hit low 85 by end of march 893 949 456 773	Yes	SELL	4	43¢	$2	0xe8813f…
03-23 14:43:21	will crude oil cl hit low 85 by end of march 893 949 456 773	Yes	BUY	4	26¢	$1	0xad369d…
03-23 13:40:59	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?	No	SELL	6	63¢	$4	0xf04d1a…
03-21 14:58:55	will israel launch a major ground offensive in lebanon by march 31	No	BUY	8	24¢	$2	0x8ded89…
03-20 22:33:09	lal rea mad 2026 03 22 rea	Yes	BUY	2	50¢	$1	0x51a8c9…

Wallet	Shared markets	Overlap volume	Overlap trades	Last seen
Hideous-Racer 0xc8ab…6418	86	$13.4M	27,560	06-09 23:21
Firsthand-Eaglet 0x1cdd…e595	83	$369.4K	28,179	06-09 23:42
Monstrous-Dew 0x5b63…11a4	70	$190.8K	1,740	06-09 23:04
Pleasing-Elm 0x4ffe…9f71	70	$8.58K	1,668	06-08 19:10
Known-Use 0x21ff…0d71	67	$473.6K	9,587	06-09 14:56
Faraway-Seaside 0xf0b0…8cab	63	$194.0K	15,816	06-01 04:27
Vacant-Challenge 0x3078…0389	59	$104.9K	15,406	06-10 00:01
Improbable-Entry 0x7e80…631b	57	$74.5K	1,277	06-09 22:31