Quarterly-Theory — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$1

Unrealized P&L

-$0

Hit rate

71.5%

Resolved

Trades

274

lifetime

Volume

$719

lifetime

Avg / trade

Open exposure

1 position

First seen

2026-02-01

last 07-21 15:39

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 2 days

Categories

Other

49% 50% $-1

Politics

33% — —

Crypto

13% — —

Pop-Culture

2% — —

Tech

2% — —

Sports

2% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

58 active days in 12wk • peak 5 trades/day

Open positions (1) Resolved markets Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by December 31?	No		+6	$5	78¢	$5	$-0	07-07 12:47

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
iran x israelus conflict ends by april 7 346	2	$34	30	30	+0	open	—	04-13 10:23
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?	4	$17	12	12	+0	open	—	05-01 15:18
Will Drake officially release Iceman by March 31, 2026?	2	$16	27	27	+0	open	—	02-22 10:54
si up or down on february 2 2026	2	$16	13	13	+0	open	—	02-02 17:33
houthi strike on israel by march 31 2026	2	$14	8	8	+0	open	—	04-01 07:58
will crude oil cl hit high 90 by end of march 124 949 438 563 647 712 323	2	$14	10	10	+0	open	—	03-06 12:37
US strikes Iran by June 30, 2026?	2	$12	7	7	+0	open	—	02-28 08:17
will bitcoin reach 75000 in february 858 936	2	$12	7	7	+0	open	—	02-24 11:32
Will Trump visit China by May 31?	2	$12	8	8	+0	open	—	04-21 20:01
will uae strike iran by march 31	2	$12	8	8	+0	open	—	03-07 10:21
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	2	$12	7	7	+0	open	—	07-02 15:06
will bitcoin dip to 60000 in february 694	2	$11	6	6	+0	open	—	02-28 18:00
Will MicroStrategy announce holding 800k+ BTC by December 31, 2026?	2	$11	7	7	+0	open	—	03-09 22:30
will donald trump announce that the united states blockade of the strait of hormuz has been lifted by april 23 2026	2	$10	7	7	+0	open	—	04-22 19:31
will trump talk to vladimir putin in january	1	$10	5,000	0	+5,000	open	—	02-03 11:39
will iran name a successor to khamenei by march 10 468	1	$10	23	0	+23	open	—	03-08 17:50
moltbook ai agent sues a human by feb 28	1	$10	14	0	+14	open	—	02-01 09:37
us strikes iran by february 28 2026 227 967 547 688 589 491 592 418 452 924 384 915 464 672 196 157 993 596 269 535 381 391 471 256 988 997 296 225 762 973 292 827 345 182 558 215 794 879 189 761	1	$10	13	0	+13	open	—	02-20 18:43
ucl fcb1 new 2026 03 18 fcb1	4	$9	6	6	+0	open	—	03-18 19:43
will uk strike iran by march 31	2	$9	5	5	+0	open	—	03-15 21:05
us forces enter iran by march 31 222 191 243 517 878 439 519	2	$8	5	5	+0	open	—	03-29 09:10
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	1	$7	0	7	-7	open	—	06-01 17:21
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	4	$7	10	10	+0	open	—	05-25 17:38
ukraine strikes another tanker in black sea by march 31 2026	2	$7	4	4	+0	open	—	04-01 08:45
epl ast che 2026 03 04 che	2	$7	5	5	+0	open	—	03-04 21:26
spx up or down on march 25 2026	2	$7	4	4	+0	open	—	03-25 20:13
will ronaldo cry at the world cup 20260604013616610	2	$7	6	6	+0	open	—	07-07 20:04
Will Hyperliquid reach $100 by December 31, 2026?	3	$6	5	5	+0	open	—	07-03 15:26
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $755 on May 29?	2	$6	4	4	+0	open	—	05-29 15:37
bun koe dor 2026 03 07 dor	2	$6	4	4	+0	open	—	03-07 18:58

