Short-Convention — Polymarket

Realized P&L (90d)

+$16.9K

Unrealized P&L

-$5

Hit rate

99.5%

Resolved (90d)

9,000

Trades (90d)

18,562

93,209 lifetime

Volume (90d)

$8.24M

$32.1M lifetime

Avg / trade

$344

Open exposure

1 position

First seen

2026-01-01

last 10-29 22:50

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 302 days

Categories

Other

83% 100% +$43,847

Politics

7% 94% +$13,339

Crypto

6% 99% +$8,412

Sports

4% 99% -$7,398

Pop-Culture

0% 95% -$754

Tech

0% 83% +$41

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

85 active days in 12wk • peak 1043 trades/day

Open positions (1) Resolved markets (30) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026?	No		+0	$5	96¢	$0	-$5	05-07 22:53

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	132	$521.5K	341,656	182,325	+159,331	No	+$606	06-04 00:04
Bitcoin Up or Down on October 5?	52	$383.9K	384,313	0	+384,313	Up	+$384	10-08 00:13
will ethereum reach 2250 by december 31 2026 from june 8	3	$374.2K	378,000	0	+378,000	Yes	+$3,780	08-19 21:06
Will Brighton & Hove Albion FC win on 2026-09-13?	2	$304.7K	305,000	0	+305,000	Yes	+$305	09-13 14:54
Will Portugal win on 2026-07-06?	3	$297.7K	298,000	0	+298,000	No	+$298	07-06 21:05
spx opens up or down on august 3 2026	271	$256.5K	256,780	0	+256,780	Up	+$260	08-03 19:31
cbb txtech ala 2026 03 22	2	$245.8K	248,260	248,260	+0	Alabama Crimson Tide	-$2,483	03-21 21:14
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on October 1?	156	$233.1K	233,342	0	+233,342	Up	+$233	10-01 19:13
new stranger things episode released by wednesday	175	$229.3K	142,428	112,570	+29,858	No	+$479	01-08 03:34
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?	216	$215.6K	181,264	52,500	+128,764	Yes	+$5,850	06-17 23:32
Will Norway win on 2026-07-11?	118	$208.3K	208,818	0	+208,818	No	+$522	07-11 23:46
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $85 in May?	34	$204.5K	112,373	93,036	+19,337	No	+$761	06-01 21:23
will wti reach 90 in july 2026 from july 27	2,908	$190.8K	178,988	12,000	+166,988	No	+$199	08-01 18:58
Estudiantes de La Plata vs. CA Newell's Old Boys: O/U 0.5	10	$190.5K	192,004	0	+192,004	Under	+$1,533	09-01 05:16
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,400 on October 22?	9	$182.3K	91,349	91,336	+13	No	+$194	10-22 23:24
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-29?	27	$179.8K	180,000	0	+180,000	No	+$180	06-29 23:16
will crude oil cl hit low 85 by end of march 728 921 637 263	82	$168.6K	104,329	65,000	+39,329	Yes	+$419	03-11 07:13
US forces enter Iran by April 30?	29	$141.4K	96,000	46,000	+50,000	Yes	+$233	04-08 12:58
Will Leylah Fernandez be the 2026 Women’s Wimbledon Winner?	2	$138.3K	138,846	0	+138,846	No	+$561	06-29 17:20
us x iran ceasefire extended by april 22 2026	25	$137.5K	95,768	42,184	+53,584	No	+$217	05-01 00:08
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by September 7?	10	$131.2K	129,413	2,000	+127,413	Yes	+$171	09-15 19:42
Madrid Open: Jakub Mensik vs Alexander Zverev	29	$128.2K	128,510	0	+128,510	Alexander Zverev	+$292	04-29 01:20
will trump talk to xi jinping in march 165	43	$125.8K	63,003	63,003	+0	No	+$32	04-06 16:53
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Arsenal FC end in a draw?	15	$122.5K	122,623	0	+122,623	Yes	+$123	05-30 18:57
us strikes iran by february 28 2026 227 967 547 688 589 491 592 418 452 924 384 915 464 672 196 157 993 596 269 535 381 391 471 256 988 997 296 225 762 973 292 827 345 182 558 215 794 879 189 761	168	$112.0K	72,326	72,326	+0	Yes	+$336	02-28 03:41
col1 foc adp 2026 03 24 total 2pt5	6	$111.0K	111,834	0	+111,834	Over	+$833	03-25 03:08
fifwc esp arg 2026 07 19 goals lionel messi gte1	20	$109.9K	110,000	0	+110,000	No	+$110	07-19 21:31
Will Daniil Medvedev win the 2026 Roland Garros Men's Singles?	2	$108.7K	108,783	0	+108,783	No	+$116	05-26 12:58
atp holmgre oki 2026 03 29	4	$106.0K	106,107	0	+106,107	Yuto Oki	+$107	03-30 11:30
will ronaldo cry at the world cup 20260604013616610	24	$101.9K	101,475	1,475	+100,000	Yes	+$261	07-07 19:53