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
07-21 15:39:21	will bitcoin reach 68k on july 21	Yes	SELL	6	8¢	$0	0xe8bccc…
07-21 14:32:54	will bitcoin reach 68k on july 21	Yes	BUY	6	18¢	$1	0xe659fe…
07-20 13:47:34	spy closes above 750 on july 20 2026	Yes	BUY	4	27¢	$1	0xf68e1d…
07-20 10:04:00	will spacex starship flight test 13 launch by july 23 20260717012542203	Yes	BUY	3	63¢	$2	0x522de1…
07-19 11:33:54	will the next claude opus model be released by july 22 2026	No	BUY	2	64¢	$1	0x2e1fa0…
07-18 20:18:34	will the announcers say golden boot 3 times during the france vs england fifa world cup match 20260716154740622	No	BUY	2	49¢	$1	0x35818c…
07-17 14:46:21	will bitcoin reach 64k on july 17	No	BUY	1	67¢	$1	0xa24e17…
07-17 14:28:40	will bitcoin reach 64k on july 17	No	BUY	2	62¢	$1	0x93a7b7…
07-16 18:44:28	will bitcoin reach 65k on july 16	Yes	SELL	2	15¢	$0	0x894cc8…
07-16 14:59:01	will strc hit 100 by december 31 20260618001621119	Yes	BUY	6	47¢	$3	0x26520e…
07-16 14:56:32	will hood reach 125 in july 2026	Yes	SELL	4	40¢	$2	0x2e9d3a…
07-16 13:59:07	will bitcoin reach 65k on july 16	Yes	BUY	2	49¢	$1	0xf8e80f…
07-15 18:31:35	bx quarterly earnings gaap eps 07 23 2026 1pt33	Yes	BUY	2	42¢	$1	0x332056…
07-15 14:25:47	will bitcoin reach 66k on july 15	No	BUY	2	64¢	$1	0x75f0a7…
07-14 14:36:55	bitcoin above 64k on july 14 2026	Yes	BUY	2	51¢	$1	0x8eb740…
07-13 19:58:04	iran military action against a gulf state on july 12 20260708212322937	Yes	BUY	2	80¢	$2	0x768fd3…
07-13 12:18:56	will the us announce a blockade on iran by july 31 20260622191116912	No	SELL	2	66¢	$1	0x620893…
07-12 10:38:44	will the us announce a blockade on iran by july 31 20260622191116912	No	BUY	2	45¢	$1	0xcaa984…
07-12 09:57:32	will gus a mounted tyrannosaurus rex skeleton sell for at least 30m at auction 20260710183448003	No	BUY	9	11¢	$1	0x3ab741…
07-10 19:53:02	spy closes above 755 on july 10 2026	Yes	SELL	3	60¢	$2	0x440904…
07-10 18:30:17	spy closes above 755 on july 10 2026	Yes	BUY	3	31¢	$1	0x98cd21…
07-10 14:40:17	spy closes above 755 on july 10 2026	Yes	SELL	4	15¢	$1	0x37bba5…
07-10 14:05:10	spy closes above 755 on july 10 2026	Yes	BUY	4	26¢	$1	0x882f87…
07-09 15:33:37	will hood reach 125 in july 2026	Yes	BUY	4	67¢	$3	0xe10a89…
07-09 14:48:53	spy up or down on july 9 2026	Down	SELL	3	19¢	$0	0x1b1a0a…
07-09 14:24:35	spy up or down on july 9 2026	Down	BUY	3	39¢	$1	0x04ab91…
07-08 13:42:10	spx up or down on july 8 2026	Up	BUY	4	28¢	$1	0x3e4924…
07-08 09:12:53	Will Solana dip to $60 by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	6	32¢	$2	0x35b242…
07-07 20:04:52	will ronaldo cry at the world cup 20260604013616610	Yes	SELL	6	100¢	$6	0x2bd693…
07-07 12:47:17	Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by December 31?	No	BUY	6	78¢	$5	0xcbdde3…
07-07 11:12:29	will ronaldo cry at the world cup 20260604013616610	Yes	BUY	6	18¢	$1	0xad7e1d…
07-06 17:33:53	spy closes above 750 on july 6 2026	Yes	SELL	3	56¢	$2	0x733b39…
07-06 14:13:22	spy closes above 750 on july 6 2026	Yes	BUY	3	37¢	$1	0x03d047…
07-05 08:06:14	gpt 5pt6 released by july 8 2026 789	No	SELL	4	75¢	$3	0x6d345a…
07-04 09:27:26	will ansem flip pump by december 31 2026 20260702152126830	Yes	BUY	2	48¢	$1	0x898054…