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
10-29 22:50:31	W75 Toronto: Anastasia Kulikova vs Kajsa Rinaldo Persson	Kajsa Rinaldo Persson	BUY	594	100¢	$594	0x574c51…
10-29 22:40:09	Exact Score: Everton FC 3 - 2 Newcastle United FC?	No	BUY	103	100¢	$103	0xc2b450…
10-29 22:30:19	Will Club Alianza Lima win on 2026-10-29?	No	BUY	267	100¢	$266	0x8452a1…
10-29 22:29:45	Will Club Alianza Lima win on 2026-10-29?	No	BUY	5	100¢	$5	0x11f6de…
10-29 22:28:33	Will Club Alianza Lima win on 2026-10-29?	No	BUY	618	100¢	$618	0x66518b…
10-29 21:52:36	ACF Fiorentina vs. Atalanta BC: O/U 13.5 Total Corners	Under	BUY	2,700	100¢	$2,697	0xc9c5f4…
10-29 21:48:27	ACF Fiorentina vs. Atalanta BC: ACF Fiorentina O/U 4.5 Corners	Over	BUY	249	100¢	$249	0x864ff3…
10-29 21:48:27	ACF Fiorentina vs. Atalanta BC: ACF Fiorentina O/U 4.5 Corners	Over	BUY	193	100¢	$193	0x753b2a…
10-29 21:48:27	ACF Fiorentina vs. Atalanta BC: ACF Fiorentina O/U 4.5 Corners	Over	BUY	250	100¢	$250	0x2055ea…
10-29 21:30:09	CD Guijuelo vs. Real Sporting de Gijón: O/U 3.5	Over	BUY	100	100¢	$100	0x2b4a9b…
10-29 21:28:19	CD Guijuelo vs. Real Sporting de Gijón: O/U 3.5	Over	BUY	20	100¢	$20	0x699c1f…
10-29 21:11:22	Guayaquil: Camilo Ugo Carabelli vs Alex Hernandez	Camilo Ugo Carabelli	BUY	11,488	100¢	$11,476	0x8eafa9…
10-29 21:01:18	CD Guijuelo vs. Real Sporting de Gijón: O/U 3.5	Over	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x25a1b1…
10-29 21:00:13	CD Guijuelo vs. Real Sporting de Gijón: O/U 3.5	Over	BUY	23	100¢	$23	0x500237…
10-29 20:56:48	CD Guijuelo vs. Real Sporting de Gijón: O/U 3.5	Over	BUY	404	100¢	$404	0x26a6d2…
10-29 20:55:21	CD Guijuelo vs. Real Sporting de Gijón: O/U 3.5	Over	BUY	989	100¢	$988	0x803de3…
10-29 20:26:09	Courmayeur: Anna Blinkova vs Katarina Zavatska	Anna Blinkova	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0x23bcc6…
10-29 20:10:36	Guayaquil: Tomas Barrios vs Joaquin Aguilar	Joaquin Aguilar	BUY	100	100¢	$100	0x4227b9…
10-29 20:05:12	Guayaquil: Diego Dedura-Palomero vs Valerio Aboian	Valerio Aboian	BUY	100	100¢	$100	0xb9eb3a…
10-29 20:02:57	Spread: Cusco FC (-2.5)	CD Los Chankas	BUY	5	100¢	$5	0xb56d73…
10-29 20:02:57	Spread: Cusco FC (-4.5)	CD Los Chankas	BUY	5	100¢	$5	0x98f8db…
10-29 20:02:57	Spread: CD Los Chankas (-4.5)	Cusco FC	BUY	5	100¢	$5	0x6a9f6f…
10-29 20:02:57	CD Los Chankas vs. Cusco FC: O/U 2.5	Under	BUY	12	100¢	$12	0x65483e…
10-29 20:02:57	Spread: CD Los Chankas (-1.5)	Cusco FC	BUY	5	100¢	$5	0x58313f…
10-29 19:48:15	Sparta Prague vs. SCU Torreense: O/U 2.5	Over	BUY	1,240	100¢	$1,238	0xfb3742…
10-29 19:46:40	Sparta Prague vs. SCU Torreense: O/U 3.5	Over	BUY	3,003	100¢	$3,000	0xcdc9f3…
10-29 17:45:11	Modern SC vs. El Ahly SC: O/U 0.5	Over	BUY	7,007	100¢	$7,000	0x9da555…
10-29 17:31:08	Will "Remain" win the Alberta independence referendum by 40–60%?	Yes	BUY	1,000	100¢	$999	0x0d73f9…
10-29 17:23:13	Spread: El Ahly SC (-2.5)	Modern SC	BUY	46	100¢	$46	0x370a85…
10-29 17:18:01	Modern SC vs. El Ahly SC: O/U 5.5	Under	BUY	1,000	100¢	$999	0xe6fb12…
10-29 16:55:59	Modern SC vs. El Ahly SC: O/U 5.5	Under	BUY	13	100¢	$13	0xd65763…
10-29 16:52:07	Spread: Al Khaleej Saudi Club (-3.5)	Al Hazem SC	BUY	38	100¢	$38	0xeef540…
10-29 16:48:05	Modern SC vs. El Ahly SC: O/U 2.5	Under	BUY	6	100¢	$6	0x93469e…
10-29 16:47:38	Exact Score: Al Khaleej Saudi Club 5 - 4 Al Hazem SC?	No	BUY	28	100¢	$27	0xbada63…
10-29 16:46:38	Will Mainz 05 win the 2026-27 DFB-Pokal?	No	BUY	240	100¢	$240	0x708a0a…
10-29 16:45:11	Spread: El Ahly SC (-2.5)	Modern SC	BUY	122	100¢	$122	0x26b189…
10-29 16:35:56	Al Khaleej Saudi Club vs. Al Hazem SC: Al Khaleej Saudi Club O/U 5.5	Under	BUY	5	100¢	$5	0x225642…
10-29 16:31:28	Modern SC vs. El Ahly SC: O/U 2.5	Under	BUY	6	100¢	$6	0x66d297…
10-29 16:22:04	Spread: El Ahly SC (-2.5)	Modern SC	BUY	1,142	100¢	$1,141	0xca0127…
10-29 16:21:50	Modern SC vs. El Ahly SC: O/U 2.5	Under	BUY	147	100¢	$147	0xe992a4…
10-29 16:21:43	Will "Remain" win the Alberta independence referendum by 40–60%?	Yes	BUY	1,593	100¢	$1,591	0x08030d…
10-29 16:18:52	Exact Score: Modern SC 0 - 3 El Ahly SC?	No	BUY	20	100¢	$20	0x7de858…
10-29 16:13:53	Exact Score: Modern SC 3 - 1 El Ahly SC?	No	BUY	27	100¢	$27	0x622b8e…
10-29 16:07:26	Modern SC vs. El Ahly SC: O/U 2.5	Under	BUY	64	100¢	$64	0x8883fc…
10-29 16:05:10	Modern SC vs. El Ahly SC: O/U 3.5	Under	BUY	26	100¢	$26	0x6510d3…
10-29 16:03:34	Modern SC vs. El Ahly SC: O/U 2.5	Under	BUY	3	100¢	$3	0xb74308…
10-29 16:03:23	Modern SC vs. El Ahly SC: O/U 2.5	Under	BUY	6	100¢	$6	0xc74123…
10-29 16:03:05	Exact Score: Modern SC 0 - 3 El Ahly SC?	No	BUY	24	100¢	$24	0xc55a2f…
10-29 16:02:23	Modern SC vs. El Ahly SC: O/U 2.5	Under	BUY	84	100¢	$84	0x70ccb8…