07-03 15:26:35	Will Hyperliquid reach $100 by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	5	62¢	$3	0xaa1112…
07-02 15:06:32	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	No	SELL	7	100¢	$7	0xf31d68…
07-02 15:06:10	us x iran diplomatic meeting by july 3 2026 20260622191708359	No	SELL	3	99¢	$3	0x713599…
07-02 14:13:37	spy closes above 750 on july 2 2026	Yes	BUY	2	50¢	$1	0xea4f43…
07-02 13:49:25	spy closes above 755 on july 2 2026	Yes	BUY	10	10¢	$1	0x6bdb38…
07-01 12:05:58	will trump say bomb or bomber during tribute to america rally 20260630160620581	No	BUY	2	51¢	$1	0x4b9385…
07-01 12:00:31	will trump say transgender during tribute to america rally 20260630160620564	No	BUY	2	40¢	$1	0x7a1fe1…
07-01 10:57:44	Will Solana dip to $60 by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	6	32¢	$2	0x4eeae3…
07-01 10:12:25	GPT-5.6 released by July 31, 2026?	No	BUY	26	4¢	$1	0x134ad3…
07-01 10:11:07	gpt 5pt6 released by july 8 2026	No	BUY	4	25¢	$1	0x9d0e8b…
06-29 17:29:59	us x iran diplomatic meeting by july 3 2026 20260622191708359	No	BUY	3	63¢	$2	0xac5168…
06-26 10:18:17	bitcoin above 58k on june 26 2026	No	BUY	9	11¢	$1	0x173eab…
06-25 18:58:25	will 60 ships transit the strait of hormuz on any day by june 30 2026	Yes	BUY	3	58¢	$2	0x3be31c…
06-25 12:14:40	bitcoin above 60k on june 25 2026	No	SELL	13	8¢	$1	0x5b2aeb…
06-25 10:57:55	bitcoin above 60k on june 25 2026	No	BUY	13	8¢	$1	0xcb9727…
06-22 14:09:01	spy closes above 750 on june 22 2026	Yes	BUY	2	46¢	$1	0x25643f…
06-19 14:10:08	btc updown 4h 1781870400	Down	BUY	7	15¢	$1	0x6cd0e2…
06-18 19:39:19	will trump say biden or obama 3 times during medal of honor ceremony on june 18 20260618143625478	No	BUY	3	58¢	$2	0x87a490…
06-18 14:24:50	spy closes above 745 on june 18 2026	No	SELL	3	24¢	$1	0xb03aa5…
06-18 13:57:58	spy closes above 745 on june 18 2026	No	BUY	3	58¢	$2	0x19941b…
06-17 17:29:14	will warsh say jerome or powell during june press conference 20260608181156649	No	SELL	2	47¢	$1	0x6ba50f…
06-17 15:17:34	spx up or down on june 17 2026	Down	SELL	2	48¢	$1	0x00b743…
06-17 13:57:44	spx up or down on june 17 2026	Down	BUY	2	46¢	$1	0xefeb09…
06-16 18:31:53	will warsh say jerome or powell during june press conference 20260608181156649	No	BUY	4	24¢	$1	0x2fb6eb…
06-15 19:22:25	spy closes above 755 on june 15 2026	Yes	SELL	3	40¢	$1	0xc4668e…
06-15 15:18:37	US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	3	97¢	$3	0x83646f…
06-15 14:55:39	spy closes above 755 on june 15 2026	Yes	BUY	3	38¢	$1	0xb35dd6…
06-15 09:27:00	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	No	BUY	7	71¢	$5	0x3b2b26…
06-12 19:29:28	israel closes its airspace by june 15 687	No	SELL	2	97¢	$2	0x134230…
06-12 15:54:37	spx up or down on june 12 2026	Up	SELL	2	69¢	$2	0xa1a6e3…
06-12 13:57:16	spx up or down on june 12 2026	Up	BUY	2	44¢	$1	0x3cc9e5…
06-10 11:34:57	Will an Anthropic Claude model score at least 45% on Humanity’s Last Exam?	No	BUY	3	39¢	$1	0x6e8418…
06-09 15:13:40	will a claude mythos model be released by june 9 2026	No	BUY	6	16¢	$1	0x74c379…
06-08 14:48:07	spy closes above 740 on june 8 2026	No	SELL	3	17¢	$0	0x6c524b…