10-29 16:00:28	Will Machida Zelvia win on 2026-10-29?	Yes	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0xc2bc1e…
10-29 15:59:44	Modern SC vs. El Ahly SC: O/U 2.5	Under	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0xba367e…
10-29 15:59:43	Modern SC vs. El Ahly SC: O/U 2.5	Under	BUY	365	100¢	$364	0xd7a899…
10-29 15:59:41	Modern SC vs. El Ahly SC: O/U 2.5	Under	BUY	5,049	100¢	$5,044	0xbf7471…
10-29 15:58:58	Will Modern SC vs. El Ahly SC end in a draw?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x4880ec…
10-29 15:58:50	Exact Score: Modern SC 0 - 3 El Ahly SC?	No	BUY	5	100¢	$5	0xcb95e4…
10-29 15:58:50	Exact Score: Modern SC 1 - 3 El Ahly SC?	No	BUY	150	100¢	$150	0x410f06…
10-29 15:58:49	Modern SC vs. El Ahly SC: O/U 3.5	Under	BUY	258	100¢	$258	0xf72b68…
10-29 15:58:49	Spread: El Ahly SC (-2.5)	Modern SC	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0xbd3b53…
10-29 15:58:49	Spread: El Ahly SC (-4.5)	Modern SC	BUY	5	100¢	$5	0xb254a6…
10-29 15:58:49	Spread: Modern SC (-1.5)	El Ahly SC	BUY	206	100¢	$206	0x791416…
10-29 15:58:47	Will Modern SC vs. El Ahly SC end in a draw?	No	BUY	50	100¢	$50	0xae360e…
10-29 15:47:07	Will Shanghai Shenhua FC win on 2026-10-29?	No	BUY	6	100¢	$6	0x4efad2…
10-29 15:36:55	Will Machida Zelvia win on 2026-10-29?	Yes	BUY	12	100¢	$12	0x4b0d04…
10-29 15:30:43	Shanghai Shenhua FC vs. Machida Zelvia: O/U 3.5	Under	BUY	33	100¢	$33	0x3a25b6…
10-29 15:29:49	Tai Po FC vs. BG Pathum United: BG Pathum United O/U 3.5	Under	BUY	300	100¢	$300	0x1126fa…
10-29 15:19:59	Phnom Penh Crown FC vs. Kitchee: O/U 1.5	Over	BUY	4	100¢	$4	0x8761c0…
10-29 15:19:41	Will Machida Zelvia win on 2026-10-29?	Yes	BUY	5	100¢	$5	0x61e131…
10-29 15:00:55	Phnom Penh Crown FC vs. Kitchee: O/U 1.5	Over	BUY	164	100¢	$163	0x376684…
10-29 14:56:40	Shanghai Shenhua FC vs. Machida Zelvia: O/U 3.5	Under	BUY	44	100¢	$43	0x2b213d…
10-29 14:54:28	Will Machida Zelvia win on 2026-10-29?	Yes	BUY	2	100¢	$2	0xe91c75…
10-29 14:50:28	Spread: BG Pathum United (-1.5)	BG Pathum United	BUY	274	100¢	$274	0x5c3d44…
10-29 14:41:02	Will Machida Zelvia win on 2026-10-29?	Yes	BUY	32	100¢	$32	0xdbfd48…
10-29 14:34:43	Phnom Penh Crown FC vs. Kitchee: O/U 1.5	Over	BUY	4	100¢	$4	0x6b5365…
10-29 14:32:40	Exact Score: Shanghai Shenhua FC 0 - 3 Machida Zelvia?	No	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0x5ea657…