06-08 14:06:39	spy closes above 740 on june 8 2026	No	BUY	3	39¢	$1	0x48c886…
06-07 19:48:00	israel closes its airspace by june 15 687	No	BUY	2	48¢	$1	0x6de5fd…
06-05 14:20:54	spy closes above 750 on june 5 2026	No	BUY	2	47¢	$1	0x664e20…
06-04 07:06:10	Will Hyperliquid reach $100 by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	2	48¢	$1	0x4ebb87…
06-02 18:16:52	S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on June 2?	Up	SELL	3	73¢	$2	0xf913c1…
06-02 13:44:29	S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on June 2?	Up	BUY	3	38¢	$1	0x6954d2…
06-01 17:21:51	MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	No	SELL	7	100¢	$7	0x5d105d…
06-01 13:58:31	S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on June 1?	Down	BUY	4	56¢	$2	0xf5218a…
05-31 11:30:38	Will Hyperliquid reach $100 by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	3	59¢	$2	0x45fb38…
05-30 19:14:32	Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 31, 2026?	No	SELL	3	90¢	$3	0xf01112…
05-29 15:55:15	Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	3	33¢	$1	0x00de6e…
05-29 15:37:58	S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $755 on May 29?	Yes	SELL	4	70¢	$3	0x10153f…
05-29 15:30:30	S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $755 on May 29?	Yes	BUY	4	74¢	$3	0x313d06…
05-29 09:12:37	Trump declassifies new UFO files by June 15?	No	BUY	2	40¢	$1	0x9765d3…
05-28 14:39:47	S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on May 28?	Up	SELL	4	73¢	$3	0xd8df25…
05-28 14:08:26	S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on May 28?	Up	BUY	4	56¢	$2	0x20bb09…
05-28 06:59:50	Will Trump restart Project Freedom by May 31?	No	SELL	4	92¢	$4	0x3ce031…
05-26 15:41:03	S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $750 on May 26?	Yes	SELL	3	46¢	$2	0x5951d6…
05-26 15:08:46	Will Trump restart Project Freedom by May 31?	No	BUY	4	24¢	$1	0x6be476…
05-26 14:57:37	Internet Access restored in Iran by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	4	50¢	$2	0x63beef…
05-26 13:59:15	S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $750 on May 26?	Yes	BUY	3	60¢	$2	0xa97069…
05-25 17:38:27	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	No	SELL	3	64¢	$2	0x9690c8…
05-24 11:00:26	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	3	63¢	$2	0x94ea6f…
05-22 20:34:03	S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $745 on May 22?	Yes	SELL	3	100¢	$3	0x1ce7f4…
05-22 14:00:35	S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $745 on May 22?	Yes	BUY	3	65¢	$2	0xcda71e…
05-21 18:37:46	S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on May 21?	Down	SELL	4	13¢	$1	0x2c9610…
05-21 18:06:51	S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on May 21?	Down	BUY	4	23¢	$1	0x656c48…
05-21 06:30:25	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	6	18¢	$1	0xa94780…
05-20 14:32:35	S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $735 on May 20?	Yes	BUY	3	62¢	$2	0x47e4b1…
05-20 11:38:59	Trump kiss by May 31?	No	BUY	3	31¢	$1	0x830cf0…
05-19 15:29:37	S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $735 on May 19?	No	SELL	3	59¢	$2	0x8927a3…