10-29 14:31:02	Phnom Penh Crown FC vs. Kitchee: O/U 1.5	Over	BUY	32	100¢	$32	0x7f2bdf…
10-29 14:29:43	Will Machida Zelvia win on 2026-10-29?	Yes	BUY	20	100¢	$20	0x529fbb…
10-29 14:29:20	Will Machida Zelvia win on 2026-10-29?	Yes	BUY	90	100¢	$90	0xa58c85…
10-29 14:28:17	Shanghai Shenhua FC vs. Machida Zelvia: O/U 3.5	Under	BUY	206	100¢	$206	0xcfd162…
10-29 14:28:05	Phnom Penh Crown FC vs. Kitchee: O/U 2.5	Under	BUY	217	100¢	$217	0x48c8bc…
10-29 14:27:44	Phnom Penh Crown FC vs. Kitchee: O/U 1.5	Over	BUY	54	100¢	$54	0xaa493e…
10-29 14:27:43	Shanghai Shenhua FC vs. Machida Zelvia: O/U 3.5	Under	BUY	4	100¢	$4	0x372ba1…
10-29 14:26:43	Will Machida Zelvia win on 2026-10-29?	Yes	BUY	5	100¢	$5	0x98a57d…
10-29 14:26:13	Will Machida Zelvia win on 2026-10-29?	Yes	BUY	11	100¢	$11	0xcaaa8f…
10-29 14:25:07	Shanghai Shenhua FC vs. Machida Zelvia: O/U 3.5	Under	BUY	15	100¢	$15	0xc737b8…
10-29 14:24:13	Shanghai Shenhua FC vs. Machida Zelvia: O/U 3.5	Under	BUY	14	100¢	$14	0x05f8bb…
10-29 14:20:29	Will Machida Zelvia win on 2026-10-29?	Yes	BUY	35	100¢	$35	0x368e39…
10-29 14:20:16	Exact Score: Tai Po FC 2 - 4 BG Pathum United?	No	BUY	7	100¢	$7	0xc8584e…
10-29 14:19:47	Will Machida Zelvia win on 2026-10-29?	Yes	BUY	4,414	100¢	$4,410	0x299c07…
10-29 14:18:53	Will Machida Zelvia win on 2026-10-29?	Yes	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0x4c8e9b…
10-29 14:17:40	Will Machida Zelvia win on 2026-10-29?	Yes	BUY	100	100¢	$100	0xd7fda5…
10-29 14:16:04	Phnom Penh Crown FC vs. Kitchee: O/U 2.5	Under	BUY	74	100¢	$74	0xb592d8…
10-29 14:16:02	Will Machida Zelvia win on 2026-10-29?	Yes	BUY	150	100¢	$150	0x0567e0…
10-29 14:16:01	Will Machida Zelvia win on 2026-10-29?	Yes	BUY	51	100¢	$51	0x6c4899…
10-29 14:15:25	Will Machida Zelvia win on 2026-10-29?	Yes	BUY	67	100¢	$67	0xdd120b…
10-29 14:15:23	Shanghai Shenhua FC vs. Machida Zelvia: O/U 3.5	Under	BUY	4	100¢	$4	0x7863c8…
10-29 14:14:56	Phnom Penh Crown FC vs. Kitchee: O/U 2.5	Under	BUY	35	100¢	$35	0x3882cc…
10-29 14:14:46	Phnom Penh Crown FC vs. Kitchee: O/U 2.5	Under	BUY	644	100¢	$643	0x08dc70…
10-29 14:14:38	Phnom Penh Crown FC vs. Kitchee: O/U 1.5	Over	BUY	3	100¢	$3	0x689c1c…
10-29 14:13:46	Will Machida Zelvia win on 2026-10-29?	Yes	BUY	3	100¢	$3	0xcf0718…
10-29 14:12:46	Shanghai Shenhua FC vs. Machida Zelvia: O/U 3.5	Under	BUY	21	100¢	$21	0xc06c67…